期货周报｜大宗商品震荡偏弱，美联储第五次加息靴子落地，3只ETF期权合约登陆沪深交易所
南方财经全媒体记者?翁榕涛?实习生?孙永乐?广州报道
"Strong" Southern Financial Media Reporter? "Announcer"? Sun Young Lok? Guangzhou.
本周，美联储今年以来第五次加息靴子落地，符合市场预期，但“鹰”派立场信号尚未扭转，大宗需求预计进一步收缩。同时，随着利率快速走高，美国经济衰退风险将上升，将加速引发市场对经济衰退的担忧，对金融市场和商品价格形成冲击。
This week, the Federal Reserve, for the fifth time since the beginning of the year, has landed in line with market expectations, but “hawk” positions have not been reversed, and demand is expected to contract further. Meanwhile, as interest rates rise rapidly, the risk of a recession in the US will increase, accelerating market fears of a recession and impact on financial markets and commodity prices.
周内（9月19日-9月23日）国内大宗商品震荡偏弱，各板块表现有所分化。其中，黑色系板块普遍上涨，化工能源和农产品板块价格走低。
During the week (19 September-23 September) major commodity shocks in the country were weak, and the plates were divided. Among these, the black plates were generally rising and the prices of chemical energy and agricultural products were lower.
就国内期货市场具体来看，能源化工板块，原油周内下跌1.87%、燃油上涨0.04%、LPG下跌4.76%；黑色系板块，铁矿石上涨0.56%、焦煤上涨3.35%、焦炭上涨3.93%；有色金属板块，沪铜上涨0.37%、沪镍上涨3.06%、沪铝下跌0.56%；农产品板块，棕榈油下跌0.31%、豆油下跌0.50%、生猪下跌4.66%。
In the case of the domestic futures market in particular, the energy-chemicals sector saw a decline of 1.87 per cent in crude oil per week, an increase of 0.04 per cent in fuel and a decline of 4.76 per cent in LPG; the black sector, a 0.56 per cent increase in iron ore, a 3.35 per cent increase in coal and a 3.93 per cent increase in coke; the non-ferrous metal sector, a 0.37 per cent increase in bronze, a 3.06 per cent increase in nickel and a 0.56 per cent decline in aluminium; and the agricultural sector, a 0.31 per cent decline in palm oil, a 0.5 per cent decline in soybean oil and a 4.66 per cent decline in pig born.
交易行情热点：
热点一：美联储加息过后，关注大豆收获期
Hotspot 1: After the Fed's interest increase, focus on the soybean harvest
6月以来，大豆高位震荡下行，打破了俄乌冲突之后的僵局，美国农业部9月大豆报告对豆价再次形成短暂利多，在报告发布后美豆价格快速冲高，随后几天，大豆价格维持震荡，预期豆价偏空格局没有太大变化。
Since June, soybean prices have stunned down, breaking the post-Soy conflict impasse, with the United States Department of Agriculture reporting a brief Lido on soybean prices again in September and a rapid surge in soybean prices since the report was released, and soybean prices have remained shaky in the following days, with little change expected in the pattern of soybean price bias.
国内天气南旱北涝对东北大豆的产量是一个利好，但对国际豆价影响最大的美豆产量却不乐观，夏季高温干旱让美豆产区干旱面积不断增加，美豆优良率从70%一路下调至58%。
In the north-east, the harvest of soybeans is good for the country's dry weather, but it is not optimistic about the production of soybeans, which has the greatest impact on international soybean prices, as high-temperature droughts during the summer have increased the dry area of the soybean-producing areas, with a drop from 70 per cent to 58 per cent.
在国内消费普遍偏谨慎的情况下，终端消费没有太大的起色，国内大豆市场的消费前景同样难言乐观。预计国内9月进口大豆量减少，美豆收获季节临近，供应端的略紧的现状将大大缓解。
At a time when domestic consumption is generally cautious, end-uses do not turn out to be much better, as is consumption prospects in the domestic soybean market. It is expected that domestic imports of soybeans will decline in September, that the harvest season will approach, and that a slightly tight supply end will be significantly reduced.
美联储已经连续三次加息75个基点，油市和铜市正在逐步反应加息造成的负面效应，而农产品的反应相对滞后，预计在北半球秋收后将会显现。
The Fed has already increased interest rates by 75 basis points three times in a row, the oil and copper cities are gradually reacting to the negative effects of interest increases, while the response to agricultural products is relatively lagging and is expected to become apparent in the northern hemisphere after the fall harvest.
