被Facebook点燃的虚拟币空间： 比特币暴涨重回11000美元，重构危与机？
6月22日，比特币冲破一万美元大关，重新成为市场关注热点。但比特币的火热走势并未因此停止，而是继续高歌猛进。
On 22 June, Bitcoin broke the $10,000 threshold and became a market hotspot. But the heat of Bitcoin did not stop, but continued to sing.
截至6月25日19点，21世纪经济报道记者在火币交易所网站查询到比特币交易价格达11468.30美元。从业内普遍预测情况看，这一涨势大概率仍将持续，甚至有预测指出比特币价格在2019年年末或将达到2万美元，有望突破2017年末创下的最高纪录1.92万美元。
As at 1900 hours on 25 June, 21st Century Economic Reporters were able to find a price of $11468.30 on the currency exchange website. According to the general forecast in industry, this increase is likely to continue, and even to be forecast to reach $20,000 by the end of 2019, reaching a record high of $19.2 million at the end of 2017.
而这一转折点的来临业内多认为与Facebook近日发布“天秤座”（Libra）加密数字货币白皮书有关。
This turning point is thought to be linked to the recent release by Facebook of the White Paper on Encrypted Digital Currency (Libra).
比特币2019的“绝地反击”
bitcoin2019's 's `diplomatic backlash'
以比特币为代表的数字货币在过去两年为币圈带来了太多过山车般的心跳体验。
The digital currency, represented by bitcoin, has given the currency circles too much of an over-street heartbeat experience over the past two years.
一位较早进场的币圈投资者对21世纪经济报道记者表示，2018年初可以说是币圈最辉煌的时期，一方面比特币的价格处于历史最高位，同时区块链的概念也越发大热，很多“圈外人”纷纷涌入参与币券创业、就业、买币，币市前景似乎一片大好。但事实超出很多人预期，币价一跌再跌，新成立的区块链概念公司也批量退场，超过9成“韭菜们”被套在高位，“腥风血雨”过后，到2019年再讨论区块链和币的声音与热度都降低了很多。
An earlier currency investor said to a 21st century economic reporter that early in 2018, the price of bitcoins was at its highest in history, while the concept of block chains became more hot, with many “outdoors” pouring into coupons, jobs, and currency purchases, and the prospect of currency markets seemed to be a great deal better. But the fact was much better than expected, with currency prices falling again, and the newly created sector chain concept companies retreated in large numbers, with more than 90% of “celebrets” in high places, and the sound and heat of blocks and coins being discussed again in 2019.
21世纪经济报道记者从Wind获取的数据显示，2017年比特币打破了此前相对平稳的走势进入快速上升通道，至2017年12月16日，比特币价格达1.92万美元并创下历史最高。但好景不长，比特币在2018年初短暂辉煌后便“跌下神坛”，价格持续振荡下行，在12月跌破4000美元、逼近3000美元，跌幅超过80%。
According to data obtained from Wind, 21st Century economic reporters, Bitcoin broke its previous relatively stable trend into a fast-rising trajectory, reaching the highest price of $19.2 million on December 16, 2017. But the good news was that Bitcoin “falled down the altar” after a short period of glory in early 2018, with prices continuing to go down, falling by $4,000 in December, close to $3,000, or more than 80%.
在2019年年初，比特币价格也维持低迷状态。今年1月-2月，比特币价格维持在3500美元左右。
Bitcoin prices also remained depressed at the beginning of 2019. In January-February of this year, bitcoin prices remained around $3,500.
但21世纪经济报道记者采访中发现，2018年比特币的动荡令不少投资者难言未来走势与时间表，但依然有不少投资者对比特币持有信心。
However, in an interview with the 21st century economic reporter, it was found that the turmoil in bitcoin in 2018 had made it difficult for many investors to speak of future trends and timetables, but that a number of investors, bitcoin, still had confidence.
从2019年3月以来比特币的表现看，其实现了快速的“绝地反击”。
In the light of the performance of Bitcoin since March 2019, it achieved a rapid “diplomatic counter-attack”.
从各大交易所数据看，3月下旬以来比特币价格涨势明显，3月末比特币价格突破停滞3个月的4000美元大关。此后保持振荡上行态势，至5月3日，比特币价格飙升至6000美元；5月11日，时隔7个月后比特币价格重回7000美元。5月底一度突破9000美元但又迅速回落。
According to data from major exchanges, the price of Bitcoin has risen significantly since late March, breaking the three-month stagnation threshold of $4,000 at the end of March. Since then, the oscillation has continued, and by 3 May, the price of Bitcoin has jumped to $6,000; on 11 May, after seven months, the price of Bitcoin has returned to $7,000.
但伴随着6月18日Facebook的加密货币Libra官网正式上线并发布了白皮书，市场随之振奋，比特币价格随之稳定在9000美元之上。并在6月22日，短短4天后突破了万元大关。
On June 18, when Facebook’s encrypted currency Libra official network officially went online and published a white paper, the market cheered, and Bitcoin’s prices stabilized at $9,000. On June 22, four days later, the 10,000 dollar threshold was broken.
