深度解析 NFT 和 ETH 之间相关性

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自从去年夏季的疯狂涨势后，NFT 正面临有史以来的市场冷静期。我们在第一篇文章中调查了蓝筹股 NFT 的表现，这篇文章中将继续研究推动 NFT 市场价格变化的宏观趋势。

Since last summer’s insane rise, NFT is facing an unprecedented period of market coolness. In our first post, we looked at the performance of blue-share NFT, which will continue to look at macro-trends that drive changes in NFT prices.

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在过去一周，以太坊上有超过 2.46 亿美元的交易量，市场上的交易主要以 ETH 计价。随着 ETH 的价值从 4K 美元以上的历史高位跌至 1K 美元，NFT 的估值也在这次暴跌中受到影响。

In the past week, there have been more than $246 million in transactions in the Taiku, with market transactions denominated mainly in ETH. As the value of ETH fell from an historical high above $4K to $1K, the NFT valuation was also affected by this collapse.

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在如此不确定的、充斥着投机的时期，我们可以利用数据从噪音中发现信号，以数据导向做出决定。在这篇文章中，我们将研究 ETH 和 NFT 之间的关联性。

In times of such uncertainty and speculation, we can use data to detect signals from noises and make data-oriented decisions. In this article, we will study the correlation between ETH and NFT.

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一般来说，市值是分析一家公司、NFT 收藏品或加密货币的美元价值的一个指标。这个指标是基于该资产的当前股价和其流通股总数。由于股票和加密货币都是可替换的资产，这些类型资产的市值是通过将流通股总数乘以一股的当前市场价格来计算的。例如，如果一个加密货币共有 100 万股，每股股价为 20 美元，其市值将是 100*20 美元=2000 万美元。

As a general rule, market value is an indicator of the dollar value of a company, NFT collection or encrypted currency. This indicator is based on the current stock price of the asset and the total number of its circulation shares. Since both stocks and encrypted currencies are fungible assets, the market value of these types of assets is calculated by multiplying the total number of shares in circulation by the current market price of one share. For example, if an encrypted currency had a total of 1 million shares at $20 per share, the market value would be $100*20 = $20 million.

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在 NFT 中，由于稀有性和其他动态因素，集合中的每个 NFT 可能具有不同的价值。NFT 市场也是由 ERC1155（Semi-fungible）代币组成。为了适应这两种因素，并提供一个 NFT 收藏品总价值的准确表示，NFTGo.io 市值计算是以 NFT 收藏品的地板价和其最新交易价格之间的最大值。这样我们可以剔除部分最高价藏品，从而体现收藏品的总价值。

In NFT, each NFT in the collection may have different values because of rareness and other dynamic factors. The NFT market is also made up of ERC 1155 (Semi-fungible). To adapt to both factors, and to provide an accurate indication of the total value of the NFT collection, the market value of NFTGo.io is calculated as the maximum value between the floor price of the NFT collection and its most recent trade price.

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市值在评估项目的潜在上升空间时起着关键作用，而且市值是投资者衡量 NFT 支付意愿的重要指标之一。虽然一个 NFT 的平均价格可能被高估或低估，但市值可以更准确地确定 NFT 总价值。 在投资一个 NFT 项目前，关注市值、地板价、均价至关重要。市值代表项目的风险和价值，这些动态因素事关如何对 NFT 进行战略投资。

Market value plays a key role in assessing the potential upward space of the project, and market value is one of the key indicators for investors to measure NFT’s willingness to pay. While the average price of a NFT may be overestimated or underestimated, the market value can more accurately determine the total value of NFT.

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1- 风险管理

1-Risk management

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降低风险和投资组合多样化是成功的 NFT 投资策略的关键组成部分，风险管理和预测风险可以让玩家在投机市场中做出更好的决定。

Risk reduction and portfolio diversification are key components of successful NFT investment strategies, and risk management and risk forecasting allow players to make better decisions in speculative markets.

