大饼的价值
本文主要阐述本人对于大饼价值的一些认识。
This paper focuses on some of my perceptions of the value of big pies.
大饼究竟是个什么东西，如果没有去稍微了解一下的话，会觉得这个东西很新奇，很复杂，完全搞不懂，其实大饼本身的技术原理并不复杂，稍微去看一下，还是很好看懂的。当然，其中涉及到一些技术，比如说哈希算法，椭圆曲线，公钥私钥等，要完全搞清楚这些技术原理，当然有些难度，不过要大致了解这些技术能实现什么效果，其实也并不难。
And if you don't get a little bit of it, it's kind of new, complicated, completely confused, but it's not really complicated, it's a little bit complicated, it's good to look at it. Of course, it's about technology, like Hashi algorithms, elliptical curves, public key privates, and so on, and it's a little difficult to get a complete picture of it, but it's not difficult to get a general picture of what these technologies can do.
就像我们如果要投苹果公司，虽然对于手机如何做出来，手机里面的芯片咋做，触摸屏咋做，陀螺仪咋做，其实都不清楚，但是不妨碍我们知道手机如何使用，有什么用途，人们多么喜欢手机。而专业技术方面的东西，可以适当交给技术专家，他们懂就行了。
Like if we were to cast 对于新事物，保持一个开放的心态，尤其重要。否则就是明明那个机会很早就摆在眼前，却因为听到一些人云亦云的偏见而没有客观的去了解，最后错失…… It's particularly important to keep an open mind about new things. Otherwise, it's the opportunity that's ahead of us, but it's not understood objectively because you hear the prejudices of some people, and you're missing it. 简单说一下大饼是个什么东西，更具体详细的可以网上自行了解—— Simply say what a big cake is, more specifically, that can be found on the Internet -- . 我们现在资金周转和交易的网络，是中心化的银行网络，每个人在银行有账户，如果要交易，资金在银行之间流转，银行作为中心化机构，负责给我们记账等。 We now have a network of revolving and trading funds, a central banking network in which everyone has an account in the bank and, if they are to be traded, the funds flow between the banks, and the banks, as central institutions, are responsible for recording our accounts and so on. 大饼这个网络，其实可以理解成和银行类似的资金流转交易的记账网络。在这个网络中，如果你转了一个大饼给别人，便会形成一笔交易，这笔交易如果是传统银行网络，便是银行机构来记账了。不过区别于中心化的银行网络，大饼的记账是分散的很多矿工节点们来记账。 In this network, if you turn a pie to someone else, a transaction is made by a bank institution, if it is a traditional banking network. But separate from a centralized banking network, the big pie accounts are accounted for by a large number of scattered miners. 矿工们拥有巨大的算力，大家一起来竞赛碰运气，碰一个数字，谁先碰对这个数，就有权利来记账。而多笔交易，会打成一个包进行记账，这个包就叫一个区块，你可以理解成一个砖块，砖块里面包含很多笔的交易。这个区块会接在上一个区块后面，形成一个链，你可以理解成穿的糖葫芦那样一串，一直串下去，所以叫区块链。 The miners have a great deal of money, and they come together to race for luck and touch a number, and whoever touches it first has the right to keep an account. And a lot of transactions, they'll be a package, and they'll be called a block, and you can understand it as a brick, with lots of deals in it. This block will be behind the last block, and it will be a chain, you can understand it as a bunch of twigs, and you'll be called a block chain. 当某个矿工碰对了这个数，获得了打包的权利并把交易数据打包成区块后，会把这个区块公布给网络上的所有节点，他们也会记录下这个交易数据，于是乎，整个大饼区块链的交易，会被这个网络中所有分散的节点都记录下来。而对于碰对了数的获得了打包权的矿工，会获得交易双方支付的一定手续费，同时大饼这个程序还会奖励他一定数量的大饼，这些奖励的大饼是这个网络新生成的，于是乎整个网络中大饼的数量逐渐增加，这就是所谓的挖矿了。 