新旧世界大战：股票市场玩法，被点滴搬到数字货币领域
文 | 墨克
& nbsp; Mek & nbsp;
曾经在股票领域成功过的商业模式，正在被复制到区块链领域。
Business models that have been successful in the area of equities are being replicated in block chains.
期权、期货、智能投顾、代客理财，甚至社群、帮投工具等等模式，在区块链领域都出现了。
Patterns of options, futures, smart investors, money management for clients, even communities, intervention tools, etc., have emerged in the area of block chains.
在股市走通的模式，就一定适用于区块链吗？
Does the pattern of moving through the stock market necessarily apply to block chains?
这场复制旧世界的游戏，最终会开创一个新世界吗？
Will this game of copying the old world finally create a new world?
01 复制游戏
01 copy game
其实从一开始，数字货币就已经和股市扯上了关系。
In fact, the digital currency has been associated with the stock market from the very beginning.
交易所、拉盘、庄家、做空、做多、价值币，各种各样的名词，从股市被复制到币圈。
Exchanges, platings, estates, empties, multi-purpose, valuable coins, and various terms are copied from stock markets to currency circles.
“现在的币圈，就是1990年代股市的翻版。”数字货币研究者马铭说。
“The currency circle is now a reversion of the stock market in the 1990s.” Digital money researchers say.
而币圈，正在将股票市场上所有的商业模式，走一遍。
“现在币圈的韭菜大多是跟风投资。曾经有媒体统计过，那些所谓币圈大V预测币价走势，准确率最高的是15%，公众号预测准确率最高的是35%。”某数字货币社区创始人秦煌说。
“Most of the coins are now followed by investment. There have been media statistics of the so-called Big V forecast the price of the currency, with the highest rate of accuracy being 15%, and the highest rate of accuracy in the public forecast being 35%.” The founder of a digital money community, Qin Qin, said.
投资人迫切地想要一个平台，可以让他们更加全面地了解数字货币。
Investors are eager to have a platform that allows them to have a more comprehensive understanding of the digital currency.
于是，各种数字货币社区、社群迅速出现。
As a result, digital money communities and communities emerge rapidly.
这就类似于股票市场的“股吧”。
It's kind of like "shares" in the stock market.
除此之外，类似雪球和同花顺的商业模式，币圈模仿者甚多。
Besides, there are a lot of currency-circle imitation models like snowballs and horoscopes.
还有一些股票市场没玩透的模式，也被拿到平台尝试，比如“代客理财”。
There are also non-operating models in the stock market that have been taken to the platform, such as “finance for customers”.
玩法就是，一些优秀的炒币牛人在平台上募资，牛人自己出一部分，散户募集一部分，风险共担。
The game is that some of the good grocers raise money on the platform, the bulls raise their own share, the farmers collect their share, and the risks are shared.
而每个炒币牛人都会形成自己的炒币记录，如果成绩优秀，就会有更多炒币者拥戴，于是能募到更多钱。
And every scaffolder will have his own record, and if he does well, there will be more scaffolders who will be able to raise more money.
通过优胜劣汰，留存在平台上的，将是经过市场验证的炒币牛人。
By winning and winning, they will remain on the platform and will be market-certified scavengers.
最有意思的是，技术方也在挪移。
The most interesting thing is that technology is moving.
曾经专注做智能投顾、智能投研的平台，也开始尝试研究数字货币。
used to focus on a platform for intellectual investment, intellectual investment, and started trying to study digital money.
“在数字货币领域，智能投顾未必能走通，但智能投研却可以成功。”智子社区联合创始人熊昊称。
“In the field of digital money, intellectual investment may not always work, but intellectual investment can succeed.” The co-founder of the wise-koko community, Bear, called it.
智能投顾，其实在中国股市都未走通。
Smart investors, in fact, do not get through to the Chinese stock market.
原因很简单：中国股市是一个政策市，且炒股者多是投机心理，不愿意长线投资。
The reason is simple: the Chinese stock market is a policy market, and the stock market is largely speculative and reluctant to invest in long-term investments.
