比特币会成为美元周期的新羊毛吗？_虚拟币交易所平台,数字货币,NFT

隔夜大饼（BTC）回升至50k，市场看起来是要以坚挺的姿态迎接明后天的美联储FOMC议息会议。这次FOMC是今年最后一次会议，将在14-15号两天召开，对于东半球的我们，预计将会在16号听到会议的结论。

在这样一个微妙的时间节点，美联储的这次议息会议备受瞩目。一方面，Omicron变异病毒的效力仍未有最终结论。（参阅11/29《病毒反扑美联储》）显然，一边有人在安抚说目前看来威力不大；另一边也有不少国家升级了防疫措施，尤其是一些原本躺平的西方国家，简直是如临大敌。另一方面，美国的通胀越来越高。（参阅12/11《美国遭遇高通胀，市场开出生死局》）同样的，一边在对再创新高的通胀率忧心忡忡，恐怕将促进美联储的宏观货币政策加速收紧（参阅12/1《鲍威尔放出狠话》）；另一边则由总统出面喊话，安抚大家说通胀增速在放缓，见顶后就会回落的，大家不必担忧。

这些彼此矛盾的报道、解读和行为颇具迷惑性，耍的全世界的吃瓜群众团团转，云山雾绕，不知所踪。不过，这就是金融家搞金融的策略，对于任何可能造成市场解读和行动的信号和政策，都需要进行预期管理，以避免市场做出超出掌控的行为。这个套路是由曾经的美联储主席格林斯潘予以总结并发扬光大的。当然，民间的集大成者可能当属《卖拐》的赵本山，而范伟同志就是被进行预期管理的吃瓜群众。

美联储在11月初FOMC会议公布并立即执行了两次taper，分别在11月和12月。（参阅11/4《美联储如期taper》）这精准地压制了年底的下半场行情（即如2013、2017年底的冲顶行情）。市场遭到了迎头阻击，应声回落。（参阅12/5《大饼倒车接人》）现在已经接近12月中旬，还在嘴硬坚持认为年底之前币市会冲顶的煮熟的鸭子应该几乎绝迹了吧？（参阅10/15《年底没有下半场》）

整个币市有两种币，一种是，另一种是其他币。其他币的本质更像是某个所谓区块链项目的“股票”，具有证券性质。因此，它们随着美联储的货币指挥棒翩翩起舞的样子，和美股是有几分相似之处的。但是对于大饼，则有些不同。大饼是电子黄金，美元通胀的对抗性产品。那么，我们会有两个彼此矛盾的推理：其一，通胀高企，美联储收水加息，美股暴跌，联动大饼暴跌；其二，通胀高企，人们纷纷避险，买入抗通胀的，大饼上涨。那么哪一种推理是对的呢？

都对，也都不对。要明白这个世界的事物是时刻变化的，不是非黑即白的，此一时彼一时，不存在绝对的真理、永恒的正确。所有的真理和正确都是有其所以成立的狭小而逼仄的时空的，超出了这个范围，真理就成了谬论，正确就成了错误。

正确的思考方式不是去争论对还是错，而是去发现那个范围的边界在何处。

不明白涨跌本就是一体两面、对立统一，开口就问是涨还是跌的人，是无可救药的。

美联储的水龙头，影响大饼的美元价格。美联储的水龙头，也影响美股价格。但是大饼的价格，和美股的价格，却不是因果关系。在一个局部时空，会呈现出一定的相关关系。有时候是正相关关系，有时候是负相关关系。总体而言，是没有特别大的相关关系。

这里面的问题就在于美联储还不能直接印钞购买大饼。所以美联储放的水，只能通过其他渠道拐弯抹角地流向大饼。这就造成了这样的表象，即那些作为水管子的东西，会和大饼呈现出一定的相关性，甚至是暂时的因果性。

比如美联储印钞给美国政府，支持拜登总统全民发钱的法案。经由财政部，直接把美元发给美国人民。拿到美元的人，一部分消费了，一部分买房子、美股等资产了，一部分买大饼了。经过这样的一个传导路径，美联储放的水才进入大饼。我们的分析和思考，必须具体到这个层面，才能找清其间的关系。

最终比特币会不会成为美联储的一个蓄水池呢？大水漫灌的时候就蓄积起来，水涨船高。收水加息的时候就一泻千里，降低水位。这个配合美元操作周期的呼吸动作，有点儿像过去几十年间承担这一职能的非美经济体。

当美元扩张时，超量的美元流入这些非美经济体国家或地区，造成投资过热，经济繁荣。当美元收缩时，资本忽然撤出，造成经济崩溃。华尔街的金融家们便会利用这呼吸之间的转换，在转为扩张周期时拿着海量的美元去大肆收购非美经济体经济崩溃后的低价资产，在转为收缩周期之前高位套现卖出，推动经济崩溃和资产价格崩溃。这个过程，被形象地称为“剪羊毛”。美元周期的这一个呼吸周期大概是16-18年。

2008年金融危机之后，也正是比特币诞生的时候，我们可能恰好处于新一轮美元扩张周期的起点。事实上，DXY的美元指数周期认为，2001-2009是一轮紧缩周期，2009年之后进入新一轮扩张周期。

2009+16是2025年，+18是2027年。从大饼的减半周期看，2025-2026年恰好是下一轮牛市的顶部。一切都是那么的严丝合缝。下一轮牛市的终结，大概就是美元的转向吧。

只是大饼这只羊，可能还不够大、不够肥，因而不够剪。要先把羊养大、养肥。方法就是建立更多的输水管道，通向大饼。然后，还要让全球人民都进到大饼里面来。否则，美国不是自己割自己么？

