以太坊Layer2和比特币Layer2 牛市引擎的不同之处

币圈资讯 阅读:35 2024-04-22 02:01:24 评论:0
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作者:Haotian,加密观察员 来源:X,@tmel0211 

MEME币狂欢主流币低迷的时候,我写了一篇奶文说大的正在孕育中,过去两天Altcoin连续两天行情闪崩,让人有种压在头顶的无力感,只能说,这条走牛的路比想象中要难。若要为整个牛市主流叙事画个节奏图,应该是以太坊layer2先发力,然后BTC layer2接力,最终靠AI+DePIN引爆大牛市?接下来,简单说几句:

1)自3月份以来,二级市场就已经呈现出了疲态,坎昆升级后以太坊layer2短赞的热度之后,市场表现远不及预期。原因也很了然,有研究报告称,到2030年,以太坊layer2市场价值会达到万亿美元规模,目前四大天王Arbitrum、Optimism、Starknet已发Token项目的平均估值仅在百亿美元级别。显然,以太坊layer2市场还处于发展初期,然而事实是,很多人却都有以太坊layer2垂垂老矣后继乏力的感觉。

主要因为,以太坊layer2市场生态发展落地不及预期,而“一键发链”的Stack堆栈策略短期看还停留在叙事层面,坎昆升级的阶段性利好也基本兑现,以太坊layer2需要更新的应用落地或技术突破牵引。目前来看有几个方向的潜在变局:

1)@Starknet、Arbitrum等通用layer2链在全链游戏、layer3应用链等方向拿出现象级的爆款;

2)@Scroll_ZKP、Taiko等EVM等效ZK-Rollup layer2的后续落地并带来生机;

3)不走寻常路的@MetisL2等新锐layer2,在落地去中心化Sequencer之后,靠原生代币激励市场能走出特别的发展节奏;

4)一键发链和模块化DA以及Rollup As A Service等B端扩张范式能否进一步推动创新layer2出现等等。

总之,以太坊layer2原本承担着让以太坊再度繁荣的使命,Vitalik提出的layer2 centric为导向的以太坊经济体能否实现,这些layer2项目都承担着艰巨的使命。好处是,EIP-4844坎昆升级后,项目方要承担的DA成本降低,潜在的收益会增加。变量是,究竟是layer2强大了吸引了用户增加(Mass Adoption),还是用户不断增加了(日活、用户量),进一步激发了layer2的发展潜能,我目前倾向于后者。

预感,以太坊layer2接下来会靠时不时冒出的应用创新和技术底层创新来慢慢积蓄能量,急不来。比如,Eigenlayer AVS落地后对layer2市场的影响,又或者ZK技术在跨链安全性和可交互操作性上的进一步凸显,以及Vitalik所说从General-Purpose到Special-Purpose的多元探索等等。

2)毫无疑问,BTC layer2市场的潜力吃得就是以太坊layer2市场不及预期的红利。相比以太坊生态,BTC生态有更强的共识,有铭文资产发行玩法等拉新效应,因为尚无严苛标准,也会有更丰富多元的创新玩法,VC、散户在整个BTC layer2市场都甚为活跃。有理由相信,BTC 减半后,BTC生态的生态热会成为牛市中期的驱动引擎。

不过,BTC layer2市场起于乱局,能不能有序发展出一个有后劲的市场,也存在若干潜在变量:

1)@NervosNetwork的UTXO同构绑定链生态和@BSquaredNetwork的EVM-Compatible模块化组合链生态,以及原本的BTC Native的Rune、Atomical、RGB、闪电网络等会出现赛跑状态;

2)BTC生息赛道会复刻以太坊Restaking出现更多的丰富玩法,比如;Bouncebit、Babylon、@SolvProtocol等都给出了不同的解决方案;

3)铭文等资产发行玩法如何后继会不会有新一波Fomo热潮,又能结合layer2组合出哪些玩法;

BTC layer2生态走到现在已然成了一个亟待爆发的主流核心叙事,乍一看,它有点在走以太坊layer2的老路,多少会有重复造轮子之嫌,但比特币生态强大的共识和资产发行拉新能力,以及丰富的延展开发可能性,会成为这一轮牛市续力的关键。

预感4月份比特币减半之后,会陆续开始发酵,成为接下来的市场话题焦点。

3)细心观察的话,AI+DePIN相关的Alpha项目市场已经有很多,DePIN方向包括去中心化云算力网络,去中心化存储网络、去中心化无线通信网络(RPC)、去中心化传感器网络、去中心化路由器、以及能源地理空间数据网络等等;

AI方向涉及面就更广了,分布式机器学习、去中心化算力大模型训练、分布式推理、分布式数据存储验证挖矿、分布式IP知识产权等等。这个赛道可拓展的路径和想象空间太大了,唯一的不足是需要长时间的酝酿和布局,也急不来。我们从@ionet的市场增长威力不难感觉到,随便某个方向拎出来都有机会诞生上百亿美元市值的项目。