较2018年底，短短半年，比特币目前价格相较2018年底3500美元左右价格已经增长超2倍。前述币圈投资人告诉21世纪经济报道记者，随着数字经济的发展，2019年以来数字资产的价值也开始逐步回归。此外，Facebook发起倡导的Libra项目让人们看到了区块链在支付等领域广泛落地的巨大潜力和价值，多方因素均利好比特币。
By the end of 2018, just six months later, Bitcoin’s current prices had risen more than twice as fast as around $3,500 at the end of 2018. The previous investors in the currency circle told the 21st century economic reporters that, as the digital economy developed, the value of digital assets had gradually returned since 2019.
高位入市危与机重构
High-level danger and re-establishment
虽然2018年以比特币为代表的数字货币价格跳水，但从主要交易所2018年业绩表现看，投资人对数字货币的投资热情不减。
Although the price of the digital currency, represented by bitcoin, jumped in 2018, investor interest in the digital currency remained constant in terms of the performance of the major exchange in 2018.
以我国出海交易所代表火币为例，据其创始人李林在今年初致员工的信中透露，2018年火币全球交易所交易量突破2000亿美金，手续费收入突破5亿美金，同比2017年增长均超过100%。此外，在2019年Q1火币投入的HT回购金额达到1614万美金，相比2018年Q4的1082万美金，环比增长超49%。
In the case of our foreign exchange, which represents the currency of fire, its founder, Lee Lin, in a letter to his employees earlier this year, revealed that in 2018, the price of the currency global exchange exceeded US$ 200 billion and the fee revenue exceeded US$ 500 million, an increase of more than 100 per cent in 2017. Moreover, in 2019, the amount of HT buybacks invested in Q1 was US$ 16.14 million, compared with US$ 10.82 million in 2018, an increase of 49 per cent over the ring.
市场人士多认为，加密货币2018年全年价格大幅下跌后，交易量仍保持如此增势或许说明市场上有更多投资者参与其中。
Marketers are of the view that the fact that the volume of transactions has remained so high after the significant fall in prices of encrypted currencies throughout the year 2018 may be an indication of the increased participation of investors in the market.
一位加密货币交易所业务人士告诉记者，市场从不缺乏比特币投资者。虽然一些国家准备出台法律法规限制比特币，但因为比特币数量有限，其结果往往是越限制越上涨。比如在印度近日发布限制比特币持有的法规后，其印度国内比特币价格溢价超600美元。
While some countries are prepared to introduce laws and regulations to limit bitcoin, the result is often higher because of the limited number of bitcoins. For example, following recent Indian regulations restricting Bitcoin holdings, the price premium for bitcoins in India is over $600.
作为一种合理的推测，在比特币短期内重回高位的冲击下，难言是否有更多投资人选择高位投向比特币。更有观望的投资者表示，不知高位入市是否会存在较大风险。
As a reasonable assumption, given the impact of Bitcoin’s return to heights in the short term, it is difficult to say whether there are more investors who choose to go up to bitcoins. More prospective investors say that there is no greater risk of high entry.
而未来比特币是否真正回暖或者还有多少上升空间，目前业内意见并不统一。
At present, there is no consensus in the industry as to whether or not Bitcoin will actually warm up in the future or how much room there is for upswing.
比特币预测工具Mayer Multiple分析得出，从目前的价格趋势来看，年末比特币价格会达到21，000美元。但不少比特币分析人士持相对谨慎态度。
The Bitcoin forecasting tool Mayer Multiple's analysis shows that, in view of current price trends, the price of bitcoin at the end of the year will reach $21,000. But a number of bitcoin analysts are relatively cautious.
火币大学校长于佳宁在近日接受21世纪经济报道记者采访时表示，最主要影响比特币价格的还是整个经济周期。“随着全球经济不确定性增加，比特币本身的避险属性愈发明显。”
In a recent interview with the 21st Century Economic Reporter, the Dean of the University of Coney said that the most important influence on the price of bitcoin was the entire economic cycle. “As global economic uncertainty increases, bitcoin’s own risk-averse attributes become more apparent.”
但他同时建议，投资者不宜轻易追高，做空也要特别谨慎。在他看来，数字资产依然是风险较高的投资资产，资产价格的涨跌幅度和速度都与传统资产有显著差异。
At the same time, however, he suggested that investors should not be easy to pursue and be particularly cautious. In his view, digital assets remained high-risk investment assets, with significant variations in the magnitude and speed of asset prices from traditional assets.
Euro Pacific Capital首席执行官Peter Schiff甚至公开警告称，比特币价格最终会下跌，导致账面收益被抹去。他直言，除非卖出，否则比特币价格上涨多高并不重要。每个买家最终都必须卖出才能从上涨中获益。但一旦那些“坚定持有者”决定兑现，价格就会暴跌，账面收益在实现之前就会被抹去。
Euro Pacific Capital’s CEO, Peter Schiff, even publicly warned that the price of bitcoins would eventually fall, leading to the loss of book revenues. He pointed out that it was not important how high the price of bitcoins would be unless sold.
（编辑：李伊琳）
(Edit: Lee Elin)
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