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类似于当风暴来袭时，树干和树根更结实的橡树比小树苗更加坚挺；相对于新发行的项目和低市值的项目，高市值的 NFT 项目通常波动性较小，这说明市值在风险管理中的关键作用，本文将解释更多不同类别的 NFT 项目的波动性。

Similar to the fact that when storms strike, more solid oak trees and roots are stronger than small tree seedlings; higher-market NFT projects tend to be less volatile than newly issued projects and low-market projects, indicating the key role of market value in risk management, and this paper will explain the volatility of more different categories of NFT projects.

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2- 价值

2-Value

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市场现状决定了市值。这一指标可以帮助投资者判断其他投资者对 NFT 的估值，有助于交易者和投资者识别高价值项目。

The market situation determines the market value. This indicator helps investors to judge the valuation of NFT by other investors and helps traders and investors to identify high-value items.

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激进清盘后令人眼花缭乱的抛售导致 ETH 价格急剧缩水，而 NFT 市场主要以 ETH 计价，几乎所有的 NFT 交易都由 ETH 或 WETH 完成。

The frenzy of selling after a radical clean-up led to a sharp contraction of ETH prices, while NFT markets were predominantly ETH-based, with almost all NFT transactions completed by ETH or WETH.

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NFT 和 ETH 的重估投资回报率

NFT and ETH revaluation return on investment

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ETH 的市值已经从 2021 年 12 月初的高点大约 5500 亿美元下降到 2022 年 6 月的不到 1300 亿美元，在过去三个月里，ETH 市值和 NFT 市值都在一起下跌。

The market value of ETH has fallen from a high of about $55 billion in December 2021 to less than $130 billion in June 2022, and the market value of ETH and NFT has fallen together over the last three months.

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下图展示了从这一时期开始到今天，重新调整后的 ETH 和 NFT 市值回报率。在重定图表中，两个市值都以 100 开始，超过 100 表示增加，低于 100 表示从初始值开始减少。ETH 和 NFTs 的共同下降趋势表现出较强的相关性。

The figure below shows the adjusted market value returns for ETH and NFT from the beginning of this period to the present. In recasting the chart, both market values started with 100, increased by more than 100, and decreased by less than 100. The common downward trend between ETH and NFTs shows a strong correlation.

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过去 3 个月的重定 ETH 和 NFT 市值回报率

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图表中另一个有趣的数据点是，在当前的熊市周期中，NFT 市场与 ETH 相比具有很强的弹性。虽然 ETH 从最初的市值下降了 50% 以上，但 NFT 市场只下降了 30%。

Another interesting point in the chart is that NFT markets are more resilient than ETHs in the current bear market cycle. Although ETH has declined from its initial market value by more than 50%, NFT markets have declined by only 30%.

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为什么 NFT 的崩溃程度低于 ETH？

Why is NFT collapsing less than ETH?

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值得考虑的是，NFT 是加密市场中一个非常小的子集。NFT 将文化，艺术，金融和交易融合在一起，提供了一种连接创作者和粉丝的去中心化方式。ETH 比 NFT 的主流程度要高几个数量级，在加密货币市场上也有高杠杆的巨大基金在过去几周内被大幅清算，所有这些动态一起发挥作用，导致 ETH 的市值出现更大的下跌，下面的图表说明了这两种资产的市场规模。

It is worth considering that NFT is a very small subset of the encryption market. The NFT combines culture, art, finance, and transactions to provide a way to centralize the connection between creators and fans. The ETH is a few orders of magnitude higher than NFT, and large funds with high leverage in the crypto-currency market have been significantly liquidated over the past few weeks, all of which together have contributed to a greater decline in the market value of ETH, as illustrated in the graph below.

