1美元等于多少日币

世界上最大的两种加密货币协议在网络活动和包容性方面显示出巨大的前景。虽然比特币的交易费用降至该网络区块奖励“减半”之前的水平，但随着过去一个月DeFi活动的增加，以太坊GAS的使用量飙升，达到历史最高水平。

The two largest encrypted currency agreements in the world have shown great promise in terms of online activity and inclusiveness. While Bitcoin’s transaction costs have fallen to levels before the network block incentive “50-50,” with the increase in DeFi’s activities over the past month, the use of the Pacific GAS has skyrocketed to record levels.

比特币交易变得更便宜

Bitcoin is getting cheaper.

在比特币网络上，单笔交易费用低于1美元，在撰写本文时徘徊在0.70美元至0.75美元之间。上一次出现这种水平是在2020年4月下旬，也就是在区块奖励“减半”的几周前，但在接下来的几天里，它的交易费超过了6美元。

On the Bitcoin network, the cost of a single transaction was less than $1, hovering between $0.70 and $0.75 at the time of writing. The last such level occurred in late April 2020, a few weeks before the block was awarded a “half-per-cent” prize, but in the next few days it was worth more than $6.

自那以来，比特币网络的交易费用一直在稳步下降。该网络在“减半”后失去了一批老矿工，想必他们已经卖掉了剩余的比特币和采矿设备。

Since then, the transaction costs of the Bitcoin network have been steadily declining. The network has lost a group of older miners after “half” and must have sold the remaining bitcoin and mining equipment.

比特币价格继续在9200美元和9800美元之间盘整。报告显示，过去几周的挖矿难度的向下调整已促使矿工重返比特币网络，尤其是规模较小的矿商。

Bitcoin prices continue to be rounded up between $9,200 and $9,800. Reports indicate that downward adjustments in the difficulty of mining over the past few weeks have prompted miners to return to the Bitcoin network, especially smaller miners.

通过下面的图表可以看出，5月19日至20日之后，交易费用已下降逾90%，6月15日跌至0.60美元。

As can be seen from the chart below, after 19 to 20 May, transaction costs have fallen by more than 90 per cent, to $0.60 on 15 June.

更低的收费意味着更快的网络交易，更多的矿工通过交换计算资源来确保比特币的安全和防护。在上月的“减半”事件后，集中化的担忧被放大，批评人士称，少数玩家主导了比特币活动。

Lower charges mean faster Internet transactions, and more miners exchange computational resources to ensure Bitcoin’s safety and protection. After the “50-per-cent” incident last month, concentrated concerns were magnified, with critics arguing that a small number of players dominate Bitcoin activities.

尽管今年5月比特币的交易费用达到了6美元的峰值，但有记录以来比特币收费最高的时期仍是2017年12月，那是一段对加密货币狂热和巨大散户兴趣的时期，导致比特币交易成本一度超过55美元。

Although the transaction cost of Bitcoin peaked at $6 in May of this year, the highest recorded period for Bitcoin was December 2017, a period of passion for cryptographic currency and a great displacing interest, resulting in Bitcoin trading costs once exceeding $55.

稳定币和去中心金融增加了以太坊的使用

Stable currency and go-to-centre finance increased Ether's use.

与此同时，以太坊GAS的使用量增加了好几倍。来自区块链分析公司Glassnode的数据显示，以太坊网络的活动，就GAS而言，处于历史最高水平。

At the same time, there has been a multifold increase in the use of the district GAS. Data from the block chain analysis company Glasnode shows that the district network is at its highest level in the case of the GAS.

Glassnode表示，自今年年初以来，GAS费用增加了58%，目前徘徊在600亿美元以上。

Glasnode indicated that since the beginning of the year, the cost of GAS had increased by 58 per cent and was currently hovering over $60 billion.

每一笔以太坊交易都需要一定的GAS，以确保交易成功或在网络上执行智能合同。在任何给定的时间，网络活动决定了确切的GAS价格，尽管它们没有显著的变化。

Each such transaction requires a certain amount of GAS to ensure the success of the transaction or the implementation of smart contracts on the Internet. At any given time, network activity determines the exact GAS price, although they have not changed significantly.

正如之前小天报道的，增加的稳定币（stablecoin）和去中心金融（DeFi）活动可能是GAS使用量增加的原因。上周，我们注意到Ethereum区块链上的稳定币Tether传输显著增加。

As reported a few days ago, increased stabilizer activity and deFi may have contributed to the increase in the use of GAS. Last week, we noticed a significant increase in steady currency transmissions on the Etheum block chain.

加密数据公司Messari的研究分析师瑞安·沃特金斯在相关研究中指出：“简而言之，以太坊被使用的次数比以往任何时候都多，在短短两年时间里，以太坊已经从一张空白的画布发展成为价值和用例的聚集新形势。”

In a related study, Ryan Watkins, research analyst for cryptography data company Messari, stated: “In short, the taupulega has been used more frequently than ever before, and in just two years it has evolved from a blank canvas to a new gathering of values and examples.”

市场风口是所有创业者都竞相追逐的东西，部分创业者想要借助风口努力一把，让自己的创业公司成长为市场新秀；也有部分创业者想要从风口中寻找时机，试图一劳永逸成为百万富翁。而如今的称得上暴利的风口除了网络直播之外，当属比特币。

The "p" market is something that all entrepreneurs compete for, and some entrepreneurs want to use the wind to make their own start-up companies grow into new markets; others want to find the time from the wind to try to become millionaires once and for all. And today's "black-blowing" is a bitcoin, in addition to live webcasts.

虽然如今比特币已经离开中国市场，且有诸多业内人士唱衰比特币，但依然有无数人向往追逐，那么比特币到底多大的魅力？据公开资料显示，早在2008年时，身为虚拟货币的比特币便被提出。这种虚拟货币不仅数量有限，而且具备一定的加密特性，对于普通人来讲十分神秘。

Although bitcoin has left the Chinese market today, and many people in the industry sing bitcoin, there are countless people who want to chase it, so how attractive is bitcoin? According to public sources, as early as 2008, bitcoin, which is a virtual currency, was proposed.

但对于专业人士来讲，比特币触手可得，因此起初并没有人在意这种虚拟货币。可随着互联网席卷全球，比特币开始受到重视，与此同时，比特币的价格也水涨船高。2014年，比特币正式进入中国市场，当年比特币中国的开盘价达到2562.41元。

But, for professionals, bitcoin was available, so no one initially cared about the virtual currency. But, as the Internet spreads around the world, bitcoin began to receive attention, while bitcoin prices rose.

短短3年后，比特币就被炒到9222元，而比特币相关的产业链也逐渐开始形成。由于我国相关部门及时意识到了这种虚拟加密货币的潜在威胁，因此2017年时国内禁止交易比特币。但这并不影响比特币在全球市场继续疯狂涨价，终于在2017年12月，达到了19850美元的最高价。

Three short years later, Bitcoin was fired to $9222, and the industry chain associated with Bitcoin began to take shape. As a result of our timely awareness of the potential threat of this virtual encrypted currency, domestic transactions were banned in 2017.

可以想象，一枚比特币就能卖到19850美元，如果手握数万甚至上百万枚比特币的话，何愁不能成千万富翁？日前，数据分析机构Blocktown Capita的执行合伙人詹姆斯·托达罗分享了一段视频，视频的内容是，如果在过去的5年，每天坚持买一美元的比特币的话，现在价值多少钱？

As you can imagine, a bitcoin could be sold to 19850, and if you hold tens of thousands or even millions of bitcoins, why not be a millionaire? A few days ago, James Todallo, executive partner of the data analysis agency Blocktown Capita, shared a video of how much would be worth if you insisted on buying a dollar a day for the past five years?

如果五年如一日，在比特币上投资亿美元的话，如今在比特币上的总投资额将达到1825美元。经过比特币在这5年时间内的涨涨跌跌，詹姆斯·托达罗认为，这些投资会带来大约22263美元的价值，而两万美元的价值，只需要每天付出一杯咖啡的钱。

If we invest $1825 in bitcoins in five years, as in one day, the total investment in bitcoins will now be $1825. After bitcoin’s up and down over the five years, James Todallo believes that these investments will bring about $22263 in value, while $20,000 in value will cost just one cup of coffee a day.

如此划算的买卖，相信大多数消费者都想做，但却苦于没有渠道，没有经验又害怕坚持不下去。当然，也有部分消费者担心比特币在未来大跌，至于比特币能否继续保持高价笔者不知，但可以肯定的是，如果比特币消亡，势必会有另外一种虚拟货币趁机崛起，你认为呢？

Such a cost-effective sale, believing that most consumers want to do it, but suffer from a lack of access, experience, and fear of persistence. Of course, some consumers fear that bitcoin will fall in the future. As for Bitcoin’s ability to remain high-priced, it is not known, but it is certain that if Bitcoin dies, another virtual currency will rise, don’t you think?

文/谛什么林

Man. What about Lin?

