为什么这波牛市还没出现爆款链游？

在 2024 香港 WEB3 嘉年华呆了快一周，被各种会和面基塞得满满当当的，羡慕那些一天能赶七八场的牛人们，我基本三四场就已经进入脸盲的状态，现在飞机上还是有点晕晕的。

飞行模式下是最好的梳理思路的时间点，这次 W Labs 联合了 COMBO 一起做了个链游专场 Game House 活动，本来想着在自己的场可以说的长一些，没想到在台上摇头晃脑地刚起了头，主持的小伙伴就不断地指着手表提示已经 5 分钟了，嗯？我热身活动都还没做完呢，就这么被结束了？哈哈哈，好在本瓜还有文字输出这种 Buff 技能，就把起了个开头的，没说完的思考写下来，供瓜友们参考。 

第一个问题：WEB3 游戏赛道是否已经被证伪？

这次除了瓜田自己办的活动，带着小伙伴们还参加了几个 Panel，大家依然对于链游赛道的未来是否有前景还在纠结，因为这轮牛市截止到现在，依然没有跑出一个现象级的类似上轮牛市中 Axie 和 StepN 的链游。

但是我的观点依然没有变：如果你看好 WEB3，那就坚定看多 WEB3 游戏吧，历史已经证明了游戏是一个新兴产业进入到应用层（ C 端）的入门基石。

比如计算机产业的发展靠的是芯片的升级。而过去 50 年中，对于计算机芯片最重要的推动因素，没有之一，就是游戏产业。50 年前，Atari 雅达利游戏机的普及，吃豆人 PACMAN 的游戏风靡全球，直接带动了芯片产业开始破茧而出，那时乔布斯都在雅达利打着人生的唯一一次工。

再比如这几年的英伟达，AI 大潮下成为了全球最秀的高科技靓仔，但是英伟达最早就是做游戏显卡 GPU 的，是全球硬核游戏玩家口袋里的钱贡献了英伟达最早期的现金流。

游戏就是普罗大众寻求开心和刺激的道具，得 C 端者必先得游戏。

第二个问题：那么为什么 WEB3 游戏现在还没发展起来？

答案很简单：太早了+走偏了。

如果不考虑 2017 年出来的加密猫 Crypto Kitty，真正链游开始形成集群效应就是从 2021 年初大火的 Axie 开始，这才发展几年时间呢，太短了。我们先看下电子游戏的前两个阶段的转型和迭代过程。

第一次转型：25 年前，从雅达利和日本红白机的卖硬件转型成卖软件，因为个人电脑普及了。 端游开始红火，从买游戏软件付费到后来的电脑端的网游点卡或者时间付费，类似 Steam 转做分发的都赚大发了。

第二次转型：15 年前，移动端手机和 Pad 开始普及，不需要很重的电脑了，大家开始免费游戏，付费游玩。如果再用端游那种一次性购买的模式，又落伍了， 服务型游戏（ Game-as-a-Service，简称 GaaS ）转变成移动端游戏的主流商业模型。

第二次转型其实对于整个行业发展模式有很大的变化：比如人员的成本。端游上线，卖完软体就开始慢慢裁员了。而手游是要不断开发的，人员成本需要不断增加，同时还需要不断增加客服人员，不断刺激玩家继续付费。再比如更多的休闲游戏和 5 分钟游戏跑出来了，因为大家拿着手机，都是碎片时间，打打玩玩或者一局 5 分钟就很适合。

 那未来的第三次转型可能是什么？ 有公司押宝元宇宙的，Facebook 还改名成了 Meta。元宇宙很好，大家都看过《头号玩家》，热血沸腾，但是需要烧好多好多钱的，还有基础建设必须继续提高，比如很多玩家戴着普通 VR 头会晕，现在 Apple VR 听说能解决这个问题。

在我看来目前还在早期的 WEB3 游戏也可能会是一个方向。大家有想过没,就终极目标来看，WEB3 游戏和 WEB2 游戏最大的区别会是什么？如果在游戏可玩性，在进入门槛，在项目运营和人才储备等统统提高到同一个水平线后，还存在的区别是什么？对了，就是流通和支付！

