比特币的长期价格将趋于零
图片来源：视觉中国
Image source: Visual China
原标题：【观点】比特币的长期价格将趋于零
Original title: The long-term price of Bitcoin will be zero
一、比特币的应用场景与强监管风险
i. Bitcoin application scene and strong regulatory risk
1.1比特币是完美的违法交易支付工具
1.1 bitcoin is the perfect tool for the payment of illegal transactions
比特币最大的作用是什么？我们可以通过一个简单的比特币应用场景来解释比特币的作用。
What's the biggest role of bitcoin? We can explain bitcoin's role through a simple bitcoin application.
设想地球上任意地点不碰面的两个人，双方在任意时间，不通过银行或其他可信第三方，不使用任何国家流通的法定货币，成功产生支付行为。这件事在比特币诞生之前，基本不可能实现，而比特币诞生后则变得轻而易举，这就是比特币的应用场景。
The two individuals who were supposed not to meet anywhere on Earth, at any time, through banks or other credible third parties, and without using the legal currency in any country, succeeded in producing payment acts. This was virtually impossible before Bitcoin was born, and it became easy to do when Bitcoin was born, and that was the case for Bitcoin.
这个应用场景有价值吗？
Does this application have any value?
是否有价值的关键在于使用者的身份。
The key to value lies in the identity of the user.
如果用户是一个普通人，相对于目前成熟的中心化支付系统，比特币的应用场景几乎是毫无实际价值的。
If the user is an ordinary person, the Bitcoin application scenario is of little practical value compared to the current mature centralized payment system.
但如果用户在从事任意违法活动时需要一个安全的支付渠道，那么这个应用场景是趋于完美的。比特币的点对点直接交易、匿名账户、任意创建钱包地址等特点，绕开了一切监管部门，可以理解为一种沿着网络流动的黄金、钻石。在传统的好莱坞电影中，毒贩、黑市军火商、绑架犯们从事交易时，通常使用钻石、黄金、现金等政府无法监管流向的支付方式，而比特币可以让这一切更简单，双方甚至不需要见面。
In traditional Hollywood movies, drug dealers, black market arms dealers, kidnappers, and so on, usually use methods such as diamonds, gold, cash, etc. that the government cannot regulate the flow of payments, and bitcoin can make it easier for both parties to meet.
而现实世界中，第一批意识到比特币价值并积极使用比特币的确实是违法犯罪分子。2013年10月FBI查抄毒品买卖网站“丝路”，获得14万4千枚比特币；2015年9月香港富商黄煜坤外出就餐被绑架，绑匪要求使用比特币支付赎金；2017年5月，黑客盗走一部尚未上映的迪士尼电影，并向迪士尼勒索比特币赎金；2017年5月wannacry勒索病毒爆发，至少150个国家、30万名用户中招，黑客勒索比特币赎金，wannacry控制者向超过30万人进行勒索后逍遥法外，现实世界比我们想象的更魔幻。
In the real world, the first criminals to realize the value of bitcoin and actively use bitcoin were indeed criminals. In October 2013, the FBI raided the drug-trading website & ldquo; Silk Road & rdquo; received 144,000 bitcoins; in September 2015, Hong Kong’s wealthy businessman Huang Qun was taken out to dinner and the kidnappers demanded a ransom in bitcoin; in May 2017, hackers stole an unpublished Disney film and demanded a ransom for bitcoin from Disney; in May 2017, the virus broke out in Wannacry, with at least 150 countries and 300,000 users, and the hackers extorted bitcoin for ransom, and the Hunnacry controllers went free of ransom to more than 300,000 people.
1.2政府放任或禁止比特币流通的关键
作为一种对违法犯罪行为具有突破性意义的新技术，比特币天然面临被政府机构强监管的风险，而政府机构对待比特币的态度无非监管、放任、禁止三种。
As a new technology that is ground-breaking for criminal offences, Bitcoin is naturally at risk of being strongly regulated by government agencies, which treats bitcoin in an ad hoc, discretionary and proscriptive manner.
但央行等货币管理部门将很快发现，监管比特币完全不具有可操作性。中本聪设计比特币，就是为了创造一种完全点对点、不依靠任何金融机构、无需第三方支持的电子现金，从这一点来看，比特币确实成功了。中国央行可以雷霆手段封杀ICO和叫停境内加密货币交易所，本质上是因为ICO是中心化行为、交易所是中心化组织，都是能监管的，但比特币并不存在中心、交易双方完全匿名，这导致无法通过中心的配合来监管比特币。
But monetary authorities like central banks will soon find that the regulation of bitcoins is not operational at all. The design of bitcoins in China was designed to create a complete match, without any financial institutions, and without the need for third-party support.
就像美国政府完全无法确保合法持枪的人开的每一枪都合法，一张美元现金被用于合法支付或非法支付也完全不可监管，当政府发现完全不可能监管比特币交易时，只能选择放任或禁止比特币交易。
Just as the United States Government is simply unable to ensure that every gun fired by a legitimate holder is legal, and that a dollar cash is used for legal or illegal payments is completely unsupervised, when the Government finds it completely impossible to regulate the Bitcoin transaction, it has the option of allowing or prohibiting the Bitcoin transaction.
中国禁枪但不禁止菜刀，枪和菜刀的区别是什么？在中国城市治安情况足够好的前提下，普通人离开了枪几乎没有实质损失，同时整个社会的安全性得到了提升。而如果普通人的生活离开了菜刀，吃饭都是一个问题。
China does not prohibit guns, but it does not prohibit knives. The difference between guns and knives.
政府封杀或放任比特币流通，关键在于比特币是否可以对普通人的生活产生足够大的积极影响，普通人越离不开比特币，则比特币自身越安全。比特币如果能全面切入流通领域，提升普通人的支付效率，则比特币的作用将类似菜刀；而比特币如果依然游离于普通人生活之外，主要受到犯罪分子、投机分子、理想主义者、无政府主义者支持，用于违法交易支付或投机炒作，则比特币的结局将类似枪支。
The key is whether Bitcoin can have a sufficiently positive impact on ordinary people’s lives, the more secure it is. Bitcoin will play a similar role if it can fully cut into circulation and improve ordinary people’s pay efficiency; and Bitcoin will end up with a similar gun if it remains outside ordinary people’s lives, supported mainly by criminals, speculators, idealists, anarchists, and used in illicit transactions to pay or speculators.
