在加密市场如何分析宏观

In fact, this article has been brewing for more than half a month, but because of various trivial matters in life and work, many opinions have been published in short articles or replies in the near future, but I always want to string them together to make a more systematic comb. Recently, hot events are frequent and may not be published, so I will throw them out first and then slowly improve them. If there are any omissions, please pat them kindly. Why do you want to study the macro for a long time? Since macro is called macro, it is the cause. Because the general direction will not change every day, just like the water flowing downwards, history will always follow its established context. Secondly, there is a certain time difference between the macro analysis of the market and whether you can make money, at least at the daily level. There is no way to do short-term and high leverage, but if you say that the macro has nothing to do with investment, it must be too big. Suppose you see the development prospects of electric vehicles and lay out Tesla NVIDIA shares a few months in advance, so what we have to do must have been full. It is necessary to keep the macro direction in mind and know the general trend. In order to achieve the unity of heart and hand, we must see the key points and long-short signals of different currencies. Now the world has reached the eve of the key node of interest rate reduction, which is a major event that will affect the macro and micro. Therefore, it is very necessary to write an analysis article separately. Then we will take the world in early April as a snapshot to analyze it. Second, how to analyze the macro and international relations, we can start from China, the United States, Russia, the United States, Europe, Russia, Ukraine, the United States, Japan and NATO. When it comes to international macroeconomics, we should pay attention to the international commodity prices, such as gold, oil, coal and iron ore, as well as the US stock market's Dow, and the US dollar index's power generation and electricity consumption, all of which are symptoms reflected in the profound changes in the international situation. We should recognize that we are not rule makers, but we are still farmers who depend on the weather in essence, and we should adjust our strategies in time by observing the changes of these data to obtain one. A good harvest combines international relations with the economy. We need to keep track of and understand the changes in bilateral and changeable trade conditions at all times, paying special attention to the exchange of interests between countries, and the natural resource endowments of each country are different according to the comparative advantages of capital, energy, raw materials, labor, machinery processing, waterway transportation and other factors. Many people say that it is very similar to the Great Depression and the Great Crisis in 2000, not only the economic and financial crisis, but also the hot spots around the world are full of smoke. In today's world of great struggle, what are we fighting for? The right to speak, the right to develop, the right to survive, the right to price and the right to issue money. We just live in a rare stable period after World War II and the end of the Cold War. This stable period has been very long in the long river of human history. The incremental changes in various dimensions brought about by China's reform and opening up have extended this peaceful period by at least years, but now the dividend has been exhausted and the single hegemony of the United States has gradually come to the point of disintegration. Third, the basic pattern of today's world, no matter you. No matter where the political spectrum is, whether your political stance is left, middle and right, you can't deny that China and the United States are the dual cores of today's world, and Sino-US relations are the bilateral relations that have the greatest impact on the world at present, so we will analyze them more with China and the United States as the main line, so that at least you can understand half of them naturally and get started more easily. The biggest difference between China and the United States is that the top-down system is different, and the United States is a monetary and financial country commonly known as playing with money. China is an industrial producer, commonly known as "screwing". Since the collapse of the Brinton Woods system, the US dollar has mainly relied on oil as an anchor, but now this anchor has become very loose and has become a trend of RMB system with industrial products as an anchor. The contradiction in today's world is the new industrial capital represented by China, the traditional financial capital represented by the United States, China's industrialization ability, the United States' deindustrialization of industrial products, the RMB system of petroleum, military technology and the US dollar system, and the two countries are not single iron. There is a red-blue debate between China and the United States. Let's temporarily press the concept of hypertension versus hypoglycemia, which is not popular. It actually started from the decoupling of Trump's trade war. It means that although the United States keeps raising interest rates, it still can't curb high inflation. Although China keeps stimulating domestic demand to open up new markets, it still inevitably has overcapacity and even a shocking low-cost electric car. You may say that it is not a dilemma to pull China's low-priced products to the United States and call China. The United States has a large number of cheap industrial products to supply, and inflation will drop immediately. With China, the overcapacity in the big market of the United States will also be solved immediately, because both countries know that this is only a short-term solution to the problem. However, if the military superiority of the United States is completely lost, it will not be as simple as high inflation. The United States will definitely be driven off the frozen throne, so it must be curbed while it still has strategic advantages to interrupt or delay China's industrialization as far as possible. This is the decoupling chip. A series of containment measures with allies and younger brothers, such as sanctions, have been carried out since China joined the WTO in, and the abundant and generally educated labor force, together with the usual hard-working under the Confucian civilization circle in East Asia, like deposits and attach importance to education and other factors, have superimposed and erupted huge productivity. In the era of big machines, China's productivity is enough to supply industrial products around the world, and even there is still a surplus of labor force. This is the year crisis. After China, a long-term worker, the landlord of the United States, gradually put guns into storage. The industrial capacity of Fangnan Mountain has been shrinking year by year, from the initial comprehensive defense to the key defense, and only the military industry can be preserved, even the key defense can't be guaranteed. If you have seen the Empire State Building and Brooklyn Bridge in new york, you will be amazed that Americans had such a strong industrial capacity years ago. It is no accident that they became king after World War I and World War II, but if you watch the sewage flowing across the new york subway and mice running around, you will also sigh that things are impermanent. If you see that even the production line has been dismantled in recent years, you will be bloated and overspent. Liberty, Ticonderoga, and Ford's electric bomb are getting on the wrong technical route, and you will understand that there is little industrial fig leaf left in the empire. Otherwise, even the howitzers on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield can't be fully supplied, and finally you can only be forced to give up Ukraine. The all-round three-dimensional capital war between China and the United States has actually entered the stage of strategic stalemate. In fact, the Russian-Ukrainian war catalyzed by the constant extreme pressure of the United States and NATO was actually delayed for years after the disintegration of the Soviet Union to solve the contradictions that were not handled clearly at that time. It is like the village bully constantly teasing the village head and the second 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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