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ETH 与 NFT 市值规模对比

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加密货币市场自 2009 年以来已经经历了几次迭代和周期，随着时间的推移，这些数字资产已经成为交易和投资的主流方式之一。大型基金和做市商大量投资于比特币和以太坊等顶级加密资产。与 NFT 相比，加密货币是区块链生态系统中一个成熟的市场部门。

The crypto-currency market has undergone several overlaps and cycles since 2009, and over time these assets have become one of the dominant modes of trading and investment. Large funds and marketers have invested heavily in top-class encrypted assets, such as Bitcoin and Etheria.

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量化 NFT 相对于加密货币的主流程度的一种方法是计算 NFT 市值与 ETH 等主流加密货币资产的比率。例如，在 2022 年 3 月 21 日，根据 YCharts 的数据，ETH 的市值为 2383 亿美元，NFTGo.io 在这一天记录的 NFT 市值图为 193 亿美元。3 月 21 日的 NFT/ETH 比率将是 19.3 / 238.3，大约等于 0.26。另一方面，这个数字在 12 月 5 日发生了变化，当时 ETH 为 4980 亿美元，NFT 为 98 亿美元。NFT/ETH 比率的这些变化可以显示出 NFT 随着时间的推移与 ETH 市值规模的接近程度。在这种情况下，分析的重点不一定是预测 NFTs 何时能达到 1 的比率值，而是分析 NFT 相对于 ETH 这种主流资产的增长速度。

For example, on March 21, 2022, according to YCharts, the market value of ETH was $23,83.3 billion and NFTgo. Io recorded the market value of NFT at that date was $19.3 billion. In this case, the focus of the analysis would not necessarily be to predict when NFTs would reach their ratio of about 0.26. On the other hand, the figure changed on December 5, when ETH was $498 billion and NFT was $9.8 billion. These changes in the NFT/ETH ratios could indicate the closeness of NFTs over time to the market value of ETH.

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下图显示了从 2021 年 11 月底到 2022 年 5 月的 NFT/ETH 市值比。我们可以观察到 NFT/ETH 比率的增加。这个比率在短短两个月内从 2021 年底的 0.02 以下增长到 0.05 以上。NFT 市场又继续增长，从 0.05 到现在越来越接近 0.08。

The figure below shows the ratio of the market value of NFT/ETH from the end of November 2021 to May 2022. We can see an increase in the NFT/ETH ratio. This ratio rises from below 0.02 at the end of 2021 to over 0.05 in just two months. The NFT market continues to grow, from 0.05 to close to 0.08.

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过去 3 个月 NFT 与 ETH 的市值比值

NFT 和 ETH 的投资回报率的对数尺度

logarithmic measure of NFT and ETH return on investment

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早些时候，我们研究了 NFT 和 ETH 的再投资回报率。然而，在过去的 3 个月里，NFT 和 ETH 的价格都出现了大幅波动。为了捕捉这些剧烈变化，我们可以使用对数比例图来准确分析各种大小变化的投资回报率百分比。下图显示了 ETH 和 NFT 的投资回报率相对于其在周初的市值。

Earlier, we studied the reinvestment returns of NFT and ETH. Over the past three months, however, the prices of NFT and ETH have fluctuated significantly. To capture these dramatic changes, we can use logarithm maps to accurately analyse the percentage return on investments of all sizes and sizes. The figure below shows the return on ETH and NFT investments relative to their market value at the beginning of the week.

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ETH 和 NFT 的投资回报率相对于 30 天前的对数比例

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我们可以观察到，ETH 和 NFT 都在向同一个方向发展。随着 ETH 的下跌，NFT 的价格也开始下跌，因此，它们的市值也在下降。然而，ETH 市值的变化比 NFT 更为剧烈。通过只放大到过去一周，我们可以从 NFT 市场看到更微妙的变化。

We can see that ETH and NFT are moving in the same direction. As ETH fell, the prices of NFT began to fall, so did their market value. However, the market value of ETH changed more dramatically than that of NFT. By zooming in to the last week, we could see a more subtle change from the NFT market.

