比特幣:新富夢還是新騙局

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  不到四年的時間,比特幣的市值從5美分漲到最高時的266美元,飛漲了5100倍。然而,在短短幾天又迅猛跌到了50美金,此后又攀升到了140美金左右。

In less than four years, the market value of Bitcoins rose from five cents to its peak of $266 and flew 5,100 times. However, in just a few days, it plunged to $50 and then climbed to about $140.

  用途決定性質,就像刀可以救人也可以殺人一樣。觀察人士指出,如果購買者是真正喜歡它,覺得它能用、能投資,那它就是一個正常的產品﹔如果投資者購買的目的並非使用或投資,而是純粹為了把這個產品在短期內以更高價格賣給下一個,它就是騙局。

The user determines the nature of the use, just as a knife can save or kill. The viewer points out that if the buyer really likes it, it can use it /a>, it is a normal product; if , it's a short-term or

  比特幣正一步步在淘寶上躥紅。從最初的虛擬貨幣到投資品再到如今進入到支付環節,比特幣已成為10多家淘寶店鋪的正式結算貨幣。如今,比特幣已經成為真正的流通貨幣。用戶可以使用比特幣在線購買商品,同時比特幣也建立了一套與主權貨幣兌換的機制,能夠兌換美元、歐元等貨幣。從今年3月10日到4月10日,比特幣的價格從46美元暴漲至230美元,一月內價值翻了近6倍。比特幣,這個新鮮的詞匯概念也成為了百度搜索引擎的高點擊率。

Bitcoin has become a real money in circulation now. Users can buy goods online using bitcoin, and at the same time the bitcoin has a system of swapping the main currency for dollars, euros, and so on. From 10 March to 10 April this year, Bitcoin rose sharply from US$ 46 to US$ 230, almost six times its value in a month. Bitcoin, the novel concept has also become a high hit on a 100-degree search engine.

  什麼是比特幣?它和普通流通貨幣有什麼關系?投資比特幣是機遇還是投機?虛擬貨幣開始流行的今天,會不會有一天它們終將取代真實貨幣?

What is a bitcoin? What does it have to do with ordinary currency in circulation? Is investment in bitcoins a chance or a drop? Today, when virtual currency becomes popular, will they eventually replace real money?

  從網游玩家到千萬富翁

From Internet Players to Ten Millionaires

  賈華是北京萬千網游愛好者之一。此前在中關村一家私企做網絡推廣工作,喜歡動漫,最愛的網游是魔獸,曾經為了感受動漫氛圍專門跑到日本打工了半年。與普通玩家不同的是,他酷愛密碼學,雖然在"密吧"裡的解密成績隻能排在中上水平。

Java was one of the thousands of fans in Beijing. Previously at ?code=000931" /font, a private enterprise that works online, locomotively, and the favorite net tour is the monster, who used to work in Japan for six months to feel the mood.

  賈華的傳奇故事始於4年前。2008年,和北京如火如荼舉辦的第29屆奧運會同時,"密吧"一則不起眼的研究報告吸引了賈華的注意。一個化名叫中本聰的ID,在一個討論組上發表了自己對一種虛擬貨幣的構想,稱未來虛擬貨幣將大行其道,取代傳統貨幣的流通、支付等功能,而且要比傳統貨幣更加開放和便捷。"密吧"裡每天都有互聯網鐵粉發表各種基於網絡時代的"高見",所以這則報告得到的回應很普通,"獻花"和"拍磚"皆有之。

In 2008, in conjunction with the 29th Olympic Games, held in Beijing, a "secret" study attracted Java's attention. An ID named Nakbun, in a discussion group, published its own vision of a virtual currency, claiming that the future of a virtual currency would be a great alternative to the traditional currency's circulation, payment, etc., and that it would be much more open and convenient than the traditional currency. Every day there was an Internet-based view of the Internet.