When a miner hits the right number, acquires the right to pack and wraps the transaction data into blocks, he releases it to all the nodes on the network, and they record the transaction data, so that the entire chain of pies is recorded by all the scattered nodes in the network. For the miner who hits the right number, he receives a certain fee from both parties, and the big pie is rewarded with a certain amount of cake, which is a new product of the network, so that the number of big pies in the network is gradually increasing, which is called mining. 现在我们来说大饼一些现阶段就看得见的价值—— Now we're talking about some of the value that the big pie can see at this stage -- . 一个东西，之所以能存在或者被发明后得到应用普及，一定是有使用价值的。空调为什么会被发明？因为他可以调节温度；音乐为什么存在？因为他听着爽，舒服；电影、电视剧、小说等为什么存在？因为人们天生是喜欢故事的动物，这源于远古为了更好获得信息，传播信息，记忆信息等的进化过程；电话、微信为什么被发明出来并流行？因为人们有通信社交等的需求。 One thing, whether it exists or is invented, must be of use. Why is air conditioning invented? Because he can regulate the temperature; why does music exist? Because he listens well and is comfortable; why does film, TV drama, novels, etc. exist? Because people are born to like stories, because of the evolution of ancient times for better information, information, memory information, etc.; why are telephones, micro-letters invented and popular? 世界上各种被使用或者发明的东西，都是服务于人的，都是满足人的某种需求。而需求，有的是显而易见的痛点，迫切需要解决的，于是人们想尽办法得以实现，比如说我们想到某个地方去，越快越好，于是研究出了骑马、马车、马路、汽车、飞机等。 Everything that is used or invented in the world is in the service of people, and it meets some of their needs. And there are obvious pains, and there is an urgent need to address them, so people try to do what they can, for example, think about going somewhere, and the sooner the better, the more we look at riding horses, wagons, roads, cars, airplanes, and so on. 有的需求，可能是我们在现有的生活中，很难感受到，或者不敢去想的，就好比封建社会女性不敢想一夫一妻，百姓不敢想民主共和一样，就像一百多年前人们不敢想人可以在天上飞一样。 There is a need, perhaps in our existing lives, that is hard to feel or dare to think about, as if women in feudal societies were afraid to think of a single wife, people were afraid to think of a democratic republic, as if more than a hundred years ago people were afraid to think that people could fly in the sky. 但是，有极少数洞察力极强的人，也可能是正好碰巧了碰上的，发明了某种东西出来，然后我们发现这个东西太好了太棒了，于是喜欢上了这种东西。就比如说互联网，苹果手机，没有被发明出来前，很难想象互联网这么爽，智能手机这个东西这么方便；就比如说伟哥，本是想研究缓解心绞痛的药，想要的目的没达到，却碰巧还有那种效果…… But there are a few very perceptive people, or maybe just happen to happen to come up with something, and then we find it so wonderful, and we like it. Like the Internet, 说社会不断进步，科技不断进步，生活越来越好，其实就是人们不断去发现问题，并用科技解决问题，发现需求，并用科技满足需求的过程。而一旦某个东西确确实实满足了人们的某些重要需求，且在商业上可行后，往往就会流行起来。 It is the process of people discovering problems and using them to solve problems, to discover needs, and to use them to meet needs. And once something really meets some of people’s important needs, and is commercially viable, it tends to pop up. 上述是关于一个东西之所以出现或者存在的原因的阐述，重点是需求，人究竟有没有这个需求。更为重要的，要理解大饼，还要试着用一种无中生有或者面对社会形态更迭的那种剧烈变化的魄力去理解。 The above is a description of why something is happening or exists, and the focus is on demand. More important, to understand a big cake, to try to understand it with the energy of a radical change that has nothing to do with, or is faced with, changing social patterns. 