比特币期货上市三次上涨熔断，有点恐怖？这是必须知道的七件事

作者：王君晖

Author: Wang Junjun

芝加哥期权交易所(Cboe) 比特币期货上线交易，比特币正式迎来走进华尔街的里程碑时刻。上线第一天，三次触发熔断！比特币期货的波动性超出预期，也超出想象。

The Chicago Futures Exchange (Cboe) deals online, and Bitcoin is officially entering Wall Street at a milestone point. On the first day of access, three break-ups are triggered. Bitcoin futures are more volatile than expected and more than expected.

1、09:35在比特币期货涨超10%后，Cboe表示，由于波动性较大，暂停交易两分钟；

At 1,09:35, after a 10 per cent increase in Bitcoin futures, Cboe indicated that the transaction had been suspended for two minutes due to high volatility;

2、11:05涨幅进一步扩大至20%，Cboe再次宣布暂停交易；

The 11:05 increase was further expanded to 20 per cent, and Cboe again announced a suspension of the transaction;

3、11:35Cboe今日第三次宣布暂停交易。比特币现货价格也大幅上涨。

Three, eleven, thirty-five Cboe has suspended the deal for the third time today. Bitcoin’s spot price has also risen significantly.

据Bitfinex平台报价，在期货交易启动后最初五分钟内，比特币由14468美元涨逾1000美元至15647美元，涨幅达8%。当前比特币现货价格进一步升至16289美元，较比特币期货交易开始时涨幅达13%。此外，交易开始数分钟后，CBOE的网站一度出现了“无法显示”的状况，CBOE称原因在于网站短时出现巨大的流量

According to an offer from the Bitfinex platform, in the first five minutes after the start of the futures transaction, Bitcoin rose from $14,468 to over $1,000 to $15,647 or 8 per cent. The current spot price of Bitcoin rose further to $16,289 or 13 per cent from the start of the futures transaction. In addition, a few minutes after the start of the transaction, the CBOE website appeared &ldquao; it was not possible to show ” and the situation, CBOE claimed that it was due to a very large traffic in the site.

CBOE的熔断机制是，涨跌幅触及10%，暂停交易两分钟，涨跌幅触及20%，暂停5分钟。而除了用熔断机制应对其波动外，CBOE还将比特币期货合约交易的保证金从最早宣布的每日结算价的33%提升至44%。

CBOE’s smelting mechanism is a 10% drop, a two-minute suspension, a 20% drop, and a five-minute break. In addition to using the smelting mechanism to deal with its volatility, CBOE has raised the bond for futures contracts transactions in Bitcoin from 33% to 44% of the first announced daily settlement price.

(比特币期货两次熔断图片来源：美国金融博客zerohedge)

(Bitcoin futures two-time smelting photo source: US Financial Blog Zerohedge)

XBT的2018年1月份合约(XBT/F8)开于15460美元，在开盘后的前半小时内，该合约最低下探至15420美元，此后逐渐走高。截至今日18:00，比特币期货2018年一月的合约成交价格为15480美元，成交量2710手，每手包含一个比特币。值得注意的是，相较于2018年1月份的合约价格，2月和3月的价格偏高，反应了投资者对比特币价格的较高预期。

XBT’s January 2018 contract (XBT/F8) was opened at $15460 and, in the first half-hour after opening, the contract was detected at $15420 at a minimum, and has been rising steadily since then. As of today, at 18:00, Bitcoin’s January 2018 contract deal price was $15480, with 2710 deals, each hand containing a bitcoin. It is worth noting that higher prices than the contract price in January 2018, in February and March, reflect higher expectations of investors in relation to the price of the currency.

此外，从OKEX的行情来看，交割日期为12.15日的本周合约价格也在上涨，较开盘价15986美元涨幅为7.3%。

In addition, the contract price for the current week, with a delivery date of 12.15 days, is also on the rise, with a 7.3 per cent increase over the opening price of $159.86.

期货市场的价格推动了现货价格的上涨。今日，比特币的现货价格也处于上涨态势，据OKEX行情，比特币价格今日涨幅为7.5%左右。

Futures market prices are driving up spot prices. Today, the price of Bitcoin is also on the rise, with the price of bitcoins rising today by around 7.5%, according to OKEX.