  然而平日上班蔫蔫兒的賈華卻對這個貼子來了精神,此后一直關注並在貼吧裡和中本聰不斷探討著未來的"比特幣王國"。2009年,中本聰為比特幣系統建立了一個開放源代碼項目,這時已經有很多包括賈華在內的中國玩家參與了這個項目的跟進,正式宣告了比特幣的誕生。

However, Java, who worked for the day, was inspired by this post, and has been following it and discussing the future of the "Bit currency kingdom" with the attention of both the bar and China. In 2009, Nakamoto set up an open source code for the Bitcoin system, and many Chinese players, including Java, have been involved in this project, officially declaring the birth of the Bitcoin.

  "我們那會兒長期活躍在裡面的大概有一百多人,大家都非常迷戀這個運算的世界,是比特幣把我們聚集在了一起。"賈華說:"那會兒參與比特幣項目的玩家都是密碼學的愛好者。不像現在,直接用礦機就可以挖幣,完全是賺錢工具了。"

"There were about a hundred or so of us who lived there for a long time, and we were all very obsessed with the world of calculations, and it was bitcoins that brought us together." "Javell said, "The players in the bitcoin project were cryptographers. Unlike right now, they can dig money, they're money-making tools."

  談比特幣,離不開網絡數據庫。它使用遍布整個點對點網絡節點的分布式數據庫來記錄貨幣的交易,並使用密碼學的設計來確保貨幣流通各個環節安全性。用戶可以使用計算機依照規定的算法,進行大量的運算來獲得比特幣。

It uses distributed databases throughout the point-to-point network to record currency transactions and uses cryptographic designs to ensure the safety of currency circulation in all circles. Users can use calculators to do a lot of calculations to get Bitcoins in accordance with prescribed algorithms.

  "黃金礦工都玩過吧?打個比方,這種運算過程就像礦工開採黃金。不過是用計算機來開採。開採的前提是需要擁有大量數據,我們用電腦搜尋64位數字,通過反復解密,並在系統上和其他淘金者競爭,目的都是為比特幣網絡提供它需要的數據。"賈華說:"如果我的電腦通過排列組合解密,成功地制造出一組新的數字,就會獲得每10分鐘25個比特幣的獎勵。就跟魔獸練級打裝備一樣,最先開始的時候,裝備都是自己打的多,買的少。比特幣也一樣,都是自己挖,線上交易幣的玩家並不多。"

miners play? For example, this process is a gold miner's start. It's just a calculator. It starts on the premise that we need a lot of data, we use computers to search 64 numbers, we reverse decrypt them, and we compete with other predators to provide the numbers it needs on the system and with the Internet.

  然而從2010年開始,關注比特幣的人越來越多,而且從玩家心理,變成了一種切實利益的既得者。也就在這一年,比特幣開始實現了與實體商品的兌換,越來越多來自不同國家的商家開始接納比特幣。這種不依賴於特定中央發行機構的虛擬貨幣,從線上走到線下,不僅開始買賣流通,而且仿佛一夜間,成了緊俏貨。

Since 2010, however, more and more people have focused on bitcoins, and from player psychology have become a vested interest. In this same year, bitcoins have begun to trade with real goods, and more and more businesses from different countries have started to receive bitcoins.

  作為最初的玩家和關注者,比特幣與日愈增的魅力徹底把賈華征服了。除了"挖礦",他還把此前玩魔獸等網游買裝備的錢和每月工資的一半,全都用來零碎地交易比特幣。

As an initial player and watcher, Bitcoins and growing charisma conquered Java. In addition to "mining mines," he used all of the money he used to buy equipment and half of the monthly wages he used to sell bitcoins in a piecemeal manner.

  "主要是挖,是種樂趣嘛,不過老想湊個整數,就跟買彩票著魔似的,有錢就買點,有錢就買點,像飛行棋一樣,沉浸在自己的'大富翁'夢裡。沒想到,還真的夢想成真了。"

"It's mostly digging, it's fun, but it's like buying a lot of lottery tickets, buying some money, buying some money, like flying chess, immersing itself in a great-rich dream. I don't know, it's a dream come true."

