美国遭遇高通胀，市场开出生死局_虚拟币交易所平台,数字货币,NFT

隔夜，美国时间周五早晨，劳工统计局发布了11月的通胀数据。物价指数6.8%，较10月份提高了0.8%（10月份较9月份则提高了0.9%）。核心物价指数4.96%，较10月份提高了0.5%（10月份较9月份提高了0.6%）。快速攀升的物价指数据说已经创下了自1982年以来的最高水平。[1]

这下子热闹了。各路人马开始对着同一份数据讲出了完全相反的故事。

Bloomberg资深编辑John Authers说，市场会根据实际数据和预期之间的对比来做出反应，这通胀虽然挺高，但是仍然低于7%，也就没有达到“爆棚”的情况，这会让大家松一口气，而且大家不要那么悲观，通胀高企的坏情况可能并不会持续太久。[2]

美国总统拜登发表了一个讲话，说通胀上升的势头在放缓嘛（11月上升的速度确实比10月有所下降），大家抓紧通过我的1.75万亿美元的支出法案，这会非常有助于降低物价哦。[3]

S P全球评级的首席经济学家Beth Ann Bovino则说，通胀太严重了，美联储必须加速收水（taper），把目前11、12月实施的速度（按此速度连续taper明年6月完成）加速一倍，争取明年3月完成taper，关死水龙头，然后2022年至少要实施一次加息。[4]

保德信的固收部首席经济学家Ellen Gaske则更为悲观，认为美联储不仅要在明年3月份taper到零，而且至少要在明年2季度、3季度以及2023年连续加息25bp，把利率加高到1.5%左右。[5]

众说纷纭，莫衷一是。

就在前几天，12/7号的时候，我在星球里说，兔子开冬奥，老鹰在玩火，这样很不好。如果老鹰能够按照《万亿降准吹响空头集结号》（7月10号文章）中写的，主动和兔子缓和矛盾，相向而行，争取兔子的出手相助，就可以尽快把通胀压下去。本来前段时间鹰兔联合发表气候协定已经释放出积极信号了。但是老鹰非要玩火啊，又是抵制，又是峰会什么的，这就让兔子很难堪了。所以，兔子一定会找机会踹老鹰两脚。老鹰的通胀要飙了。

君不见兔子在记者会上也放了狠话，对于老鹰的恶劣行为，一定会坚决反击，至于如何反击，还请大家拭目以待。

鲍威尔11月底在听证会上放出的狠话是有道理的。新病毒的重新流行，再次冲击供应链，势必会加剧美国国内物资短缺的问题，推高通胀。（参考12/1文章《鲍威尔放出狠话》）

物资短缺的问题靠印钱肯定是解决不了的。解决方案很明显，就是要加大生产供应。纵观小小环球，在病毒肆虐的大环境下，除了兔子，还有谁能帮老鹰解决生产供应的问题？

我不信美国那些高级政客们心里不清楚。他们清楚得很。从先前耶伦隔空喊话的意思就能看出来他们心如明镜。（参考7/20文章《耶伦投石问路》）但是，当斗兔子成为老鹰的一种政治正确的时候，这些政客们就开始装聋作哑、掩耳盗铃了。

其实鲍威尔是有几分对的。老鹰的通胀是暂时性（transitory）。只要兔子肯帮忙，再加上随着疫苗和特效药的推进，疫情逐步缓解，通胀就会回归到正常水平。可是，不作死就不会死，现在美国11月份通胀继续飙升，离美联储所谓2%的追踪水平已经高出去3倍不止，这完全是自作自受。

可是在美国压倒性的政治正确大环境下，鲍威尔也扛不住了。最终在11月份承认，通胀不再是暂时性的，进而在11月的FOMC议息会议上宣布正式于年底前实施taper收水。（参考阅读11/4《美联储如期taper！但是……》）

连Bloomberg资深编辑John Authers也在12/11号发表文章，说2021年关于通胀是不是暂时性的这一争论已经宣告结束[6]。更早几天，12/9号，他发文说，现在不是2018年，那个时候通胀甚至不是一个问题。而现在，美联储无法回避加息。[7]

看起来，兔子不帮忙的话，老鹰要压通胀就只剩捅自己两刀的办法了。

拜登总统不是卡特总统，他显然不想捅自己两刀，主动给自己放血。他甚至还想再吃两粒大血丸回回血呢。

越通胀，越放水。越放水，越通胀。因为物资就那么多么，如果无法快速扩大供应，印钱只会让钱迅速变得更加不值钱。封闭系统里的放水和回血，只能是零和游戏，掠夺大多数人的财富，集中到少数人手中。