国际衍生品智库分析师认为，美豆震荡等待首周收割数据公布。经历8-9月报告过高和过低的单产预估后，市场重新评估美豆产量前景，等待收获进度数据和加息结果，短期美豆涨跌两难，暂时观望。
According to international derivative thinkers, bean concussions await first week’s harvest data. After over- and under-reporting of single production forecasts in August-September, the market reassesss its production prospects, awaiting harvest progress data and interest hikes, and short-term bean booms and falls for the time being.
热点二：欧洲天然气填满库存?气价或将连续第四周下跌
Hotspot 2: European gas is full of stocks? Gas prices may fall for the fourth consecutive week
欧洲天然气价格可能出现连续第四周下跌，原因是充足的液化天然气供应帮助欧洲各国在供暖季开始前填满库存。截至24日，荷兰近月天然气价格下跌2.4%，至每兆瓦时183欧元，本周已累计下跌约2.6%。
The fourth consecutive drop in European gas prices is likely due to the fact that sufficient supplies of liquefied natural gas have helped European countries to fill their stocks before the start of the heating season. As at 24, Netherlands gas prices had fallen by 2.4 per cent in recent months, to Euro183 per megawatt, a cumulative decline of about 2.6 per cent this week.
欧洲的储气库目前已填满约87%，同时船舶跟踪数据显示，另有四艘美国液化天然气(LNG)货船表示将把欧洲西北部作为目的地，其中三艘将于10月初抵达。
While Europe's reservoirs are now approximately 87 per cent full, ship tracking data indicate that four additional United States Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) cargo vessels have indicated that they will be destined for the north-west of Europe, three of which will arrive in early October.
液化天然气进口一直是帮助欧洲国家实现过冬储备目标的关键。德国是该地区最大的天然气消费国，正寻求在未来几天从阿拉伯联合酋长国获得更多的天然气供应。届时，德国总理肖尔茨将访问阿联酋。
Liquefied natural gas imports have been key to helping European countries meet their winter reserve targets. Germany, the largest gas consumer in the region, is seeking more gas supplies from the United Arab Emirates in the coming days.
由于天然气目前的价格仍比5年平均水平高出约6倍，需求破坏也将继续。欧洲最大的汽车制造商大众汽车周四表示，如果天然气持续短缺，该公司可能会将生产从德国和东欧转移出去。
The current price of natural gas is still about six times higher than the five-year average, and demand damage will continue. The largest car manufacturer in Europe, Volkswagen, says on Thursday that if natural gas continues to run short, the company may divert production from Germany and Eastern Europe.
尽管如此，在俄乌冲突的影响减少了天然气供应后，欧洲的天然气市场仍然对任何潜在的中断很敏感。随着亚洲的消费量上升，未来几个月流向欧洲的液化天然气也可能下降。
Nevertheless, Europe’s natural gas market remains sensitive to any potential disruption after the effects of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict have reduced the supply of natural gas. As Asia’s consumption rises, the flow of liquefied natural gas to Europe may also decline in the coming months.
行业政策要闻：
要闻一：美联储加息符合市场预期?大宗商品短期无碍中期承压
highlights one: The Fed's interest increase is in line with market expectations?
美联储再次激进加息，对大宗商品影响几何？
How geometric are the effects of the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes on commodities again?
北京时间9月22日凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会宣布加息75个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间上调到3.00%至3.25%之间。这是美联储今年以来第五次加息，也是连续三次加息75个基点。
In the early hours of September 22, Beijing time, the United States Federal Reserve announced an interest increase of 75 basis points, raising the federal fund interest rate target between 3.00 and 3.25 per cent. This is the Federal Reserve’s fifth interest increase since this year, and 75 basis points in three consecutive increases.
就大宗商品盘面反应来看，截至9月22日早盘收市，全球大宗商品反应比较温和，其中国内大宗商品期货主力合约普涨。
In terms of the bulk commodity inventory response, as of 22 September, the global bulk commodity response had been more moderate, with a boom in domestic commodity futures master contracts.