比特币由于违法犯罪分子的刚需，相当于手里抱着一个随时可能爆炸的政府强监管定时炸弹，而比特币自救的关键是全面进入普通人生活。
Bitcoin, because of the needs of criminals in conflict with the law, is like holding a government-controlled time bomb that could explode at any time, while the key to Bitcoin's own rescue is full access to ordinary life.
比特币可能全面切入流通领域，成为一种真正的货币吗？
Is it possible that bitcoin could be fully integrated into the area of circulation and become a real currency?
二、人类需要怎样的货币，比特币的经济学风险
II. What money humans need, the economic risk of Bitcoin
我的结论是比特币完全不可能成为一种真正的货币，比特币的缺点和它的优点一样明显。
My conclusion is that Bitcoin is simply not a real currency, and its shortcomings are as obvious as its merits.
货币的本质是提升人与人交易效率的中介、媒介、手段（货币的交换媒介职能）。由于货币成为了交易的中介，所以人们也使用货币去衡量可交易商品、服务的内在价值（货币的计价单位职能），同时愿意持有一定数量的货币以为未来的交易做准备（货币的价值储藏职能）。
The essence of money is that it is an intermediary, medium, means of improving the efficiency of people-to-people transactions (the function of the money-exchange medium). As money becomes an intermediary in transactions, money is also used to measure the intrinsic value of tradable goods and services (the unit function of the currency) and is willing to hold a certain amount of money in preparation for future transactions (the value-storage function of the currency).
2.1人类需要可以无限增发的货币
2.1 Humans need money that can be increased indefinitely
人类使用的货币形态、形式一直在变化，但每一次人类抛弃旧的货币，使用新的货币，原因只有一个，新的货币可以为人类社会提供更高的交易效率。人类抛弃金本位，不再使用黄金作为货币，本质上是因为黄金的开采量增速完全跟不上人类商品与服务产能的增速，当黄金产量不足限制了交易效率时，人类毫不犹豫地抛弃了金本位。
The currency patterns and forms that humans use have been changing, but every time they abandon old currencies and use new ones, there is only one reason why new currencies can provide a more efficient trade in human society. Humans abandon the gold standard and no longer use gold as a currency, in essence because gold is being mined at a rate that does not keep pace with the growth in the capacity of human goods and services, and humans do not hesitate to abandon the gold standard when the production of gold is insufficient to limit the efficiency of the trade.
根据费雪方程式，货币总量（M）乘以货币流通速度（V）等于商品的平均价格（P）乘以总交易商品量（T），即MV=PT。
According to the Fitch equation, the currency total (M) multiplied by the currency circulation rate (V) is equal to the average price of the commodity (P) multiplied by the total traded commodity volume (T), i.e. MV = PT.
现实世界中，我们假设货币流动速度（V）较为稳定，这个假设基于美国1960-2010年名义GDP、货币量与货币流通速度统计；假设政府希望维持物价稳定以避免通货膨胀或通货紧缩影响经济增长，即商品平均价格（P）较为稳定；同时假设科技进步将使商品产能不断增长，人口增长将提高服务供应量，即总交易商品量（T）将随着时间不断增长。那么最后的结论是，随着产能增长，人类需要越来越大的货币总量（M）。
In the real world, we assume that the pace of currency flows (V) is more stable, based on statistics of nominal GDP, currency volume and currency circulation in the United States for the period 1960-2010; that the government wants to maintain price stability in order to avoid inflation or deflation affecting economic growth, i.e. the average price of commodities (P); and that scientific and technological progress will increase commodity production, and that population growth will increase the supply of services, i.e. the total volume of traded goods (T) will grow over time. The final conclusion is that, as production capacity grows, humanity will need an ever-increasing monetary aggregate (M).
由于比特币的总量固定，无法无限量增发，这导致比特币无法满足人类随着产能增长对于货币总量越来越大的需求，这将严重影响以比特币为中介的交易效率，结果是比特币无法全面切入流通领域，比特币永远不可能成为一种真正的货币。
Because the amount of bitcoins is fixed and cannot increase indefinitely, this makes bitcoins unable to meet the growing demand for money aggregates as capacity grows, which will seriously affect the efficiency of the transactions brokered by bitcoins, resulting in Bitcoins not being able to fully enter the circulation area and Bitcoins never becoming a real currency.
2.2比特币以通货紧缩对抗通货膨胀
比特币追求总量固定，实际上牺牲的是以比特币衡量的物价稳定，即以比特币衡量的物价长期来看处于不断下降之中（表现在随着持有人增多，比特币兑美元价格处于上升趋势），这被称为通货紧缩。
Bitcoin, which seeks to fix the total, is actually sacrificed by price stability as measured by bitcoin, that is, prices as measured by bitcoin are declining over the long term (expressed in the upward trend of bitcoin against the United States dollar as the number of holders increases), which is called deflation.
幸运的是目前没有任何一个国家把比特币作为强制流通的法币，所以比特币通货紧缩的危害表现为，当比特币价格高到超过投机者预期后变的有价无市，于是交易成交价自然回落。我们假设存在一个以比特币为法币的比特币王国，当比特币王国面临严重通货紧缩后，比特币王国的居民们纷纷移民。而比特币王国居民减少、比特币王国的新增移民较富裕，都可以在一段时间内支撑比特币王国继续通货紧缩下去，直到下一轮居民外逃。
Fortunately, no country currently uses bitcoin as a currency for compulsory circulation, so the danger of bitcoin deflation is that when bitcoin prices are so high as to become unmarketable after speculators expect, the transaction price will fall. We assume that there is a bitcoin-denominated bitcoin kingdom, where the residents of bitcoin emigrate when the bitcoin kingdom faces severe deflation.
有部分比特币的支持者指出，虽然比特币的总量固定，但由于比特币可以无限切割的独特性，所以总量固定的比特币仍然可以满足人类对于货币总量不断增长的需求，即一枚比特币也足够全人类使用，比特币不会出现通货紧缩的问题。
Some of the supporters of Bitcoin point out that while the amount of bitcoin is fixed, because of the unique nature of bitcoin that can be cut indefinitely, the fixed amount of bitcoin can still meet the growing demand of humankind for the total amount of money, that is, that one bitcoin is sufficient for all, and that there is no deflation in bitcoin.
