比特币5秒的新高后紧接着大幅回调，背后原因何在？

「比特币不再亏欠任何人」，只持续了不到 5 秒？

"Bitcoin doesn't owe anyone any more." It lasts less than five seconds?

见证历史和怀念历史，都在同一晚：2024 年 3 月 5 日 23:00，比特币时隔 3 年重新站上 69000 USDT（OKX 现货数据，下同），最高触及 69080 USDT，超越 2021 年 11 月 10 日的 69040.1 USDT，创历史新高。

Witnessing history and remembering history on the same night: 5 March 2024, 2300, 3 years apart from the bitcoin, 69,000 USDT (OKX spot data, same), peaked at 69080 USDT, surpassing the 69040.1 USDT of 10 November 2021, which is now at an all-time high.

然而不同于 2020 年突破 2 万美元关口后的一马平川，此番比特币在创新高后并未一鼓作气，反而转向急跌——闪跌来势猛、跌幅大，今日凌晨 3:55 最低触及 59000 USDT，5 小时跌逾 14.5%，目前反弹至 63600 USDT 左右。

However, unlike Ma Pingchuan , which broke out of the US$ 20,000 threshold in 2020, after being inventive, the bitcoin has turned to a sharp drop — sharp and steep — at 3:55 a.m. this morning, reaching a minimum of 59,000 USDT, five hours more than 14.5 per cent , and now rebounds to about 63600 USDT.

与此同时，以太坊从最高 3821 USDT 凌晨最低跌至 3179 USDT，跌逾更是高达 16.8%。山寨币市场也是一片血流成河，除 STRK、APT 等 L2/ 新公链币种坚挺之外，其余回调均在 10% 以上，

At the same time, Etheria dropped from its highest level of 3821 USDT to 3179 USDT in the morning, falling by more than 16.8%. The market is also a river of blood, except for the STRK, APT, and others, where L2 and the new commons are strong, the rest are more than 10%.

Coinglass 数据显示，过去 12 小时全网爆仓逾 9 亿美元，其中多单爆仓 7.53 亿美元，，占比超 83%，完全是一场针对多军的单向屠戮，给「急热上头」的市场被动完成了一波杠杆大清理。

Coinglass data show that in the past 12 hours, the full-network explosion has exceeded $900 million, of which $753 million, or more than 83 per cent, was a single-way slaughter of the plethora of troops, resulting in a wave of leverage clean-up of the market for the "hot-up" .

「睡前看房看车，醒来看楼看海」，如果事后细数此次新高后旋即闪跌的可能原因，会发现无论是宏观上的美股影响外溢，还是自身 ETF 巨额成交、资金费率畸高等内部因素，都可能合力催生了此次大幅回调。

"Look at the car before you go to sleep, wake up and look at the sea." If you look at the possible causes of this new high and then crash, you will find that both the impact of the United States at the macro level and the large transaction of the ETF itself, and the internal factors of the abnormally high financial rates, may have combined to trigger this massive return.

如今风险资产属性渐重的比特币，和美股之间的关联走势愈发紧密。

The link between the increasingly important bitcoin of risk assets and the United States shares is now growing.

而周二隔夜的美股市场上，三大美股股指齐跌，尤其是蓝筹科技股的暴跌导致纳指盘中一度跌超 2%，刷新 2 月 21 日以来收盘新低，且在昨夜 23:00 比特币创新高之际，纳指已开盘跌逾 1%，彼时风险意味就开始显现。

And on Tuesday night in the US stock market, three major shares fell, especially the blue share in technology, which led to a drop of 2% in the nails, a new closing down since February 21, and a rise of 23% in bitcoin innovation last night, when the finger opened and fell by more than 1%, and the risk began to appear.