一方面要知道社会是在不断演变的，剧烈的演变，比如说从奴隶制到封建制到现代社会，比如说婚姻制度从原始社会的群婚群居，到以前欧洲的妓女+情妇+妻子，到上帝鉴证一夫一妻，以及我们国家的一夫一妻多妾到新中国成立后的一夫一妻，到现在大谈的独居，丁克，同性结婚等等。 On the one hand, it is important to know that societies are evolving and dynamically evolving, from slavery to feudalization to modern society, such as marriage systems that ranged from group marriage in the original society, to former European prostitutes + mistress + wife, to monogamous testimony by God, and to monogamous concubines in our country after the formation of the new China, to monogamous living, Dink, same-sex marriage and so on. 另一方面，身在当前时代，依然要相信这种演变是随时都在发生的，没有什么是理所当然、天经地义、亘古不变的。 On the other hand, in the present era, it is still important to believe that this evolution is taking place at all times, and that nothing is natural, natural and immutable. 来说大饼的价值！要说大饼的价值，少不了说他的一些特性，在基于这些特性上，我们来理解他是不是有存在的意义，是否能满足人们的某种需求。如果一个东西确实完全没用或者相比已有的东西，完全没有优势，那他就成功不了，道理就像电动车如果相比燃油车没有优势的话，他就替代不了燃油车。而电动车相比燃油车有很多优势，时机成熟，替代就成了必然。 To say the value of a big cake, we need to say some of his characteristics, and on the basis of them, we understand whether he has any meaning and needs. If something does not work at all or has no advantage over what already exists, he will not succeed, as if an electric car would not replace a fuel truck if it had no advantage over a fuel truck. 大饼网络的特点有：去中心化、匿名性、不可篡改性、稀缺性、全球随时随地接入性和全球流通性。 The network is characterized by decentralisation, anonymity, non-frozenness, scarcity, global and local access and global circulation. 1. 去中心化 。现有的银行网络是中心化的，这就意味着银行可以冻结你的资金；这就意味着美国可以没收俄罗斯富豪在美国的资产。而去中心化，网络分布在世界各地，没有任何一个国家可以控制这个网络，那么大饼就能让人实现真正的“私有财产神圣不可侵犯”。这是非常重要的。不过身在中国，太平盛世，可能理解不了。但要知道，这个世界有很多国家都非常混乱的，我们的资金存银行也好，买房子也好，存瑞士银行也好，真的能完全被自己掌控吗？ 1. The existing banking network is centralized, which means that banks can freeze your funds; this means that the United States can confiscate the assets of the rich Russians in the United States. And decentralize, the network is distributed around the world, and no country can control it, so that the big pie can make real “private property sacred.” It's very important. But in China, 2. 匿名性。 如果在银行有存款，或者有房产之类的，别人是可以知道的，可以轻易冻结、没收、查封的。存金条存现金也一样可以被坏人抄家。比如说一个小国家的有钱人，现在国家动乱，一群持枪分子冲进他家，把他家掀个底朝天等，家里的东西说没就没了。又或者说，一个小国家塞浦路斯快要破产了，政府打算强行对银行存款征收5-10%的税，其实就是没收，塞国的人能咋办……匿名性加上去中心化，是可以保证你的私有财产真正不受侵犯的，并且，你如果有一笔财富放在大饼上，其实别人根本都无从知晓。这些优点，身在中国可能理解不到，但是但凡哪个国家有些动荡，或者权利不受约束，尤其富人们的财富，怕不怕被没收，强征，收归国有之类的，如果你是富人，要不要配置一部分财富到大饼上，以防万一？ 2. If there are deposits in a bank, or if there are properties, others can know that they can be frozen, confiscated, and seized. Cash deposits can also be seized by bad people. For example, rich people in a small country, who are now in trouble with guns, run into his house, blow his family to the ground, and everything is gone. Or, if a small country of Cyprus is about to go bankrupt, the government intends to impose a 5-10% tax on bank deposits, which is actually confiscation, what the people of the country can do... anonymity, plus centralization, can guarantee that your private property is truly inviolable, and if you have a fortune on a cake, you're not even aware of it. 3. 