这种观点强调了比特币的特殊性（作为与传统法币截然不同的纯数字货币，可以通过升级实现几乎无限切割），但毫无疑问并不理解通货紧缩。当经济发展导致市场上流动的货币量不足时，央行会选择向市场注入更多的货币以确保物价稳定和流动性充足。当比特币供不应求时，比特币并不会按用户的需求增发，而是选择切割比特币，即假设以前人们每次用一枚比特币买一个披萨，而之后人们用十分之一、百分之一、千分之一枚比特币买同一个披萨。目前最小可以交易一亿分之一枚比特币，即一聪，我相信现实生活中没有人支付过一亿分之一元人民币，但你确实可以这样支付比特币，虽然从目前比特币交易费的角度来看完全不经济。
When economic development leads to an insufficient amount of money flowing in the market, central banks choose to inject more money into the market to ensure price stability and liquidity. When bitcoin is not needed, Bitcoin does not increase to the needs of the user, but rather chooses to cut bitcoins, assuming that people used to buy a pizza with one bitcoin each time, and then one tenth, one-thousand bitcoins with one tenth, one-thousand bitcoins.
当比特币供不应求时，切割比特币与增发比特币的区别是什么？
What is the difference between cutting bitcoin and adding bitcoin when bitcoin is not needed?
区别是导致人们的预期不同。人们将很快意识到，使用比特币的人越多，则每一枚比特币越值钱，因此理智的行为是囤积比特币，例如币安交易所的创始人赵长鹏，“我一般是收到法币时，就一次性全部买成比特币。然后需要消费时，就卖一个币”。
The difference is one that leads to different expectations. People will soon realize that the more people use bitcoins, the more each bitcoins are worth, so the rational act is to hoard bitcoins, such as the founder of the currency exchange, Zhao Changjun, & ldquo; I usually buy all bitcoins once when I receive them. Then, when I need to consume them, I sell a coin & rdquo;
看涨并选择长期持有比特币，对比特币而言带来的问题是什么？
What is the problem for bitcoin in view of rising and opting for long-term possession of bitcoin?
是比特币失去流动性，比特币变得不像一种货币，而像传家宝，很多比特币持有者可能就是把比特币作为传家宝来看的。“线上黄金”是很多比特币支持者对于比特币的比喻，然而黄金已经不再是流通货币了。而如果比特币退出流通领域，政府全面封杀比特币就没有任何心理负担。
It is Bitcoin that has lost liquidity, bitcoin that has become unlike a currency, and like a family heirloom, many bitcoin holders may be looking at bitcoin as a family heirloom. And & ldquo; gold on the line & rdquo; is the metaphor of many bitcoin supporters for bitcoin, but gold is no longer a currency in circulation.
很多比特币支持者认为比特币严格的数量上限是优点，然而我认为这导致了比特币不可能成为真正的货币，比特币只可能是一种玩具货币。
Many bitcoin supporters believe that a strict quantitative cap on bitcoin is an advantage, but I think that makes bitcoin unlikely to be a real currency, and bitcoin could only be a toy currency.
2.3能无限增发的货币并不必然带来超发
2.3 Unlimited increases in currency do not necessarily result in excess.
很多比特币的支持者认为比特币可以使普通人对抗通货膨胀和政府滥发货币。问题是，当比特币对抗通货膨胀的方法是通货紧缩时，这个成本社会是否能承受？政府有能力无限增发货币，是否就一定会超发？
A lot of Bitcoin supporters argue that bitcoin can help ordinary people to fight inflation and government currency abuses. The question is, if Bitcoin’s anti-inflationary approach is deflationary, will this cost society be able to afford it?
人类最初使用具有内在价值的商品货币（黄金、白银），问题在于政府无法控制货币供应量，当金银供应量不足时经济陷入通货紧缩，例如明朝末年银荒时期，顾炎武记载，陕西丰收，民众卖妻卖子筹银纳税。
The problem with the initial use of commodity currencies of intrinsic value (gold, silver) is that the Government has no control over the supply of money and that when the supply of gold and silver is insufficient, the economy is in a state of deflation, such as during the last year's silver years, the war record, the harvest and the sale of silver by the people.
当人类抛弃金本位，使用不具有内在价值的法定货币时，政府意识到自己有了点石成金的能力。通过印钞机，政府可以将印钞纸变为具有真实购买力的法币，拥有独立法币的国家似乎都有了点石成金的能力，然而为什么世界上依然有大量贫穷国家存在？彭博社2016年4月报道，委内瑞拉央行已经无钱印钞，问题出在哪里？
When humans abandon the gold standard and use legal currencies that do not have intrinsic value, the government realizes that it has the ability to make a few stones. By printing banknotes, the government can turn paper into a genuinely purchasing currency, and countries with independent French coins seem to have the capacity to make a few stones, but why is there still a large number of poor countries in the world?
根据人类实践和历史教训，政府超发货币，长期来看只会导致超速通货膨胀，经济中流通的货币量增加了，但是经济中的商品与劳务的产量并不会按比例增加（长期分析中存在货币中性），人类需要消费的是真实的商品与劳务，人类并不能靠吃法币维持生命。
According to human practice and historical lessons, the excess currency of government can only lead in the long term to hyperinflation and an increase in the amount of money in circulation in the economy, but production of goods and services in the economy does not increase proportionately (and monetary neutrality is present in the long-term analysis). What humans need to consume is real goods and services, and humans cannot sustain their lives by eating French coins.
长期分析中，政府大量超发货币，带来必然的超速通货膨胀，国民经济陷入崩溃，经济危机导致政治危机，最终政权垮台。我们假设政府希望能维持政权，则政府会自发克制超发货币的冲动。点石成金看上去很好，但它的代价没有哪个理性的政府能承受，所以大部分国家在克制的应用法币，现实世界中大部分国家超发货币的问题并不严重。
In a long-term analysis, the government’s massive excess currency has brought about the inevitable hyperinflation, the collapse of the national economy, the economic crisis that led to the political crisis, and the eventual collapse of the regime. Assuming that the government wants to maintain power, the government will automatically restrain the impulse of the excess currency.
当有人向你宣传比特币可以对抗通货膨胀时，想想明朝末年的银荒。
When you are told that bitcoin can fight inflation, think of the silver waste of the last year.
