铭文市场的逻辑分析与未来走向展望
作者：0xDoreen 来源：X，@0xDoreen
回想起来 23年10月-11月的铭文这一波，聪明的大割们，用简单方式，最低的开发成本，做成了很多项目方花很多钱都没有做到的事。
10月的铭文火是虚火，因为资产打完好久不出交易市场，大家都在 OTC 里面交易，实际上交易量很小。大部分打到的用户因为担心资金安全（OTC 中间人跑路），或者怀着 23 年 5月份铭文逻辑的美好预期，选择持币不交易。
对于做盘大哥来说，实际上控盘成本低的可怕。
这里面有聪明的项目方，比如某 L2 就利用铭文的热度，快速在一个月内完成铭文资产发售->发链->上CEX->质押的流程。
更多的项目方，只是站着看着铭文这一波，但是想不明白自己怎么从里面赚钱。
铭文第一波，是小钱带动大钱；
铭文第二波，是 BN 拉 ordi stats 带来的；
如果铭文有第三波，逻辑可能是：
第一种，回归第一波的玩法，再搞小圈子的叙事，向外扩散，最近3月份抄的 rune 就是这个逻辑；这个方式还是会比较慢，但是不可能跟 23年初时候一样了，毕竟关注的人多了，人都被教育的明明白白，只要是个新协议，就条件反射会去关注，然后做筛选。
第二种，23年10月，第二波逻辑的极速模式，更快的往上冲，更快的往下降。这个大逻辑其实有点像 动物园 meme 行情 ，一个币火不过 72 小时，整个行情在 4-5周结束。从刻舟求剑的角度来说，这个行情最可能出现的时间是 25年初。
从周期角度看，24年上半年是最好的发币时间，25年初是最差的发币时间，除非你想让无数人问候你家亲戚。
The source of the author recalls the inscription of the month of the year. This wave of clever people did things that many project parties did not do with a lot of money in a simple way at the lowest development cost. The inscription fire of the month was a virtual fire because the assets were not traded in the trading market for a long time. In fact, the transaction volume was very small, and most of the users who hit it chose to hold the money without trading because they were worried about the safety of funds or with the good expectation of the inscription logic of the month of the year. For the big brother, it actually controlled the disk cost. It's terrible that there are smart project parties, for example, someone who uses the heat of inscriptions to quickly complete the process of pledge on the chain of inscription assets within one month. More project parties just stand and look at this wave of inscriptions, but can't figure out how they can make money from it. The first wave of inscriptions is small money driving big money, and the second wave of inscriptions is brought by pulling. If there is a third wave of logic in inscriptions, it may be the first way to return to the first wave and then spread the narrative of small circles. This is the logic that has been copied in recent months. This method will still be slower, but it can't be the same as it was at the beginning of the year. After all, more people are concerned, and everyone is educated clearly. As long as it is a new agreement, the conditioned reflex will pay attention and then filter it. The extreme speed mode of the second wave of logic in the second month of the year will go up faster and go down faster. This big logic is actually a bit like the zoo market. From the perspective of carving a boat and seeking a sword at the end of the week, the most likely time for this market to appear is the beginning of the year. From the perspective of cycle, the first half of the year is the best time to send coins unless you want 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台
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