比特币逼近28000美元，灰度“闭关”散户接盘
华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 王永菲 冉学东 北京报道
Washington Times (www.chinatimes.net.cn), journalist Wang Yongfei, Beijing report
根据加密资产管理公司灰度官方Twitter日常资产管理规模更新，12月24日灰度资产管理总规模为163亿美元，相比12月23日资产管理总规模为164亿美元有所下降，但过去一周资产管理总规模整体变化来看上涨超过4%。
According to an update on the scale of the daily asset management on official Twitter by the Cryptographic Asset Management Company, the total size of asset management on 24 December was $16.3 billion, down from $16.4 billion on 23 December, but the overall change in the overall size of asset management over the past week shows an increase of more than 4 per cent.
图片来源：Grayscale官方twitter
当周灰度宣布暂时停止对旗下6家信托基金的投资，分别为比特币、以太坊、比特币现金、以太坊经典、莱特币及其数字大盘信托基金，将持续至2021年1月底。在停止接受投资期间，比特币价格已经逼近28000美元，有分析师预测，比特币该轮上涨价格很快会突破30000美元。
At the end of January 2021, when Thérèse announced a temporary suspension of investment in the six trust funds under the flag, it would last until the end of January 2021 for Bitcoin, Etheria, Bitcoin in cash, Ethercopics, Leitcoin, and its digital large trust. The price of Bitcoin was already close to $28,000 during the cutoff, with analysts predicting that it would soon be over $30,000.
灰度“闭关”BTC直逼28000美元
Greyscale "Close" BTC straight to $28,000
灰度资本不停的增持十种加密信托基金，发生资产管理总规模下降的主要因素就是每份加密货币信托的日常价格变动，本报记者注意到，近一周以来，10月24日相比前一日下降的主要因素是受到XRP价格大幅下跌的影响，XRP信托基金资产管理总额从10月21日的50.37美元/每份腰斩至10月24日24.67美元/每枚，而其他币种每份信托的价格波动不大。该变化与近日美国SEC计划起诉Ripple，指控其出售XRP违反投资者保护法关系密切。
The main factor in the overall decline in asset management is the change in the daily price of each encrypted currency trust, which, according to journalists in this paper, has been the sharp fall in the price of XRP on 24 October in recent weeks, with the total asset management of the XRP Trust Fund amounting to $50.37 per loaf on 21 October and $24.67 per cent on 24 October, while the prices of each trust in other currencies have fluctuated less than the recent US SEC plan to sue Ripple for alleged violations of investor protection laws.
本报记者了解到，灰度会定期关闭其加密货币信托基金，以进行 "私募 "融资，比特币基金的禁售期为6个月，在这个期限结束后，投资者可以将这些基金出售给散户，以进行“非公开配售”，而机构资金入市可能减缓，比特币价格或会受到影响。灰度今年已经两次暂停接受投资的时间，每次维持一个月，上次是今年6月底到7月底。灰度之所以暂停投资是因为上个半年周期的GBTC要开始解禁了，然后市场上的GBTC会变多，GBTC持有者解禁后套利完毕，一般需要在市场上买回比特币。一般历史上暂停投资期后GBTC溢价会变低。
The newspaper reporter learned that Greyscale would regularly close its encrypt currency trust fund for &quat; private fund-raising & & quot; finance, with the Bitcoin fund being closed for six months, after which investors could sell the funds to the diaspora for “closed distribution”, and that institutional access might slow down and Bitcoin prices might be affected. Greyscale had two suspensions this year, one month at a time, the last one at the end of June to the end of July. The Greyscale suspension was due to the fact that the GBTC of the previous six-month cycle was about to be lifted, then the GBTC on the market would become larger, and the GBTC holders would have to buy back the GBTC premium once they had been released, usually after the usual historical suspension of the investment period.