贬值3.3%！这是今年一季度人民币交上的答卷。由于受疫情影响，美元指数大幅波动，除美元外的其他货币均受到了较大的冲击。一季度人民币兑美元平均汇率为1：6.979，其中多次突破7关口。

Depreciates 3.3%. This is a response from the renminbi in the first quarter of the year. The United States dollar index has fluctuated significantly, and currencies other than the United States dollar have been hit considerably.

美元是如何影响人民币的？

How does the dollar affect the renminbi?

人民币汇率与美元有着紧密的联系，而美元又与美元指数高度相关，美元指数也是反映美国经济基本面的重要指标之一。

The renminbi exchange rate is strongly linked to the United States dollar, which is highly correlated with the dollar index, which is one of the key indicators reflecting the economic fundamentals of the United States.

因此，当美元指数上涨时，美元往往趋于强势，其他货币相对于美元则趋于贬值（人民币汇改后）。比如2018年1月份美元指数下跌了3.45%，同期美元则贬值了3.43%，即人民币对美元汇率升值了3.43%。

As a result, when the dollar index rises, the dollar tends to be stronger, while other currencies tend to depreciate relative to the dollar (after the renminbi). For example, the dollar index fell by 3.45 per cent in January 2018, while the dollar depreciated by 3.43 per cent over the same period, i.e., the renminbi appreciated by 3.43 per cent against the dollar exchange rate.

也就是说，当美元指数上升时，人民币则有更多的贬值压力。那么好，搞清楚这个逻辑后，咱们再来讨论最近经常破7的人民币汇率到底有没有被低估。

That is, when the dollar index rises, the renminbi has more pressure to depreciate. Well, then, once this logic is clear, let's talk about whether the RMB 7 exchange rate has been underestimated recently.

人民币被低估了吗？

Has the renminbi been underestimated?

自我国疫情全面爆发至今，美元指数大致经历了三个阶段：

Since the outbreak of the epidemic in our country, the United States dollar index has undergone approximately three phases:

1、中日疫情爆发期间。人民币和日元相对美元总体走弱，从而推升美元升值。此外，当时中国的疫情使得中国对欧元区的订单减少，影响欧元区经济，欧元也相对美元走弱。美元指数在这一时期总体上升。

In addition, the Chinese epidemic reduced China’s orders to the eurozone, affected the eurozone economy and weakened the euro against the dollar. The dollar index rose overall during the period.

2、海外和美国疫情爆发初期。此时受疫情恐慌情绪影响，美股开始下跌，美债收益率走低，同时美元流动性开始紧缩，美元指数也相应回落。

2. In the early days of the epidemic, both overseas and in the United States. As a result of the panic of the epidemic, the United States stock began to fall and the rate of return on US debt fell, while the liquidity of the dollar began to shrink and the dollar index fell accordingly.

3、全球疫情大爆发时期。由于前期美元流动性紧缩，再加上美元是传统的避险货币，在疫情大爆发后，除了美元以外，其他资产均在下跌，甚至包括传统避险货币日元、瑞郎以及黄金。美元在非美货币遭到大量抛售而贬值的情况下，被动开始升值。

In the aftermath of the outbreak, assets other than the United States dollar were falling, including the traditional hedge currency yen, Swiss francs, and gold. The dollar began to appreciate passively when non-United States currencies were dumped and devalued in large quantities.

所以就当前趋势来看，美元指数如果短期高位震荡，甚至继续冲高，人民币将面临着持续的贬值压力。

Thus, in the light of current trends, the dollar index will face persistent downward pressure if it continues to experience short-term high shocks, and even if it continues to rise.

但是就国内基本面来看，经济上咱们已经全面加快复工复产，金融上咱们并未完全跟随美国降息，政策空间相对更足；由于美国降息，中美利差加大，也增加了人民币资产的吸引力。

But in terms of domestic fundamentals, economic recovery has been fully accelerated. Financially, we have not followed the United States completely to reduce interest rates, and policy space is relatively adequate. As a result of the US interest rate reduction, the US-China spread has increased, adding to the attractiveness of renminbi assets.

至少从一季度来看，人民币最坏的时候已经过去了，而且央行在关键时刻也会出手，未来人民币总体还是会趋于震荡走势。

At least in a quarter, the worst-case scenario for the renminbi has passed, and the central bank will do the same at a critical time, and the renminbi will continue to swollen in the future as a whole.

人民币汇率多少才算合理？

What's the RMB exchange rate to make sense?

汇率是钱的价格，是由市场决定的。现代汇率体系是自布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，各国之间的汇率由固定制改为浮动制而形成的。既然是浮动，那么其影响因素就是多方面的，有升值也有贬值。

The exchange rate is the price of money, which is determined by the market. The modern exchange-rate system has evolved since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, with exchange rates shifting from fixed to floating between countries.

不过，人民币的升贬值都有一定的“舒适”区间，超过了，对咱们就不利：

However, the rise and devaluation of the renminbi were somewhat “comfort” in excess of what would be to our detriment:

假如人民币贬值过多，则会使得资金快速流出，外汇储备会有持续下降的风险；相反，如果人民币快速升值（汇率达到1:5），则会大大提高国内的进口成本，这对于我国这样的进出口贸易大国是致命的打击。

If the renminbi depreciates too much, it will result in a rapid outflow of funds and a constant risk of a decline in foreign exchange reserves; on the contrary, a rapid appreciation of the renminbi (with an exchange rate of 1:5) would significantly increase domestic import costs, which would be a deadly blow to a large country such as ours that imports and exports trade.

长期来看，我国的经济基本面正在回血，人民币国际化也在持续，人民币资产吸引力也将会明显得到提升。

In the long run, the country's economic fundamentals are returning, the renminbi's internationalization is continuing, and its asset appeal will be significantly enhanced.

如果您在过去五年中每天在比特币上投资1美元，将会有多少收入？可以说，确实会有很高的回报率。

If you had invested $1 a day in bitcoin in the last five years, how much would you have earned?

每天投资1美元的比特币

One dollar a day in bitcoin.

数据分析机构Blocktown Capital的执行合伙人詹姆斯·托达罗(James Todaro)在Twitter上分享了一段吸引人的视频。它显示了如果你在过去5年里每天在比特币上投资1美元会发生什么……

James Todaro, the executive partner of the data analysis agency Blocktown Capital, shared an interesting video on Twitter. It shows what happens if you invest $1 a day in bitcoin over the past five years.

他在推特上写道：“如果您在过去5年中每天向比特币投资1美元，将会是什么样子。每天一杯咖啡的成本是值得的……你今天的比特币将价值22,263美元。”

He wrote on Twitter: "What would it look like if you invested $1 a day in Bitcoin over the past five years? The cost of a cup of coffee a day is worth 22,263 dollars today."

接下来的问题是，你要付多少税务取决于你住在哪里。但即便如此，如果你每天花不到一杯咖啡(甚至一罐可乐)的钱，你就可以积累超过2万美元的比特币。

The next question is, how much tax you pay depends on where you live. But even so, if you don't spend a cup of coffee (or even a can of Coke) every day, you can accumulate over $20,000 in bitcoins.

因此，如果您认为每天1美元的BTC太少而不能算什么，詹姆斯·托达罗只是证明您想错了。

So if you think that BTC of $1 a day is too small to be worth anything, James Todallo just proves you're wrong.

现在的情况与2015年比特币价值1美元时有些不同。然而，正如他视频显示的那样，即使在2017年比特币价格达到创纪录的2万美元是时候，1美元的比特币仍然是盈利的。

The situation is somewhat different from when it was worth $1 in 2015. But, as his video shows, even at a time when it was a record 20,000 dollars in 2017, the dollar was still profitable.

你能每天投资1美元吗？

Can you invest $1 a day?

这段视频给人留下了深刻的印象，自然引来了大量的评论，大多是对这个头号加密货币的赞扬。然而，有趣的是，一个关注他的粉丝提出了一个有趣的观点。毕竟，你真的能每天在BTC投资1美元吗？

This video is impressive, and it naturally attracts a lot of comments, mostly commending the number one encrypted currency. Interestingly, however, a fan who cares about him makes an interesting point. After all, can you really invest $1 a day in BTC?

是否有交易所可以让您购买这么少金额的比特币，并值得支付佣金？例如，像Coinbase这样的交易所。最低购买金额为2美元，而他们会向您收取1美元的佣金。

For example, an exchange like Coinbase. The minimum purchase is $2, and they will charge you $1.

粉丝Bitcoin Rich提问道：“别误会我的意思，这很有趣，也很费功夫，但是你在哪里可以不用额外付费就能买到1美元一天的比特币呢？Coinbase上的最低消费是2美元，他们还会收取你1美元的费用。”

A fan, Bitcoin Rich, asked, "Don't get me wrong, it's funny and hard work, but where can you buy a dollar-a-day bitcoin without extra payment? The minimum consumption on Coinbase is $2, and they'll charge you $1."

还有P2P加密货币交易平台LocalBitcoins，一些卖家可能会用1美元的价格卖给你小额的比特币。但你最终可能会以高于市场价格的价格购买BTC，这意味着你将得到不到真正价值1美元的比特币。

And the P2P encrypted money trading platform Local Bitcoins, some of whose sellers might sell you small bitcoins at a dollar price. But you might end up buying BTC at a price higher than the market price, which means that you won't get bitcoins worth a dollar.

