减半倒计时7天 能否巧妙运用数据「见微知著」?

币圈资讯 阅读:32 2024-04-22 03:09:54 评论:0
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BTC 至今已经经历了 3 次减半,也将于 7 天后迎来其第 4 次减半。

为了迎接这一关键时刻,专注打造数据基础设施的 OKLink 浏览器早已为关注数据分析的 Web3 爱好者们准备了丰富而详细的「减半」专题。

https://www.oklink.com/zh-hans/btc-halving

目前 OKLink 已上线 44 个主流区块链浏览器,解析 200+ 条链,并充分结合用户需求,上线 Dencun 坎昆升级、铭文浏览器等专题页面,大大节省用户查找搜集数据的时间,让所有用户在享受数据的广度与深度的同时如虎添翼,更方便快捷地获取所需要的数据。

围绕 BTC 减半,有“区块链真相派”称号的媒体蜂巢财经抛出疑问?️:用数据「刻舟求剑」还灵不灵?同时表示:市场在变化,“规律”貌似不灵了,但比特币链上数据仍然草蛇灰线般预埋着未来,不仅关乎价格,还有奖励减半后比特币生态将去往何方。

  观察一:第三次减半周期内出现「三顶」 

OKLink 的“比特币减半专题页” 挖掘到的价格走势历史数据显示,2009 年 1 月至 2012 年 11 月这四年多里,BTC 的价格最高才约 23 美元,这个周期内,比特币最初的区块奖励为 50 BTC。

比特币持有者们对“减半”与价格规律的摸索也正始于 2012 年 11 月 28 日——比特币网络首次执行区块奖励减半的规则,每区块产量也降至 25 BTC,1 年后即 2013 年 12 月 1 日,BTC 的价格达到 1127 美元新高,是上一次最高点的 47.25 倍。

“减半后次年会创新高”的认知在此后 2016 年 7 月 9 日的第二次减半的次年得到加深。

2020 年 5 月 11 日,第三次减半结束。当人们认为次年即 2021 年 11 月 10 日 BTC 登上 67145 美元就是最高点、又一次“验证规律”时,谁都没想的事发生了—— 2024 年 3 月 14 日,BTC 创下了 73737 美元的新高记录。此时,比特币网络距离减半还有一个多月。

  观察二:激励渐少 未来价值支撑靠什么? 

庞大的持有者、交易者是比特币生态用户中体量最大的群体,OKLink 比特币浏览器显示,截至 4 月 12 日 17 时 30 分,BTC 持有地址数达到了 54,047,862 个,其中,活跃地址数为 726,995 个,24 小时链上交易量达 693.00K BTC。

除了持有者、交易者外,维护比特币网络运行的矿工们也是生态人群的重要组成部分。如果比特币减半对于市场交易者来说是利好,对于矿工来说就不那么美好了,因为区块产量的减半意味着他们从每区块中获得的奖励减少。

这样的现实下,矿工们需要重新计算“挖矿”即维护网络的投入产出比,也就是挖掘 BTC 带来的收入能否覆盖甚至高于投入成本(矿机算力、电力、维护等)。

对于比特币矿工来说,收入主要是区块奖励,其次是链上交易产生的手续费,OKLink "比特币减半专题页”的矿工收入数据明示了矿工的收入结构。

  观察三:生态新应用“铭文”的早期发迹  

这种基于 Ordinals 协议 在比特币网络上发行的代币——包括同质化的 BRC-20 代币和非同质化的 Ordinals NFT,最早的创建行为发生在 2023 年 3 月,并在 5 月份风靡于“打铭文”用户群中。而比特币网络上的铭文协议也逐渐丰富,Atomicals、Stamp 协议在用户群里各有拥趸。

OKLink比特币浏览器收录全网铭文协议数据

OKLink 浏览器集合了全网所有铭文协议数据,该工具显示,截至 4 月 12 日,比特币网络上的 BRC-20 格式的铭文代币共计 87653 个,Ordinals NFT 有 3313 个;SRC-20 铭文代币总数次之,为 1013 个;ARC-20 铭文代币为 384 个。