当有人向你宣传比特币可以对抗政府滥发货币时，你可以想想无钱印钞的委内瑞拉央行，再想想政府是否一定会超发货币。
When you have been told that bitcoin can counter government currency abuses, you can think of the central bank of Venezuela, which has no money to print, and whether the government is bound to overdo it.
2.4一个国家不需要多种货币，比特币强制使用场景的缺乏
2.4 A country does not need multiple currencies, and the absence of a mandatory Bitcoin scenario
很多比特币的支持者提出哈耶克的竞争货币理论，指出比特币与法币的竞争可以改善法币，比特币与山寨币的竞争可以改善比特币。然而他们没有意识到，货币可能是一种具有天然垄断性的特殊商品。
Many of the supporters of Bitcoin have advanced Hayek’s theory of competitive currency, suggesting that bitcoin and French currency competition can improve French currency, and bitcoin and hillcoins can improve bitcoins. Yet they do not realize that money may be a special commodity with a natural monopoly.
一定区域、一个国家范围内的所有人，只使用同一种货币可以达到最高的交易效率，因为现代货币的本质是交易中介，只使用一种中介远比使用多种中介的交易效率高。只有在币值波动剧烈等极端情况下，本币丧失了交易中介的职能时，人们才会选择使用替代货币。例如津巴布韦政府2009年废除了本国货币津巴布韦元，改为流通美元等9种货币，为了对抗之前经济中存在的超速通货膨胀，津巴布韦人民只能牺牲交易效率而使用多种货币。
For example, in 2009, the Zimbabwean government abolished its national currency, Zimbabwe dollars, and changed it to nine currencies, such as the United States dollar, and, in order to counter the pre-existing hyper-inflationary economy, Zimbabweans would have to use multiple currencies at the expense of the efficiency of their transactions.
货币是人与人交易的中介，语言、文字是人与人交流的中介，如果14亿中国人使用14亿种不同的语言，结果类似于中国人失去了说话的能力，混合使用多种中介只会降低效率。理论上全人类使用同一种货币、同一种语言、同一种文字是最优解，然而现实中不可行，因为使用同一种货币需要在政治、经济上达成共识（欧盟和欧元的时间先后顺序），使用同一种语言、文字需要在文化、价值观上达成共识。
Currency is an intermediary in people-to-people transactions, and languages and scripts are an intermediary in people-to-people exchanges. If 1.4 billion Chinese use 1.4 billion different languages, the result is similar to the Chinese’s loss of ability to speak, mixed use of multiple intermediaries will only reduce efficiency.
作为一种纯粹的中介，货币、语言、文字离开了共识就失去了生命力，而货币、语言、文字的共识是由政府和法律提供的，政府为货币、语言、文字提供强制流通场景。一个中国人愿意持有和接受人民币，因为他相信其他中国人也愿意，这一点由法律来保障，当支付宝、微信支付宣传“无现金城市”时中国央行果断叫停，就是如此。
As a purely intermediary, currency, language, and text lose their vitality when they leave the consensus, which is provided by the government and the law, and which provides a mandatory circulation scenario for money, language, and text. A Chinese man is willing to hold and accept the renminbi, because he believes that other Chinese are willing, which is guaranteed by the law when paying treasures and micro-credits & ldquao; the cashless city & rdquao; and the central bank of China stops at the moment.
没有强制使用场景的货币、语言、文字都是脆弱的，因为背后的共识是脆弱的。今天支持比特币交易的商家，明天可以随时宣布停止支持（2017年12月8日，steam宣布停止支持比特币支付），然而今天支持人民币支付的中国超市，明天也必须支持，除非中国政府修改法律、更换法币，政府为货币、语言、文字提供最后的强制流通担保。世界语难以发展，正是缺少强制使用场景，你不知道和谁一定可以使用世界语交流，然而你确认你可以和中国人使用普通话交流。
The currency, language, and script of the scene are fragile, because the consensus behind it is fragile. Businessmen who support the Bitcoin deal today can announce their cessation of support at any time tomorrow (on December 8, 2017, steam announced its cessation of support for Bitcoin payments), but Chinese supermarkets who support the renminbi pay today must also support it tomorrow unless the Chinese government amends the law and changes the French currency, and the government provides the last compulsory guarantee for the circulation of money, language, and text. World languages are difficult to develop, precisely because of the lack of compulsory use of the scene, and you do not know who must be able to communicate with them, yet you confirm that you can use Mandarin.
一种任何人都可以拒绝的货币，一种无法随时用于购物的货币，一种缺乏流动性的货币，真的是货币吗？
Is it really a currency that anyone can reject, a currency that cannot be used for shopping at any time, a currency that lacks liquidity?
三、比特币中心化导致的内在风险
III. Inherent risks resulting from the centralization of Bitcoin
很多比特币支持者认为比特币是去中心的，最初的比特币确实如此，但现在的比特币则很难说是否是去中心的。比特币近年来取得了很多进步和发展，然而这些进步和发展是有成本的，当成本是使比特币趋于中心化时，比特币是否还有存在的意义就成为了一个问题。
A lot of bitcoin supporters believe that bitcoin is going to the center, and that was the original bitcoin, but it is difficult to say whether bitcoin is going to the center. Bitcoin has made a lot of progress and development in recent years, but these advances and developments are costly, and when the cost is to centralize bitcoin, the question arises as to whether bitcoin still exists.
比特币最大的价值是去中心，当比特币变得中心化时，我们为什么不直接使用更中心化更成熟的法定货币呢？
The greatest value of Bitcoin is going to the centre. When Bitcoin becomes central, why don't we just use more centralized, more mature legal currency?
3.1 矿机的出现与算力中心化的风险
谈比特币必须谈挖矿，挖矿对比特币而言作用是什么？
When we talk about bitcoin, we have to talk about mining. What's the role of mining bitcoin?
挖矿有四个作用。1，担任时间戳服务器，证明某笔比特币交易在某特定时刻一定存在。2，运行工作量证明（POW）机制，生成新区块必须花费一段时间；修改一个历史区块则必须重新生成该区块之后的每一个区块，由于原始的区块链条同时在延长，而系统始终认为最长的区块链条是正确的，只要大多数算力诚实，则历史区块将不可更改。3，在去中心的比特币网络中发行新的比特币。4，降低51%攻击的风险，使比特币网络算力占优者保持诚实。
The mining works four ways. 1. Act as a time stamp server to prove that a particular bitcoin transaction must exist at a certain point in time. 2 Operational workload proof (POW) mechanism, which must take time to generate a new block; amending a historical block, which must regenerate each block after the block, as the original block chain is extended at the same time, and the system always considers the longest block chain to be correct, and the historical block will remain unaltered as long as most of the calculations are honest. 3 New bitcoins will be issued in the central Bitcoin network. 4, reducing the risk of 51 per cent attacks and keeping the Bitcoin network superiors honest.