不可篡改性，安全性。这一点虽然说现在正常的银行体系也能基本保证，谈不上什么新鲜东西，但是对于大饼这个新事物，却是很重要的。就好比新能源车要替代燃油车，人们会问，电动车安全吗？虽然燃油车也安全，但是电动车如果不安全，那就没戏了……安全，不可被篡改，对于这个新事物，也是很重要的基本条件。 3. This is immutable and secure. , although the normal banking system now has little to say about new things, it is important for this new thing. It is like the new energy vehicle is to replace the fuel car, and people ask if the electric car is safe. 4. 稀缺性。 大饼被程序限定在2100万个，是比黄金还稀缺的东西。黄金是比较稀缺的，不过每年依然有一定程度的新开采量。因为黄金的天然货币属性，在法币时代，从布雷顿森林体系解体后，长期保持了6%左右的增长，是跑赢通胀的。而大饼的稀缺性远比黄金强，如果大饼被完全普及，除了这个普及阶段的大幅上升外，成熟期以后，可能都会有较好的升值动力，跑赢通胀应该比黄金要容易。当然，关于大饼的稀缺性，有的人有不同的看法，这点我们后面说。 Scarceness. Breads are programmed to be limited to 21 million, and are scarcer than gold. Gold is scarce, although there is still a certain amount of new mining every year. Because of their natural monetary properties, during the French-currency era, after the break-up of the Bretton Woods system, growth of about 6% has been sustained over a long period of time, and they run for inflation. 5. 全球随时随地的接入性和流通性。这点非常重要。这意味着只要有网络的地方，人们可以随时随地进行转账，交易，变现等。想想现有的货币体系，你能做到把自己的资产轻松的带到任何一个地方去吗？银行里面的钱可以随便转哪里去吗？大把的现金能全球随便带着走吗？黄金疙瘩能随便带着走吗？但是大饼却可以，且成本极低。想想一个国家发生战乱，一个逃难的人怎么带走自己的资产？想想一个国家如果治理非常差，百姓好不容易积累了一笔财富，但国家又对外汇进行管制等，这个国家的百姓如何带着自己的财富逃离这个国家。 5. This is very important for global access and mobility everywhere. This means that whenever there is a network, people can transfer, trade, cash, etc. whenever there is a network. Think of the monetary system, can you easily take your assets anywhere? Can money in a bank be transferred anywhere? Can money be carried around the globe? 并且这种全球随时随地可以接入的网络，还可以不断衍生出各种各样的经济形式。比如说基于大饼衍生出以太，基于以太衍生出各种其他经济形式。全球的可接入性，全球的人都能在这个网络中活动，保不齐什么时候又诞生一个像V神一样的天才，又开发出了什么神奇的应用。 And this global network, which can be accessed anywhere in the world, can continue to generate a variety of economic forms. For example, it is derived from a big pie, and it is derived from a variety of other economic forms. Global accessibility allows people all over the globe to operate in the network, and it is uncertain when a genius like V God can be born, and what magical applications have been developed. 鉴于大饼的上述特征，我们至少能看到大饼在储值方面，远超黄金，无可比拟的优势。大饼的特性非常类似数字版的黄金，但是比黄金更稀缺，更能“偷偷摸摸”存储财富，带走财富，而大量黄金疙瘩是没法带着走的。 Given the above-mentioned characteristics of the big cakes, we can see at least that the big cakes are far above gold and have an incomparable advantage in saving values. The big cakes are very similar to the digital version of gold, but they are more scarce than gold, they can “sneak” their wealth, they take away their wealth, and they have a lot of golden bumps that cannot be carried with them. 所以，大饼作为一个新事物，有没有他独特的价值？显然是有的。 So, as a new thing, does he have a unique value? Obviously there is. 