  2010年7月17日,世界最大的比特幣交易網站MTGOX成立。

On 17 July 2010, the world's largest Bitcoin trading website, MTGOX, was launched.

  "那時候比特幣的價格還不到0.05美元。"賈華說:"除了我這樣的所謂資深玩家,交易的人都是玩的心態。網站的成立給了我很大鼓勵,而且從C2C的個人模式轉成官方平台,我買起來也方便很多。而且和幾個朋友一起開發了一些促進實體商品交易的小軟件。當然,我也是第一批用'挖礦機'挖幣的所謂'淘金人'。"

"That's less than $0.05 in bitcoins." "Jowal said, "As opposed to so-called deep players like me, the people who deal are playing. The website was very encouraging to me, and it was easier to buy from the C2C's personal model to the official platform. I also worked with a few friends to develop small software to facilitate trade in real-estate goods. Of course, I was the first to use the miner to dig money."

  2011年,比特幣一直蠢蠢欲動的暗流終於開始全面爆發。這一年,實體貨幣漲幅最高的是澳元,與美元兌換的漲幅率高達27%,然而比特幣與美元的兌換率,居然從0.5美元一路漲到了13美元,漲幅高達2600%!更讓人吃驚的是,MTGOX網站顯示,比特幣的總勢頭依然高歌猛進,從2011年到2012年到截至今年4月份,居然一路沖到了1︰266!

In 2011, the secret flow of Bitcoins, which had been so stupid, finally began to explode. The highest real currency increase in the year was the Australian dollar, with a 27% increase in dollar exchange, while Bitcoins and the dollar rose from 0.5 to $13, with an increase of 2,600%! Even more surprising is the fact that MTGOX shows that the capital of Bitcoins has continued to grow, and from 2011 to 2012 to April of this year, to 1.266!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  此時的賈華,幾年來已經囤積了大量的比特幣,不經意間居然成為了千萬富翁。

At that time, Java, which had accumulated a large amount of bitcoins over the years, had inadvertently become a millionaire.

  "就像一個夢一樣,某一天醒來發現自己成了公司裡最富有的人。當然,這個比喻不是很對,因為我和現在那些'挖礦人'不一樣,最初的最初,我並不是把比特幣當成賺錢工具的。就像看著一個孩子,你參與的付出讓他一天天茁壯成長,最后他自然地回報了你。"賈華說。

"As in a dream, one day wakes up and finds himself the richest man in the company. Of course, the metaphor is not right, because I'm not like the miner now, and I didn't use the bitcoin as a tool for making money in the first place. Like looking at a child, your participation makes him grow and grow every day, and he returns it naturally."

  曾經在同事眼中的賈華,貌不驚人,沉迷網游,雖然電腦方面有點"歪才",但工作起來總是一副沒睡醒的樣子。而如今的賈華,穿著蘋果綠的商務T恤衫,眼睛裡都能透出精光。他辭去了先前的工作,和一個互聯網的創業聯盟一起正在規劃新事業。每天都能和這些年輕的伙伴們為方案裡的一個細節爭論得面紅耳赤。可以說是比特幣點燃了他的激情,甚至改變了他的人生軌跡。

Java, once in the eyes of colleagues, was a little unfathomable, entangled in the Internet, but it always works like a green business shirt. Today, Jahua wears green business T-shirts, with a bright eye. He quit his previous job, and

"The most important thing for me is to be able to go to Japan at any time to see the latest cartoon, without having to worry about the cost of leaving the country as I did before. Of course, more importantly, I live every day and finally find the direction I want. "Jawald looks out the window, looks confident and young, as if he already has the world.

  完美貨幣?

Perfect currency?