中本聪特意指出，POW的本质是一CPU一票。当人们使用CPU挖矿时，POW机制在正常运转，任何人都可能挖到比特币，比特币的生产成本也很低，比特币网络的算力分布趋于去中心化。而当人们发现GPU挖矿效率远超CPU时，情况变得不一样了，一CPU依然一票，而一GPU十票。
When people use CPU to dig, the Pow mechanism works, anyone can dig into Bitcoin, the production costs of Bitcoin are low, and the computational distribution of the Bitcoin network tends to de-centralize. And when people find that GPU digs far more efficiently than CPU, the situation is different, with one CPU still voting and one GPU ten voting.
中本聪为了应对未来社会平均算力的增长，以移动平均目标的方法调整挖矿难度，你可以简单理解为网游里全服所有玩家共享BOSS难度，新手玩家和满级玩家面对的BOSS实力完全一样，当所有玩家的实力趋于相同时（一CPU一票），这不是问题，但一旦玩家水平差距悬殊（一CPU依然一票，而一GPU十票），新手玩家会发现自己没法玩了。使用GPU挖矿的矿工为了进一步提升挖矿效率，随后发明了专用矿机，在一CPU一票的前提下，一台ASIC矿机能有2000票。
In order to cope with the growth of society’s average arithmetic power in the future, and to adjust mining difficulties by moving the average target, it can be easily understood that all players in the net share the difficulties of OSS. Newcomers and full players face the exact same capabilities of OSS. When all players have the same strength (one CPU, one vote), that is not a problem, but once the player’s level is very different (one CPU is still one vote and one GPU, ten votes), the new player will find it impossible to play.
ASIC矿机入场挖矿，系统自动调整全服挖矿难度，二者叠加，带来了什么新问题？
What are the new problems posed by the amalgamation of ASIC mining aircraft, which automatically adjusts the difficulty of full-service mining?
1，比特币生产成本大幅上升，浪费能源。当人们只使用CPU挖矿时，POW机制正常运行，比特币生产成本低到趋于0。当矿工使用矿机挖矿，系统自动调整全服挖矿难度后，不使用矿机的人发现自己根本挖不到矿，而使用矿机的矿工联合起来组成矿池，在算力上产生军备竞赛的局面。矿机挖矿耗费大量能源，然而为比特币网络带来了什么？比特币的产量是由系统预先规定的，全世界使用一台比特币矿机挖矿或者使用一万台矿机挖矿，在耗费的能源上差距一万倍，然而最终比特币产量上完全一样。比特币的生产成本可以低到趋于0，然而矿工们联合起来大幅提高了挖矿难度和挖矿成本。
When the CPU is used only for mining, the Pow mechanism works well, and bitcoin production costs are low to zero. When miners dig with a miner and the system automatically adjusts to the difficulty of whole mining, those who do not use a mine find themselves unable to dig at all, while miners who use a mine machine combine to form a pool and create an arms race in arithmetic. Miners dig with a large amount of energy, but what is it for Bitcoin? Bitcoin’s output is system-predicted, using a Bitcoin miner worldwide or 10,000 mine machines, is 10,000 times more energy-consuming than it is, but ultimately it is exactly the same. Bitcoin production costs can be reduced to zero, but miners combine to significantly increase the difficulty and cost of digging.
2，使用外挂者成为了游戏管理员。网游里使用外挂的人玩的很开心，而且使不使用外挂的人游戏体验很差，矿机就是比特币挖矿游戏的物理外挂。更神奇的是，中本聪设计一CPU一票来解决投票时谁是多数的问题，矿工使用矿机挖矿盈利，还利用比特币投票机制获得了比特币游戏的大部分投票权，使用外挂的矿工摇身一变成为了某种意义上的挖矿游戏管理员。
Two, using the outsider as a game manager. On the net, it's fun to use the outsider, and it's bad for people who don't use the outside, and the mine is the physical exterior of the bitcoin mining game. Even more amazing, Nakamoto designed a vote to solve the question of who was the majority at the time of the vote, the miners used the miner to dig for profit, and also used the Bitcoin voting mechanism to get most of the votes in the bitcoin game, using the outsider to shake himself into a mining game manager for some sense.
3，算力中心化降低了政府封杀比特币的难度。部分比特币支持者指出，矿机的使用大幅提升了比特币全网算力，提升了比特币的安全性，也是比特币相比其他山寨币的优势。真的吗？在算力去中心的前提下，全网算力增长可以提升安全性，但是当算力中心化后，一点都不安全。目前比特币网络已经形成了少数矿池控制全网大部分算力的格局，头部矿池的所在地和控制人已经世人皆知，矿池巨大的耗电量更让其无处遁形，如果各国政府联合起来查封矿池，利用矿池实施51%攻击或拒绝服务攻击，成功率如何？
According to some Bitcoin supporters, the use of mine machines has greatly enhanced the full net capacity of bitcoin, enhancing its security and its advantage over other mountain coins. Really? With the centralization of the algorithm, full-net growth can improve security, but when the algorithm is centralized, it is not safe at all. The Bitcoin network has developed a pattern of a small number of pits that control most of the net's computing power, the location of the head ponds and the controllers are known to the world that the huge power consumption of the pits is more disfigured than the rest. What is the success rate if governments come together to seize the pits and use them to carry out 51% attacks or refuse service attacks?
政府为什么要联合封杀比特币呢？因为比特币等加密货币对于一切违法犯罪的支付行为非常有价值，而对于普通人几乎毫无价值，而如果支持比特币强制流通等于自愿放弃独立的财政政策与货币政策，而封杀比特币还可以对其他加密货币、山寨币形成杀鸡儆猴的效果。
Why should the government jointly block bitcoin? Because encrypted currency such as bitcoin is of great value to all illegal payments and hardly to ordinary people, and it can also serve as an example for other encoded currency, mountain coins, if supporting the mandatory circulation of bitcoin is tantamount to a voluntary abandonment of independent fiscal and monetary policies.