更为值得关注的长线信号是，被视为美股「中流砥柱」、连日跑赢大盘的芯片股总体涨势整体熄火，无疑会使市场担忧 AI 热潮能否继续扮演「美股强心剂」，这在一定程度上推高了市场对美股后续回调的预期，影响不少获利资金选择规避风险，进行平仓或降杠杆操作。

The more significant long-line signal is that the overall blackout of the chip stock, which is considered to be the "middle-stream pillar" of the United States, and the win-win win-win by day, will undoubtedly raise market concerns as to whether AI’s hot tide can continue to act as a “merit-strength agent”, which to some extent increases market expectations of subsequent returns to the United States stock, affecting many profitable capital options to avoid risk, levelling or deleveraging operations.

值得注意的是，彭博 ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 表示，昨日 10 支比特币现货 ETF 总交易量达 100 亿美元，约为近期日均交易量的 5 倍，创历史新高。

It is noteworthy that Eric Balchunas, an ETF analyst in Bloomberg, said that yesterday

大幅高于均值的日交易量也代表了高换手率，而这种波动性和交易量齐头并进的局面，也从一定程度表明在市场剧烈波动之下，部分用户对未来走势的不确定性和避险情绪在加剧，一些早期筹码选择提前获利了结。

The volume of day-to-day transactions, which are significantly above average, also represents a high exchange rate, a situation in which volatility and volume of transactions go hand-in-hand and to some extent indicates that, in the face of high market volatility, uncertainty and avoidance of future trends among some of the users of `strang' are increasing and some of the early chips options are pre-spent.

情绪上头之下，加密市场自身的预警声也已拉响了将近一周。

Emotionally, the encryption market's own early warning sound has been ringing for almost a week.

此前 2 月 27 日，比特币「人民币新高」之际，Foresight News 市场观察文章中就提到，加密市场最直接的风险信号开始累积——BTC 和 ETH 的永续合约资金费率从 2 月 27 日 8:00 开始，就一度跃升至约 80% 的极高水平——多头头寸持续支出相当于年化 80% 的巨额资金费（参见《比特币「人民币新高」在即，加密市场步入躺赚时刻？》）。

Earlier, on February 27, on the occasion of Bitcoin's “new high of the renminbi”, the Foresight News Market Observations noted that the most direct risk signals in the encryption market had begun to accumulate — — and that continued spending in multiple positions amounted to 80% of the annual financial cost (see Bitcoin's “new high of the renminbi” in this sense, the encrypt market?

但市场狂热超出想象，此后一周 BTC 和 ETH 的永续合约资金费率居高不下，基本一直维持在 50%-70% 的高位区间。

But the market was more fanatical than ever, and BTC and ETH's long-term contract funding rates remained high for the following week, largely at 50-70 per cent of the high zone.

在 2 月 5 日暴跌开始当天，BTC、ETH 的费率更是触及近 100% 的畸高水平，这意味着多头在大量补贴空头，不断支付大额做多成本并失血。

At the start of the fall on 5 February, BTC and ETH rates reached close to 100% of the abnormally high levels, which meant that many of them were in large subsidy voids, were constantly paying large sums of money and losing blood.

因此即便再坚定看涨的多头也不是时间的对手，一旦战线拉长随时可能会迫于压力迅速平仓，而一旦有多头率先平仓跑路，就会引发多米诺骨牌的踩踏，发生杠杆大清算。

So even more determinedly looking at multiple headlines is not an opponent of time, and once the front line is drawn up under pressure at any given time, it can be quickly leveled down, and once many headlines lead the way, the dominoes can be stomped on, leading to a big leverage clean-up.

此外，Bitcoin News 在暴跌后发推称，某个远古巨鲸地址在 2010 年 8 月 -10 月挖出的大量比特币似乎在创新高之后被抛售，「导致了周二的价格调整」。

In addition, Bitcoin News postulates that a huge amount of bitcoins dug up by an ancient giant whale in August-10 2010 appeared to have been sold after innovation, "resulting in a price adjustment on Tuesday."