  賈華只是個案之一,關鍵詞是興趣+幸運。無論怎樣,在這個互聯網時代,比特幣已經不可阻擋地受到越來越多的關注。

Java is just one case, and the key word is interest + luck. In any case, in this Internet age, bitcoins are getting more and more attention.

  通過賈華的介紹,記者來到亞運村一個80后為主體的創業會所。一進門,一隻漂亮的薩摩耶便過來歡迎。它叫蛋蛋,是會所合伙人小楊的愛犬。

Through Java's introduction, the journalist came to the 80-year-old font color="Royalblue" > /a >. Once in, a beautiful Samoye comes to welcome you. It's called an egg, and it's the love dog of the partner Jan.

  "蛋蛋是我在歐洲旅行時在一個互聯網愛犬之家買的,用的就是比特幣。"小楊對記者說。

"Eggs I bought in an Internet dog house on my trip to Europe. They used bitcoins." Little Jan said to the reporter.

  小楊畢業於北京聯合大學,在歐洲讀的碩士研究生。他在2010年春節前后"觸電"比特幣,很快便可以熟練地用它在網上購物。

Xiao Yang graduated from Beijing United University, a master's graduate school in Europe. He was able to use it for online shopping shortly before and after Spring 2010.

  "沒有手續費,到賬迅速,全球通用--它簡直就是完美貨幣。"小楊如是說。

"There's no money, there's no money, there's no money, there's no money, there's no money, there's no money, there's no money, there's no money, there's no money, there's no money, there's no money, there's no money, there's no money, there's no money, there's no money, there's no money, there's no money, there's no money, there's no money, there's no money, there's no money, there's no money, there's no money, there's no money, there's no money, there's no money, there's no money, there's no money, there's no money, there's no money.

  記者發現比特幣愛好者的一個特點,那就是天然的信任感。

The reporter found one of the things that bitcoins like: a natural sense of trust.

  因為比特幣凝結起來的朋友圈和購物圈裡,互相之間友好得不可思議,每個人聊起自己或聆聽別人的"比特史"時,都情不自禁帶著默契的微笑。

Because bitcoin is so close to each other in a circle of friends and shopping circles that everyone talks about themselves or listens to other people's "bitts".

  "知道塞浦路斯嗎?一個遙遠的歐洲小國。今年那兒的政府居然開始對儲戶的銀行存款征稅了,你猜怎麼著?當大家突然發現比特幣可以避稅和兌換美元時,塞浦路斯街頭居然出現了比特幣的提款機!"熟悉歐洲的小楊對記者講起了這段趣事,他周圍的幾位"比友"又發出了那種會意的笑。

"Know Cyprus? A distant European small country. This year the government started taxing the bank's deposits at ofont color="RoyalBlue" bank /font. And guess what? When people suddenly discovered that bitcoins could avoid taxes and exchange dollars, there was a bitcoach on the streets of Cyprus!

  新龐氏騙局?

New Ponzi fraud?

  樂觀者認為,比特幣是"硬通貨",悲觀者認為,它也許只是曇花一現的投機現象。

The optimists think that bitcoin is "hard currency" and the pessimists think that it may just be a drop-off.

  尤其在剛剛過去的這個四月。4月10日是個特殊的日子,圈內人不會忘記,就在比特幣毫無壓力漲到266美金的時候,在短短幾天迅猛跌到了50美金,此后又攀升到了140美金左右。在比特幣的對沖基金上,這個月份頻繁的交易量,達到了迄今為止的最高峰。

Especially in the past April. April 10 was a special day, when the ringers didn't forget that the Bitcoins had risen to $266 without any pressure, and fell to $50 in just a few days, and then climbed to about $140. At the Bitcoins confrontation /font>, the month’s heated transactions reached their peak to date.

  一位參與者對記者描述:"30美元之后就開始下跌,一下子從17打到了0.01!也就4個小時,比股票來得刺激多了。"

One participant described to the press: "Twenty dollars went down, hitting 0.01 from 17! Four hours, more exciting than /a>."