据悉，灰度信托基金定价规则为，加密信托基金会按照纽约时间下午4点每个数字资产的TradeBlock指数所决定。一直以来，市场对灰度信托基金二级市场的溢价率颇为关注，截止发文，GBTC（ 注：GBTC/股代表0.00095336枚比特币）二级市场溢价率为24.18%，ETHE为169.55%，ETC为47.25%，而BCH与LTC的溢价率分别为惊人的1375.10%与2953.83%，以上资产为用户可在OTCQX.US（二级市场）交易的资产。
It was informed that the Greyscale Trust Fund pricing rule was that the Encrypted Trust Fund would be based on the TradeBlock index for each digital asset at 4 p.m. New York time. The market has been concerned about the premium rate for the Greyscale Trust Fund secondary market, which, as of the date of issuance, was 24.18 per cent for the GBTC (note: GBTC/Unit on behalf of 0.000955336 Bitcoins), 169.55 per cent for ETHE and 47.25 per cent for ETC, while BCH and LTC had an alarming premium of 1375.10 per cent and 2933.83 per cent, respectively, for assets that could be traded by their users in OTCQ.US (secondary market).
所谓溢价的出现，一是因为6-12个月的锁仓期在公开市场上，投资者在禁售期寻求补偿；另外美国投资者很多收入被存在401（K）和IRA退休方案中，投资者想要用这些资金投资加密货币，唯一途径就是购买GBTC和ETHE等产品。这增加了信托产品的购买需求，因此增加了这些资产的价格；除此之外，很多投资者还要保护自己免受美联储实施的激进量化宽松政策的影响。随着债务引发的泡沫不断加剧，投资者正转向使用加密资产，以防止即将来临的通胀导致美元贬值。
The so-called premium arose because six to 12 months of lock-down periods were on the open market, and investors sought compensation during the no-sales period; in addition to the fact that much of the US investor’s income was covered by the 401 (K) and IRA retirement schemes, the only way that investors wanted to use those funds to encrypt currency was to buy products such as GBTC and ETHE. This increased the purchase demand for trust products, thereby increasing the price of those assets; in addition, many investors were also protecting themselves from the aggressive quantitative easing policies imposed by the Fed. As debt-induced bubbles increased, investors were turning to the use of encrypted assets to prevent impending inflation from leading to a depreciation of the dollar.
市场投资主力或在转变
Market investment or transformation
不过，即便灰度关闭维持一周的加密货币信托基金交易，但是比特币价格仍旧不断刷新历史高点。截止发文，比特币价格在27900美元附近震荡，比特币市值占总市值达70%，总市值突破5100亿美元。
However, even if the greyscale shuts down a week-long encrypt currency trust fund transactions, bitcoin prices continue to refresh historical highs. By the time of writing, Bitcoin prices had stunned around $27,900, its market value had reached 70 per cent of the total market value and its total market value had exceeded $51 billion.
OKEx Research 研究员向本报记者表示，比特币近期的快速上涨，可能与大家想到的投机或炒作原因不一样，投机和炒作成分确实存在，但不是主要原因。直接原因来自于高净值和机构投资者的入场，自今年下半年以来，诸如美国保险巨头万通人寿保险公司、商业分析公司MicroStrategy等机构纷纷买入比特；而在线支付巨头PayPal、新加坡最大的商业银行星展银行也纷纷宣布将推出加密货币支付服务。
OKEx Research suggests to journalists in this newspaper that the recent rapid rise in Bitcoin may not be the reason for speculation or speculation, but it does exist, but it is not the main reason. The direct reason comes from the entry of high net worth and institutional investors, and since the second half of this year, agencies such as the American Insurance Giant Lives Insurance Corporation, the Business Analysis Company MicroStrategy, have been buying bits; and online payments to giant PayPal, Singapore’s largest commercial bank Star show, have announced the introduction of an encrypted money payment service.
据Bitcoin Treasuries数据显示，目前超过69亿美元的比特币由上市公司持有，由此带来了比特币市场的繁荣。
According to Bitcoin Treasuries, more than $6.9 billion in bitcoins are currently held by listed companies, thus bringing prosperity to the Bitcoin market.