闪电网络研究员Stelios提到了Sparkswap，这是第一个建立在闪电网络上的加密货币交换平台。然而，当这项所谓的五年投资开始时，情况并非如此。

The Lightning Network researcher Stelios mentioned Sparkswap, the first encrypted currency exchange platform to be built on the Lightning Network. This, however, was not the case when this so-called five-year investment began.

所以，如果你忙着为自己每天买饮料而不是投资比特币而自责，那么这里有一些安慰。你以前不可能有这样的投资工具……但你可以试着在未来五年里开始积累比特币，然后比较结果。当然，您可以试着每月购买小额的比特币。

So, if you're busy buying drinks instead of investing in bitcoin, there's some comfort here. You couldn't have had such an investment tool before... but you could try to build up bitcoin over the next five years and compare results. Of course, you could try to buy small bitcoins every month.

在过去的5年里，您参与过什么样的定投，收益如何？请在下面的评论中分享给大家吧。

What kind of investment have you been involved in over the past five years, and what are the benefits? Please share this with you in your comments below.

从过去的7月份来看，美元兑换人民币汇率基本上在6.85到6.89的区间内震荡波动，并且没有突破6.90，虽然从过去几个月内的行情变化来看，美元兑换人民币外汇汇率在波动与变化当中前行，并且时高时低甚至还逼近7.0附近，但最后依然在震荡中下跌到1美元相当于6.7元人民币的位置。然而，进入8月份后根据目前最新美元兑换人民币外汇汇率可知，1美元相当于6.9387人民币，并且美元依然有上涨的走势，那么美元兑换人民币汇率为什么一路上涨？

From the past July, the exchange rate of the dollar to the renminbi fluctuated essentially between 6.85 and 6.89, and did not break 6.90, although the exchange rate of the dollar to the renminbi has moved forward in fluctuations and changes over the past few months and is at a high or even close to 7.0, it has eventually fallen in shock to the position of the dollar to the equivalent of 6.7 yuan. After August, however, according to the latest exchange rate of the dollar to the renminbi, it is known that the dollar is equivalent to 6.9387 yuan and that the dollar is still on the rise.

其实，根据历史行情来看，最近这波美元兑换人民币汇率一路上涨的走势跟去年美国对中国输美商品加征关税具有相同之处。而美元汇率走势受美联储降息以及加征关税等多方面因素的影响，个人认为面对目前1美元相当于6.9387人民币，并且美元兑换人民币汇率一路上涨的主要原因跟美方称将于9月1日对3000亿美元中国输美商品加征10%关税密切相关。因为美联储降息对于美元具有贬值的作用，因此，美元购买力下降后进口货物的价格相对上涨，从而美国的进口能力也会相对下降，而加征关税在某种程度上能够让美元继续处于较为坚挺的状态。

Indeed, based on historical trends, the recent upward trend in the dollar-to-dollar exchange rate has been similar to last year’s US tariff on China’s US-to-US merchandise. And the trend in the dollar’s exchange rate has been influenced by a number of factors, such as the US Federal Reserve’s reduction of interest rates and the surcharge of customs duties.

其次，当1美元相当于6.9387人民币时，意味着人民币相对应美元处于贬值的状态，而且100美元相当于693.87元人民币基本上接近于700元。而从某种程度上来说，美元兑换人民币汇率接近7.0是一个心理关口，同时也意味着两国流通货币兑换汇率又到敏感位置，因为低于7.0可以刺激出口，但影响人民币资产价值，从而可能引发外资离场，反之不利于出口贸易。

Second, when the dollar is equivalent to RMB 6.9387, it means that the renminbi is devalued relative to the dollar, and that the $100 is equivalent to RMB 693.87 is essentially close to 700 yuan. To some extent, the exchange rate of the dollar to the renminbi is close to 7.0, and it also means that the exchange rate of the two countries in circulation is more sensitive, because it stimulates exports but affects the value of the renminbi’s assets, which may trigger the exit of foreign capital, which is counterproductive to export trade.

当然，虽然美元兑换人民币汇率受加关税等多方面影响一路上涨，但这种上涨走势不会持续太久，因为背后制约性因素太多，其中包括以美元计价的美国商品相对他国货币价格上涨，从而不利于出口。然而，从另外一个角度来分析，美方加征关税从而促使美元走势依然较为坚挺并购买力也较强根本原因可能是进一步巩固美元在世界上的霸权地位，因为美元贬值后购买力下降，随之进口能力也下降。

Of course, while the dollar-to-dollar exchange rate has risen along many fronts, such as tariff escalation, it will not last long because of the many constraints that lie behind it, including the rise in dollar-denominated United States goods relative to the currencies of other countries, to the detriment of exports. From another perspective, however, an analysis of the tariff escalation by the United States, which has contributed to the continued strength of the dollar and its purchasing power, may be a fundamental reason for further entrenching the dollar’s hegemonistic position in the world, as the dollar’s purchasing power has declined, followed by a decline in import capacity.

总的来说，美元兑换人民币汇率一路上涨的原因受多方面影响，其中主要包括美联储降息以及美方对中国输美商品加征10%关税等，而这种上涨的走势不会持续太久，因为随着时间的推移，美联储降息的效果会逐渐体现出来，包括美元以及其他投资品种的真实价格均会恢复到正常水平。

Overall, the reasons for the rise in the dollar exchange rate to the renminbi have been influenced by a number of factors, including, inter alia, interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve and a 10 per cent tariff imposed by the United States on China's imports and exports, which will not last much longer, as the effect of interest cuts by the Federal Reserve will gradually become apparent over time, including a return to normal levels of real prices for the dollar and other types of investment.

2019年德国完成的名义GDP为34359.9亿欧元，剔除物价上涨因素后，与上年相比实际增长了0.6%。但按照2019年欧元与美元的平均汇率折算，德国的GDP为3.85万亿美元，比上年的3.95万亿美元，少了约1000亿美元。

Germany's nominal GDP in 2019 was Euro343.59 billion, and after removing the price increase factor, real growth was 0.6 per cent compared with the previous year, but based on the average exchange rate between the euro and the United States dollar in 2019, Germany's GDP was $3.85 trillion, about $100 billion less than the previous year's $3.95 trillion.

明明德国经济是正增长，但按照汇率折算成美元后，却出现了负增长。这原因就是在2019年美元强势，升值了不少，而包括欧元、人民币、英镑、印度卢比、俄罗斯卢布等多国货币却是贬值，使得一些经济增速较低的国家，他们的GDP换算成美元后，缩减了。

Germany’s economy has grown in a positive way, but it has grown in a negative way since the exchange rate was converted into the United States dollar. This is due to the strong United States dollar in 2019, which appreciated considerably, while multinational currencies, including the euro, the renminbi, the pound sterling, Indian rupees, and Russian rubles, devalued, causing some countries with lower rates of economic growth to see their GDP shrink in dollar terms.

美元被高估、人民币等被低估？

The US dollar is overestimated, the renminbi is undervalued, etc.?

这就是采用汇率计算、对比各国GDP时，不可避免的缺陷之一，即不能真实地体现各国经济实际增长情况。我们都知道，货币的本质就是商品，因此货币也具有商品的属性——供求关系，影响价格。

This is one of the inevitable flaws in the use of exchange rate calculations to compare countries' GDP, namely, the inability to truly reflect real economic growth. We all know that the nature of the currency is commodities, so that it also has the attributes of commodity — supply and demand — that affect prices.

举个例子，如果某个商品，比如猪肉。由于市场短缺，而居民对猪肉的消费需求不减。这导致的结果就是猪肉价格上升，如果这种供求关系继续失衡，那猪肉价格上涨的幅度会更高，使得猪肉与其他相比，其价格被高估了。

By way of example, if a commodity, such as pork, were to be used as a result of a shortage of markets, and the population’s demand for pork was not reduced. The result was an increase in the price of pork, which would be higher if the supply and demand relationship continued to be unbalanced, causing pork to be overestimated in comparison with others.

我们可以将这个例子中的猪肉换成美元。由于美元是当今世界的通用型货币，并且是国际贸易中使用最广，被接受度最高的货币。甚至一些国家在出口商品时，只接受以美元为定价、结算的依据，不愿意接收其他国家的货币。

We can exchange pork for dollars in this case. Since the dollar is the most common currency in the world today, and is the most widely used and accepted currency in international trade.

因此美元就变成了“抢手货”，在国际市场上经常是“供小于求”。甚至一些国家经常出现“美元荒”，不得不贱卖自己的商品、资源等换取美元。这就使得美元经常被高估，其他国家的货币经常被低估。

As a result, the dollar has become “hand-picked”, often “less than demand” in the international market. Even some countries often have “dollar waste” and have to sell their own goods, resources, etc. in exchange for dollars. This has resulted in the dollar being often overvalued and the currencies of other countries being undervalued.