  完美貨幣?還是新龐氏騙局?就像刀可以救人也可以殺人一樣,經濟學家李稻葵認為,用途決定性質。如果購買者是真正喜歡它,覺得它能用能投資,那它就是一個正常的產品﹔如果投資者購買的目的並非使用或投資,而是純粹為了把這個產品在短期內以更高價格賣給下一個,它就是騙局。

Perfect currency? Or a New Ponzi scheme? Like a knife can save or kill, /font scholar Lee Rice Aoi argues that the use is determinative. If the buyer really likes it, he thinks it can invest, it is a normal product; if the investor buys it not for use or investment, but simply for selling the product to the next one at a higher price in the short term, it is a fraud.

  "它具有投機擁有的一切特點,盲從,突然,刺激,看似巨大美好的前景。但事實是,它的確缺乏強有力的金融體系給它支撐。"中國銀行的一位專家說,"甚至也許是龐氏騙局。不同的是,互聯網技術加上年輕人的激情,讓這個騙局包裝得更加時尚和完美。"

"It has everything special, blind, sudden, exciting, and looks like a great prospect." But the truth is that it lacks a strong financial system to support it." , an expert at the Chinese bank /a>, says, "even Ponzi. Differently, the Internet technique with the passion of young people makes the scheme more fashionable and perfect."

  投資還是投機?

Investment or investment?

  記者發現,支持比特幣的,大多是互聯網一代成長起來的年輕人。大部分專家學者,則對這種貨幣充滿了憂慮。

Journalists found that most of the supporters of the Bitcoin were young people who grew up from the Internet. Most of the experts were concerned about the currency.

  "比特幣價格這麼高,一點也不正常,它實際上是一種投機泡沫,就像最近的次危機,就僅僅從投機這個角度來講,每個人都可以成為發行者,都可以成為金融機構,也都可以成為買賣貨幣的,沒有任何規制的這麼一個交易者。"跟蹤研究比特幣幾年的北京安邦咨詢有限公司的劉梟這樣認為。

"Bet's price is so high and not so normal that it is actually an investment bubble, like the most recent /a> crisis, just from the perspective of the investment, everyone can become a distributor, a financial institution, or a dealer of any kind.

  如果是投機,為什麼比特幣在短短時間內能在全球范圍迅速被市場和人們所接受並追捧呢?

If so, why can bitcoins quickly be accepted and followed by markets and people around the globe in a short time?

  記者致電了金融研究領域的一位資深專家,他說:"比特幣發展迅速的根源是它'去中心化'的特征。然而當這種不受任何調控管制的貨幣發展到一定階段,問題幾乎是一定的。普通人只是投機,卻缺乏相關的專業知識,盲目跟風的最后一定是覆舟。"

The journalist called an expert in the field of financial research, who said, "The root cause of the rapid development of the bitcoins is its "decentralization" feature. But when this currency, which is not regulated by any regulation, reaches a certain stage, the problem is almost certain. Ordinary people just invest, but lack the relevant expertise, and blindness and wind must ultimately fail."

  李稻葵則試從投資者的角度解釋這種比特幣現象。"不到四年的時間,比特幣的市值從5美分漲到最高時的266美元,3年飛漲了5100倍,一方面,主權貨幣現在發行得太多,另一方面,反映了很多投資者對於主權貨幣的不信任,包括人民幣。"

"A href = http://finance.people.com.cn/money/BIG5/217431/index.html" explains this bitcoin from the investor's point of view." In less than four years, the market value of Bitcoins rose from $5 to $266 at its highest level, 5,100 times in three years. On the one hand, the main title currency is now issued too much, and on the other hand, it reflects the mistrust of many investors in the main title currency, including ."