除CBOE已经上线了比特币期货交易外，芝加哥商业交易所CME也将于12月18日正式上线比特币期货。

In addition to the Bitcoin futures transactions already on the CBOE line, the CME of the Chicago Business Exchange will be officially on line on 18 December.

互联网金融千人会联合创始人、中泽嘉盟投资基金合伙人蔡凯龙对两家交易所的机制进行了解读，他认为，比特币期货合约具体条款的设置，处处体现监管和交易所引导比特币走向规范的用心，两家交易所的比特币期货有三个共同点：

The mechanism of the two exchanges was interpreted by the Co-founder of the Federation of Internet Finance Leagues, C. C. C. Choi, partner of the C.J.A. Investment Fund, who argued that the specific terms of the Bitcoin futures contract were designed to reflect the interest of regulation and exchange in guiding bitcoins to the norm, and that there were three common features in the Bitcoins futures of the two exchanges:

一是对价格操纵和波动的严格控制，具体体现在仓位限制、价格熔断机制和保证金上；

One is the strict control of price manipulation and volatility, as evidenced by position limits, price smelting mechanisms and bonds;

二是现金交割，可以有效解决比特币供给量受限、市场深度不够的问题，同时避免期货市场价格受到现货交易的人为挤压操纵，并能节省交易成本；

The second is cash delivery, which can effectively address the limited supply of bitcoin and the insufficient depth of the market, while avoiding artificial manipulation of futures market prices by spot transactions and saving transaction costs;

三是交易时间充分考虑亚洲市场，两家交易所均把比特币期货的交易开始时间调整到亚洲周一的早上、美国周日的傍晚，可谓用心良苦。

Thirdly, trading times take full account of Asian markets, and it is a good idea for both exchanges to adjust the start-up of Bitcoin futures to Monday morning in Asia and Sunday evening in the United States.

数字货币资深分析师肖磊对记者表示，比特币期货上市首日的波动确实比较大，两次熔断都是因为价格上涨过快，本身就能说明市场对比特币期货呈现出来的是一边倒的多头思维。目前看，还不适合做空者进场，因为市场本身处在对比特币期货的高度期待中，这种期待反而给市场传递的信息是，比特币被主流资本市场接受了，这种背景下，本身比特币期货的上线被认为是巨大的利好，做多情绪较重。

Senior digital currency analyst Xiao Xiao said to reporters that the first day of Bitcoin futures listing was indeed more volatile, and that both smelting breaks were due to the fact that price increases were too fast to indicate that the market was one-sided and multi-headed. For the time being, it was not appropriate to be empty, because the market itself was in the high expectation of Bitcoin futures, which instead conveyed to the market the message that bitcoins were accepted by mainstream capital markets, in a context where the upper line of bitcoins was considered to be a huge advantage and more emotional.

专注区块链及数字货币资产研究的潜链学院创始人陈节志对记者表示，投资中有很多均衡，CME和CBOE推出比特币交易，能够增大资金盘，增强资金流动性，长期来看会减轻价格的波动，使该交易品种的发展更加平稳。随着市场成熟度加深，越来越多的机构投资者进入，影响比特币价格的因素愈发复杂，之前频繁出现的因为单一利好或利空而出现价格剧烈波动的情况会越来越少，炒币人的套利空间会被挤压，整个数字货币和区块链的行业生态才会更加健全并得以良性发展。

According to Chen, the founder of the Sublink College, which specializes in block chains and digital monetary asset research, the investment is well balanced, with CME and CBOE launching bitcoin transactions that can increase the pool of funds, increase liquidity, and, in the long run, reduce price volatility and stabilize the development of the variety of transactions. As markets mature, more and more institutional investors enter, and the factors affecting bitcoin prices become more complex.

在比特币交易正式推出之前，市场上有声音认为，在国际交易平台上线期货交易，会使比特币面临被“做空”的风险。对此，作为数字货币及区块链资产的专业投资者，陈节志对记者表示，看空比特币的主要是两种人，一种是矿工，主要是为了套现保值，以保证大跌的时候矿工的利益不受损，另一种是散户，散户的力量对整个市场构不成威胁。

Prior to the official launch of the Bitcoin transaction, the market heard the view that online futures trading on international trading platforms would expose Bitcoin to the risk of being exposed to “ empty & & rdquao; and, in this regard, as a professional investor in digital currency and block chain assets, Chen Xi suggested to journalists that it was mainly two people who looked at airbitcoin, one being a miner, and the other being a miner, in order to preserve value in order to ensure that the interests of the miners would not be compromised at the time of the crash, and the other was a scatterer, whose power did not pose a threat to the market as a whole.