大量的铭文代币在比特币网络中创建,也促成了大规模的链上交易行为,进而为矿工带去了近乎与挖矿奖励相当的手续费收入。而随着类似 Ordinals 协议的增加,铭文应用的用户不仅贡献了比特币链上交易手续费,还丰富了比特币的交易类型。

随着市场的扩大,循着“比特币减半”历史“刻舟求剑”准确的价格并不靠谱,但利用好 OKLink 这样的 Web3 数据工具,将为价值关注者发掘比特币采用的进展,在那些随着时间而变化的持币地址数、链上交易量、网络节点数、链上交易类型等数据中,埋着比特币的历史,记录着现在,也暗藏着未来。


So far, it has been halved twice, and it will be halved for the second time in the next day. In order to meet this critical moment, the browser dedicated to building data infrastructure has already prepared a rich and detailed halving topic for fans who are concerned about data analysis. At present, a mainstream blockchain browser has been launched, and Cancun has been launched to upgrade the inscription browser and other special pages in full combination with user needs, which greatly saves users the time to find and collect data, so that all users can enjoy the breadth and depth of data, such as It is more convenient and faster to get the needed data. Focusing on halving the media with the title of blockchain truth school, Honeycomb Finance throws questions. It also means that the market seems to be ineffective in changing laws, but the data on the bitcoin chain is still embedded like a gray line. The future is not only related to the price but also the reward. Where will the bitcoin ecology go after halving? The historical data of the price trend excavated by the third halving cycle shows the year and month. The highest price in these four years is about US dollars. During this period, the initial block reward of Bitcoin was the exploration of the halving and price law by Bitcoin holders. It also began when the bitcoin network first implemented the rule of halving the block reward. The output of each block also fell to the next year, that is, the price of the month and day reached a new high of US dollars, which was twice as high as the previous peak. After halving, the cognition that the second halving would be a new high in the following year was deepened, and the third halving ended on the month and day. Scientists think that the next year, that is, the year, month, day, when the law was verified again, something that no one expected happened. At this time, the distance of Bitcoin network was halved, and there was still more than one month to observe. 2. The incentive was decreasing, and the future value was supported by what huge holders. Traders were the largest group of Bitcoin ecological users. Bitcoin browsers showed that the number of holding addresses reached 10 by the end of the month, and the number of active addresses reached hours, except for the holders. Miners who maintain the operation of bitcoin network outside traders are also an important part of the ecological population. If halving bitcoin is good for market traders, it will not be so good for miners, because halving the output of blocks means that the rewards they get from each block are reduced. In this reality, miners need to recalculate the input-output ratio of mining, that is, whether the income from mining can cover or even exceed the input cost, mining machine computing power maintenance and so on. For coin miners, the income is mainly the block reward, followed by the handling fee generated by online transactions. The data of miners' income on the topic page of Bitcoin halved clearly shows the miners' income structure. Observation on the early development of new ecological application inscriptions. This kind of tokens issued on the bitcoin network based on protocols includes homogeneous tokens and non-homogeneous tokens. The earliest creation behavior took place in June and became popular among the inscription users, and the inscription protocols on the bitcoin network gradually enriched. There are different protocols in the user groups. Fans of Bitcoin browser include all the inscription protocol data of the whole network. The browser collects all the inscription protocol data of the whole network. This tool shows that there are a total of inscription tokens in the format on the Bitcoin network as of March, followed by an inscription token. The creation of a large number of inscription tokens in the Bitcoin network has also contributed to large-scale online trading behavior, which has brought miners nearly the same fee income as mining rewards. With the increase of similar agreements, users of inscription applications not only pay tribute. The transaction fee on the bitcoin chain has also enriched the transaction types of bitcoin. With the expansion of the market, it is not reliable to follow the history of bitcoin halving and seek the exact price. However, making good use of such data tools will explore the progress of bitcoin adoption for value followers. The historical records of bitcoin are buried in the data such as the number of addresses, the number of transactions on the chain, the number of network nodes and the transaction types on the chain that change with time, and the present and the future are hidden. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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