解读币圈2024年超级大牛市上半年还是下半年
2024年上半年已经过去一个月，对于牛市大家也更加激动，但是当前市场上并没有出现令人振幅的行情，这不仅让部分投资者陷入焦虑，也让大部分投资者开始对币圈2024年超级大牛市上半年还是下半年?进行猜测，根据以往牛市发生时间来看，牛市都是由减半行情带动的，比特币减半时间为4月份，可能意味着牛市在2024年上半年启动，至于大牛市就极有可能会发生在2024年下半年，下面币圈子小编为大家详细分析一下。
One month after the first half of 2024, there has been more excitement about the cattle market, but the current market has not seen any impressive movement, not only causing anxiety among some investors, but also allowing most investors to begin to speculate about the first half or the second half of the 2024 Super Bull market? According to the time of the past, the cattle market was driven by half of the price, and by the April of Bitcoin, which could mean the start of the cattle market in the first half of 2024, and it is likely that the city will take place in the second half of 2024.
币圈2024年超级大牛市可能在下半年。历史不会简单重复，而是惊人相似，币圈历年的牛市都是由比特币带动的，而比特币的牛市一般都是由减半行情带动的。现在可以确定的是，下一次减半的蛋糕将在2024年5月上旬。根据经验，减半前3-6个月市场大概率会开启牛市。也就是说，将于2024年第一季度左右推出。
The 2024 supermarket may be in the second half of the year. History is not simply repeated, but is strikingly similar.
由于传统资金在币圈的参与度较高，因此会受到传统外围金融环境的较大影响。例如，这次熊市很大程度上是由加息造成的。根据全球加息风暴，大多数经济学家预计美联储将继续加息至2023年第一季度。而且，由于加息，经济已经进入衰退期，这一衰退期将持续到第一季度。2024年下半年，要到2024年下半年才会进入降息周期，经济才会复苏。
Most economists expect the Fed to continue to raise interest until the first quarter of 2023, according to the global interest-raising storm. And, because the economy is already in recession, the recession will continue until the first quarter.
现货ETF通过给整个市场打一针强心剂，另外web3、元宇宙、数字经济发展如火如荼，无疑将成为未来几十年推动全球经济发展的突破点。这些虽然不代表虚拟货币，但是关系也非常密切，对于它来说也是一个长期的强势利好。
The spot ETF will undoubtedly be a breakthrough for the global economy in the coming decades by giving the entire market a shot of a hard-core agent, as well as web3, a meta-cosm, and digital economic development. These, while not virtual currencies, are also very close, and for it is a long-term strong and powerful asset.
因为币圈牛市持续时间受多种因素的影响，因此不能给出一个精准的回答。依据历史记录和市场分析，市圈牛市一般持续时间为6个月至2年不等。比如，2016年年末至2017年初，比特币价格从不到1000美元上涨到了近20000美金，牛市持续了一年多的时间。而2019年初，比特币价格从3000美金逐渐上涨，到6月份达到14000美金的高点，牛市持续了近6个月时间。
For example, between the end of 2016 and the beginning of 2017, the price of Bitcoin rose from less than $1,000 to nearly US$ 20,000, and the price of cattle lasted for more than a year. At the beginning of 2019, the price of Bitcoin rose gradually from US$ 3,000 to a high of US$ 14,000 in June.
需要注意的是，数字货币价格行情的张跌是非常不稳定。价格涨得越大，越容易发生调整，调整幅度也越大。因此，而圈牛市的持续时间不可能一直保持上涨，一定会有优化与起伏。
It is important to note that the fall in digital currency prices is very volatile. The higher the price rise, the easier it is to adjust, and the greater it is.
币圈牛市的持续时间与各种因素相关，如市场需求、政策管控、技术革新、社区活动等等，下文是具体分析：
The duration of the market is linked to a variety of factors, such as market demand, policy regulation, technological innovation, community activity, etc., which are analysed below:
1、市场需求：数字货币价格的涨跌很大程度上取决于市场需求，特别是投资人的心态。假如市场需求旺盛，大量资金流入到数字货币市场，价格自然会上涨。相反，假如市场需求不足，价格也下跌。因此，市场需求是决定币圈牛市持续时间的重要因素之一。
1. Market demand: The rise and fall in digital currency prices depend to a large extent on market demand, especially the investor’s mentality. If market demand is strong and large capital flows into the digital money market, prices will rise. On the contrary, if market demand is insufficient, prices will fall.
2、政策管控：政策管控对数字货币市场的影响也非常大。不同国家和地区的政策管控不同，对数字货币的心态也不同。-些国家对数字货币采取了严格监管措施，比如取缔lCO、关掉数字货币交易所等，这将导致数字货币市场短期下跌。而.些国家对数字货而采取了整合性政策，比如允许数字货币买卖、推广数字货币付款等，这将推动数字货币市场的上涨。
Policy regulation: The impact of policy regulation on the digital money market is also very significant. Policy regulation varies from country to country and country to country, with different mindsets about digital money. - Some countries have adopted stringent regulatory measures against digital money, such as banning lCO, closing .
因此，政策管控也是影响币圈牛市持续时间的重要因素之一。
Thus, policy regulation is also one of the major factors affecting the duration of the market.
3、技术革新：数字货币市场是一个技术创新驱动的市场。随着技术的不断进步，数字货币的发展也不断加快。比如，比特币使用了区块链应用，这一技术的出现促使数字货币变得更加安全、去中心化，引领了数字货币市场的上涨。因此，技术革新也是影响币圈牛市持续时间的重要因素之一。
Technological innovation: The digital money market is a technology-driven market. As technology progresses, so does the development of digital money.
4、社区活动：数字货币市场的社区也非常活跃，街道的活动、讨论和推广对数字货币市场的影响也不容忽视。比如，一些社区发起了数字货币的推广活动，这将吸引更多人掌握数字货币，进而提升市场需求，价格上涨。因此，社区活动也是影响币圈牛市持续时间的重要因素之一。
4. Community activities: Communities in the digital money market are also very active, and the impact of street activity, discussion and promotion on the digital money market cannot be ignored. For example, some communities have launched digital money promotion campaigns, which will attract more people to the digital money, thereby raising market demand and prices.
以上全部内容就是对币圈2024年超级大牛市上半年还是下半年这一问题的解答，币圈大牛行情需超预期的利好出现，集中体现在充裕的资金流入，超预期降息、监管审批宽松及行业内重大创新等，这些都将会是促成超级大牛市的因素。但另一方面市场不利因素，例如黑天鹅事件往往不可预料，就像谁也不会预知2020 年席卷全球的新冠大疫情发生。总之加密货币市场风险资产波动性大，风险与机遇并存，投资者需要拥有强大的心理。
All of this is the answer to the question of whether the currency circle’s top or second half of the 2024 Super Bull Market will require more than anticipated benefits, with a concentration on well-anticipated capital inflows, over-expected interest reductions, loose regulatory approvals, and major intra-industry innovations, all of which will contribute to the Super Bull Market. But, on the other hand, market disadvantages, such as the Black Swan event, are often unpredictable, as if no one could have predicted a new global boom in 2020.
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