对此，多位期货行业人士分析称，22日早盘的反应，主要是因为美联储此次加息符合市场预期，短期行情可能是加息靴子落地后的反弹。但是后续加息仍将持续，整体对大宗商品偏利空，不同品种受到的冲击不一样，供给紧张、库存压力较小的商品受影响较小，而供应宽松和库存压力较大的商品下跌幅度更大。
In response, several futures industry sources analysed the response of the early 22nd day, mainly as a result of the Fed’s current interest increase meeting market expectations, with short-term swings likely rebounding after the boot drops. But the subsequent interest hikes will continue, with the overall bias against bulk commodities, with different kinds of shocks, with supply-stressed, less under stock pressure, and a much larger decline in loose supply and higher stock pressure.
展望四季度，业内人士认为，国内外宏观环境预计仍将对大宗商品形成一定压制，大宗商品走势大概率是震荡重心略有下移。在投资策略上，当前大宗商品仍缺乏趋势性走势，不宜大规模进行单边的多空配置，而是寻求波段操作和品种间对冲。
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, industry sources argue that the domestic and foreign macro-environment is expected to remain somewhat repressive on commodities, and that the trend is likely to be a slight drop in the weight of shocks. In terms of investment strategies, there is still a lack of trending trends in commodities today, and it is not appropriate to undertake large-scale unilateral multi-empt configurations, instead of seeking wave-band operations and inter-species swaps.
要闻二：3只ETF期权合约登陆沪深交易所
highlights two: 3 ETF contracts landed on the deep exchange
9月19日，备受关注的三只ETF期权合约在沪深交易所上市交易。3只ETF期权上市首日成交额合计为23.39亿元。
On 19 September, three high-profile ETF options were traded on the Tianjin Exchange.
其中，挂钩南方中证500ETF的期权合约标的在上交所上市，首日成交金额为9.41亿元；挂钩嘉实中证500ETF的期货合约在深交所上市，成交金额为4.83亿元；标的为创业板ETF的创业板ETF期权登陆深交所，首日成交金额为9.15亿元。
Of these, the title contract for the South Central 500ETF was placed on the market, with an amount of $941 million on the first day; the futures contract for the 500ETF, with an amount of $483 million on the bottom line; and the start-up board of the Enterprise Foundation, with an amount of $915 million on the first day.
ETF期权合约，简单来说就是赋予期权买方在规定期限内按双方约定价格买入或卖出ETF的权利。ETF就是包含一篮子股票的指数基金。此次上市的创业板ETF期权是创业板首个面向创新成长类股票的风险管理工具。中证500ETF期权是首个基于中证500指数的场内期权产品。
ETF options contracts, simply to give options buyers the right to buy or sell ETFs at a mutually agreed price for a specified period of time. ETFs are index funds with a basket of stocks. The ETS options listed on the market are the first risk management tool for innovative growth-type stocks on the start-up board.
本次上市的3只ETF期权使得ETF期权品种进一步扩大至6只，同时扩大了期权标的范围，填补了中证500指数和创业板指数期权品种的空白。再加上中金所的沪深300股指期权、中证1000股指期权，A股场内衍生品市场已初步形成对大中小盘宽基指数期权的全覆盖。
The three ETF options listed in the current market have further expanded the ETF options to six, while widening the scope of the options, filling the gap between the China 500 index and the entrepreneurship panel. Together with the Chinese gold firm’s 300-centenary options, the Chinese 1,000-centenary options, the derivatives market in the A equity field has created an initial full coverage of the small and medium-sized broad-based index options.
展望后市表现：
能源化工板块：
Energy Chemical Block:
原油：美联储宣布加息75个基点，鹰派基调令市场担忧经济硬着陆，市场避险情绪升温，美元指数刷新逾20年高点。欧盟对俄罗斯实施石油制裁方案，G7将为俄罗斯油价设置上限，Argus数据称OPEC+产量缺口扩大至创纪录的358万桶/日，俄罗斯宣布进行部分动员使得乌克兰局势面临升级，供应忧虑支撑油市；EIA美国原油及成品油库存呈现增加，欧美央行加息前景使得市场忧虑经济及需求放缓，供应风险和需求放缓忧虑继续博弈，短线原油期价延续宽幅震荡。（瑞达期货）
Crude oil: The US Federal Reserve announced 75 basis points for interest hikes, the Eagle Keystones caused markets to worry about a hard landing, the market's evaporation, and the US dollar index for more than 20 years. The European Union imposed an oil sanctions programme on Russia, with G7 capping Russian oil prices, Argus data stating that the OPEC+ production gap had expanded to a record 3.58 million barrels per day, Russia announced partial mobilization that the situation in Ukraine was facing escalation and supply concerns were fuelling the oil market; the EIA stock of crude oil and finished oil was on the rise; the Euro-American Central Bank raised interest prospects had led to a slowdown in the economy and demand; supply risks and demand were slowing; and short-line crude oil prices continued to experience widespread shocks.