AI+DePIN作为全新的赛道,的确会衍生诸多创新的概念和趋势,如果说DeFi承接了大家对金融去中心化的期待,那AI+DePIN几乎可以把整个传统web2网络,互联网、物联网以及AI都照进Web3世界。这才是这一轮磅礴大牛市更应该聚焦的核心主升浪。只不过,AI和DePIN都不是一个PPT就能搞定的叙事,需要较长时间的筹划和落地,而且还需要增长时间,急不来。

预感,AI+DePIN会和BTC layer2生态共享前半段的市场热度,支撑起牛市中期的热度,最终AI+DePIN会成为主流,成为牛市Fomo期绝对的主流叙事。

Note:以上是我预感中的一轮牛市节奏,显然现在还处于牛市前半段,牛市中期、后半段的故事都还在孕育当中,站在整个牛市叙事节奏内看,初期这点波动真不算啥。


The author encrypted the observer source currency carnival when the mainstream currency was in a downturn, I wrote a milk article saying that the big one was gestating. In the past two days, the market collapsed for two consecutive days, which made people feel powerless. I can only say that this road of walking the cow is more difficult than expected. If we want to draw a rhythm diagram for the mainstream narrative of the whole bull market, it should be that Ethereum should make efforts first, then relay and finally detonate the big bull market. Next, simply say a few words. Since the upgrade of Cancun, the secondary market has shown fatigue. The post-market performance is far below expectations, and the reasons are also very clear. Some research reports say that the market value of Ethereum will reach trillion dollars by 2008. At present, the average valuation of the developed projects of the four kings is only in the tens of billions of dollars. Obviously, the Ethereum market is still in the early stage of development, but the fact is that many people feel that Ethereum is old and weak, mainly because the ecological development of Ethereum market is not as expected, and the stacking strategy of one-click chain is still at the narrative level in the short term. At present, there are potential changes in several directions, such as the universal chain in the direction of the full-chain game application chain, and other equivalent follow-up landings, which bring vitality to the cutting-edge people who don't take the usual path. After the decentralization, the original token encourages the market to get out of the special development rhythm, and whether the one-click chain and modularization and the equal-end expansion paradigm can further promote the emergence of innovation, etc. In short, Ethereum originally undertakes. The mission of making Ethereum prosperous again. Whether these projects can be realized by the oriented Ethereum economy is an arduous mission. The advantage is that after Cancun's upgrade, the cost borne by the project side will be reduced, and the potential benefits will increase. The variable is whether it is strong, attracting more users or increasing the number of daily users, which further stimulates the development potential. At present, I am inclined to the latter. I have a hunch that Ethereum will slowly accumulate energy by the application innovation and technology innovation that emerge from time to time. There is no doubt that the potential of the market, such as the impact on the market after landing, or the further prominence of technology in cross-chain security and interoperability, and the diversified exploration from the beginning to the end, is that the unexpected dividend in the Ethereum market has a stronger consensus than the ecological ecology of Ethereum, and there are inscriptions on asset issuance and gameplay, and there will be more diversified innovative gameplay because there are no strict standards. Retail investors are very active in the whole market, and there is reason to believe that the ecological life will be half. State fever will become the driving engine in the middle of bull market. However, whether the market starts from chaos can develop a market with stamina in an orderly manner, and there are also a number of potential variables, such as isomorphic binding chain ecology and modular combination chain ecology, as well as the original lightning network, and so on. There will be a racing state, and the interest-bearing track will be re-engraved with Ethereum, and more rich gameplay will appear. For example, we all give different solutions, inscriptions, how to issue assets, how to succeed, whether there will be a new wave of enthusiasm, and what gameplay ecology can be combined? Up to now, it has become a mainstream core narrative that needs to be exploded urgently. At first glance, it is a bit like taking the old road of Ethereum, and it may be suspected of repeatedly building wheels. However, the strong consensus of bitcoin ecology, the ability to issue new assets and the rich possibility of extending development will become the key premonition of the continuation of this bull market. After the bitcoin is halved in January, it will gradually start to ferment and become the focus of the next market topic. If you look closely, there are already many directions in the related project market, including decentralized cloud computing power network. Network decentralized storage network decentralized wireless communication network decentralized sensor network decentralized router and energy geo-spatial data network, etc. The direction involved is wider. Distributed machine learning decentralized computing power large model training distributed reasoning distributed data storage verification mining distributed intellectual property rights, etc. This track has too much room for expansion and imagination. The only drawback is that it takes a long time to brew and layout, and it is also urgent. Our market growth power is not strong. It's hard to feel that projects with a market value of tens of billions of dollars will be born in any direction. As a brand-new track, many innovative concepts and trends will indeed be derived. If we accept everyone's expectation of financial decentralization, we can almost shine the whole traditional network, Internet and Internet of Things into the world. This is the core rising wave that this magnificent bull market should focus on, but it is not a narrative that can be solved. It takes a long time to plan and land, and it needs to grow. Time is urgent. I have a hunch that the market heat in the first half of the bull market will support the heat in the middle of the bull market and will eventually become the mainstream and the absolute mainstream narrative in the bull market period. The above is the rhythm of a bull market in my hunch. Obviously, it is still in the first half of the bull market, and the stories in the second half of the bull market are still gestating. Standing in the whole bull market narrative rhythm, it is really nothing to watch the initial fluctuation. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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