？流行的对冲基金基差交易推动比特币期货空头创纪录

杠杆基金对比特币期货的净空头兴趣创历史新高，但不要误认为这是对冲基金压倒性的看跌情绪。这更有可能是由于越来越流行的市场中性策略。

The net-empty interest in the leverage fund’s relative currency futures is at an all-time high, but it should not be mistaken for the overwhelming downswing of hedge funds. This is more likely because of the increasingly popular market-neutral strategy.

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据专家称，所谓的基差交易(basis trade)是一种寻求从现货市场和期货市场的差价中获利的策略，可能是芝加哥商品交易所（CME）近18000份比特币期货合约的大部分空头。

According to experts, the so-called base trade (basis trade) is a strategy that seeks to profit from the difference between the spot and futures markets, and may be the bulk of the nearly 18,000 Bitcoin futures contracts of the Chicago Commodity Exchange (CME).

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大宗经纪商FalconX的市场主管拉维·多西(Ravi Doshi)表示:“从对冲基金对CME比特币期货的做空兴趣可以看出，基差交易非常受欢迎。目前有超过75亿美元的净空头期货。2021年，当比特币的基准比现在高得多时，空头头寸的峰值仅为20亿美元。”

The market manager for the big broker FalconX, Ravi Doshi, said: “According to the empty interest of hedge funds in CME bitcoin futures, the base trade is very popular. There are now more than $7.5 billion worth of net head futures. In 2021, when Bitcoin's benchmark was much higher than it is today, the peak was just $2 billion.”

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自今年1月推出现货比特币交易所交易基金(ETF)以来，基差交易在加密货币领域变得更加流行，交易员可以买入ETF，并以更高的价格卖出代表比特币的期货，并从价差中获利。ETF使这种交易更容易进行，因为这对货币可以通过受监管的经纪商进行交易，从而简化了加密货币市场中所谓的“现金和套利”策略的启动。

Since the introduction of the Bitcoin Exchange Trading Fund (ETF) in January of this year, base-line transactions have become more popular in the area of cryptographic currency, where traders can buy ETFs and sell futures representing Bitcoin at higher prices and profit from price differentials. ETFs make such transactions easier, as money can be traded through regulated brokers, thus simplifying the start-up of so-called “cash and arbitrage” strategies in the crypto-currency market.

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在比特币期货做空兴趣上升的同时，对现货比特币ETF的需求也出现了反弹。根据彭博社汇编的数据，现货比特币ETF目前总共持有超过610亿美元的资产。然而，K33 Research高级分析师维特尔·伦德(Vetle Lunde)表示，尽管基差交易目前是一种流行的策略，但它不应被误认为是资金流入ETF的主要推动力。

The demand for spot bitcoin ETFs has rebounded at the same time that interest in bitcoin futures has risen. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, spot currency ETF now holds assets totalling more than $61 billion. However, K33 Research Senior Analyst Vetle Lunde states that, while the base trade is now a popular strategy, it should not be misconstrued as the main driving force behind the flow of funds to ETFs.

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" ETF资金流入被CME空头抵消的流行观点是错误的。"伦德表示，“有机定向需求是ETF强劲流动背后的关键来源，而不是受大宗期货溢价套利驱动的交易员。”

The popular view that ETF inflows are offset by CME is wrong. According to Lund, “organic targeting needs are the key source behind the strong ETF flows, not traders driven by bulk futures premiums.”

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伦德说，从去年11月底到今年3月中旬，基差要高得多，之后除了2月份的短暂暴跌外，基差年化后徘徊在20%左右。他还说，自那以来，过去几周这一溢价一直徘徊在11%至16%左右，目前已降至6%左右。

Lund said that between the end of November last year and mid-March this year, the base spread was much higher, and then, with the exception of a brief fall in February, the base spreads around 20 per cent annually. He also said that since then, the premium has hovered between 11 and 16 per cent over the past few weeks, and has now fallen to about 6 per cent.

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不过，基差交易的流行可能会使短期ETF流量数据在衡量投资者对该资产类别的兴趣时不再是一个清晰的指标。彭博汇编的数据显示，自今年1月成立以来，这些基金的净流入已达156亿美元，但昨日流出的资金为6500万美元。

However, the prevalence of base-trading transactions may make short-term ETF flow data no longer a clear indicator in measuring investors’ interest in this asset class. Bloomberg compiled data showing that since its inception in January this year, net inflows to these funds have reached $15.6 billion, but yesterday's outflows amounted to $65 million.

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“比特币ETF的净流入每天都受到密切关注，但这些流入并不总是代表对比特币的有机需求。”FalconX的多西表示。

“The net inflows of Bitcoin ETF are closely monitored on a daily basis, but these inflows do not always represent the organic demand of Bitcoin.” Dosi of FalconX indicates.