对此，澳大利亚的西太平洋银行曾做了相关对比研究，认为美元正在被高估，人民币被低估了约15%——当时制作这个研究报告的时候，人民币与美元的汇率还是6.3元以下呢，现在已经是7元人民币左右兑换1美元。

In response, the Western Pacific Bank of Australia conducted a comparative study that concluded that the United States dollar was being overestimated and that the renminbi was being underestimated by about 15 per cent — at the time of the study, the exchange rate between the renminbi and the United States dollar was below 6.3 yuan, which was now around 7 yuan to the dollar.

如果按照“经济学人”的巨无霸指数，那美元被高估的更多，反之人民币就被低估的更多。南生认为，巨无霸在欧美属于普通食品，但在中国并不普及，不均有“通用性”。因此，更加倾向于使用IMF的“一篮子”商品作为对比中介。

If the dollar is overestimated by the “Economist” giant hegemonic index, then the renminbi is undervalued by more. Nansheng argues that the giant hegemon is common food in Europe and America, but is not popular in China and does not have “universality.” So, the IMF’s “one basket” commodity is preferred as a comparative broker.

按购买力，人民币与美元的比例呢？

What's the ratio of the renminbi to the dollar by purchasing power?

这个含义大致是这样的：将成千上万种商品，组成一个集合体——俗称“一篮子商品”，并根据各国的具体特点，给其中的部分商品加权或减权。比如中国居民的猪肉消费量很大，美国消费得少。

This means basically that tens of thousands of commodities will form a cluster — commonly known as a “basket of commodities” — and that some of these commodities will be weighted or reduced according to the specific characteristics of each country. For example, the consumption of pork by Chinese residents is high, and the US consumes less.

因此，对中国来说“一篮子商品”里要突出猪肉的地位，给其加权。对美国来说可能需要突出牛肉，减少猪肉的权重。然后将这“一篮子商品”放在中美两国，看各自需要多少钱购买，并得到两种货币之间的“兑换比例”。

For China, therefore, a “basket of goods” would have to focus on pork and give it weight. For the US, beef might need to be highlighted, reducing the weight of pork.

具体比例是多少呢？IMF（国际货币基金组织）并未给出确切数字，但我们可以反推。2019年，咱们中国完成的名义GDP约为990865亿元人民币，按照2019年人民币与美元的平均汇率（6.8985比1），折算约为14.36万亿美元（约为同期美国21.43万亿美元的67%），继续是全球第二大经济体。

What is the exact proportion? The International Monetary Fund (IMF) does not give exact figures, but we can reverse it. In 2019, China completed a nominal GDP of about RMB 9,988.65 billion, converted to about $14.36 trillion (about 67 per cent of the US$ 21.43 trillion over the same period), the second largest economy in the world, based on the 2019 average exchange rate between the renminbi and the United States dollar (6.8985 to 1).

IMF按照购买力估算的2019年中国GDP是27.31万亿美元，接近汇率法的2倍。我们简单计算：用990865亿元人民币除以27.31万亿美元，得出是：按购买力，1美元约等于3.628元人民币。两种算法，谁更合理呢？本文由【南生】整理并撰写，无授权请勿转载、抄袭！

The IMF estimates China's GDP in 2019 on the basis of purchasing power at US$ 27.31 trillion, nearly twice the rate of exchange law. A simple calculation: divided by RMB 9,988.65 billion by US$ 27.31 trillion, shows that US$ 1 equals RMB 3.628 by purchasing power.

10月9日，在岸人民币兑美元突破6.9关口，创2017年1月份以来的新低，人民币兑美元中间价调贬62个基点报6.9019，连续6日调贬，创2017年5月11日以来的新低。

On 9 October, on the shore, the renminbi broke the 6.9 threshold against the United States dollar, reaching a new low since January 2017, and the median value of the renminbi against the United States dollar was downgraded by 62 basis-point 6.9019 and six consecutive days, reaching a new low since 11 May 2017.

很多人关注人民币汇率会不会破“7”，事实上，人民币贬值是个趋势，趋势一旦形成，就不会轻易被改变。那么，有哪些因素导致人民币走出了贬值的通道呢？

Many are concerned that the renminbi exchange rate will not break the “7” and that, in fact, the renminbi’s devaluation is a trend that will not be easily changed once it is formed. What, then, has led the renminbi out of the path of devaluation?

1、10月7日，央行宣布降准1个百分点，随后两天，人民币汇率连续走低，而央行负责人认为本次降准弥补了银行体系流动性缺口，银根没有放松，市场利率是稳定的，不会形成贬值压力。但是实际上，根据“不可能三角”，既想降准释放流动性，又想汇率保持稳定，恐怕天底下没有那么好的事。什么是“不可能三角”？如下图，我们把资本自由流动、货币政策独立和固定汇率这三项分别置于三角形的三个角，一国政府最多只能实现两项，这个很好理解，我们看三角形的每条边就知道了，举个例子，要想保持资本自由流动和货币政策独立，就得牺牲固定汇率，变成浮动汇率，要想保持货币政策独立和固定汇率，就得牺牲资本自由流动，实行资本管制。

On 1 October and 7 October, the Central Bank announced a reduction of one percentage point, followed by a successive drop in the renminbi exchange rate for the following two days, and the central banker believed that the reduction had made up for the liquidity gap in the banking system, that the money was not relaxed, that market interest rates were stable, and that there would be no devaluation pressure. But, in fact, according to the “no triangle”, there was a desire to reduce liquidity and keep the exchange rate stable, and perhaps not so good. What is the “no triangle”?

2、国庆期间，美债收益率大幅上涨，新兴市场股汇双杀，金融市场是联动的，人民币难以独善其身，投资者对人民币汇率的信心下降，也会体现在走势上。为什么美债收益率会异动呢？原因是石油价格持续高涨，作为最重要的工业原料，产生了通货膨胀走高的预期，同时，市场也会预期央行担心油价上行引发连锁反应而加息，从而导致国债收益率走高。

2. During the National Day, there was a sharp rise in the rate of return on US debt, a double exchange rate on emerging markets, a combination of financial markets, a lack of independence for the renminbi, and a decline in investor confidence in the renminbi’s exchange rate. Why would the rate of return on US debt change? Because of the persistent rise in oil prices, which is the most important industrial raw material, expectations of higher inflation are created, and markets expect central banks to worry about a chain reaction to higher interest rates on oil prices, leading to higher rates of return on public debt.

3、中美关系恶化，贸易战升温。10月1日，美国和加拿大达成了新北美自由贸易协定框架的协议，在协议中加入了针对中国的“毒丸计划”，里面有这个一个条款，如果新协议中的任何一个国家与一个“非市场主导国家”签署贸易协定，另外两个国家可以反对，并在六个月内自由推出，明眼人一看就知道这是指向中国的。这里面牵涉到政治问题，我等普通老百姓还是不多加评论，两国关系的紧张会加剧人民币汇率的波动，因为政治、经济、金融是分不开的。面对不平等的加征关税手段，我国实体经济的企业当然希望人民币汇率降一降，以对冲贸易战的影响。

On October 1, the United States and Canada reached an agreement within the framework of the New North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which included a “Toxball Plan” for China, with a clause in which, if any of the countries in the new agreement signed trade agreements with a “non-market-led” country, the other two countries could oppose it and launch it freely within six months, it would be clear to everyone that it was to China. There were political issues involved, and ordinary people and others did not comment much. Tensions between the two countries would exacerbate the volatility of the exchange rate of the renminbi, because politics, economy, and finance were inseparable.

4、美联储激进的加息，对人民币汇率走势形成了较大压力。今年以来，美联储已经加息三次了，10月2日和3日，美联储主席连续两日表态，认为美国经济前景良好，宽松政策不再适合，未来将进一步加息直至超过中性利率，这种鹰派的表达加剧了对美联储进一步加息的预期，无疑是把刀子架在人民币上面，“我已经加了，并且还要加大力度加，你看着办”。对于美联储更激进加息的态度，特朗普也怒了，痛批美联储“你们疯了”。

4. The Fed’s aggressive interest hike has put greater pressure on the renminbi’s exchange rate. Since this year, the Fed has raised interest rates three times. On 2 and 3 October, the Fed President has expressed the view that the US economy is in good shape, that liberal policies are no longer appropriate, that further interest increases will continue to exceed neutral interest rates, and that the Eagle’s expression has increased expectations of further interest hikes on the Fed, undoubtedly by placing the knife on the renminbi, “I have added it, and you will do more.” The Federal Reserve’s more aggressive approach to raising interest rates has also been outraged by Trump and painfully “you are crazy” by the Fed.

总而言之，中美关系的恶化、中美贸易继续站上风口的浪尖、美联储货币政策的激进、国内货币政策的进退两难，导致人民币汇率的贬值形成趋势，技术上存在破“7”的可能。

In sum, the deterioration of relations between the United States and China, the continued surge in trade between the United States and the United States, the radical monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and the dilemma of domestic monetary policy have led to a trend towards the devaluation of the renminbi exchange rate, with the possibility of a “7” break in technology.