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ETH 和 NFT 的投资回报率相对于 7 天前的对数比例

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相关系数

Correlation

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两个数据点的相关系数让我们深入了解它们之间的依赖程度，研究两个变量的相关性使我们能够了解每个数值的影响动态。

The correlation factors of the two data points provide us with an in-depth understanding of the degree of reliance between them, and a study of the relevance of the two variables allows us to understand the dynamics of the impact of each value.

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接近 1 的相关系数意味着这两个值之间存在一对一的关系。在我们的案例中，这意味着 NFT 市场紧跟 ETH 的市值。另一种情况可能是，NFT 和 ETH 的市值有微妙的关联。在这种情况下，相关性将接近于零。我们可以使用散点图来说明 NFT 市值和交易量之间的相关性。在我们研究结果之前，下面的图表显示了正相关、负相关或零相关的每种情况在散点图中的显示情况。

The coefficient close to 1 means that there is a one-to-one relationship between the two values. In our case, this means that the NFT market is closely following the market value of the ETH. Another scenario is that the market value of NFT and ETH is inextricably linked. In this case, the correlation is close to zero. We can use a scatter chart to illustrate the correlation between the market value of NFT and the volume of transactions. Prior to the results of the study, the chart below shows what is shown in the scatter chart for each case, whether positive or negative, or zero-relevant.

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不同关联度的散点图的结果

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散点图也可以显示两个数值之间的相关强度，上述图表都是理论上的完全正相关、负相关或零相关的情况。然而在现实世界中，这些关联性可能会更弱，甚至显示出盘整。

Scatter maps can also show the intensity of the correlation between the two values, which are theoretically fully positive, negative or zero-relevant. In the real world, however, these correlations may be weaker or even more compact.

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这些关联性的强度取决于市场的周期。

the intensity of these linkages depends on the cycle of the market.

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下面的图表说明了在过去 3 个月中 NFT 和 ETH 市值之间的相关性。X 轴代表 NFT 的总市值，在其高峰期增长到超过 380 亿美元，y 轴表示同一时期 3 个月内的以太坊市值。

The chart below illustrates the correlation between the market value of NFT and ETH over the past three months. X axis represents the total market value of NFT, which grew to over $38 billion during its peak period, and y axis represents the market value of Ethio over the same three months.

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过去 3 个月 ETH 和 NFT 市值的相关性

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然而，当我们把时间范围扩大到 1 年时，相关关系并不总是负的或正的。在 NFT 市场上，曾有过相关关系既是负又是正的时候，NFT 并不直接跟随 ETH 趋势。NFT 特有的牛市，大量的发行，巨鲸的入场，以及新蓝筹的出现，这些都可以促使 NFT 市场更加独立于 ETH 市场。

However, when we expand the time frame to one year, the relationship is not always negative or positive. When there was a negative or positive relationship in the NFT market, NFT did not follow the ETH trend directly. The NFT-specific cattle market, the mass distribution, the entry of giant whales, and the emergence of new blues could all contribute to the NFT market being more independent of the ETH market.

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过去一年 ETH 和 NFT 市值的相关性

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分析 NFT 和 ETH 的皮尔逊相关度

Analyse the Pearson correlation of NFT and ETH

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皮尔逊相关是一个用于分析两个变量之间线性关联强度的公式。这个值（用 r 表示）可以在 - 1 和 1 之间。根据 r 的值，我们可以分析两个变量之间的线性相关性。

Pearson is a formula used to analyse the linear correlation intensity between the two variables. This value (expressed in r) can be between -1 and 1. Based on r, we can analyse the linear correlation between the two variables.