如果鲍威尔不只是放出狠话，而是像80年代保罗·沃克那样做个狠人，主动给老鹰身上狠狠地捅上几刀，放放血，收水加息一气呵成，也许是可以靠一己之力控住通胀。但是后果呢？

美股崩溃，美债飙升。两个方向都是不可承受之重。美股崩溃，资本利益集团的财富就缩水了。为了捍卫自己的蛋糕，资本利益集团可是不惜暗杀美国总统的狠主儿。美债飙升，债台高筑的美国政府就要偿还更多的利息，这会让政府赤字严重恶化。

更糟糕的是，美国政府要刺激经济，就要减税和搞基建，这会减少政府收入，扩大政府开支，更加没钱还债。没钱还债怎么办？最后还是要找美联储借钱。找美联储借钱就是印钞。印新钱，还旧债。钱变得更多了。

美联储加的息，不过是让自己左手倒右手的水管加粗了一些，而对于控制通胀可能完全失去作用，反而打击了股市，得罪了资本利益集团，加重了美国政府的压力，恶化了美国政府的赤字。这就面临着把美国经济推入滞胀深渊的危险。

这个危险，同样是大家都心知肚明，却装聋做哑。拜登政府清楚，鲍威尔和美联储清楚，华尔街更清楚。

不要听别人说了什么，而要看他做了什么。

美国通胀数据飙升之后，美股三大指数（标普、纳斯达克、道琼斯）纷纷收涨。其中，标普甚至再创新高。这怎么看不出来一点儿预期美联储要加速收水、提前实施加息的样子呢？

至于币市，就比较可爱了。在数据放出来之后，先是跟随美股上涨了一波。大饼一度回升了2个多点，回到50k上方。两个小时之后，主力开始放出解读，说通胀高企，加剧了市场对于美联储加速taper和加息的担忧。配合消息面就来了一波砸盘，大饼就回落到47k去了。

可见，币市的小玩家们还是缺乏深度思考能力的，所以就更容易受到人为炮制的观点影响。

主力筹码还没吸够，大饼还在不断流出交易所。这个时候，任何消息都要配合主力的行动。从消息到价格，中间隔着人性。

主力颠倒黑白，指鹿为马，坏的说成好的，好的说成坏的，币市根本分辨不出来。只能看得懂最表面的结论，别人故意给出的结论。

所以说，币市还是一个十分单纯而幼稚的市场呀。

这样的市场，在老道的华尔街之狼看来，只有六个字：人傻，钱多，速来。


参考资料：
- [1] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/dec/10/us-inflation-rate-rise-2021-highest-increase-since-1982
- [2] https://super.sina.cn/shequn/post/detail_610295348633178113.html
- [3] https://www.reuters.com/business/biden-says-inflation-data-due-friday-will-not-reflect-recent-drop-some-prices-2021-12-09/
- [4] https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59573145
- [5] https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202112102210292570.html
- [6] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-10/2021-debate-over-whether-inflation-is-transitory-is-over
- [7] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-09/markets-overestimate-a-powell-pivot-on-inflation-to-prop-up-growth-assets

(公众号：刘教链。星球：公众号回复“星球”)
(免责声明：本文内容均不构成任何投资建议。加密货币为极高风险品种，有随时归零的风险，请谨慎参与，自我负责。)