人民币是生活中不可缺少的一部分，就像美元在美国一样。现在人民币和美元的货币兑换率是1美元等于7.0709人民币，1人民币等于0.1414美元。

The renminbi is an indispensable part of life, just like the dollar in the United States. The currency exchange rate between the renminbi and the dollar is now 7.0709 yuan for US$1 and 0.1414 yuan for US$1.

可以看出美元的确值钱，美元的购买能力的确是比人民币强，在不考虑汇率的情况下，在美国10美元能买到的东西，的确是比在中国用10块钱买的多

It's true that the dollar is worth more than the renminbi, and it's true that ten dollars in the United States buys more than ten dollars in China, regardless of the exchange rate.

购买能力，中国比美国强

Purchasing power. China is better than the United States.

《美银美林》全球规模最大的金融机构之一，在2019年10月底讨论美元的估值问题，美元在世界是处在一个什么水平，研究表明目前，在当前的“十国集团”(主要是由西方发达国家组成)，美元在其中的成分是被高估的，其他国家的货币是被低估了。

One of the largest financial institutions in the world, Silver Merrill, discussed the valuation of the dollar at the end of October 2019, at what level the dollar was in the world. Research shows that, at present, the dollar is overestimated in the current “Group of Ten” (mainly composed of Western developed countries) and the currencies of other countries are undervalued.

在2019年7月7日发布的《2019外部风险报告》中，美元被高估6%到12%，认为欧元的估值对整体来说是比较正常的，而人民币的整体估值是被低估了。

In the External Risk Report 2019, issued on 7 July 2019, the United States dollar was overestimated by 6 to 12 per cent and the valuation of the euro was considered to be more normal for the whole, while the overall valuation of the renminbi was underestimated.

按照IMF(国际货币基金组织)的算法，在2018年中国GDP高达25.28万美元，如果是按照汇率来算的话是13.608万美元，按照IMF算是直接提升了85.77%，都是按照美元来算所以美国的GDP保持不变是20.494万美元。

According to the IMF (International Monetary Fund) algorithm, China's GDP in 2018 amounted to $25.28 million, or $1,360.8 million if calculated on the basis of the exchange rate, a direct increase of 85.77 per cent by the IMF, all in dollar terms, leaving US GDP constant at $2,049.4 million.

如果是按照汇率来算，中国的GDP只有美国的66.4%，但是把两国的购买力，来比较的话，中国其实是超越美国的，位居世界第一，而且还高出23.35%，那这样算人民币是不是被低估了?

If China's GDP is only 66.4 per cent of the United States in terms of exchange rates, but if it compares the purchasing power of both countries, is China actually above the United States, ranked first in the world and 23.35 per cent higher, is that an underestimation of the renminbi?

美元和人民币

United States dollars and yuan

现在当代美国人均工资在5000美元左右，如果按照购买力来比较的话，美元和人民币是差不多均衡的，也就说明4000美元一个月和中国5000人民币两者的生活水平是差不多的。但是按照汇率来计算的话，那就是相差十万八千里。

Today’s US per capita wages are around $5,000, and if the US dollar and the renminbi are almost evenly balanced by purchasing power, that means that the standard of living is similar for a month of US$ 4,000 and China’s RMB 5,000. But at the exchange rate, the difference is 100,000 miles.

按照经济学家和分析师的看法，当前的人民币应该是的确被低估了，IMF和汇率的算法就可以看出来两者差异太大了，并非就是人民币被低估的程度，还有就是中美两国GDP的算法并非完全一样。

According to economists and analysts, the current renminbi is indeed underestimated, and the IMF and exchange rate algorithms show that the difference between the two is too large, either to the extent that the renminbi is underestimated, or to the extent that the GDP of the two countries is not exactly the same.

不仅中国，其他国家也被“贬值”了?

Not only China, but other countries have also been “depreciated”?

在2019年德国GDP在34359.9亿欧元，同比上涨0.6%。但是按照2019年欧元和美元平均汇率来算，德国的GDP在3.85万亿美元，同比2018经济居然少了1000亿美元

In 2019, Germany's GDP was Euro343.59 billion, an increase of 0.6 per cent over the same period, but based on the average exchange rate of the euro and the United States dollar in 2019, Germany's GDP was $3.85 trillion, $100 billion less than the 2018 economy.

这样看是不是很矛盾?明明经济是在增长，但是按照汇率换算成美元，还少了1000亿。原因就是在2019年美元的强势，是升值了不少，使得有一些经济增速比较低的国家货币贬值其中就包括，欧元，人民币，英镑，印度卢比，俄罗斯卢比都是被贬值。

Isn't that a contradiction? The economy is growing, but it is converted into a US dollar at the exchange rate, with $100 billion missing. The reason is that the strength of the dollar in 2019, which appreciated considerably, led some countries with lower rates of economic growth to depreciate their currencies, including the euro, the renminbi, the pound sterling, the Indian rupees, and the Russian rupees.

大家知道，货币的本质是商品，货币也有商品的属性“供需关系，影响价格”，如果一件商品市场短缺，但是群众需求量特别高，无非就是涨价，如果这种供求关系继续失衡，那么上涨的价格会越来越高，使得这件商品和其他商品相比，是被高估的。

It is known that the nature of the currency is commodities and that it also has a “supply-demand relationship” that affects prices. If a commodity market is short, but popular demand is particularly high, it is price hikes, and if the supply-demand relationship continues to be unbalanced, the price rise will become ever higher, overestimated in comparison with other commodities.

因为现在美元是世界通用货币，而且接受度最高，有的国家在进出口自己商品的时候，只接受美元的定价来结算，因为美元值钱啊，不愿意接受其他国家的货币计算，因为美元比其他国家货币值钱。

Because the United States dollar is now the universal currency of the world and has the highest acceptance, some countries, when importing or exporting their own commodities, accept only the dollar as a price to settle, because the dollar is worth money and is reluctant to accept the calculation of the currencies of other countries because the dollar is worth more than the currencies of other countries.

在2019年中国GDP在990865亿人民币，按照汇率来算的话是14.36万亿美元，同期美国是21.43万亿，中国继续是全球第二大经济体。

In 2019, China's GDP was RMB 9,988.65 billion, with an exchange rate of $14.36 trillion, while the United States was 21.43 trillion in the same period, and China continued to be the second largest economy in the world.

但是按照IMF计算的话中国GDP应该在27.31万亿美元。如果这样来计算的话，得到的结论是1美元约等于3.628元人民币。

But China’s GDP should be 27.31 trillion US dollars in IMF calculations. If so, the conclusion is that US$ 1 is about US$ 3.628.

你觉得人民币有没有被低估?美元真的这么值钱吗?

Do you think the renminbi is undervalued? Is the dollar really that valuable?

1.荷兰合作银行发表了对欧元兑美元汇率的预期，三个月目标下看1.09，但九个月内有望涨至1.11，利空美国经济增长的因素也将冲击全球经济，2020年美元的任何走软料温和，因除美联储以外的其他主要央行将进一步实施刺激货币政策，澳洲联储可能不排除首次实施量化宽松政策;过去两年市场低估了美元兑欧元的强度，自此以来市场上已出现的转变为，市场不再做空美元，意味着美元可能对任何利空消息更加敏感。

1. The Dutch Cooperative Bank has published expectations of the exchange rate of the euro against the United States dollar, looking at 1.09 under the three-month target, but it is expected to rise to 1.11 in nine months, and the economic growth of the United States will also impact on the global economy. Any softening of the United States dollar in 2020 may not preclude the introduction of quantitative easing for the first time, as major central banks other than the United States Federal Reserve will further stimulate monetary policy; the market has underestimated the strength of the United States dollar against the euro over the past two years, the transformation that has taken place in the market since then, and the fact that the United States dollar is no longer empty means that the dollar may be more sensitive to any easy news.

2.法国巴黎银行表示，预计美联储将在2020年上半年两次下调官方利率，以应对经济放缓、通胀温和和高度不确定性，应该会支持中期增长前景，这就是为什么在最初的下跌之后，仍预计美国国债收益率会逐渐上升;欧元区方面，欧洲央行依赖国家的前瞻性指引和缓慢的通胀进程意味著，非常宽松的环境将在很长一段时间内保持不变，债券收益率的变动将在很大程度上受到美国国债收益率变化的影响，尽管预计德国国债收益率的增幅会小一些，欧元区主权债券息差将下降，预计日本央行将不会进一步放松货币政策，欧元兑美元汇率不会有什么变化，虽然欧元的公允价值远远高于当前的定价。

2. According to BNP Paribas, the Fed is expected to lower official interest rates twice in the first half of 2020 in response to a slowdown in the economy, moderate inflation and high uncertainty, and should support medium-term growth prospects. That is why, after the initial fall, a gradual increase in the rate of return on United States national debt was expected; on the eurozone side, the ECB's reliance on country-oriented forward guidance and slow inflation process meant that the very relaxed environment would remain unchanged over a long period of time, and that changes in bond yields would be largely influenced by changes in the rate of return on United States public debt, although a smaller increase in the rate of return on German public debt was expected, the euro sovereign bond spread would fall, the Central Bank of Japan was not expected to ease monetary policy further, and there would be no change in the euro's exchange rate against the United States dollar, although the euro's fair value was far higher than current prices.