  當然,也有人認為,比特幣得到市場熱捧的最終原因,是因為2100萬的上限。比特幣的"金礦"並非取之不盡。根據創始人中本聰的設計,比特幣的總量隻有2100萬個。而目前市場流行的"挖礦機",生產比特幣的速度是每10分鐘25個新比特幣。然而每到四年,比特幣的產出數量就會減半,直到達到數量上限。也就是說,隨著參與挖掘的人增多,每人能挖到的幣也會越來越少。

Of course, there are also those who believe that the ultimate reason for the market’s popularity is the 21 million cap. Bitcoin’s "gold mines" are not endless. According to the original design, the amount of bitcoins is only 21 million.

  下一個比特幣

  不能不說,中本聰當年的手筆有著一定的智慧和韜略。甚至可以說是野心,因為在他的設計之初,便意利用網絡工具去對抗現有的貨幣體系。

It can be said, however, that there was a certain amount of wisdom and contemplation in the handwriting of Nakamoto. It could even be called ambition, because at the beginning of his design used Internet tools to counter the existence of currency systems.

  實體貨幣具備支付、流通、價值尺度、世界貨幣和貯藏手段五大特性,以比特幣目前的定位,虛擬貨幣已經成功上位,輕鬆實現了以上內容。而且相比實體貨幣,市場屬性更加突出,民間運作的自由度、主動性和用戶個人的私密空間度更強。

In the current position of Bitcoins, the virtual currency has been brought to the top, making it easier to realize the above. Moreover, market properties are more prominent than real currencies, and the freedom, mobility, and privacy of private users are more powerful than the freedom of the private sector to operate.

  比如壹基金接受比特幣捐款,與普通貨幣的捐款不同,截止到4月底,從捐款網站上可以清楚看到82和233的字樣。82是數量,已經有了82筆捐款﹔233是總量,就是233個比特幣,也就是約20萬左右人民幣的捐款。捐款非常透明,但它同時也是匿名的,因為一點也不會透露捐款人的信息。

A fund, for example, receives bitcoins, unlike ordinary coins, and by the end of April, 82 and 233 words were clearly visible on its website. 82 contributions were in number, and 233 were in total, or about 200,000. Contributions were transparent, but at the same time they were anonymous, because they did not reveal donors at all.

  其原理是,每一個擁有網絡客戶端的人,都可以查到全世界所有即時產生的比特幣交易,但卻無法得知這筆交易從哪兒來,到哪兒去,用作什麼。有點像半匿名,比如有人知道你的賬戶地址,一定設置前提下,可以看到有人付錢給你,也能看到你在收錢,但他們永遠無法得知,是誰給你付錢,你又給誰打了錢。

The principle is that every person with an Internet client can trace all instantaneous bitcoin transactions around the world, but they can't know where they came from, where they went, what they were used for. It's kind of like half anonymous, like someone who knows your account address, has to set a premise that someone pays you and sees you receiving money, but they never know who's paying you and who you're giving money to.

  這種透明卻隱私自由的市場流通,聽著就像一個理想的貨幣國度。相信中本聰及其支持者心中構建的就是這樣一個理想而自由的世界。他們以計算機為體,網絡為媒,試圖以這種方式創造和激活一個理想的時代。

This transparent, but private, market circulation sounds like an ideal currency country. It is the ideal and free world that is built in the hearts of China’s listeners and their supporters. They try to create and activate an ideal age in this way, using calculators and networks as media.

  也許,這才是虛擬貨幣的真正誘人之處。比友們天然信任和默契十分的微笑,仿佛就是那個"大同世界"。

Perhaps that's the true attraction of virtual currency. More natural trust and a smile than friends, as if it were the "Big World."

  一定會有下一個比特幣。也許,虛擬時代,已經不動聲色揭開了裡面輕財富世界裡的一小角。坐等盛宴。

There's gonna be the next bitcoin. Maybe, in virtual times, there's a small corner in the world /font> . Sit and wait for the feast.

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