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皮尔逊相关系数

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使用比特币作为参考

Use bitcoin as a reference

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比特币被广泛认为与 ETH 强相关。由于这两种加密货币在整个加密货币市值中占很大比例，并且是最受欢迎的两种加密货币，它们通常在市场低买高卖时期一起上涨和下跌。我们可以用 BTC/ETH 之间的强正相关关系作为分析 NFT/ETH 相关性强度的参考。

Bitcoin is widely considered to be associated with ETH strength. Because these two encrypted currencies account for a large proportion of the market value of the entire encrypt currency, and are the two most popular cryptic currencies, they usually rise and fall together during low-purchase high-sales periods. We can use the strong positive correlation between BTC/ETH as a reference for analysing NFT/ETH relevance intensity.

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相关性是不稳定的

The correlation is unstable.

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然而，我们需要考虑不同市场周期对相关性的作用。在分析金融资产时，值得记住的是，相关性是一个周期和环境相关的因素。两种资产之间关联的强度，甚至是正的或负的关联，都可能随着时间的推移而变化。为了说明这一点，我们分析了两个对：ETH/BTC 和 ETH/NFT 在四个不同的时间窗口中的 Pearson 相关性:

However, we need to consider the relevance of different market cycles. In analysing financial assets, it is worth remembering that correlation is a cycle- and environment-related factor. The intensity of the relationship between the two assets, even positive or negative, can change over time. To illustrate this, we have analysed the relevance of two pairs: ETH/BTC and ETH/NFT in four different time windows:

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• 长期：1 年
• 中期：3 个月
• 短期：1 个月
• 近期：1 周

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下图说明了这两个货币对在过去一年中的皮尔逊相关性。这张图说明了两种投机性资产之间的相关性会有多大的波动，即使这两种资产是 ETH 和 BTC，而且它们同处于加密货币领域，两种资产之间的负相关关系是它们在市场上独特价值主张的信号。我们可以观察到，ETH/BTC 的关联度比 ETH/NFT 的关联度更接近于 1。以 BTC 与 ETH 的关联为参考，我们可以观察到 NFT 市场相对于 ETH 的独立运动。

The figure below illustrates the relevance of these two currencies to Pearson over the past year. This chart shows how volatile the correlation between the two speculative assets is, even though they are ETH and BTC, and they are in the domain of encrypted currency, the negative correlation between the two assets is a sign of their unique value claims in the market. We can see that the relevance of ETH/BTC is closer to 1 than that of ETH/NFT. By reference to the association of BTC with ETH, we can observe the independent movement of the NFT market vis-à-vis ETH.

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过去一年中 ETH/BTC 和 ETH/NFT 之间的皮尔逊相关性

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NFT 能否成为对冲加密货币暴跌的工具？

Can NFT be a tool for hedge-encrypted currency collapse?

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最重要的是，接近于零的相关性表明与其他资产的独立性，而负相关性的资产被用作对冲其他资产。一个具体的例子是通过持有黄金等资产来对冲美元贬值。NFT 和数字收藏品有被用作对冲 ETH 等加密货币可能下跌的风险。

Most importantly, near-zero correlations indicate independence from other assets, while non-relevant assets are used to hedge against other assets. A concrete example is the depreciation of the dollar by holding assets such as gold.

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自 2022 年初以来，加密货币一直处于熊市。但 NFT 的狂热仍在持续，像 Otherdeed 和 Moonbirds 这样的项目在加密货币熊市中取得了巨大成功。下面的图表将时间范围缩小到 3 个月。

Since the beginning of 2022, the encrypt currency has been in the bear market. But the NFT frenzy continues, with projects like Othedeed and Moonbirds achieving great success in the encrypt currency bear city. The chart below narrows the time frame to three months.

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过去三个月 ETH/BTC 和 ETH/NFT 的皮尔逊相关性

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下图说明了这两种货币对在过去一个月中的皮尔逊相关关系。在这个时间窗口，ETH 和 BTC 的相关性已经非常接近 1，并且在这三个月内几乎保持平稳。然而，即使 NFT 在这一时期开始时的相关性接近 1，但自 6 月 13 日以来，NFT 与 ETH 的相关性一直呈负增长趋势。与月初相比，NFT 最近一直在向更不稳定的相关性转变。这可能是由 NFT 特有的几个事件造成的。

The figure below illustrates the relationship between the two currencies to Pearson in the past month. In this window of time, the relevance of ETH and BTC has been very close to 1 and has remained almost stable for three months. However, even though NFT was close to 1 at the beginning of the period, NFT’s relevance to ETH has been on a negative growth trend since June 13.