3.加拿大帝国商业银行预计未来几个月季度美元指数将进一步走低，2020年一季度目标下看95.5，三季度目标为93.4，过去一年美元已成功上涨，虽然2019年美联储三度降息，且美国经常帐表现糟糕，在2020年四季度可能录得较疲软经济增长步伐后，利率敏感需求的提升料推动美国经济在2020年初回升，可能令美联储暂停降息，这本该利好美元，不过未来一年全球市场不确定性将逐步消退，从而令部分安全资本逃离美元，冒险情绪的升温将推动欧元和英镑反弹，而欧元区和日本表现良好的经常帐也将支撑本币兑美元表现。

3. The British dollar index of the Imperial Commercial Bank of Canada is expected to fall further in the next few months, with a target of 95.5 for the first quarter of 2020 and a target of 93.4 for the third quarter. The dollar has risen successfully over the past year, despite the three-degree interest rate reduction of the Federal Reserve in 2019 and the poor performance of the United States regular accounts. After the possibly weaker pace of economic growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020, the rise in interest rate-sensitive demand has driven the United States economy back early in 2020 and may have caused the Fed to suspend interest rates, which could have been good, but global market uncertainties will gradually fade in the coming year, leading to the flight of part of the security capital from the United States dollar.

4.花旗：美国经济温和扩展，股市表现可期。针对美国市场，花旗在2020展望报告中认为，美国经济温和扩展，股市表现可期;经济或保持温和扩张，通胀小幅低于目标水平;具体来看，2020年美国就业增速会放缓，但无需过度担忧;消费者支出在2019年初略显疲软之后，消费者支出呈现强劲增长势头，花旗预计在2020年仍将持续;在制造业方面，花旗预计，2020年突发事件对制造业影响或降低，制造业不会大幅衰退，但明显走强的可能性同样较低，预计明年美国制造业或温和复苏。

4. Citigroups: moderate economic expansion in the United States and good stock market performance. In the context of the United States market, the Citigroup report for 2020 concluded that the United States economy was moderate expansion and stock market performance was sustainable; the economy was either moderate expansion, with inflation slightly below the target level; specifically, employment growth in the United States would slow in 2020, but without undue concern; consumer spending was strong after a slight weakness in early 2019, and the flag was expected to continue in 2020; in the manufacturing sector, Citigroups predicted that the events of 2020 would have an impact on or decrease in manufacturing, that manufacturing would not decline significantly, but that the likelihood of strong movement would be equally low, and that there would be a strong growth in manufacturing or a moderate recovery in the United States next year.

5.美元指数在周二圣诞节假期前最后交易日提前陷入横盘窄幅震荡行情，过去一周，美元指数虽然相比此前美联储决议和英国大选后录得的低点有所反弹，但市场谨慎情绪仍主导市场，而业内机构认为，在进入2020年后，各方面消息面事件仍将拖累美元走软。最大的不确定性在于美国将进入大选年，通常在大选来临之前，美国本国政治方面出现的不确定性，会遏制全球投资者对于美元计价资产的偏好。并且，美联储也会在大选年尽可能地采取稳健偏宽松的政策，来为美国金融市场和宏观经济保驾护航，这意味着美元指数明年上行空间将有限。加拿大帝国商业银行(CIBC)指出，在上述压力下，美元指数在2020年一季度末将跌至95.5，在三季度末大选投票日来临之前将跌至93.4，。与此对应的则是今年大多数时间面临抛压的英镑与欧元将有望录得可观的反弹幅度。

5. The United States dollar index, which predates its final trading day on Tuesday's Christmas holiday, has fallen precipitously into a concussion over dollar-denominated assets. Over the past week, the United States dollar index has rebounded as much as possible from the lows recorded after the US Federal Reserve resolution and the United Kingdom elections, but market prudential attitudes have dominated the market, and industry agencies believe that, after 2020, the United States dollar will remain weak. The biggest uncertainty is that the United States dollar index will enter the year of the general election, usually before the elections, and will contain the preference of global investors for dollar-denominated assets.

6.周三(12月25日)，加拿大外汇银行指出，澳元兑美元若突破0.6920-0.6930区间的阻力，有望升向0.6940，甚至0.7070-0.7080区间。德国商业银行指出，汇价在12月10日低点0.6800存在支撑。展望2020年，澳元可能因全球经济前景好转，美国大选打压美元等因素提振，但也可能面临风险，比如澳洲联储降息以及全球经济持续恶化。

6. Wednesday (25 December), the Canadian Foreign Exchange Bank indicated that the Australian dollar could rise to 0.6940, or even 0.770-0.7080, against the United States dollar, if it were to break through the resistance between 0.6920-0.6930. German commercial banks pointed out that the exchange rate was supported by a low of 0.6800 on 10 December. Looking forward to 2020, the Australian dollar could be boosted by improved global economic prospects, pressure on the dollar in the United States, but it could also be exposed to risks, such as interest reductions by the Australian Federal Reserve and the continued deterioration of the global economy.

7.星展银行认为，明年G3(指美、日及欧)国家央行将暂停进一步降息，但仍会维持宽松货币政策，主因国债收益率曲线过度平坦，且利率已处于极低的水准。而部分地区货币政策走向的分歧将持续支撑美元指数。至于日元会有避险相关需求支撑，需要宽松货币政策才会使日元表现较为弱势。

7. According to Starfleet Bank, the G3 (American, Japanese, and European) central bank will suspend further interest cuts next year, but it will maintain loose monetary policy, mainly because of the excessive flatness of the yield curve of the bonds and the extremely low interest rates. The divergences in monetary policy direction in some parts of the country will continue to support the dollar’s index.

8.新华网：2019年即将落幕，受美国贸易政策不确定性影响，美国经济虽维持扩张但增长放缓。企业投资下滑、制造业萎缩，美国经济复苏势头受到打压，2020年将经历更多考验。摩根大通首席执行官、“商业圆桌会议”主席杰米·戴蒙认为，美国加征关税对企业和消费者心理和信心产生负面影响。展望来年，在就业和消费支撑下，美国经济有望持续扩张，但增速或较今年小幅放缓，增长潜力仍然存疑。美国全国商业经济协会预计，明年美国经济增速或放缓至1.8%。

Xinhua Net: The end of 2019, influenced by uncertainty in United States trade policy, the United States economy maintained its expansion but its growth slowed. Business investment fell, manufacturing shrunk, and the recovery momentum in the United States was under pressure, and will be more tested in 2020. Jamie Damon, Chief Executive Officer of Morgan Chase and Chairman of the Business Roundtable, argued that US tariff escalation has had a negative impact on business and consumer psychology and confidence. Looking ahead, the United States economy is expected to continue to expand in the coming year, supported by employment and consumption, but its growth potential remains doubtful, either at a slower rate or at a slower rate than this year. The National Business Economic Association of the United States expects the US economy to expand or slow to 1.8 per cent next year.

【美元汇率报价】

United States dollar exchange rate quote

1.美元汇率最新报价

1. Latest offer for United States dollar exchange rate

截止发稿，美元指数现报97.6401，跌幅0%。今日1美元等于0.9016欧元，1美元等于0.7702英镑，1美元等于109.560日元，1美元等于0.9814瑞郎，1美元等于1.3153加元，1美元等于1.5042纽元，1美元等于7.7881港元，1美元等于1.3548新元，1美元等于在岸人民币6.9952元，1美元等于离岸人民币6.9936元，1美元等于1160.5400韩元。

As of the date of the release, the dollar index is now reported at 97.6401, a drop of 0 per cent. Today, the dollar is equal to 0.9016 euros, the dollar is equal to 0.7702 pounds sterling, the dollar is equal to 109.560 yen, the dollar is equal to 0.9814 Swiss francs, the dollar is equivalent to $1.3153, the dollar is equal to $1,5042, the dollar is equal to 7.7881 Hong Kong dollars, the dollar is equal to 1.3548 dollars and the dollar is equal to $6.9952 in the bank and the dollar is equal to $6.9936 in the offshore renminbi and the dollar is equal to 1160.5,400 won.

2.农业银行外汇牌价

Foreign exchange rate of agricultural banks

【美元汇率走势】

Performance of the United States dollar exchange rate

美元指数日线图

U.S. dollar index sunline map

美元指数：日线图上，周三（25日）美元指数继续小幅回调收阴线，昨日盘中最高点97.7361，最低点97.5438，收报97.6428，日内跌幅0.04%。K线走势看，近2个交易日美元指数未能突破97.8490一线压力转而持续回调，短期美元指数继续回调考验97.4717一线支撑的概率较大。近7个交易日走势中，市场多头仍处于主导，短期美元指数预计仍有上行空间。中期看，市场空头处于主导，盘面延续震荡下行趋势的概率较大。长期看，美元指数延续上升楔形整理结构走势，目前走势仍处于反抽过程，上方仍有较大空间。MACD黄白线在0轴下方形成金叉缩量，红柱收缩。综合来看，短期美元指数或将继续回调考验97.4717一线支撑，后市预计仍有上行空间。若美元指数跌破下方支撑，后市继续关注97.2042一线支撑；若不能突破，盘面走势短期大概率反弹挑战97.8204一线压力。

The United States dollar index: On the solar map, the dollar index continues to bounce back slightly on Wednesday (25 days). In the last seven trading days, the market is still dominated, and the dollar index is expected to move up. In the medium term, the market is dominated by a continuous downward trend of 97.6428, with a 0.04 per cent fall in the day. Kline trends indicate that the dollar index has not been able to break through the 97.8490 line of pressure, and the short-term dollar index continues to roll back the 97.4717 line, with the probability that the short-term dollar index will either continue to test the 97.4717 line of support. In the long term, the dollar index continues to rise in its structure and is still in a reverse process, with a larger amount of space remaining on top.

