Cboe比特币期货首秀 近月合约已两次熔断

　　Cboe比特币期货近月合约（XBT/F8，2018年1月份合约）与BTC/USD走势。（图片来源：CNBC，新浪财经）

Cboebitcoin Futures Recent Monthly Contract (XBT/F8, January 2018) with BTC/USD.

　　Cboe比特币期货（XBT）美东时间10日（周日）18：00（北京时间周一7：00）正式上市交易。

Cboebitcoin Futures (XBT) is officially listed on Monday at 7:00 p.m. on Sunday at 10 p.m. Eastern U.S. Time.

　　XBT的2018年1月份合约（XBT/F8）（http://t.cn/RT4r8ai ）开于15460美元，在开盘后的前半小时内，该合约最低下探至15420美元，此后逐渐走高，截至北京时间中午12：00，报18，450美元。较Cboe公布的上一个交易日结算价15460美元涨19.34%，累积成交约2000手，成交量稀疏，盘口差价较大，达到100美元左右。

XBT's January 2018 contract (XBT/F8) (http://t.cn/RT4r8ai) was opened at $15460. During the first half-hour after opening, the contract was detected at a minimum of $15420 and was gradually elevated to $18,450 as at 12 noon Beijing time. The settlement price of $15460 was increased by 19.34 per cent compared to Cboe's last trade date, with a cumulative contract of approximately 2,000 handouts, with a thin balance and a larger discount price of around $100.

　　在比特币期货上市前，过去三个月，现货市场（BTC）的日收益率年化标准差大约为90%，加密货币媒体CoinDesk的数据显示，12月份以来比特币累计涨幅超过60%。这可能是迄今为止价格变动最为剧烈的公开可交易金融资产。

In the past three months, before Bitcoin futures were listed, the daily rate of return for the spot market (BTC) had been about 90% annualized, and data from the encrypted currency media CoinDesk showed a cumulative increase of more than 60% since December. This is probably the most dramatic change in prices to date in open tradable financial assets.

　　据Cboe官方网站更新后的比特币期货说明（http://t.cn/RjDUK7X ），交易所只对临近到期的合约设定限价及熔断规则，即最优买入报价（best bid）或最优卖出报价（best ask）超过或低于上一交易日结算价10%将暂停交易2分钟，超过或低于20%则暂停交易5分钟。

According to the updated Bitcoin Futures Statement (http://t.cn/RjDUK7X) on the Cboe official website, the exchange only sets price limits and smelting rules for contracts approaching maturity, i.e. the best bid (best bit) or the best offer (best ask) exceeds or is less than 10 per cent of the settlement price on the previous transaction date, will suspend the transaction for a period of two minutes, or more than or less than 20 per cent, for a period of five minutes.

　　根据这一规则，截至北京时间12：00，前述近月合约盘中曾升破20%，至少经历两次暂停交易（超过10%暂停2分钟、超过20%暂停5分钟）。

According to this rule, up to 1200 Beijing time, 20 per cent of the contracts for the previous month had been broken and at least two suspensions had been made (more than 10 per cent for two minutes and more than 20 per cent for five minutes).

　　Cboe的比特币期货每手对应一个比特币，结算参考价以旗下公司Gemini交易所交易日美东时间16：00的官方拍卖价（Gemini Exchange Auction price）为依据，合约初始保证金比例为30%。但据路透报道，交易经纪商盈透（IBKR）计划为其客户提供比特币期货交易服务，对于做空的客户保证金至少要求50%。

Cboe’s bitcoin futures correspond to one bitcoins per hand, and the settlement reference price is based on the official auction price of the Gemini Exchange Exchange at 16:00 p.m. Time for trading with the United States and the United States. However, Reuters reports that the trading broker (IBKR) plans to provide its customers with a Bitcoin futures trading service, requiring at least 50 per cent of the empty customer bond.

　　现货市场价格波动剧烈，市场参与者以创业者及个人投资者为主，较为频繁的网络失窃事件，更为重要的是缺乏监管，都导致机构投资者缺乏积极参与意愿。

The volatility of spot market prices, the predominance of entrepreneurs and individual investors among market participants, the more frequent incidents of network theft and, more importantly, the lack of regulation have led to a lack of willingness on the part of institutional investors to participate actively.

　　大的经纪商嘉信（SCHW）、TD Ameritrade（AMTD）都曾表示不会在比特币期货上市首日支持交易。摩根大通(105.93, 1.31, 1.25%)（JPM）也不会马上为客户提供比特币交易清算服务。在比特币期货上市前夕，大的银行联合组织美国期货协会（FIA）提出反对意见，认为美国金融体系并未为比特币期货的推出做好准备，无法应对价格飙升的过程中产生的剧烈波动。

Neither does Morgan Chase (105.93, 1.31, 1.25%) (JPM) provide immediate settlement services to customers for Bitcoin transactions. On the eve of Bitcoin futures listing, the large banking coalition, the American Futures Association (FIA), raised objections that the United States financial system was not prepared for the introduction of Bitcoin futures and could not cope with the volatility of the price boom.

　　XBT近月合约的到期时间为2018年1月17日。按照现货市场连续交易的规则，当前距离该合约到期还有37个交易日。单纯从统计意义上看，假设比特币现货日收益率时间序列年化波动率标准差为90%，且服从标准正态分布，比特币有的68%概率在该期货合约到期日处于15380美元~18468美元价格区间。

XBT’s recent monthly contract expires on 17 January 2018. According to the rules for ongoing transactions in the spot market, there are currently 37 trading days before the contract expires.

　　在现货市场，据CoinMarketCap网站数据，截至北京时间12：18，比特币报16924.8美元，总市值达2832亿美元，过去24小时可统计的总成交量为144亿美元。

On the spot market, according to the CoinMarketCap website, as of Beijing time $12:18, Bitcoin reported $16,924.8 with a total market value of $283.2 billion and a total volume of $14.4 billion available for the past 24 hours.

　　目前，投资者如果希望将部分资产暴露于比特币，可以通过一些ETF实现。

Currently, investors can do so through some ETFs if they wish to expose some of their assets to Bitcoin.

　　ARK Web x.0 ETF （ARKW）、ARK Innovation ETF（ARKK）都属于这类产品，它们的比特币资产暴露主要通过持有目前在OTC市场交易的比特币投资信托（GBTC）实现。

ARK Web x.0 ETF (ARKW), ARK Innovation ETF (ARKKKK) are all of these products, and their exposure to bitcoin assets is mainly achieved by holding the Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) which is currently traded on the OTC market.

　　但投资者应特别关注比特币投资信托（GBTC）这一工具的溢价情况。一旦比特币ETF获批上市，GBTC可能面临估值修复，这将影响ARKW、ARKK等产品。

But investors should pay particular attention to the premium of the Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) as a tool. Once the Bitcoin ETF is approved for listing, the GBTC may face valuation restoration, which will affect products such as ARKW, ARKKK, etc.

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