也许我们央妈已经看透了这个局，所以提前断掉了国人通往大饼的水管道。

未来，会更加精彩。

(公众号：刘教链。星球：公众号回复“星球”)
(免责声明：本文内容均不构成任何投资建议。加密货币为极高风险品种，有随时归零的风险，请谨慎参与，自我负责。)

Overnight, the pie rebounded to the market. It seems that it is necessary to greet the Fed's meeting on interest rates tomorrow and the day after tomorrow with a firm attitude. This is the last meeting this year. For the eastern hemisphere, we expect to hear the conclusion of the meeting on the 20 th. At such a delicate time node, the Fed's meeting on interest rates has attracted much attention. On the one hand, the effectiveness of the mutant virus has not yet reached a final conclusion. See the virus counterattack. Obviously, some people are appeasing that it seems that it is not powerful at present, and there are many countries on the other. The epidemic prevention measures have been upgraded, especially in some western countries, which were flat. On the other hand, inflation in the United States is getting higher and higher. On the other hand, the United States is experiencing high inflation, and the market is playing a life-and-death game. On the same side, it is worried about the new high inflation rate, which will probably accelerate the tightening of the Fed's macro-monetary policy. On the other hand, the President has spoken out to appease everyone, saying that the inflation rate will fall back after slowing down and peaking. You don't have to worry about these contradictory reports. The people who eat melons all over the world are confused in reading and acting, but this is the strategy of financiers to engage in finance. For any signal and policy that may cause market interpretation and action, it is necessary to conduct expected management to avoid the market from acting out of control. This routine was summarized and carried forward by former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. Of course, the master of the people may be Zhao Benshan, who is a kidnapper, and Comrade Fan Wei is expected to be managed. At the meeting held at the beginning of the month, the Federal Reserve announced and immediately implemented it twice, respectively, in January and February. This accurately suppressed the market in the second half of the year, that is, the market was blocked head-on at the end of the year and fell back. See the pie reversing to pick up people. Now it is close to the middle of the month, and the cooked ducks that insist that the currency market will peak before the end of the year should be almost extinct. See the fact that there is no second half at the end of the year. There are two kinds of coins in the whole currency market, one is the other is the books of other currencies. The quality is more like that the stocks of a so-called blockchain project have the nature of securities, so the way they dance with the monetary baton of the Federal Reserve is somewhat similar to that of American stocks, but the pie is somewhat different. The pie is an antagonistic product of electronic gold and dollar inflation, so we will have two contradictory inferences. One is that the inflation is high, the Federal Reserve collects water to raise interest rates, the US stock market plummets, and the other is that the inflation is high. People are hedging and buying anti-inflation cakes. So which kind of reasoning is it? Right or wrong, we should understand that things in this world are changing all the time, not black or white, and there is no absolute truth and eternal correctness. All truths and correctness have their own reasons. Beyond this range, the truth becomes a fallacy and the right becomes a mistake. The correct way of thinking is not to argue about right or wrong, but to find out where the boundary of that range is. If you don't understand the ups and downs, it is a unity of opposites, and you ask yes. People who go up or down are hopeless. The faucet of the Federal Reserve affects the dollar price of pie, and the faucet of the Federal Reserve also affects the price of American stocks. However, the price of pie and the price of American stocks are not causal. In a local time and space, there will be a certain correlation, sometimes a positive correlation and sometimes a negative correlation. Generally speaking, there is no particularly big correlation. The problem here is that the Federal Reserve cannot directly print money to buy pie, so the water released by the Federal Reserve can only pass through other channels. The circuitous flow to the pie has created the appearance that those things that are used as water pipes will be related to the pie to some extent, even temporarily causal. For example, the Federal Reserve printed money to the US government to support President Biden's bill of giving money to the whole people, and directly distributed the US dollars to the American people through the Ministry of Finance. Those who got the US dollars spent part of their money to buy houses, US stocks and other assets, and some bought the pie. Only through such a transmission path did the water released by the Federal Reserve enter the pie. Analysis and thinking must be specific to this level in order to find out the relationship between them. Will Bitcoin eventually become a reservoir of the Fed? When the flood floods, it will accumulate. When the water is flooded, it will rise and rise, and when the interest rate is raised, it will plummet to lower the water level. This breathing action in line with the dollar operation cycle is a bit like the non-American economies that have assumed this function in the past few decades. When the dollar expanded, excessive dollars flowed into these non-American economies, causing overheated investment and economic prosperity. When the dollar contracted, When the capital suddenly withdraws, causing the economic collapse, Wall Street financiers will take advantage of this transition between breathing. When they turn into an expansion cycle, they will take huge amounts of dollars to buy low-priced assets in non-American economies. Before they turn into a contraction cycle, they will cash out and sell at a high level to promote the economic collapse and asset price collapse. This process is vividly called the shearing dollar cycle. This breathing cycle is probably just after the annual financial crisis, and we may just be in the birth of Bitcoin. The starting point of a new round of dollar expansion cycle, in fact, the dollar index cycle is considered to be a tightening cycle. After years, it will enter a new round of expansion cycle. From the halving cycle of the pie, the year is just the top of the next round of bull market. Everything is so seamless. The end of the next round of bull market is probably the turn of the dollar. It's just that the pie sheep may not be big enough or fat enough to cut. The way to raise and fatten the sheep first is to build more water pipes to lead to the pie, and then let the whole world know. People come into the pie, otherwise the United States won't cut itself. Maybe our mother has already seen through this game, so the water pipeline from Chinese people to the pie will be cut off ahead of schedule. The future will be even more exciting. WeChat official account Liu Jiao Chain Planet WeChat official account replies to the planet disclaimer. The contents of this article do not constitute any investment suggestion. Cryptographic currency is a very high-risk variety with the risk of zero at any time. Please be careful to participate in self-responsibility 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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