英镑兑美元日线图

Pound to United States dollar

英镑兑美元：日线图上，周三（25日）英镑兑美元继续小幅反弹收阳线，昨日盘中最高点1.2982，最低点1.2917，收报1.2961，日内涨幅0.13%。K线走势看，近2个交易日英镑兑美元未能跌破1.2866一线支撑转而持续反弹，短期镑美有望继续反弹挑战1.3013一线压力。近9个交易日走势中，市场空头占据主导，短期英镑兑美元预计仍有回调空间。中期看，市场多头占据主导，盘面延续上行趋势的概率较大。长期看，盘面延续扩散三角整理结构走势，目前走势处于回调过程，下方空间充足。MACD黄白线在0轴上方形成死叉缩量，绿柱收缩。综合来看，短期英镑兑美元或将继续上行挑战1.3013一线压力，但后市预计仍有回调空间。若镑美突破上方压力，后市继续关注1.3185一线压力；若不能突破，盘面走势短期大概率回调考验1.2905一线支撑。

Pounds sterling to the United States dollar: On the solar map, on Wednesday (25th day) Pounds continue to rebound slightly against the United States dollar, with short-term Pounds still expected to rewind space for nearly nine trading days. In the medium term, the market is dominated by more than one head in the medium term, with a higher probability of continued upturning. In the longer term, the market is still expected to rewind if the plate continues to spread, and is now rewinding in sufficient space. The MACD yellow and white line is regressed on a zero axis and the green line shrinks. The short-term pound to the dollar is expected to continue to rise to 1.313 lines of pressure, but the market is still expected to rewind.

美元兑在岸人民币日线图

U.S. dollar-to-shore RMB Japanese-line map

美元兑人民币：日线图上，周三（25日）美元兑在岸人民币如期继续回调收阴线，昨日盘中最高点7.0073，最低点6.9822，收报6.9894，日内跌幅0.25%。K线走势看，近2个交易日美元兑在岸人民币持续回调回吐12月18日以来全部涨幅，目前市场空头力量相对强势，短期盘面延续回调走势的概率较大。近9个交易日走势中，市场多头力量稍占优势，后市或仍有反弹空间。中期看，市场空头占据主导，盘面延续震荡下行趋势的概率较大。MACD黄白线在0轴下方形成死叉，红柱转绿。综合来看，短期美元兑在岸人民币继续回调考验6.9661一线支撑的概率较大，后市或仍存反弹空间。若美元兑在岸人民币跌破下方支撑，后市继续关注6.9610一线支撑；若不能突破，盘面走势短期大概率反弹挑战7.0158一线压力。

The United States dollar against the renminbi: On the Sunline map, the dollar continues to recover as scheduled on Wednesday (25th). During the last nine trading days, the market was slightly dominated by multiple forces, with subsequent markets or still space for rebounds. In the medium term, the market was dominated by an empty head, with a high probability of continuing the downward trend of tremors. The MACD yellow white line, which is a dead fork below axis 0, turned red and green. Overall, the short-term dollar continues to rewind to test the short-term rebound of the currency against the 6.9661 line, and the market continues to have more than a rebound space.

北京时间11:05，美元兑在岸人民币报6.9958，反汇率报价0.1429。

At 1105 Beijing time, the United States dollar was reported at 6.9958 RMB and the counter-exchange-rate offer at 0.1429.

【以上观点仅供参考，不构成投资建议。】

[The above observations are for information purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation. ]

来源: 中亿财经网

Source: Medium Billion Finance Network

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1、道明预计未来一年不会有十国集团央行加息;道明策略师表示，没有一家十国集团央行未来一年可能会加息，这是至少十年来首次。Richard Kelly、James Rossiter、Priya Misra和Mark McCormick等策略师撰写报告称，“不幸的是，2020还没有显示出从结构性不确定带来的打压和冲击中复苏的迹象”贸易方面的降温只会为美国大选前的政治不确定性升温奠定基础，消除贸易不确定性将使美国GDP增加0.5个百分点，且10国集团通胀率最多增加0.1-0.3个百分点;都不足以推动任何主要央行在2020年加息，“最终将有足够的增长动力来帮助昂贵的美元估值导致投资者被吸引到其他地方，唯一的问题是，要进入到2020年哪个时点才会实现可持续增长”，道明建议做多澳元兑加元和纽元;预计美联储将在2020年实施两次降息。

1 Domin expects no G-10 central bank hikes in the coming year; Domino strategists say that no G-10 central bank may raise interest rates in the coming year, for the first time in at least a decade. Richard Kelly, James Rossiter, Priya Misra, and Mark McCormick, strategists have reported that “unfortunately, 2020 has not shown signs of recovery from the pressures and shocks of structural uncertainty.” The decline in trade will only lay the foundation for a pre-election rise in political uncertainty in the United States, and that the elimination of trade uncertainty will result in a 0.5 percentage point increase in US GDP and a maximum increase in G-10 inflation rate of 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points; it will not be sufficient to push any major central bank to raise interest in 2020, “endow enough momentum to help expensive dollar valuations attract investors elsewhere, the only question is which point of entry into 2020 will lead to sustainable growth”, and dots suggest a multi-Ausa dollar dollar and a New dollar reduction; and the US Federal Reserve is expected to implement two interest reductions in 2020.

2、机构：美元明年将承压?美元指数自上周以来连续下跌，多重因素导致美元指数在2020年恐难以继续走强。分析师称，明年美元指数全年在95-98区间波动，并且更可能偏向弱方。主要原因包括国际贸易局势前景不确定、全球增长探底、美联储降息预期仍存等;

2 - Institutions: The dollar will be under pressure next year? The dollar index has been declining continuously since last week, and multiple factors have made it difficult for the dollar index to continue to strengthen in 2020. Analysts say that the dollar index will fluctuate throughout the year from 95 to 98 and will be more likely to favour the weaker side.

房利美(Fannie Mae)周一将其对2020年美国经济增长的预期从1.7%上调至1.9%，称如果国际贸易传来好消息，消费者支出和楼市将提振美国GDP。但房利美同时表示，国际贸易局势对美国经济增长来说是一个风险且短时间内不太可能会完全消除;

On Monday, Fannie Mae raised his expectations for US economic growth in 2020 from 1.7% to 1.9%, saying that if good news comes from international trade, consumer spending and housing markets will boost US GDP. But, at the same time, the US says that the international trade situation is a risk to US economic growth and is unlikely to be completely eliminated in a short period of time.

房利美称，国际贸易局势对美国经济增长来说是一个风险。尽管预计贸易紧张局势会在短期内得到缓解，但不太可能会完全消除。房利美(Fannie Mae)首席经济学家道格·邓肯(Doug Duncan)表示，尽管全球不确定性上升，但我们仍预计美国国内经济将实现稳健的增长。

Although trade tensions are expected to ease in the short term, they are unlikely to be completely eliminated. Fannie Mae’s chief economist, Doug Duncan, says that, despite rising global uncertainty, we expect a robust growth in the US economy.

3、在岸人民币跌至半个月新低，因市场情绪继续偏向谨慎;

3. The onshore renminbi fell to a new low of half a month and continued to be cautious owing to market sentiment;

① 在岸人民币周二缩量收跌近120点至半个月新低，盘中一度逼近7.03元关口，中间价则略升7点至近一周高点。交易员表示，汇价基本跟随市场基本面消息起伏，昨夜美国总统特朗普的消极表态，多少影响了市场情绪，好在市场基本适应了这种扰动，在消息面取得实质性进展前，人民币大概率维持在7-7.05元区间波动。

1 On Tuesday, the Chinese renminbi contract fell by nearly 120 to half a month, with the median price rising slightly from 7 to almost a week high. The traders said that the exchange rate followed market fundamentals, and that the negative statements of US President Trump last night had somewhat influenced market sentiment, so that the market had largely adapted to such disturbances, and that the renminbi rate was likely to remain volatile between $7 and 7.05 until substantial progress had been made in the news.