一旦政府明白了比特币根本无法监管，无法从比特币中获利，而比特币泛滥会大幅降低犯罪成本、创新犯罪形式，封杀比特币就是很自然的选择了。
Once the Government realized that bitcoin was simply unsupervised and could not profit from bitcoin, the spread of bitcoin would significantly reduce the cost of crime and create innovative forms of crime, and it would be natural to block bitcoin.
改良型的POS机制能解决POW机制的问题吗？不可能，POS只会带来更严重的中心化问题，这将导致比特币毫无价值。
Can an improved POS mechanism solve the problem of the POW mechanism? No, the POS will only lead to a more central problem, which will render bitcoin worthless.
3.2数字货币交易所的出现与交易中心化的风险
我们首先回忆一下比特币，比特币是一种点对点的数字货币，在线交易的双方可以在没有任何中介的情况下直接完成支付交易。
We begin by recalling Bitcoin, a digital currency of point-to-point, where parties to online transactions can directly complete payment transactions without any intermediary.
数字货币交易所最初出现时，提供的基础功能是提供交易信息、交易撮合、担保。中本聪在比特币白皮书中指出，比特币通过无法撤销支付来保护卖家，同时支持设立第三方担保机制保护买家。
When the digital currency exchange first emerged, it provided the basic function of providing transaction information, transaction combinations, and guarantees. In its White Paper on Bitcoin, China’s Central Bank stated that Bitcoin protected sellers by failing to avoid payment, while supporting the creation of a third-party guarantee mechanism to protect buyers.
中心化的数字货币交易所为去中心的比特币带来了什么？
What did the centralized digital money exchange bring to go to the center of Bitcoin?
第一个问题，价格操纵。数字货币交易所会提供目前最新的比特币报价，即比特币兑换其他法定货币、其他数字货币的价格。不管你是否通过数字货币交易所和其他人进行交易，你都可以参考它们的报价，但是交易所提供的报价可靠吗？
The digital currency exchange will provide the latest available bitcoin price, i.e., the price of bitcoin for other legal and other digital currencies. Whether or not you trade through the digital currency exchange or through others, you can refer to their offer, but is the price offered by the transaction reliable?
完全不可靠，任何人都可以开设数字货币交易所，而目前各国对待数字货币交易所管理措施各不相同，交易者通常认为通过规模大、交易量高的交易所交易更安全，然而这个观点根本不正确，因为在去中心、无监管的比特币网络里，交易所规模和自身安全性事实上没有任何关联，现实世界中规模大的企业会吸引政府较多注意力，所以通常规模越大的企业越正规，然而比特币世界里并没有政府这种管理机构。MtGox交易所监守自盗就是典型案例。
It is totally unreliable that anyone can open a digital currency exchange, which is currently managed differently from one country to another. Dealers tend to believe that it is safer to trade through a large and high-volume exchange, but this is not true, because in a central, unregulated network of bitcoin, the size of the exchange and its own security are virtually unrelated, and large firms in the real world will attract more attention from the government, so the larger the businesses are usually more formal, but there is no government administration in the Bitcoin world.
去中心的比特币网络里每一笔交易信息是完全公开的，然而中心化交易所的账本是完全私密的，究竟多少人以怎样的美元价格完成了比特币交易，这件事情只有加密货币交易所自己清楚，交易者完全不清楚。交易者和交易所之间存在巨大的信息不对称，信息不对称加上无监管，最后导向必然的价格操纵。MtGox交易所2011年8月到2013年11月之间的1800万条交易信息在2014年被泄漏，Neil Gandal等人分析交易数据，认为交易所通过两个机器人虚构交易推动比特币价格在两个月内从150美元上涨至1000美元。由于比特币自身价格频繁地剧烈波动，即使交易所操纵比特币价格，比特币参与者也很难发现。
Every transaction information in the Bitcoin network going to the center is completely public, yet the centralized exchange's books are completely private, and the exact number of people who have completed the bitcoin transaction at what dollar price is only known to the crypto-currency exchange itself, and the traders are not entirely clear. There is a huge information asymmetry between traders and exchanges, which, coupled with a lack of regulation, eventually leads to the inevitable price manipulation. 18 million transaction information on the MtGox exchange between August 2011 and November 2013 were leaked in 2014, and Neil Gandal and others analysed the transaction data, arguing that the exchange facilitated an increase in the price of bitcoins from $150 to $1,000 in two months through two robotic transactions.
第二个问题，开赌场稳赚不赔。当ICO出现后，中心化的加密货币交易所和ICO项目发起方合作，ICO项目发起方向交易所支付上市费，使自己项目的代币在交易所上市交易获得流动性溢价，拉高币值后套现离场；交易所收上市费、交易手续费，稳赚不赔；韭菜玩家花钱买空气，感觉财务自由近在眼前。允许ICO代币流通的交易所相当于担任了现实世界中的股票发行审核机构和证券交易所，区别是加密货币交易所只认钱、没有任何监管、没有任何风险控制措施，购买交易所的ICO代币本质上是买卖一个点子，买卖一个想法，就和买卖空气一样，所以很多ICO项目代币也被称为空气币。
When the ICO appeared, the centralized, encrypted currency exchange and the ICO project sponsors worked together, and the ICO initiated a direct exchange to pay a market fee to obtain a liquidity premium on their own transactions on the exchange, to raise the value of the money and then get out of the market; the exchange collected market fees, transaction fees, to make a steady profit; and the pickle player paid for air and felt financially free. The exchange that allowed the ICO to circulate was the same as the stock issuer and stock exchange in the real world, the distinction being that the cryptic currency exchange only recognized money, did not have any supervision, did not have any risk control measures. The ICO currency of the purchase exchange was essentially a buying and selling point, and the buying and selling of an idea, just like the buying and selling of air, so many ICO tokens were also referred to as air currency.
ICO在中国已经被央行等七部委2017年9月4号叫停，有力地保护了中国投资者的合法权益。
In China, ICO has been shut down by seven ministries, including the Central Bank, on 4 September 2017, which provides a strong protection for the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese investors.