黑色系板块：
Black plate:
焦煤：供应端，焦煤供给短期收紧，近期矿山安全监管较严格，近期焦煤煤矿事故较频繁，产量受到一定干扰。另外，月底大秦线检修、电厂补库导致动力煤偏紧，部分煤矿有保供任务，对焦煤供应起间接影响。蒙煤方面，甘其毛都口岸通关维持高位，但风化煤拉运比重上升继续推高短盘运费，支撑蒙煤价格。需注意，近日风化煤比重有所回落。需求端，焦企国庆节前补库对焦煤价格起支撑，部分地区产地主焦煤价格上涨。综上，预计节前焦煤受供给偏紧、下游补库影响，价格受支撑，节后关注终端需求能否支撑钢厂利润回升，预计近期价格震荡运行。（混沌天成研究）
Coal: On the supply end, the supply of coke has been tightened in the short term, the safety of the mine has recently been more strictly regulated, and the recent coal mine accidents have been more frequent and the production of coal has been disrupted. In addition, late in the month, Qin line repairs, power storage in power plants have led to tight power coal, some coal supply has been secured, and the supply of coal has been indirectly affected. On the Mon Coal side, the port has maintained a high level of wool clearances, but the increase in the proportion of wind-fired coals has continued to push up short-discreet freight rates to support the price of coal.
有色金属板块：
Non-ferrous metal plate:
沪铜：美联储议息会议上加息75基点，并且鲍威尔表示将坚定推动通胀回落，暗示还将未来还将大规模加息，美元指数延续强势，打击风险情绪。基本面，上游铜矿进口供应增长，铜矿加工费TC上升，并且缺电缓解，利好炼厂生产恢复，但粗铜紧张加重可能导致产量不及预期。消费旺季来临下游需求改善，不过铜价走高且升水高企，令下游采购驻足，并且进口利润扩大，后续海外资源流入将增加。近期国内库存呈现小幅下降趋势，预计近期铜价延续调整。展望下周：预计铜价震荡调整，美联储鹰派态度，但库存持续去化。（瑞达期货）
Bronze: At the Federal Reserve meeting, the 75 basis point was raised, and Powell indicated that it would be determined to push inflation back, suggesting that it would also raise interest rates on a large scale in the future, and that the dollar index would continue to be strong and counter risk sentiment. Essentially, there was an increase in the supply of upstream copper imports, an increase in the cost of copper processing TC, and a reduction in power shortages, and a recovery in production in the extraction plant, but an increase in tension in copper could lead to less than expected output.
农产品板块：
Agricultural plate:
生猪：猪肉消费旺季来临，天气转凉以及学校、餐厅等地都对猪肉消费需求保持一定增量，且养殖户抗价惜售情绪浓厚，猪价上涨。生猪市场将进入十一国庆备货阶段，为保持市场供给，抑制猪价，国家通过投放大量储备冻肉及约谈猪企等两项措施来稳定猪价，本周将增大投储力度，但后期生猪市场消费并未有明显增量，市场情绪引导，在散户猪场惜售以及二次育肥反扑下，屠宰场难以顺利收猪，难以保障日常屠宰订单，只能被动提价。生猪现货价格上涨，期价回落。下周来看，政策端仍将继续投放猪肉储备保持市场供应，猪价难有较大涨幅，需求或有增加，养殖端或有惜售挺价情绪，屠企收猪有一定难度。关注政策端中央投放猪肉储备情况。（和合期货）
Pig prices have been stabilized by the State through the introduction of large stocks of frozen meat and interviews with pig companies, but there has been no significant increase in consumption in the later stages of the pig market this week. Market sentiment has led, under the sale of pig farms and secondary fertility, the slaughterhouse is difficult to collect pigs, the daily slaughter orders are difficult to secure, and only passively raise prices.
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