而在庄家林立、投机遍地的币圈，智能投顾就如天方夜谭。
And in the shoals of speculators and speculators, intelligent investment is like nightfall.
但智能投研，是对股票进行全面而多维度的分析。
But intelligent research is a comprehensive and multi-dimensional analysis of equities.
就像对一个上市公司的股票，可以从媒体报道、财报、大环境等多个角度去分析一样，炒币用户也需要获得对币种更全面客观的此类分析。
Just as the shares of a listed company can be analysed from a variety of angles, such as media coverage, financial reporting and the general environment, the users of coins need to obtain a more comprehensive and objective analysis of the currencies.
“对于数字货币领域，可以分析的数据也很多，比如白皮书和其他白皮书的重合度、顾问团队都给哪些项目站过台、哪些媒体报道过，等等。”熊昊称，这些都是有价值的数据。
“There are also a lot of data that can be analysed in the field of digital money, such as the overlap between white papers and other white papers, which projects have been overtaken by teams of consultants, which media reports have been reported, etc..” Bear said, these are valuable data.
股市周边的全套配套设施，无一遗漏地被挪移到了数字货币领域。
The full set of appliance facilities around the stock market has been moved to the digital currency area without omission.
02 暗度陈仓
02 & nbsp;
除了一些还算正规的商业模式之外，一些在股票市场走不通，或者监管不允许走的模式，也都被挪移到了数字货币领域。
In addition to some of the more formal business models, some of the models that do not work in the stock market, or that are not allowed to go under regulation, have been moved to the digital currency area.
比如，曾经被叫停的股票配资。
For example, stocks that were called off.
而它被拿到币圈之后，就变成了期货。
And when it's taken to the ring, it turns into futures.
“说起来是期货，实际上和杠杆配资的玩法基本相同。”炒币者杨慧说。
“To speak of futures, it's basically the same way that leverage is played.” Yang Hui, a snobbler, said.
杨慧表示，和配资不同的是，它完全没有投资时限，可以一直持有，但这样，炒币者极有可能因为币价的一路下行，血本无归。
According to Yang Hui, unlike the matching funds, it has no time limit for investment and can be held forever, but in this way it is highly likely that the coffers will lose their blood due to the downside of the currency price.
而操作期权、期货的，多是一些数字货币交易所。
Most of the options and futures operate on a number of digital currency exchanges.
“估计有40%左右的交易所，都在做。”金超称。
“It is estimated that about 40 per cent of the exchanges are working.” Gold is overrated.
据CoinMarketCap数据统计，目前全球交易所数量为13123家，按照40%计算的话，至少有5000家交易所尝试过这样的金融产品。
According to CoinMarketCap data, the number of global exchanges currently stands at 1,123, and at least 5,000, at 40 per cent, have tried such a financial product.
而之前随着股票配资起来的二元期权，也进入了数字货币市场。
这种玩法，其实更加类似于赌博。
It's more like gambling.
投资者根本不需要实际购买数字货币，只需预测币价的涨跌。
Investors do not need to actually purchase digital currencies at all, but only to forecast currency price increases and falls.
判断正确，赚钱，获得收益；判断错误，赔钱，本金减少。
The judgement is correct, the money is good, the money is good; the judgement is wrong, the money is lost, the principal is reduced.
也就是说，购买二元期权后，投资者并没有和期权一样的对产品买入或卖出的权利，而仅仅是花钱买了一个看法。
In other words, after purchasing binary options, investors do not have the same right to buy or sell the product as the option, but simply buy a view for money.
“就是这样一个产品，一个月净赚上亿。”某二元期权交易所创始人河源称，他们的产品甚至可以赌十秒钟之后币价的涨跌，让人拿着手机欲罢不能，不停地赌，直到消耗完所有的资金。
"That's one product, which earns hundreds of millions in a month." The founder of a binary stock exchange said that their product could even bet 10 seconds later on on the rise and fall of the currency, leaving people with their mobile phones to gamble until they run out of money.