一方面，作为人们试图保证自己的私有财产真正能够不受侵犯的话，进行一定比例配置的需求，而这种需求对于富人来说，尤其是一些国际形势不太乐观的国家的富人，或者一些权利不受约束的国家的富人更为重要，他们总得防着自己的财富被权利，武力剥夺的可能。而这种能力，本国的法币做不到，存黄金做不到，拿着美元存瑞士银行，现在有了俄罗斯案例后，也不太好说了呀。 On the one hand, as people try to ensure that their private property is truly inviolable, the need for a proportional allocation is even more important for the rich, especially in countries that are less optimistic internationally, or in countries whose rights are unbridled, who always have to guard themselves against the possibility of being deprived of their wealth by force. This capacity, the inability of their national French currency, the inability to hold gold, the holding of dollars in Swiss banks, and now, in the case of Russia, is not easy to say. 另一方面，基于大饼的特性使得大饼有独特的价值，那么在特别稀缺的基础上，在法币不断通胀贬值的基础上，利用大饼储值，不光财富不受侵犯，长期来看还能有很好的升值能力。 On the other hand, the characteristics based on big pies give them a unique value, so that, on a particularly rare basis, the reserve of big cakes, based on the constant depreciation of French currency inflation, can be used not only to protect their wealth but also to appreciate them well in the long run. 第三，大饼开启了一个通过技术，人们可以在财富上不受侵犯的时代，是社会走向更加公平这个历史发展大方向上的重要一步。潘多拉盒子已经打开，就再也关不上了。就像处在现代民主社会中的人们，永远不可能回到封建社会、奴隶社会一样；就像二战后全球觉醒民主自治之后，人们不可能再允许以前古代，大国，大帝国可以任意侵略、吞并、奴役周边国家一样。在这个新技术的支持下，各种各样的新经济模式逐渐诞生，大饼未来的使用前景，可能会多得现在想象不到。因为开启了一个时代，就起码又有了收藏价值…… Third, the big cakes have opened an era of technology in which people can be free from aggression in wealth and are an important step in the direction of a more equitable society. The Pandora box has been opened, and it will never be closed again. Like people in modern democracies, it will never be possible to return to feudal societies, to slave societies; as with the global awakening of democratic self-government after the Second World War, it will be impossible to allow the old times, the great Powers, and the great empires to invade, annex, and enslav the surrounding countries at will. With the support of this new technology, new economic models have emerged, and the prospects for the future of the big cakes may be much greater. 综合来说，大饼属于眼前有实实在在的应用价值为保障，保证他能存活；同时还能一眼看到因为普及率不高，实实在在的应用价值都远未饱和；同时，还可能有完全想象不到的应用空间等待挖掘。就好像苹果手机刚发明两三年，一方面确实挺好用，人们喜欢，这点可以托底；而智能手机优势明显，未来普及率还要提高，苹果还可以赚渗透率提升，销量继续增加的钱；第三点则是基于智能手机下的移动互联网经济，充满无穷想象空间。 In a nutshell, the big cakes are the real applications that guarantee his survival; they are the ones that have been invented for two or three years, and they are actually good, and people love it, which is the bottom line; smartphones have the advantage of improving their future penetration, apples can increase penetration and sales continue to increase; the third point is based on smart phones, which are based on "https://xueqiu.com/S/SZ160636"? 关于大饼的疑问，讨论比较多的有几个，我们来看看—— There are a few more questions about the big pie. Let's see-- 1. 大饼的稀缺性问题 1. Scarcity of cakes 大饼可以无限细分一亿分之一，说明根本不稀缺？这个问题太二，不想回答。 Breads can be divided by one in every 100 million, indicating that they are not scarce at all? The question is too second and does not want to be answered. 