WEB3 游戏就是必须要结合到 WEB3 的最大特性，就是支付和交易的便捷性可以提高。就是不管游戏内的支付还是游戏外的支付，可以丝滑的操作就好，而不必涉及到各种分发平台上里关于各国家和地区严格的限制。Meta 肯定也是想到了这点，但是他家的稳定币 Libra 很快就胎死腹中，可能触及到了太多的外部利益吧，Libra 死了，但是 Libra 团队想着要暴富啊，于是才有了 Sui 和 Aptos。

之前说的目前 WEB3 游戏走偏了，是因为第一个爆款链游 Axie 给了大家一个 Play to Earn 的范式，所以大家都认为链游仿佛只能 Play to Earn，于是基本所有项目都在抄 Axie 的模式，因为毕竟 Axie 赚大钱了。有时我一直在琢磨如果第一个爆款链游是一个休闲类棋牌对战游戏，是个偏向流通和支付更近一些的项目， WEB3 游戏赛道目前的情况会不会更健康一些？

但是走偏了总比不走好，一个大趋势的开始是赤裸裸的 Earn 很正常，比如大航海时代的开始能吸引那么航海家冒险去做海贼王，不是因为大家还坚持想着贸易致富（找到印度和中国去走私香料和丝绸），而是碰巧在南美发现了大银矿以及暴利的人口贩卖，需要有着第一波能足够吸引眼球的利润摆在那里。

未来更大的造富效应会引导着更多的团队向着流通和支付这个方向去演变，所以我坚信真正的 WEB3 游戏的牛市还未到来。目前青黄不接的情况对于还在准备入场的初创团队正是不错的契机，等到竞品对手都已经在开疆拓土和攻城略地了，那时进来才是真的晚了。

第三个问题：那如何能在 WEB3 游戏里嵌入流通和支付？

这个问题的答案就大了，我们没有能力去讨论法律和监管方面的事情，这个需要掌握顶层资源的老板们在不同的国家和地区各显神通了。

我们就单从经济模型上来分析，如果能搭建一个 WEB3 游戏的经济模型，先不说效果如何，基本算是可以达到经济系研究生的水平了。流通和支付本身就涉及到整个经济体系的运转，就好比一个现实中的经济体怎么去设计财政体系和金融体系，需要先考虑到这个经济体起步的基础水平，未来产业发展方向，公民的文化和认知水品，国际关系，然后去确定税收和货币体系，再看怎么去调节国防，基础建设，官僚体系，教育医疗等硬支出。

WEB3 游戏的经济模型设计和 WEB2 游戏是不一样的，WEB2 游戏中的很多参量是可以有很大容错度的，因为它们很难变现流通。WEB3 游戏不一样，其中涉及到的是能迅速变现的“币本位”或者“金本位”的 token，各种参量设计的不平衡很容易就崩了。试想那么多的经济学者和金融专家都很难给一个国家设计出完善的经济模型，更何况我们？

但是做键盘侠金手指还是很诱人的，早年为啥天涯和知乎上那么多学富五车的大 V 们乐于指点江山？因为把自己的所思所想能付诸实践，哪怕是纸面上的，也是很爽的一个过程。目前 WEB3 游戏就可以让你去搭建这样一个体系，大侠，您不需要幻想着去穿越了，直接来吧。

当然 100 个经济学者有着 101 个经济理论的，哪怕是 W labs 内部对于游戏经济模型的设计也是有不同的理解的，我只能先笼统地说说自己的观点。

1. 第一，相对于坚持去中心化的清真派别的小伙伴们，我更倾向项目一开始是需要看的见的手在调控的。西方的自由经济学说起源于亚当斯密的《国富论》，揭示了自由市场经济在人性和自我修复上的妙用，后续的学者李嘉图点出了在自由贸易下，社会化分工和交换可以创造更高价值。

   
   