由于中心化交易所存在的巨大问题，很多比特币支持者致力于开发去中心的加密货币交易所，然而他们的努力一定会失败。因为中心化的交易所是盈利企业，有更大动力、更大能力去提升交易效率，市场经济下的社会发展基于个体利己思想，而不是理想主义者的无私奉献。比特币持有者一定会选择交易效率更高的中心化交易所，即使会承担巨大的成本。
Given the enormous problems of the centralized exchange, many bitcoin supporters are committed to developing the encrypted currency exchange to go to the centre, but their efforts are bound to fail. Because the centralized exchange is a profit-making business, with greater motivation and capacity to improve the efficiency of the transaction, social development in a market economy is based on self-interest rather than on the selfless dedication of idealists.
四、为什么人类讨厌投机者，比特币参与主体风险
分析一个人的品行如何，可以观察这个人的朋友们品行如何；分析一个项目是否可靠，可以观察这个项目的参与者都是哪些人。当你观察比特币的参与主体后，你就可以明白为什么比特币存在如此多的问题和风险，币值依然可以一直涨。
When you look at the subject of Bitcoin, you can see why bitcoin has so many problems and risks, and the value can still rise.
比特币由极少数理想主义者、无政府主义者、技术极客，绝大多数投机者构成。
Bitcoin is made up of a very small number of idealists, anarchists, technocrats and the vast majority of speculators.
实际人数极少的理想主义者、技术极客相当于比特币游戏里的核心玩家（CU），他们占据了比特币世界里大部分话语权，比特币系统的新突破、新功能、更新、改进由他们提供，他们的行为在我看来类似于制造永动机，追求不存在的完美产品。比特币是一种缺点和优点都非常明显的产品，中本聪牺牲交易效率来确保比特币的去中心、总量上限。随着比特币吸引了越来越多的参与者，参与者对于比特币交易效率低下越来越不满，然而一切改善比特币交易效率的行为，都必然导致比特币趋于中心化或者突破总量上限，万物皆有成本。
A very small number of idealists, technocrats, are equivalent to the core player (CU) in the Bitcoin game, who hold most of the voice in the Bitcoin world, and whose new breakthroughs, new functions, updates, improvements are provided by them, which I see as tantamount to creating eternal motives and pursuing non-existent perfect products. Bitcoins are a product whose disadvantages and virtues are obvious, and their efficiency is sacrificed to ensure their centre, volume ceiling. As Bitcoins attracts more and more participants, the participants are increasingly dissatisfied with the efficiency of the Bitcoin deal, but all actions to improve the efficiency of the Bitcoin deal necessarily lead to a centralization of the Bitcoins or to a breakthrough in the total cap, with costs for everything.
实际人数极多的投机者更有分析必要，是他们有力地推动了比特币的币值上涨。地球上几乎必然存在投机者，而投机者往往需要寻找一个合适的投机对象。当一群投机者聚到一起时，极少数投机者坐庄设局利用不对称信息优势，往往能骗走大部分普通投机者的钱。普通投机者即使明知项目有问题，依然愿意参与其中，因为他们善于自我催眠（钱宝网创始人向警方投案自首，而微博上钱宝网投资人坚信发布新闻的警方认证帐号被盗号了），而且相信自己能在项目崩盘前套现离场。
When a group of speculators gathers together, a handful of speculators take advantage of asymmetrical information, often swindling the money of most ordinary speculators. Even if they know the project is problematic, ordinary speculators are willing to participate because they are good at hypnotizing themselves (the founder of the money-bond network turned himself in to the police, and the micro-blogging investor is convinced that the police certified the account number to publish the news has been stolen) and that he can get out before the project collapses.
普通投机者相信风险越大、收益越大，可惜的是这一点对于投机骗局根本不适用。投机骗局的特点是风险收益不对等，坐庄设局的极少数投机者基本稳赚不赔，而参与投机骗局的大部分普通投机者被称为韭菜，他们中的极少数幸运儿能赚到钱，然而大部分人将被套牢，因为坐庄设局者赚的就是他们的钱。想在投机骗局中赚到钱，关键在于需要获得内幕消息，而和参与者个人能力、投资水平毫无关系。
Common speculators believe that the greater the risks and the greater the returns, unfortunately this does not apply at all to speculative scams. Speculation scams are characterized by unequal risk earnings, with a very small number of speculators in the business making almost a steady profit, while most ordinary speculators involved in speculators are known as pickles, and a very few of them are lucky enough to make money, but most of them will be locked up because they earn their money. The key to earning money in the speculators is to get inside information, which has nothing to do with the participants’ personal abilities and level of investment.
投资与投机的区别是，投资者关注项目的真实价值，需要进行基本面分析，他们通过低风险项目获得低回报，国家允许正常的股票投资等行为，是因为投资可以为可靠的项目筹集资金，为社会提高资金利用效率，是一种可持续的行为。
The difference between investment and speculation is that investors are concerned about the true value of the project and require a fundamental analysis, that they receive low returns through low-risk projects, that the State allows normal equity investments, that is, because investment can raise funds for reliable projects, and that efficient use of funds for society is a sustainable act.
而投机者完全不关心项目是否具有真实价值或者纯是一个骗局，他们只关心项目热度和短期内是否能暴涨，坚信自己只要能在项目崩盘前套现就能暴富。投机者们聚到一起炒作投机标的，只是制造了虚假繁荣和账面财富，而且由于投机骗局并不产生真实价值，具有不可持续性，泡沫破灭后会为社会带来巨大的不确定波动。
Speculators, on the other hand, do not care about the real value of the project or whether it is simply a fraud, but only about the heat of the project and whether it surges in the short term, convinced that they can be rich as long as they can get it before the project collapses. The speculators come together to make speculations that create false prosperity and book wealth, and because the speculatory scheme does not produce real value and is unsustainable, the bubble will cause great uncertainty in society.
有部分比特币支持者将ICO类比股票，其实二者截然不同。虽然ICO项目代币和股票都是买卖未来预期，但ICO代币买卖的是一个想法、点子的未来预期，股票买卖的是一个企业的未来预期。参与者可以分析一家企业的基本面、公开信息，但完全无法分析一个点子、想法的基本面、公开信息。而且股票买卖有政府机构监管，通过必要的游戏规则保证投资人利益；ICO本质是脱离监管的，除了投机炒作没有任何保护投资人的游戏规则。
Some of the Bitcoins’ supporters compare ICOs to stocks, which are quite different. Although ICO projects are future expectations for both tokens and shares, ICO deals with an idea, ideas for the future, and shares for the future of an enterprise.