② 交易员并称，近来中国央行继续大额净投放，银行间流动性充裕，境内美元兑人民币短端掉期持续下滑，长端掉期盘中亦下破400点关口，创逾一周新低。而眼下，人民币汇价基本跟随消息面波动，暂无明确的方向性。目前市场可能没有之前那么乐观，但还谈不上悲观。

The traders also claim that the Central Bank of China has recently continued to make large net investments, with sufficient interbank liquidity, a continuous decline in the short-end swap between the United States dollar and the renminbi in China, and a more than 400-point break in the long-term cut-off, which has reached a new low of over a week. At this point, the renminbi’s exchange rate has largely fluctuated with the news, with no clear direction.

③ 此外，日内评级机构表示，国际贸易领域和地缘局势的诸多风险，仍会影响2020年的全球经济增长预期。这可能令避险资金加速回流至美元计价资产，而新兴市场货币则会因此面临更多压力;

In addition, rating agencies within the day indicate that many of the risks in the area of international trade and the geo-situation situation will still affect global economic growth expectations for 2020. This could accelerate the return of hedge funds to dollar-denominated assets, which would put emerging market currencies under additional pressure;

④ 而全球汇市方面，美元兑一篮子货币周二企稳，中止此前连续三日跌势，投资人等待美联储此后10月底会议记要，当时美联储宣布降息。隔夜，在美国总统特朗普扬言美元汇价仍然过高之后，美元指数一度跌至近两周低位。

On the other hand, on the global exchange market, the dollar against a basket of currencies was stable on Tuesday, ending three consecutive days of decline, and investors waited for the Fed’s report at the end of October, when the Fed announced a reduction in interest rates. On the other day, after US President Trump’s argument that the dollar was still too high, the dollar index fell to almost two weeks of low value.

4、周二(11月19日)美国总统特朗普表示，他在周一与美联储主席鲍威尔会面时告诉鲍威尔，美联储设定的利率相对于其他国家来说太高了。这意外着特朗普希望美联储继续加大降息力度，对美元构成利空。周二美联储威廉姆斯称，通胀保持在低位且处于稳定状态，失业率处于低位，美联储的政策目前是宽松的，通胀可能导致美联储政策更加宽松。

On Tuesday, 19 November, US President Trump stated that he had told Powell, during his meeting with US Federal Reserve President Powell on Monday, that the US Federal Reserve had set interest rates that were too high compared to other countries. By surprise, Trump wanted the US Federal Reserve to continue to reduce interest rates more sharply, which would be a loss on the dollar.

【美元汇率报价】

United States dollar exchange rate quote

1.美元汇率最新报价

1. Latest offer for United States dollar exchange rate

截止发稿，美元指数现报97.8942，涨幅0.05%。今日1美元等于1.1073欧元，1美元等于0.7745英镑，1美元等于108.510日元，1美元等于1.4667澳元，1美元等于0.9905瑞郎，1美元等于1.3278加元，1美元等于1.5578纽元，1美元等于7.8278港元，1美元等于1.3616新元，1美元等于在岸人民币7.0318元，1美元等于离岸人民币7.0339元，1美元等于1170.1500韩元。

As of the date of the release, the United States dollar index is now reported at 97.8942, an increase of 0.05 per cent. Today US$ 1 is equal to Euro1.1073, US$ 1 is equal to Pound0.7745, US$ 1 is equal to JPY 108.510, US$ 1 is equal to $A 1.4667, US$ 1 is equal to CHF 0.9905, US$ 1 is equal to $US 1.3278, US$ 1 is equal to HK$1.8578, US$ 1 is equal to NZ$ 1.3616 and US$ 1 is equal to RMB 7.0318, US$ 1 is equal to RMB 7.0339 and US$ 1 is equal to RMB 1170.1500.

2.建设银行外汇牌价

2. Foreign exchange rate of construction banks

【美元汇率走势】

Performance of the United States dollar exchange rate

欧元兑美元日线图

Chart of the euro to the United States dollar

欧元兑美元：日线图上，周二（19日）欧元兑美元继续小幅反弹收一根弱实体阳线，昨日盘中最高点1.1084，最低点1.1063，收报1.1078，日内涨幅0.05%。K线走势看，近4个交易日盘中收四连阳，目前市场多头占据主导，但上行动力有所减弱，短期欧美继续反弹的空间预计不大，上方关注1.1109一线压力。近12个交易日中，市场空头占据主导，短期盘面整体延续回调的概率较大。中期看，市场多头占据主导，盘面延续反弹行情的概率较大。长期看。欧元兑美元仍处于下行楔形整理结构走势当中，目前应仍处于回调过程，下方存有较大空间。MACD黄白线在0轴附近形成死叉缩量，绿柱收缩。综合来看，短期欧元兑美元继续反弹挑战1.1109一线压力的概率较大，后市预计仍有回调空间。大趋势上，盘面大概率延续下行主趋势。若欧美突破上方压力，后市继续关注1.1164一线压力；若不能突破，盘面走势短期大概率回调考验1.1027一线支撑。

The euro against the United States dollar: on the solar map, the euro continues to rebound to the United States dollar on a small scale on Tuesday (19th). During the last 12 trading days, the market was dominated by a blank, with a high probability of a short-term rollback. At a medium-term point, the market dominated, with a high probability of a negative roll-back.

美元兑日元日线图

Chart of the dollar to the Japanese yen line

美元兑日元：日线图上，周二（19日）美元兑日元延续回调走势收阴线，昨日盘中最高点108.840，最低点108.450，收报108.540，日内跌幅0.13%。K线走势看，近8个交易日中，市场空头占据主导，短期美元兑日元继续回调的概率较大，下方关注108.240一线支撑。中期看，市场多头占据主导，盘面大概率延续上行趋势。长期看，美元兑日元仍未能摆脱格局，震荡区间呈收窄的趋势，市场缺乏明确方向性选择。MACD黄白线在0轴上方形成死叉放量，绿柱扩张。综合来看，短期美元兑日元继续回调考验108.240一线支撑的概率较大，后市预计仍有反弹空间。长期看，盘面延续震荡格局的概率较大。若美日跌破下方支撑，后市继续关注107.890一线支撑；若不能突破，盘面走势短期大概率挑战109.070一线压力。

The US dollar against the Japanese yen: On the Japanese line, on Tuesday (19th) the US dollar continued its downward trend, with the upper limit of 108.840, the lowest of 108.450 yesterday, with a decline of 0.13 per cent in the market. The Kline appears to be moving, with the short-term US$ against the Japanese yen dominated over nearly eight trading days, with the probability that the short-term US dollar will continue to revert to the upper limit of 108.240 line. In the medium term, the market is dominated, with the likely upward trend. In the long run, the US dollar has not been able to break out of pattern, there is a narrow trend in the swing zone, and the market lacks a clear orientation choice. The MACD yellow and white line has a dead fork above the 0-axis, and the green column expands. In aggregate, the short-term dollar against the Japanese dollar continues to turn back to test the 108.244 line, and the post-market is expected to continue the upward trend.

美元兑在岸人民币日线图

U.S. dollar-to-shore RMB Japanese-line map

美元兑人民币：日线图上，周二（19日）美元兑在岸人民币收一根阳十字星，昨日盘中最高点7.0319，最低点7.0190，收报7.0276，日内涨幅0.03%。单根K线形态看，目前市场多空分歧加大，后市走势可能反转。K线走势看，近8个交易日中，市场多头占据主导，短期盘面延续反弹趋势的概率较大，上方关注7.0725一线压力。中期看，市场空头占据主导，盘面延续回调趋势的概率较大。MACD黄白线在0轴下方形成金叉放量，红柱扩张。综合来看，短期美元兑在岸人民币或将继续反弹挑战7.0725一线概率，但不排除短线回调的可能；中期盘面大概率延续回调行情。若美元兑在岸人民币突破上方压力，后市继续关注7.1069一线压力；若不能突破，盘面走势短期大概率回调考验7关口支撑。

The United States dollar against the renminbi: on the Japanese line, the dollar is on the bank’s renminbi on Tuesday (19th) to a sun-cow star, with the upper end of last day’s plate at 7.0319, and the lowest at 7.0190, with an increase of 0.03 per cent over the day. The single-K line pattern suggests that the market’s current gap is widening and the market’s movement is likely to reverse. The K-line trend, which appears to be dominated over nearly eight trading days, has a high probability of a short-term counter-reaction trend, with a high probability of a 7.0725 line of pressure. In the medium term, the market’s head is dominated, with a high probability of a roll-back trend. The MACD’s yellow white line, under a zero axis, continues to be a gold fork and a red column expansion. Overall, the short-term dollar against the People’s Currency or will continue to challenge the 7.0725 line, but does not rule out the possibility of short-term rewinding; the medium-term swing is likely to continue.

北京时间11:54，美元兑在岸人民币汇率报价7.0303，反汇率报价0.1422，即今日1美元兑换在岸人民币7.0303元，100美元兑换人民币703.03元，人民币100元兑换14.22美元。

At 11:54 Beijing time, the United States dollar was quoted at 7.0303 and the counter-exchange rate at 0.142, i.e., today the United States dollar is exchanged at 7.03033 and 100 for 703.03 and 14.22.

【以上观点仅供参考，不构成投资建议。】

[The above observations are for information purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation. ]

来源: 中亿财经网

Source: Medium Billion Finance Network