别人可以轻易复制大饼，所以大饼不稀缺？大饼是一个共识网络，大家认他，他就是大饼，大家不认，他就啥都不是。复制出来的各种类似大饼的链多的是，但是大家根本不认呀。这里千万不要低估了共识的力量。 The big pies are easy to copy, so the big ones are not scarce? The big pies are a network of consensus, everybody knows him. He's a big pie, everybody doesn't know. He's got a lot of big pie-like chains, but everyone doesn't. Don't underestimate the power of consensus here. 共识是世界上最难的事情，小到一家公司做品牌，大到一个国家的认同，宗教的认同，本质都是共识。一个强烈的共识在一家公司上，那就是茅台，苹果，可口可乐，爱马仕。我们如果买这些公司的股票，我们买的啥？买的就是品牌。品牌是啥？就是共识。茅台好，茅台牛逼，这种共识要建立容易吗？要打破容易吗？哪个白酒或者包包公司敢说自己能搞一个比茅台、爱马仕还牛的品牌共识出来？ Consensus is the most difficult thing in the world, small to one company, big to one country's identity, religious to one. A strong consensus in one company is: , 大到国家，宗教一样。美国能不能解体了？基督教会哪天大家不认了，消失吗？我们可以所有的钱都存银行，买国债，认为这是安全资产，本质都是认为国家不会解体，而背后都是人们的共识。 As big as a country, like religion. Can the United States disintegrate? When will Christianity disappear and disappear? We can put all our money in banks and buy State debt as a security asset, essentially believing that the country will not disintegrate, but that there is a consensus behind it. 2. 世界各国不允许大饼的存在？ 2. The nations of the world do not allow the existence of big pies? 说大饼会挑战法币，各国不会允许大饼的存在？现在的真实情况是，主流国家，除了少部分国家，像我们国家之外，其他国家都是允许的，像美国，还有coinbase这样的交易所在纳斯达克上市，还有专门的大饼ETF。我们国家嘛，对于这种东西历来都很谨慎的，和体制有关系，慢慢来嘛。 To say that big pies challenge French coins, countries won't allow big pies to exist. The real situation is that mainstream countries, except a few, like ours, are allowed in other countries, and exchanges like the United States and coinbase are listed in NASDAQ, with special big pies and ETFs. Our country, for its part, is traditionally cautious, institutional, and slowly. 再有，大饼这种全球分散的网络，不是说谁不允许就能怎么样的。除非把全球互联网通通关闭，否则，只要有任何一个地方偷偷摸摸运行网络节点，大饼就一直在。如果说要全球所有国家达成共识抵制大饼，出台法律，搞大饼违法，也基本不可能，大家利益根本不一致，并且就算大家都抵制，就像毒品，大家都抵制，也依旧存在呀，执法总是有成本的。 Unless the world’s Internet is shut down, the big cakes will remain as long as there is no place to sneak around the nodes. If there is a global consensus among all countries to resist the big cakes, introduce laws, make the big cakes illegal, it is almost impossible, the interests of all are not the same, and even if everyone resists, like drugs, everyone resists, there is always a cost to law enforcement. 并且前文讲过，这是潘多拉魔盒，打开了就关不上，就算把大饼搞掉了，还会有烧饼、葱油饼出来，所以费特别大的力气打掉大饼也没意义。所以走到现在，大家也意识到这是发展的大趋势，主要的方向还是如何监管的问题，以及像美国，如何利用稳定币，进一步强化美元地位…… And, as I said before, it's Pandora's box, it's open, it's open, and even if it's gone, there'll be pancakes and onion oils, so it doesn't make any sense to take them out. So, by now, you realize that it's a big development trend, the main direction or the question of how to regulate it, and how to use a stable currency, like the United States, to further strengthen the dollar. 3. 大饼会被别人超越，被替代？ 3. . > . > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >. 首先，大饼出来后，还出来了其他仿大饼的币对大饼的一些特性进行优化，比如说区块的大小，确认的速度，交易的费用，匿名性等等，但是大饼依然是大饼，并没有被超越被替代，为何？ First, when the big pies come out, there are other coins that optimize some of the characteristics of the big pies, such as size of blocks, speed of identification, transaction costs, anonymity, etc., but the big pies are still big and have not been replaced. Why? 一方面，大饼的主要定位是储值，最重要的是去中心化，安全可靠，而其他的一些特性，其实没有那么重要。而就去中心化，安全可靠方面，大饼是做得最好的。从去中心化的角度，大饼的创始人中本聪都离开了，现在的大饼完全是一个社区自治的状态，而如果后面要出现什么币，不太可能超越大饼的去中心化程度。后来出现的币，创始人往往都有利益述求的，而如果没有利益述求，又如何有动力去推广这个币？所以，要么去中心化程度不够，要么没法推广。 On the one hand, the main position of the big pie is that it is stored and, most importantly, de-centralized, safe and secure, while some other characteristics are not that important. And, on the other hand, de-centralized, safe and secure, the big pie is the best. From the point of view of de-centralization, all of its founders leave. 另一方面，由于大饼的先发优势，大饼的品牌认知度是最高的，整个网络也是体量最大的，越高的品牌认知，会让这个网络越来越大，越来越大的网络算力，又会让整个网络越难以被攻破，变得越来越安全，形成正向反馈。并且大饼的品牌认知度特别高，几乎是所有人但凡知道一丁点加密货币，一定知道大饼，并且除了大饼之外别的加密货币，就很少有人知道了，其在加密货币中的影响力地位，甚至超越了茅台爱马仕苹果在各自领域的地位。所以，从品牌的角度看，超越茅台爱玛士苹果有多难？超越大饼至少就有多难。 On the other hand, because of the pre-existing advantages of the big cakes, the big pies have the highest branding, the whole network has the largest, and the higher branding will make the network ever bigger, the bigger network computing power, and the more secure the entire network will become, and the feedback will be forthcoming. And the big cakes have the most sophisticated branding, almost everyone but almost everyone knows a bit of encrypted currency, and few know about the big cakes, except the big ones, whose influence in encrypted money goes beyond 第三，大饼其实也在不断进化的。一个本身优势就及其明显，品牌影响力，规模优势，网络效应优势如此之大，并且还可以逐渐进化的饼，想要超越得多难？ Third, the big pies are actually evolving. How hard is it to go beyond a cake that is its own advantage and its obvious, brand influence, its size, its network effect so powerful that it can evolve? 最后再说说投资大饼的姿势。 to end with the investment in the big pie position. 大饼毕竟是个特别新奇的东西，说大饼是超越使用了数千年的黄金的数字黄金，一堆代码就能值特别多的钱，确实比较不容易接受。也正是因为这一点，大饼从发明出来到现在，都是随着时间的推移在慢慢上涨，随着时间的推移，慢慢的被越来越多的人认识并接受，这个接受的速度是相当慢的。 The big pie is, after all, a particularly novel thing, saying that the big cake is a gold number that goes beyond the thousands of years of gold, and that a bunch of codes are worth a lot of money, and it's not easy to accept it. And that's precisely why the big cakes, from their invention to the present, are slowly rising over time, slowly becoming known and accepted by more and more people over time, and it's very slow to accept it. 我们都知道，像智能手机，微信，电动车这些东西，真正发现好用且价格合理后，接受起来都非常快。而大饼，作为优于黄金的储值方式，至今，算上未开采出的市值一共就4000亿美元左右，而黄金的市值，不算未来每年新增开采，就大约9万亿美元，还差着20多倍。 We all know that things like smartphones, micro-letters, electric cars, when they are actually found to be useful and reasonably priced, are very fast to accept. And the big pie, as a storage over gold, has so far a market value of about $400 billion that has not been mined, while the market value of gold is about $9 trillion, which is more than 20 times less than the value of any new mining in the future. 