以太坊现货ETF最新动态与市场预测：发行商提交修订文件，最高目标价格为8000美元

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摘要：另一方面，随着SEC对以太坊现货ETF通过预期升温，灰度以太坊信托（ETHE）负溢价率已收窄至1182%。VariantFund首席法务官JakeChervinsky对此表示，这意味着如果美国SEC批准以太坊现货ETF，其将不得不承认非质押ETH不是一种证券。...
Summary: On the other hand, as the EC’s exposure to Ether's spot Ether Ether Ether is expected to increase, the greyscale and Ether Trust’s (ETHE) premium has narrowed to 1182%. VariantFund’s Chief Advocate, Jake Chervinsky, has said this, meaning that if the US SEC approves the use of the ETF, it will have to admit that the non-assured pledge of ETH is not a security...

原作者：南志

Original author: Nan Chi

原文来源：Odaily星球日报

Source: Odaily Planet.

今天早上，彭博社 ETF 分析师 James Seyffart 在 X 平台发文称：“平台发文说：“平台发文说：“ 5 隐藏的以太坊现货 ETF 发行人已经通过了 Cboe BZX 向美国 SEC 递交 19 b-4 修订文档，包括：富达、富达、富达、VanEck、Invesco/Galaxy、Ark/21 Shares 和 Franklin。”DTCC 官方网站也已列出 VanEck 现货以太坊 ETF“VANECK ETHEREUM TR SHS”（代码为 ETHV）。

This morning, the Bloomberg ETF analyst, James Seyffart, wrote on platform X: “The Platform writes: “The Platform writes that: “5 The hidden Ether's off-the-shelf ETF issuer has submitted 19 b-4 revised documents to the United States SEC via Cboe BZX, including: Fuda, Fuda, Fuda, Van Eckk, Invesco/Galaxy, Ark/21 Shares and Franklin.” The DTTCC official website also lists Van Eck's off-the-shelf ETF “VANECK ETHERUM TR SHS” (code ETHV).

另一方面，跟着 SEC 以太坊现货 ETF 通过预期的升温，灰度以太坊信托（ETHE）负溢价率已缩小至 11.82% 。据相关人士透露，灰度已向美国证券交易委员会提交以太坊迷你信托 19 b-4 更新表格，确定其以太坊迷你信托不会直接或间接参与 ETH 质押。

On the other hand, following the EC ETA spot ETF, the greyscale ETHE premium has been reduced to 11.82% by the expected increase in temperature. According to sources, the Greyscale has submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission the Etheria Mini Trust 19b-4 update form to make it clear that the Etherian Mini Trust is not directly or indirectly involved in the ETH pledge.

在之前的文件中，灰度建议投资者可以通过信托基金质押以太坊，但在周二提交的修订后的初步代理声明中没有这样的措辞。包括富达在内的其他发行人也采取了类似的措施（删除了质押信息）。

Other issuers, including Fuda, have taken similar measures (the pledge information has been deleted).

昨日，据内部人士透露@tier 10 k 在 X 该平台披露，美国证券交易委员会已告知该交易所，他们专注于允许现货以太坊 ETF。

Yesterday, according to insiders, @tier10k revealed on X platform that the US Securities and Exchange Commission had informed the exchange , which focused on allowing spot to be used as an ETF.

三位知情人士表示，美国证交会（SEC）周一，官员们意外地要求纳斯达克和芝加哥期权交易所（CBOE）快速更新和修改其现货以太坊以太坊 ETF 上市申请文件，这通常是获准前提出的要求，表明该机构可能准备好允许这两家公司申请。美国证交会必须在本周末之前决定是否允许 CBOE 递交的 VanEck 和 ARK Investments/21 Shares ETF 上市申请，交易所需要美国证交会批准修订后的规则才能上市商品，而发行人仍需要证交会批准 ETF 只有注册声明才能开始交易。与交易所提交的文件不同，美国证监会没有明确的决策时间框架，这意味着现货以太坊以太坊 ETF 开始交易可能需要几个月的时间。