不过据 CryptoQuant 统计数据显示，沉睡 10 年以上的比特币在创新高之前一直在移动，而且仅数千万美元的抛售力度似乎也不足以让市场暴跌 15% 以上。

However, according to CryptoQuant statistics, bitcoins that have been sleeping for more than 10 years have been moving until the innovation is high, and the tens of millions of dollars in sales do not seem to be enough to plunge the market by more than 15 per cent.

「3 年前，我套在了 69000 USDT，3 年后，还没来得及解套的我，再度套在了 69000 USDT」。

"three years ago, I was in 69,000 USDT, three years later, and I wasn't able to solve it, and again I was in 69,000 USDT."

相信大家现在现在最大的疑惑，便是此次急跌究竟是行情见顶的征兆，还是「牛市多暴跌」的常规回调？

Do you believe that the biggest doubt you have now is whether this crash is a sign of the worst, or whether it is a general return to the "Cow City Falls"?

我们仍可全面检视一下当下消息面、资金面的各项因素，来帮助我们获得较为客观的后市判断。

We can still take a full look at the current information and financial factors to help us obtain a more objective post-municipal judgement.

首要因素依旧老生常谈，对比特币而言，目前最大的增量资金流入无疑就是现货 ETF。

The primary factor remains the same, and, in the case of Bitcoin, the current largest incremental inflow is undoubtedly the spot ETF.

截至 3 月 4 日，比特币现货 ETF 总资产净值为 524.5 亿美元，ETF 净资产比率（市值较比特币总市值占比）达 3.96%，历史累计净流入已达 79.1 亿美元。

As at 4 March, bitcoin current ETF net assets amounted to $52.45 billion, the ETF net assets ratio (market value compared to the total market value of Bitcoin) amounted to 3.96 per cent, and the accumulated historical net inflows amounted to $7.91 billion.

此外 MicroStrategy 昨日再度官宣，拟以非公开发行的方式发行本金总额为 6 亿美元的 2030 年到期的可转换优先票据，净收益计划用于购买额外的比特币和一般企业用途。

In addition, MicroStrategy announced again yesterday that it intended to issue in a non-public manner convertible priority instruments with a total principal value of $600 million due in 2030, with a net proceeds plan being used to purchase additional bitcoins and general business purposes.

上文提到此前一周 BTC 和 ETH 的永续合约资金费率都处于畸高，而昨夜今晨的急跌则相当于一次及时降温，让市场从 FOMO 的上头情绪中回归理性。

The previous week, as mentioned above, BTC and ETH's funding rates for permanent contracts were abnormally high, while yesterday morning's sharp fall amounted to a timely cooling, which allowed the market to return to rationality from the top emotions of FOMO.

至少数据维度，目前 BTC 的资金费率已经大幅降至年化 24.85%（相对一个月前的 10% 仍略高），绝大部分山寨币的交易平台资金费率也回落至 0.01% 的正常水平，市场的合约杠杆风险得到释放。

At least the dimensions of the data, the current BTC funding rate has been significantly reduced to 24.85 per cent (which is still slightly higher than 10 per cent a month ago) and most of the price of the trading platform has fallen to 0.01 per cent, releasing the market's contractual leverage risk.

昨日的《比特币新高在即，从这 10 张图中带你找寻「财富密码」》一文中也提到，「比特币引领行情，而山寨币 Summer 稍后才会到来，并且预计会有大回调——上一个牛市周期中出现过 6 次幅度超过 30% 的回调行情」。

Yesterday, in the new height of bitcoin, from which you were asked to find the "fortune code"

历史不会简单重复，但总是压着相同的韵脚，此次闪跌虽然来势凶猛，但也算提前释放了一定的风险，对于后续行情，保持期待。

History will not be simple to repeat, but it will always have the same hymn, and this crash, despite its ferocity, would have released certain risks ahead of schedule and kept looking forward to the follow-up.

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