要投大饼，需要对货币知识有了解，需要对计算机知识有了解，还要对人类文明，科技发展的规律有了解，还要对投资有了解，所以接受起来就比较慢。当然，也正是因为比较慢，才让大饼这么好的东西没有一飞冲天，而是不断的出现熊市，给人上车的机会。虽然至诞生到现在已经涨了太多太多，但现在还好，并没有让人高攀不起。 Big cakes require knowledge of money and knowledge of 想想，大饼一共2100万，还因为早期不值钱等被人丢了3-400百万个，我们假设有1800万个。那么，如果大饼最后成功了，能够拥有一个大饼，也就拥有了一个超大规模财富中的1800万分之一。要知道，全球80亿人，就算稍微富裕一些的36亿人，拥有一个大饼，就相当于站在了200挑一，前0.5%的头部。如果黄金市值9万亿美元，考虑到未来市值的增长，法币的超发，假如十年后增长到15万亿美元，等大饼超越黄金后，一个饼就相当于85万美元。当然，如果大饼真的成功，潜力可能完全不止于此。 Think of it as 21 million, and because of the loss of 3 to 4 million at no cost in the early years, we assume 18 million. So, if the pie succeeds, it will have one of the 18 million shares of a super-large wealth. You know, 8 billion people around the world, if they are slightly richer than 3.6 billion, have a big pie, it's 200 pick one, top 0.5% head. If gold is worth $9 trillion, considering future market value growth, the French dollar is over-exploitated, and if it grows to $1.5 trillion in ten years, one cake will be worth $850,000 after it exceeds gold. 如果要投大饼，一方面要对大饼有了解。另一方面，就是投资的姿势。如果有能力对大饼认识比较深刻，信心比较充足，那么可以投比较多的仓位。而如果自身认知能力有限，但有大致能感受到其中蕴含的机会的话，怎么投呢？ If you want to throw a big pie, you need to know something about it. On the other hand, you need to invest in it. If you have the ability to know it better and have the confidence to do so, you can do more. And if you have limited cognitive capacity, but you have the opportunity to feel it. 其实，可以用买彩票的期望收益来考虑。一方面，如果大饼能成功，至少能和黄金市值相当，则上涨空间还有20倍，且不排除更加巨大的潜力，那么我们根据自己对大饼的理解，给50%的成功率，如果失败了，就当归零吧，那么这其中的期望收益依然有20*50%-1*50%=9.5倍。那如果自己对大饼更有信心，觉得成功的概率更大，或者即便不成功，恐怕也死不了，就当腰斩吧，那么可以给20*80%-0.5*20%=15.9倍。 On the one hand, if the big pie succeeds, at least equal to the market value of gold, there is still 20 times as much room for increase, not excluding much greater potential, then, according to our understanding of the big cake, we give 50 per cent of the success rate, and if it fails, it is zero, and the expected return is still 20 50 per cent-1 < i > /i* 50 per cent = 9.5 times. If we have more confidence in the big cake and feel more likely to succeed, or if we do not succeed, then we can cut ourselves, then we can give 20 < /i* 80-0.5 * 20 per cent = 15.9 times. 面对新事物，感觉很陌生，虚，不敢投？其实仓位是个好的解决办法。想想我们在股市，随便一个波动，可能就亏5-10%，那么如果面对这样可能的大机会，我们拿个资金的3-5%投进去，或者更少，就算亏了，也无关紧要呀，但是成功了，这个收益是很大的。很多时候，我们都要把分析落实到概率期望的计算上，而不是感性。 Faced with new things, it feels strange, empty, and afraid to vote? In fact, a warehouse is a good solution. Thinking of us in the stock market, with any swing, it could be 5 to 10 per cent less, then, if we face such a great opportunity, we put 3 to 5 per cent of the money in it, or less, and it doesn't matter, if we lose it, but it works, and it's a big gain. In many cases, we all have to apply the analysis to the calculation of probabilities, not to sensitivity.
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