According to three informed sources, on Monday, officials unexpectedly asked NASDAQ and the Chicago Futures Exchange (CBOE) to quickly update and modify their spot ETF listing documents, which is usually a pre-approval requirement, indicating that the agency might be ready to allow the two companies to apply. US SEC must decide before this weekend whether to allow the CBOE to submit Van Eck and ARK Investments/21 Shares ETF listings, and the exchange would need the US CSR to approve the revised rules for listing of commodities, while the issuer would still need the SEC to approve the ETF to start trading only by means of a registration statement. Unlike the documents submitted by the exchange, US SEC has no clear decision-making time frame, which means that it may take months to start trading with the ETF in too much room.

据多位相关人士介绍，以太坊商品或证券的分类仍悬而未决，所以我们可以在上一节看到每个申请中的每个申请 ETF 主动求变，删除以太坊证券特征相关条款，部分观点如下：

As described by a number of interested parties, the classification of

Van Buren Capital 合伙人、金融律师 Scott Johnsson 表示，相关申请文件显示，以太坊现货 ETF 仍将按照“基于产品的信托份额”规则上市。

Van Buren Capital's partner and financial attorney Scott Johnsson stated that the application documents indicated that ETF would remain on the market under the “product-based share trust” rule.

Variant Fund 首席法务官 Jake Chervinsky 这意味着如果美国说，如果美国说， SEC 允许以太坊现货 ETF，它将不得不承认非质押 ETH 不是一种证券。这将是 SEC 一项重大政策措施，该机构此前拒绝承认BTC以外的任何资产是非证券商品。

Variant Fund Chief Legal Officer Jake Chervinsky means that if the United States says that the SEC allows the ETF to be made available in the courthouse, it will have to admit that the non-privileged ETH is not a security. will be a major policy measure for the SEC, which has previously refused to recognize any asset other than BTC as a non-portfolio commodity.

Cinneamhain Ventures 创始人 Adam Cochran 美国证券交易委员会表示，（SEC）主席 Gary Gensler 对以太坊的控制不断缺乏具体性，美国继续缺乏具体性 SEC 以太坊分类的不稳定和模糊立场可能会干扰数字货币领域的创新，并造成很大的不确定性。值得注意的是，以太坊目前正在接受美国 SEC 调查以确定是否应归类为证券。

Cinneamhaiin Ventures, founder of Adam Cochran, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, stated that Gary Gensler, Chairman of the Economic Commission for Europe (SEC), continued lack of specificity in the control of Etheria, and that the continued lack of specificity in the United States of the instability and ambiguity in the SEEC classification of the EC as a family could interfere with innovations in the field of digital currency and create considerable uncertainty. It is noteworthy that Etheruk is currently accepting the US SEC survey to determine whether it should be classified as securities.

Dragonfly 合伙人 Haseeb Qureshi 这意味着对以太坊的控制 ETF 态度的改变表明拜登政府对加密政策变得软弱，因为他们不想在选举竞争中因为无害的小事（指加密监管问题）而失去选票。

Dragonfly's partner Haseeb Qureshi means that the change of attitude towards Ether Control ETF suggests that the Biden government's encryption policy has become weak because they do not want to lose their votes in the election competition because of small, harmless matters (i.e. encryption regulation).

Qureshi 补充说：“未来几个月，市场将看到其他监管机构的态度发生变化。请注意，这并不是一个完全的逆转。只要你能减少冲突。特朗普肯定会更支持数字货币，但拜登会变软，不会完全失去加密货币的选票。”

Qureshi adds: “In the coming months, the market will see a change in the attitude of other regulators. Note that this is not a complete reversal. As long as you can reduce the conflict, Trump will certainly be more supportive of digital money, but Biden will be softer and will not lose the vote of encrypted currency.”