Overnight, Friday morning, US time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the inflation data for the month, and the price index rose from the month to the month, and the core price index rose from the month to the month. The rapidly rising price index is said to have reached the highest level since 2000, and all the people began to tell the exact opposite story to the same data. The senior editor said that the market would respond according to the comparison between the actual data and expectations, although the inflation was quite high. However, if it is still below, it will not reach the bursting point, which will give everyone a sigh of relief, and we should not be so pessimistic. The bad situation of high inflation may not last long. US President Biden made a speech saying that the upward trend of inflation is slowing down, and the rate of monthly increase is indeed lower than that of last month. Everyone should pass my trillion-dollar expenditure bill quickly, which will be very helpful to reduce prices. The chief economist of the global rating said that inflation is too serious, and the Federal Reserve must speed up the collection of water. At this rate, the implementation speed of the previous month will be doubled in next month, and then the tap will be turned off in next month, and then the interest rate will be raised at least once a year. The chief economist of Prudential's collection department is even more pessimistic. He thinks that the Fed will not only raise interest rates to zero in next month, but also raise interest rates to the left and right in the next quarter and year. There are different opinions. Just a few days ago, I said on the planet that rabbits are opening the winter Olympics and eagles are playing with fire. This is very bad if eagles can press it. According to the trillion-dollar RRR cut, the short-selling assembly number was blown, and the initiative to ease the contradiction with the rabbit and strive for the rabbit's help can suppress inflation as soon as possible. Originally, the climate agreement jointly issued by the eagle and the rabbit some time ago has released a positive signal, but the eagle has to play with fire, boycott and summit, which makes the rabbit very embarrassed, so the rabbit will definitely find a chance to kick the eagle's feet. The inflation of the eagle will soar, and you can't see that the rabbit also put malicious words on the eagle at the press conference Bad behavior will definitely fight back. As for how to fight back, please wait and see. Powell's malicious words released at the hearing at the end of the month are justified. The resurgence of the new virus will impact the supply chain again, which will inevitably aggravate the shortage of materials in the United States and push up inflation. The solution to Powell's malicious words is obviously to increase production and supply. Looking at the small world, who can help the eagle except rabbits in the environment where the virus is rampant? Solve the problem of production and supply. I don't believe those senior politicians in the United States don't know it clearly. From the meaning of Yellen's previous call from a distance, they can see that they are like a mirror. Yellen throws stones to ask for directions, but when fighting rabbits becomes a political correctness of the eagle, these politicians begin to turn a deaf ear. In fact, Powell is somewhat right. The inflation of the eagle is temporary, as long as rabbits are willing to help, and with the promotion of vaccines and specific drugs, the epidemic will gradually ease inflation. It will return to the normal level, but if you don't die, you won't die. Now the inflation in the United States continues to soar in January, which is many times higher than the so-called tracking level of the Federal Reserve. This is not only self-inflicted, but Powell can't bear it in the overwhelming political correctness of the United States. Finally, he admitted in January that inflation is no longer temporary, and then announced at the meeting on interest rates in February that the water collection will be officially implemented before the end of the year. The Federal Reserve published an article on June as scheduled, but even senior editors said that inflation was not. This debate is temporary. A few days earlier, he issued a document saying that inflation was not even a problem at that time, but now the Fed can't avoid raising interest rates. It seems that if the rabbit doesn't help, the eagle will only have to stab himself twice to suppress inflation. President Biden is not President Carter. He obviously doesn't want to stab himself twice and voluntarily bleed himself. He even wants to take two more big blood pills to return blood. The more inflation, the more water is released, the more inflation, because the materials are so impossible. Rapidly expanding the supply of printing money will only make the money become more worthless quickly. The water release and blood return in the closed system can only be a zero-sum game to plunder the wealth of most people and concentrate it in the hands of a few people. If Powell is not just a vicious person like Paul Walker in the 1970 s, he will take the initiative to stab the eagle with a few knives, bleed and collect water to raise interest rates. Maybe he can control inflation in one go, but the consequences are that the US stock market collapses and the US debt soars. The US stock market collapses in both directions. The wealth of capital interest groups has shrunk. In order to defend their own cake, capital interest groups are willing to assassinate the president of the United States. The US debt has soared, and the US government, which is heavily in debt, will have to pay more interest, which will seriously worsen the government deficit. What's worse, the US government will have to cut taxes and build infrastructure to stimulate the economy, which will reduce government revenue and expand government expenditure. What should we do if we have no money to pay off debts? In the end, we will have to borrow money from the Fed, that is, printing new money and paying off old debts. Money has become more and more. The interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve only makes the water pipe with its left hand and right hand thicker, which may have no effect on controlling inflation. Instead, it has hit the stock market, offended capital interest groups, aggravated the pressure on the US government, and worsened the deficit of the US government. This is in danger of pushing the US economy into the abyss of stagflation. This danger is also that everyone knows it, but they are deaf and dumb. Biden's government knows Powell and the Federal Reserve know Wall Street better, and don't listen to what others say. It depends on what he has done. After the inflation data soared in the United States, the three major indexes of the US stock market, S&P, Nasdaq and Dow Jones, closed up one after another. Among them, S&P even reached a new high. Why can't you see that the Fed is expected to speed up the collection of water and raise interest rates in advance? As for the currency market, it is more lovely. After the data was released, the pie rose with the US stock market for a while, and it once rose a little. After returning to the top two hours, the main force began to release, explaining that high inflation intensified the market's Concerns about raising interest rates and the news came with a wave of smashing cakes and then fell back. It can be seen that the small players in the currency market still lack the ability to think deeply, so they are more susceptible to the artificial point of view. The main chips have not sucked enough cakes and are still flowing out of the exchange. At this time, any news should cooperate with the main actions, from the news to the price, the main human nature is reversed, and the black and white is called a deer as a horse. The good money market is said to be good, but the bad money market can't be distinguished at all, so it is said that the money market is still a very simple and naive market. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

注册有任何问题请添加 微信：MVIP619 拉你进入群

文章转载注明 网址：https://netpsp.com/?id=46593