五、比特币是否稀有、价格、未来归宿
5.1比特币是否稀有
5.1 bitcoin is rare
比特币是否稀有取决于从哪个角度看问题。
Whether bitcoin is rare depends on the point of view.
基于比特币数量上限2100万枚，且假设越来越多的人愿意持有比特币来看，比特币将越来越稀有。
Bitcoin will become increasingly rare on the basis of a cap of 21 million bitcoins and the assumption that more and more people are willing to hold bitcoins.
但换个角度看问题，一枚比特币等于一亿聪，聪是目前比特币最小交易单位，且未来有需要时可以更新比特币程序来继续切割比特币，那么比特币在实际应用中并不稀有，即使一枚比特币也足够全人类使用。即使比特币未来成为了人类社会的主流货币，到时候你再兑换比特币也完全不迟，机会成本是你可能错过了一个暴富机会，优点是你不需要承担比特币暴死带来的财产损失。
But in a different way, a bitcoin equals 100 million listeners, a bitcoin is currently the smallest trading unit in Bitcoin, and a bitcoin procedure can be updated to continue to cut bitcoin when needed in the future, so bitcoin is not rare in its practical application, even if a bitcoin is enough for all of humanity. Even if Bitcoin becomes the dominant currency in human society in the future, then you will not be late for re-changing bitcoin, and the opportunity cost is that you may miss a huge opportunity, and the advantage is that you will not have to bear the loss of property resulting from Bitcoin’s sudden death.
继续换个角度看问题，由于比特币是开源项目，模仿比特币的山寨币和竞争币已经超过一千种（coinmarketcap网站数据，统计了1519种数字货币），即使政府不封杀比特币，比特币和山寨币的竞争究竟鹿死谁手也是个未知数。比特币相比竞争币，最大优势是接受比特币的人最多，但这个优势是否能一直保持犹未可知，如果比特币用户规模缩小，则比特币的稀缺性将大打折扣。
The question continues to be viewed differently, since bitcoin is an open-source project, with over a thousand coins imitating bitcoin and competitorial coins (coinmarketcap data, counting 1519 digital currencies), even if the government does not block bitcoins, there is no doubt that bitcoins and mountaincoins are the ones who die. Bitcoins have the greatest advantage than the ones who accept bitcoins, but it is still unknown whether this advantage can be maintained, and if bitcoins are reduced in size, the scarcity of bitcoins will be greatly reduced.
5.2比特币价格、未来归宿
分析比特币价格，长期价格和短期价格需要分开讨论。
The analysis of bitcoin prices, long-term and short-term prices, needs to be discussed separately.
比特币短期价格由比特币供给与需求决定。比特币短期价格类似股票的短期价格，二者波动呈现出非常类似随机漫步（random walk）的特点，即除非参与者获得不对称信息优势（内幕消息），否则参与者完全无法预测明天的比特币价格、明天某支股票的价格。
Bitcoin’s short-term price is determined by bitcoin supply and demand. Bitcoin’s short-term price is similar to the short-term price of a stock, and the two fluctuations are very similar to a random walk (random walk) – that is, unless participants gain asymmetric information advantages (intelcasts), the participants are simply unable to predict tomorrow’s bitcoin price, the price of a stock tomorrow.
这里显示出了目前比特币交易的一个显著缺陷，加密货币交易所利用自身交易中心的地位，获得了不对称信息优势，有条件、有能力、有需求操纵比特币价格。国家法律在传统股票交易中严格禁止内幕交易，因为这会严重损害投资人利益，继而提高优质公司融资成本；而没有任何机构禁止加密货币的内幕交易，长期来看这会导致垃圾加密货币（空气币）越来越多，加密货币投机特点将越来越强。
This points to a significant flaw in the current bitcoin transactions, where an encrypted currency exchange takes advantage of its position as a centre of dealings and acquires asymmetrical information, with conditions, capacity, and demand to manipulate bitcoin prices. National laws strictly prohibit insider transactions in traditional stock exchanges, as this would seriously damage investors’ interests and, in turn, raise the cost of high-quality corporate financing; and no agency would prohibit insider transactions of encrypted currency, which in the long run would lead to an increase in the number of scavenging currency (air currency) and the increasing characteristics of speculatory currency speculation.
比特币长期价格由比特币的真实价值决定。
The long-term price of Bitcoin is determined by the true value of Bitcoin.
基于上文分析，黑产对于比特币有刚需导致比特币面临天然的强监管风险，而比特币无法被监管且不可能成为一种被广泛使用的货币，所以政府机构封杀比特币的可能性将越来越大；比特币自身算力中心化、交易中心化的趋势将使比特币失去内在价值及存在意义；比特币参与者中投机者过多将导致比特币爆火、暴死。一切试图改良比特币的行为必然带来其趋于中心化、突破总量上限的新问题，而比特币一旦中心化，就变得毫无价值，因为人们完全可以选择更加中心化、更加成熟的法定货币。
On the basis of the above analysis, the possibility of blockage of bitcoins by government agencies is increasing because of the natural and strong regulatory risk to bitcoins that they face as a result of their need, and because bitcoins cannot be regulated and are unlikely to become a widely used currency; the tendency to centralize bitcoins themselves and to centralize transactions will deprive bitcoins of intrinsic value and relevance; and the excessive number of speculators among bitcoins will cause bitcoins to explode and die. Any attempt to improve bitcoins will inevitably bring with them new problems of centralization, breaking the cap, and bitcoins, once centralized, will become worthless, as people can well choose more central and mature statutory currencies.
从长期来看，任何以超过零的价格购入比特币都是无利可图的行为，这就是比特币的长期价格，也是比特币的未来归宿。（本文首发钛媒体）
In the long run, any purchase of bitcoin at more than zero is unprofitable, and that is the long-term price of bitcoin and the future fate of bitcoin.
【钛媒体作者介绍：故国今夕】
"Introduction by titanium media: Today's country."
注册有任何问题请添加 微信：MVIP619 拉你进入群
打开微信扫一扫
添加客服
进入交流群
1.本站遵循行业规范，任何转载的稿件都会明确标注作者和来源；2.本站的原创文章，请转载时务必注明文章作者和来源，不尊重原创的行为我们将追究责任；3.作者投稿可能会经我们编辑修改或补充。