渣打银行预计，美国证券交易委员会本周将允许以太坊 ETF。渣打银行外汇研究与数字货币研究主管 Geoff Kendrick 说如果以太坊现货， ETF 获准，估计初始 12 个月将有 239 万-915 万枚 ETH 以美元计费的资金流入相当于约定的资金流入 150 亿至 450 亿美金。

The Chartered Bank expects that the US Securities and Exchange Commission will allow ETF this week. Geoff Kendrick, the research director for foreign exchange and digital currency studies at the Chartered Bank, says that if ETF is allowed to do so, it is estimated that 2.399 million to 9.15 million ETH denominated funds will flow into the United States dollar for an initial period of 12 months, amounting to between $15 billion and $45 billion.

Kendrick 他说：“从市值比例来看，这与我们的比特币相比 ETF 资金流入预测数据相似，这些估计正在被证明是准确的。”

Kendrick said, “In terms of the market value ratio, this is similar to our ETF inflow projections of , and these estimates are proving to be accurate.”

另外，如果以太坊 ETF 本周获批准，估计以太坊将与比特币保持价格汇率，以太坊将前往比特币 2024 年末将达到 8000 美金。

In addition, if Etheria ETF is approved this week, it is estimated that Ether will maintain a price exchange rate with Bitcoin, which will reach $800 by the end of 2024.

Kendrick 他说：“鉴于我们现在估计BTC将在进行 2024 年末达到 15 1万美元的水平意味着以太坊的价格将达到1万美元的水平 8000 美金。”

Kendrick said, "Since we now estimate that BTC will reach the level of $1.51 million by the end of 2024, it means that it will reach the level of $0.08 million at Tai-min."

Su Zhu 在 X 该平台发文称，ETH 价格开始上涨，我之前提到过，如果以太坊现货， ETF 确实获准了，那么 ETH 将在 3000 美元上涨 80% 至 5400 美金，BTC 将上涨至 80000 美金（ETH/BTC 汇率将达 0.0675) ETH 价格的新高。

Su Zhu wrote on X on the platform that ETH prices were starting to rise, and I mentioned earlier that if ETF was actually allowed to do so in the near future, ETH would increase by between US$ 3000 and US$ 5400, and BTC would rise to US$ 80000 (the ETH/BTC exchange rate would reach 0.0675) the new high ETH prices.

Kryptanium Capital 创始人 Daniel Yan 若以太坊 ETF 两天内获准的最佳交易策略是“买入” SOL/ETH”。理由如下： ETH 在过去 24 小时内已经上涨近 20% ；SOL 将是 ETH ETF 获批后的下一个受益人；ETH/BTC 在 BTC 现货 ETF 审批后一周内上涨 12% ，因为人们期待 ETH ETF（获准）；该策略市场参与度低，不是热门交易。

Daniel Yan, founder of Kryptanium Capital, would have been the best trade strategy approved in two days by Tai Fan ETF as “buy-in” SOL/ETH for the following reasons: ETH has risen by nearly 20% in the last 24 hours; SOL will be the next beneficiary of ETH ETF approval; ETH/BTC will have increased by 12% within a week after BTC's spot ETF approval because people expect ETH ETF (approved); the strategy market is less involved than the hot trade.

他还提示，BTC 价格是 1 月 10 日现货 ETF 获批后几周内下跌 15% 。

QCP Capital 该文件称，对于美国证券交易委员会，（SEC）可能允许(以太坊现货现货) ETF）的传言，QCP Capital 以太坊的现货价格不太可能在这里趋于稳定；如果现货现货， ETF 经批准，以太坊的价格将更接近 4000 今年晚些时候，美元的短期目标可能会达到 5000 美元；若未获准，以太坊的价格将下跌 3000 美金。这种不确定性导致了更高的波动性，但更好的交易可能是现货期货的基础，现在回报率再次超过了 10% 。

QCP Capital states that, in the case of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the rumour that the ETF may be allowed (on-the-spot), it is unlikely that the spot prices of QCP Capital will be stabilized here; if the spot is approved, the ETF will be closer to 4000, and the short-term target of US$ 5,000 may be reached later this year; if it is not allowed, it will fall by US$ 3000. This uncertainty leads to higher volatility, but a better deal may be the basis of the spot futures and now returns more than 10 per cent.

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