   I stayed in Hong Kong Carnival for almost a week, and I was filled with all kinds of meetings and noodles. I envied those cattle who could catch seven or eight games a day. I basically went into a state of face blindness after three or four games. Now the flight mode on the plane is still a little dizzy, which is the best time to sort out my thoughts. This time, I joined forces and made a chain tour special event. I thought it would be longer in my own field. I didn't expect that my little friend who just started shaking his head on the stage would keep pointing to the watch to remind me that it had been divided. The clock is ringing. Well, I haven't finished my warm-up activities yet, so it's over. Hahahaha, fortunately, this melon still has the skill of text output, so I wrote down the unfinished thoughts at the beginning for melon friends' reference. The first question is whether the game track has been falsified. This time, in addition to Gua Tian's own activities, I also participated in a few with my friends. Everyone is still struggling about whether the future of the chain tour track is promising, because this bull market has not yet run out a similar phenomenon-level bull. But my point of view remains unchanged. If you are optimistic, watch more games firmly. History has proved that games are the entry cornerstone for a new industry to enter the application layer. For example, the development of computer industry depends on the upgrading of chips. None of the most important driving factors for computer chips in the middle of last year was the popularity of Atari game consoles. Pac-Man's games swept the world, which directly led to the emergence of the chip industry at that time. Dali worked for the only time in his life. For example, in recent years, under the tide of NVIDIA, he became the most beautiful high-tech handsome guy in the world. However, NVIDIA first made video cards. The money in the pockets of hard-core gamers around the world contributed to the earliest cash flow game in NVIDIA. The second question is that the general public must get the game first if they seek fun and exciting props. Then why hasn't the game developed yet? The answer is very simple and too early. If we don't consider the encrypted cat that came out last year, it will really go astray. The chain tour began to form a cluster effect, that is, it took only a few years to develop from the beginning of the fire at the beginning of the year. It is too short. Let's first look at the transformation and iteration process of the first two stages of video games. The first transformation was from selling hardware in Atari and Japanese red and white machines to selling software years ago. Because of the popularity of personal computers, the end tour began to flourish. From buying game software to paying for online games on the computer side or paying for time, people who switched to distribution made a lot of money. The second transformation was years ago. Mobile phones and started to spread. And you don't need a heavy computer. Everyone starts to play free games and pay for it. If you use the one-time purchase mode of end-tour again, it is out of date. The abbreviation of service-oriented games has been transformed into the mainstream business model of mobile games. The second transformation has actually changed the development model of the whole industry. For example, the cost of personnel has gradually changed, and the cost of mobile games has to be continuously developed. At the same time, it is necessary to continuously increase customer service personnel and constantly stimulate players to continue. Pay again, for example, more casual games and minute games have come out, because everyone is holding a mobile phone and playing with it in pieces, or a game of minutes is very suitable for the third transformation in the future. What may be the company betting on the meta-universe and changing its name to the meta-universe? Everyone has seen that the number one player has a boiling passion, but the infrastructure that needs to burn a lot of money must continue to improve. For example, many players will faint when wearing ordinary heads. It is said that it is still too early to solve this problem in my opinion. The game in the future may also be in the same direction. Have you ever thought about the biggest difference between games and games in terms of the ultimate goal? What is the difference after the game playability is raised to the same level in terms of entry threshold, project operation and talent reserve? Yes, the biggest feature that circulation and payment games must be combined is that the convenience of payment and transaction can be improved, that is, whether in-game payment or out-of-game payment can be operated smoothly. There is no need to involve the strict restrictions on various countries and regions in various distribution platforms. I must have thought of this, but his stable currency will soon be stillborn and may have touched too many external interests. It is dead, but the team wants to get rich, so the current game is off course because the first explosion chain tour gave everyone a new paradigm, so everyone thinks that the chain tour seems to be just a model in which all projects are copied, because after all, sometimes I make a lot of money. I've been wondering whether the current situation of the game track would be healthier if the first explosive chain tour was a casual chess game and a project with closer circulation and payment, but it's better to go off the track than not to go. It's normal that the beginning of a big trend is naked. For example, the beginning of the era of great navigation can attract so many navigators to take risks to be One Piece, not because everyone still insists on getting rich through trade and finding India and China to smuggle spices and silk, but because they happened to find a big one in South America. Silver mines and profiteering human trafficking need to have the first wave of eye-catching profits there. In the future, the greater wealth-making effect will guide more teams to evolve in the direction of circulation and payment. Therefore, I firmly believe that the bull market of real games has not yet arrived. At present, the situation of green and yellow is a good opportunity for start-up teams that are still preparing to enter the market. It will be really late to come in at that time. The third question is how to swim. The answer to the question of embedding circulation and payment in the play is great. We have no ability to discuss legal and regulatory matters. The bosses who need to master top-level resources have shown their talents in different countries and regions. We will analyze from the economic model alone. If we can build an economic model of the game, let alone how effective it is, it can basically reach the level of graduate students in the economics department. Circulation and payment themselves involve the operation of the whole economic system, just like a real economy. To design the financial system and financial system, we need to consider the basic level of this economy, the future industrial development direction, the citizens' culture and international relations, and then determine the tax and monetary system, and then see how to adjust the national defense infrastructure, bureaucracy, education and medical care. The economic model design of the game is different from that of the game, because many parameters in the game can be highly tolerant because they are difficult to realize, and the circulation game is different, which involves the currency standard or gold standard that can be realized quickly. The imbalance in the design of various parameters will easily collapse. Imagine so many economists. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