OKEx Research 研究员表示，传统机构大量买入比特币，其背后的深层次原因是今年全球宏观经济形势变化。一方面，受疫情的影响，未来一年里全球经济复苏减缓；另一方面，央行推出极度宽松的货币政策推高金融市场的通胀预期。高通胀、低增长的经济环境下，为了规避名义本金的受损，以及追求更高收益的需要，投资者囤积现金的需求自然演变成对黄金和比特币的需求。
On the one hand, as a result of the epidemic, global economic recovery has slowed in the coming year; on the other hand, central banks have introduced extremely liberal monetary policies that push inflation expectations in financial markets. In a high-inflation, low-growth economic environment, and in order to avoid the loss of nominal principals and the need to pursue higher returns, investors’ cash accumulation needs have naturally evolved into demand for gold and bitcoins.
在今年9月接受彭博社的专访时，MicroStrategy CEO表示：“未来的年均通胀率将达到20%，极大地削弱了购买力，持有比特币比持有现金的风险更小。目前，比特币是唯一能让我们获得正收益的资产。”
In September of this year, when he was interviewed by Bloomberg, MicroStrategy CEO said, “The average annual inflation rate will reach 20% in the future, significantly reducing purchasing power, and holding bitcoin is less risky than holding cash. For now, Bitcoin is the only asset that will give us a positive gain.”
实事求是地说，从运用角度看，人们的日常生活基本不会受比特币影响，包括很多比特币爱好者提到的“跨境支付”，在实际运用时也会面临很多监管方面的问题。然而，比特币背后所代表的“数字载体”货币形态、“Code is law”的经济思想，将会毫不避免地对全球货币体系产生影响，最终影响到人们日常生活的方方面。例如Facebook推出的Libra正是该上述新态势的真实写照。它们至少让各国央行意识到，非主权货币对本国主权货币的威胁是真实存在的，为此，必须保证本国货币的竞争力，例如维持其购买力，发展本国的央行数字货币等，OKEx Research 研究员认为。
In practical terms, people’s daily lives are largely unaffected by bitcoins, including “cross-border payments” as mentioned by many bitcoins. However, the “digital carrier” monetary shape behind bitcoins, the “Code is law” economic thinking will inevitably affect the global monetary system, ultimately affecting all aspects of people’s daily lives.
对于比特币后市走势，OKEx Research 研究员表示，从目前的市场情况而言，比特币正逐渐从“另类投资品”向“数字黄金”的定位转变。可以说，本轮比特币牛市，是高通胀预期下的产物。对于机构投资者，在乎的是利润，而非“比特币信仰”或“区块链革命”这类情怀。在疫苗上市，疫情得到逐渐缓解后，随着经济的逐渐复苏，货币政策也将逐渐由宽松转为适度紧缩。届时，机构投资者可能会抛售比特币。在这之前，比特币总体上仍会保持上涨的主要趋势，当然随着比特币价格越来越高，市场的波动也会逐渐放大，不建议投资者加过高的杠杆。
With respect to post-bitcoin developments, the OKEx Research Fellows have indicated that, from the current market situation, Bitcoin is gradually shifting from an “other type of investment” to a “digital gold” position. It can be said that this round of Bitcoin’s cattle is the product of high-inflation expectations.
对于向进入比特币市场的投资者而言，OKEx Research 研究员提醒，当比特币价格突破2万美元大关后，大量投资者开始涌入加密货币市场，一度造成部分加密货币交易所出现卡顿或宕机现象。这表明市场的投资主力可能会出现结构性变化，由机构投资者转向中小投资者。市场的亢奋狂热情绪进一步被放大，可能会导致比特币价格出现大的波动，希望市场投资者保持理性，不要随便加杠杆。
For investors entering the Bitcoin market, the OKEx Research Fellow warned that, when Bitcoin prices crossed the 20,000-dollar mark, a large number of investors began to flood into the encrypted currency market, causing some of the encrypted currency exchanges to have cartons or crashes. This suggests that the market’s investment power may change structurally, shifting from institutional investors to small and medium-sized investors.
责任编辑：孟俊莲 主编：冉学东
Responsible Editor: Mon Jun-Lian, Editor-in-Chief: Peng Xiaodong
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