全球诸多监管机构曾对二元期权投资做出相关警告，中国证监会也表示二元期权交易行为类似于赌博。
A number of regulatory agencies around the world have warned about dual-period investments, and the CSRC has indicated that dual-term transactions are similar to gambling.
目前，已有地方公安机关以诈骗罪，对二元期权网络平台进行立案查处。
At present, local public security authorities have opened a criminal investigation into the binary network platform for fraud.
实际上，二元期权始终存在。
In practice, binary options always exist.
杨慧表示，早在2014年，她就曾经在网上看到过有关比特币的二元期权网站。直到现在，依旧可以找到不少类似Bicbank、OptionYes这样的二元期权网站。
Yang Hui said that she had seen binary websites about Bitcoin as early as 2014. Until now, several binary websites like Bicbank, OptionYes could still be found.
“你会发现一个有趣的现象：在股票领域，被监管叫停过的模式，在数字货币领域，绝对是爆火的。”河源称，这个逻辑也极为简单——一般监管叫停的，都是暴利模式。
“You'll find an interesting phenomenon: in the area of stocks, the regulated mode of stoppage, and in the field of digital money, it's absolutely explosive.” The river source says that this logic is also extremely simple — the usual regulatory mode of stoppage, is all violent.
而数字货币还是法外之地，可以直接挪移过来。
03 问题重重
03 & nbsp; has a lot of problems
那么问题来了，之前股市的金融工具，真的可以一成不变地拿到币圈吗？
So the question is, is it true that the financial instruments of the previous stock market can get the coin ring in any way?
“天地间没有两个彼此完全相同的东西。”德国哲学家布莱尼茨曾经这样说过。
"There are no two identical things in the heavens and the earth." German philosopher Brenitz once said that.
这句话，恰好适用于股市和数字货币市场目前的状态。
The phrase
做了类似“股吧”社区的黄鑫，最近颇为困扰。
He's done some sort of “share bar” community, and he's been in trouble lately.
他发现，不论是论坛，还是拉的社群中，都聚集着大量项目方雇佣的水军。
He found that there were a large number of marines employed by the project parties, both in the forum and in the Ra community.
他们无所不用其极地灌水，让论坛和社群，全部都是“奶”声，“根本没法看”。
They pour water from the poles, so that the forums and communities are all “milk” and “can't see”.
另一方面，对于竞争对手，项目方也会雇佣水军泼脏水，结果就导致论坛和社群里，一片骂声。
On the other hand, in the case of competitors, the project party also hires marines to pour dirty water, resulting in verbal abuse in forums and communities.
而和股票市场不同的是，现在炒币人群不多，大家都是靠着所谓的“信仰”炒币，几个人的灌水和谩骂，真的可能影响币价。
In contrast to the stock market, where there are not many people now, where we all rely on so-called “beliefs”, water and verbal abuse by a few people can really affect the price of money.
这是因为，股票市场和数字货币市场，还是有本质的区别。
because there is still a fundamental difference between stock markets and digital money markets.
首先，股票市场有监管强干预，并形成了一套完整的规则和公开机制。
starts with strong regulatory intervention in stock markets and creates a complete set of rules and disclosure mechanisms.
比如，每季度发布上市公司财报，公司重大变动需要公示等。
For example, quarterly financial statements of listed companies are issued, and major changes in companies require publicity.
但对于数字货币领域来说，这些机制全部是空白。
However, for the digital currency area, these mechanisms are all blank.
其次，股票市场巨大，目前，全球股票市场的总市值高达69万亿，光是中国的炒股人群，就达到1.8亿。
Second, the stock market is huge. At present, the total market value of the global stock market is 69 trillion, and the stock market in China alone is 180 million.
而对于数字货币来说，全球总市值只有万亿，炒币人群不过3000万。
For digital currencies, the total global market value is only trillion, and the population is only 30 million.
数字货币市场，实在连股市的零头都不到。
The digital money market does not even have a single stock market.
这就决定了这个市场目前存量不足，获客很难。
This determines that the market is currently understocked and difficult to reach.