   但哪怕是美国国父之一汉密尔顿，在担任美国第一届财政部长期间，也没有采用《国富论》里的思路，而是用了德国李斯特的学说，就是一个经济体一开始是需要强贸易保护的，需要强关税壁垒来保障本国脆弱的工业发展，直到成熟后才放出去和别国产品去竞争。别看现在美国英国等发达国家天天喊着自由贸易，他们刚起步时对自己家的产业比谁都保护的凶，美国的纺织机之父斯莱特就是从英国带了纺织技术跑到美国，到现在还被称为英国的叛徒。

   放到 WEB3 游戏的模型中也是一样的，一开始不能放任各种 token 太过自由化的流通，外面一群索罗斯一样的饿狼们在虎视眈眈。不管是采用中心化调控还是内部机制的引导，先在体系里养成熟了再说。

2. 第二，等到了国内产业慢慢成熟后，是采用近代史里德国日本韩国崛起时的国家深度介入经济循环的方式，还是美国英国法国的小政府大市场的机制，就看操盘团队自己的风格了，两种体系都有成功的案例。第一种崛起的快，短时间能见效，第二种后劲长，财政模型健康。两种模式其实在不同的发展阶段是可以转变的，比如美国在二战后的罗斯福新政，妥妥的就是采用了第一种模式，其实就是当年苏联五年计划的翻版，但是效果是很显著的。

   就 WEB3 的经济模型来看，第一种模式就以资产增值为主线，能短时间带动经济体的 GDP ( FDV ) 顶上去，同时能吸引来越来越多的人加入；第二种模式就是通过设定好的流通环节的收税机制，经济体的主要收入靠着税收来进行，类似赌场经营模式。比较完美的策略是“先一再二”，但是说的容易做起来太难了，能做到“一”已经是人中龙凤了，还要控制贪欲，强制放弃可能短时间躺赚的财富，为了虚无缥缈的未来重新整改，估计那时团队里绝大部分的小伙伴们都不会同意的。

   这其实也是回答了本文的标题问题，本轮牛市的爆款链游至少应该是在某个方面做到了一样前无古人的创新，不然对各种 Earn 已经审美疲劳的用户们不会买单的，或者可能创新点在某项目上已经出现了，就等一个引爆点。

3. 第三，如果一个项目有幸能进入到“二”的阶段，那么就是比拼流通和支付手段谁更牛逼了。之前几十年，用户消费模式的转变已经证明了谁能提高流通和支付的便捷性，谁就能带领行业的变革：刷信用卡比钱包里取现金更能促进消费，用 Paypal 或者支付宝比刷信用卡更能促进消费。用户的习惯惰性已经养成了就很难改变了，比如已经习惯了支付宝和微信支付的用户，再让他回到现金或者信用卡的时代，就已经很难了。在未来 WEB3 如果能比 WEB2 更降低用户消费行为的门槛，那 WEB3 游戏也一定能闯出一片天。

   
   WEB3游戏如何在“二”阶段继续稳定向前发展？目前世界上的经济发达体系一般是做到了三点：有限度的自由市场经济，拥有共识的社会运转体系，科技技术的向前迭代。对应到WEB3游戏，其实也是三点：消除流通和支付的障碍，去中心化的合约机制让玩家建立共识，同步游戏行业的新技术发展（比如 AI 和 VR ）。