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1- 蓝筹股收藏和新公司类似 Yuga Labs 等公司发布新公告

1- New announcements issued by companies such as Blue Stock Collection and New Companies similar to Yuga Labs

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2- NFT NYC

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过去一个月 ETH/BTC 和 ETH/NFT 的皮尔逊相关度

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但情况并非总是如此。随着我们缩短时间范围到目前的熊市，我们可以看到 ETH 和 NFT 之间更强的正相关关系。在过去的一周里，NFT 和 ETH 的市值一直是强相关，这表明 NFT 比牛市时更和 ETH 市场相关，NFT Summer 的回冷期已经被蓝筹 NFT 推出新系列来扩大品牌的慢节奏所取代。

But this is not always the case. As we narrow the time frame to the current bear market, we can see a stronger positive correlation between ETH and NFT. The market value of NFT and ETH has been strong for the past week, suggesting that NFT is more related to the ETH market than the cattle market, and that NFT Summer's cooling period has been replaced by a new series of NFT rolls out to expand the slow rhythm of brands.

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过去一周 ETH/BTC 和 ETH/NFT 的皮尔逊关联度

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在过去的几周里，加密货币市场受到了最新宏观事件的冲击。5 月初 $LUNA 的大崩盘是加密货币衰退的前奏，对美国美联储激进加息的结果。

In the last few weeks, the crypto-currency market has been hit by the latest macro-events. At the beginning of the month of May, the collapse of the dollar was the prelude to the decline of the crypto-currency, the result of a radical increase in interest rates on the US Federal Reserve.

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在全球大流行期间，加密货币市场的牛市周期现在已经过渡到清盘，对冲基金失去高杠杆头寸，加密货币投资者也经历了其投资组合总价值的急剧下降。

During the global pandemic, the cattle-market cycle in the crypto-currency market has now moved to clean-up, hedge funds have lost high leverage positions and crypto-currency investors have experienced a sharp decline in the total value of their portfolios.

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值得注意的是，尽管 NFT，DeFi 和加密货币有着本质上不同的动态和价值主张，就像股票和加密货币市场如何一起涨跌一样，相同的动态也会影响 NFT 市场情绪。

It is worth noting that, despite the fundamentally different dynamics and value propositions of NFT, DeFi and encrypted currencies, the same dynamics can affect NFT market sentiment, just as the stock and crypto-currency markets rise and fall together.

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ETH 和 NFT 之间的这些关联性为发现 NFT 市场的低点和高点提供了机会。然而我们观察到，有时 NFT 市场与 ETH 并不相关，这表明在炒作 NFT 的时候，NFT 可以被看作是一种独立资产类别。我们也看到，在过去一段时间 NFT 市场的变化没有 ETH 市场那么大，这主要是由于 ETH 市场的杠杆头寸和清盘提高了购买压力，所以 NFT 要成为主流市场还有很长的路要走。

These linkages between ETH and NFT provide an opportunity to discover the low and high points of the NFT market. However, we observe that sometimes the NFT market is not related to ETH, suggesting that NFT can be seen as a separate asset class when it is being invented. We also see that changes in the NFT market have not been as large as the ETH market in the past time, mainly because the leverage position and clearing of the ETH market has increased the pressure on purchases, so that NFT has a long way to go to become a mainstream market.

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这个熊市可能会让一些 NFT 销声匿迹，但更多的 NFT 正在从市场崩溃中复苏。

This bear city may have made some NFT disappear, but more NFT is recovering from the collapse of the market.

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