陈节志表示，真正的庄家不会轻易主动做空，只会顺势做空，对比特币这种另类资产来说，中短期来看会下跌，但长期来看一定会上涨，庄家做空的成本会比做多高。对CME市场来说，会有很多庄家在其中进行博弈，不是某个庄家以某个指令可以做空的，而是要有共同的出发点，一般来讲会有一些信号：

For the CME market, there are many dealers who play games, not one of the instructions, but a common point of departure, and in general there are some signals:

第一，具体而言，庄家低买高卖，在底部做多，在高点抛出，同时随着价格的下跌会进行回调，设置若干横截面，有第一天花板、第二天花板等。

First, in particular, the dealer has a low level of buying and selling, does more at the bottom, throws more at the heights, and, at the same time, returns are made as prices fall, with several cross-sections, with first-day panels, the next-day ceilings, and so on.

第二，最核心的是看成交量，有时候庄家自己也会进行买卖对倒，制造假信号和噪音吸引韭菜入场接盘。

Second, depending on the volume of transactions, sometimes the dealers themselves buy and sell, creating false signals and noises that attract pickles to the field.

第三，极端情况下，还会进行压力测试。庄家会选择高位继续拉盘，如果发现在相对较长的时间内无法成交，则说明短期内没有人会跟风了，庄家就会技巧性抛货，但不会一次抛出导致价格剧烈跳水，而是会在中间布局多次回调。

Third, in extreme cases, pressure tests are carried out. Dealers will choose to continue to pull high, and if they find that they cannot do business for a relatively long period of time, it means that no one will be able to follow the wind in the short term, and the dealer will throw the goods in a skillful manner, but will not throw them at once, leading to a sharp price jump, but will do so many times in the middle layout.

“做多比做空的收益风险比更高，涨50%比跌50%概率更大，而庄家欲先做多必先做空，低位吸取筹码。”陈节志称。

& & ldquo; Doo has a higher return risk, a 50% increase than a 50% drop, and the dealer has to do more to take the chips down. & & rdquo; Chenist says.

此前，某资管行业资深人士记者表示，比特币期货上线CME，意味着从小众市场走向公开市场，必然也要接受公开市场的规则，可能会带来以下影响：

Prior to that, a journalist from a senior management profession said that the Bitcoin futures online CME meant moving from small to open markets and necessarily accepting open market rules, which could have the following implications:

第一，期货的推出在原有交易体系外增加了一个交易体系，拓宽了投资比特币的渠道；

First, the introduction of futures added a trading system outside the original trading system, widening the channels for investment in bitcoin;

第二，一般来说，期货行情会领先现货，对现货交易有一定的指导作用，而现货的价格也会进一步影响期货，双方价格相互传导；

Second, as a general rule, futures flows lead the spot and have some guidance on spot transactions, while spot prices can further affect futures, and prices are passed on to each other;

第三，期货合约具有杠杆效应，能够降低投资门槛，吸引更多的投资者；

Third, futures contracts can leverage investment thresholds and attract more investors;

第四，期货交易的本质是实物衍生的远期合约，能够增强比特币的流通性和交易的活跃度。

Fourthly, futures transactions are essentially forward contracts derived in kind, which enhance the liquidity and trade dynamics of Bitcoin.

OKEx分析师称，从长期来看期货市场的交易成本与资本要求量都更低，这会使比特币的交易会更为活跃，使比特币市场的流动性更强。芝商所上线比特币期货对于比特币在全球的知名度以及受认可上也会大大提高，这一消息很大程度上增强了投资者的信心，促进价格上涨。另外一方面期货上线之后投资者就有做空比特币的机会了，短期来看会让比特币价价格有所回调。

According to OKEx analysts, the transaction costs and capital requirements in futures markets are lower in the long run, which would make bitcoin transactions more dynamic and more mobile in bitcoin markets. The news that bitcoin futures on the line of the cheese merchants will also increase significantly in their global visibility and recognition of bitcoins would greatly enhance investor confidence and increase prices.

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