黄鑫称，他们很多小币种的交流区，一篇帖子都没有，“币圈用户人数太少，太分散了”。
According to Huang Yiu, they had many small currency exchange areas, none of which had been posted, “the number of users of the currency circle is too small, too scattered”.
最关键的一点是，因为人群不多，庄家可以轻易坐庄。
The most important point is that because there are few people, the realtor can sit down easily.
比如，一个小币种的总市值只有一个亿，那么只要有上千万，就基本可以控制这个盘子。
, for example, the total market value of a small currency is only one billion dollars, so if there are millions of dollars, you can basically control the plate.
这是一片利益汹涌的法外之地，项目方为了拉升币价，“无所不用其极”。
This is an extraneous place where the project party “does everything it can” to raise the price of the currency.
另外，股票应用和币圈应用，还是有本质的区别。
In addition, there is a fundamental difference between stock applications and currency circles applications.
后者，大多会发币。
The latter, mostly in the form of coins.
它们并不甘心只是作为工具和应用，最终也想用区块链的方式来玩。
They do not want to be used only as tools and applications, and eventually they want to play in the form of block chains.
对于应用来说，币的价值到底有多大，也是一个需要探讨的话题。
The exact value of the currency for the application is also a subject that needs to be explored.
在绝大多数场景中，币的价值不大，和积分体系，并无区别。
does not differ in most scenarios from the value of the currency and the system of points.
在秦煌看来，如果币圈想要平稳发展，通过社区做好投资者教育，可能会是最好的出路。
In Qin’s view, the best way forward is possible if the currency circle is to develop smoothly and to educate investors through the community.
对比股市来看，现在币圈可能更需要的是一个综合性的资讯+社区型的平台。
Compared to the stock market, the currency circle may now need a comprehensive information-plus community-based platform.
它可以将各个发行方接入到平台中，把独立的社群转化成“股吧”一类的讨论区。
It can connect issuers to the platform and transform independent communities into discussion areas such as “equity bar”.
“我认为，现在这个阶段，如果可以出现一个数字货币圈的‘雪球’‘东方财富网’，让币圈更加透明、门槛更低，对于整个圈子都是好事。”秦煌说。
“I think it would be good for the whole circle at this stage if there were to be a digital currency ring, the `Snowball' `Fortune Network of the East', which would make the currency more transparent and lower threshold.
也有业内人士试过将智能荐股，或者类似同花顺的股票软件照搬到币圈。
has also tried to move smart shares, or shares-like software, to currency circles.
但是为什么市场上依旧没有看见这一类应用？
But why is this kind of application still missing in the market?
“原因很简单，现在数字货币的话语权掌握在交易所手里，而且一个币可能出现在多个交易所里，各个交易所的币价波动又会随时有差别，导致这些模式很难打通。”有业内人士如此评价。
“The simple reason is that the voice of digital money is now in the hands of the exchange, that a currency may appear on multiple exchanges, and that exchange price fluctuations can vary from time to time, making these models difficult to work out.” This is how people in the industry evaluate them.
但大家对未来依然充满了期许。
but everyone still has a promise for the future.
“如果说数字货币市场有一天可以规范，那肯定是因为传统资本中的巨头杀了进来。”马铭说，“如果能有传统资本依托自身实体业务来发币，它可能才是真正有意义的数字货币。”
“If the digital money market can be regulated one day, it must be because the giants of traditional capital have been killed.” Marx said, “If there is traditional capital that relies on its own real business for money, it may be the real digital currency.”
旧世界正在往新世界过渡，但却不是一帆风顺。
The old world is on its way to a new world, but it is not a smooth one.
两个世界表面相似，内部却又千差万别。
The two worlds appear to be alike, but very different from each other.
面对规则缺失的新世界，制定规则、教育市场，可能会更好地抵达下一站。
In the face of a new world in which rules are missing, rules and education markets may be better placed to reach the next stop.
(应受访者的要求，文中部分人名为化名 )
(As requested by the interviewer, some of them are named aliases) & nbsp;
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