新年第一笔投资，你会选茅台还是比特币？

　　文/夏宾

/Shabin

　　新年第一个“红包”来了！

The first red bag of the New Year is here!

　　A股首个交易日全线飘红，沪指最终站上3500点，为2018年1月以来首次，创业板指收涨近3.8%，实现开门红。

For the first time, the A share, which is full-time red, refers to the final stop of 3,500 points, and for the first time since January 2018, the start-up board has increased by nearly 3.8 per cent and has become open-door red.

　　让大家更为关注的还有茅台在盘中首次涨破了2000元大关。尽管最后茅台收盘微跌，但仍然不妨碍A股“耍酒疯”。

More attention is being paid to the fact that for the first time, the huts have broken the 2,000-dollar mark. Despite the last small drop, the A shares are still "drinking with alcohol."

　　当天白酒板块表现优异，酒鬼酒、水井坊、老白干酒纷纷涨停，泸州老窖、洋河股份、口子窖也收获了5%左右的涨幅。

On the same day, the white slabs performed excellently, with drunks, wells, old and dry wines sprung up and sprung about 5 per cent of the increase in the old cellars in Lianzhou, the shares in the river and the mouth cellars.

　　加上近期比特币走出的疯涨行情，有人已经喊出，“比特币是币圈中的茅台，茅台是A股里的比特币。”

Adding to the madness of the recent departure of Bitcoin, it has been called, "Bitcoin is the bottom of the currency circle and the bottom is the bitcoin of the A share."

　　如果你有足够的钱，新年的第一笔投资，会选茅台还是比特币？

If you had enough money, the first investment in New Year's, would you choose the poo or the bitcoin?

　　白酒和虚拟货币“起飞”

White wine and virtual currency take-off

　　如果有如果，回到2020年1月初，不管买茅台还是比特币，拿到现在你都能赚到盆满钵满。

If you go back to the beginning of January 2020, you can make a full fortune now, whether you buy a hut or a bitcoin.

　　彼时茅台股价1130元，而比特币也才7000多美元。过去一年，茅台整体涨幅接近一倍，而比特币也涨超300%。

The price is $1130, while Bitcoin is just over $7,000. Over the past year, the total has nearly doubled, while Bitcoin has risen by more than 300%.

　　据万得数据，2020年前三季度，贵州茅台净利润达到358.5亿元，同比增长9.6%。销售净利率为53.34%，达到自2012年以来历史最高值。

In the first three quarters of 2020, according to figures from Mandalay, the net profit in Kotai, Guizhou, amounted to $35.85 billion, an increase of 9.6 per cent over the same period, and the net interest rate on sales was 53.34 per cent, the highest ever since 2012.

　　整体来看，2020年A股白酒板块以119.99%的涨幅傲视全市场，超过生物疫苗、农业种植、光刻胶等市场热门板块。

Overall, in 2020, the A share of white wine plate looked up to the market with an increase of 119.9 per cent, surpassing market hot spots such as biovaccine, agricultural cultivation, light gel, etc.

　　但茅台并非白酒板块中表现最为优异的个股，老白干酒和酒鬼酒在过去一年涨幅都超过两倍。

However, the most outstanding shares in the white plate are not in the huts, and both the old dry and the drunks have increased more than twice as much in the past year.

　　而在虚拟货币市场上，比特币近日冲高突破34000万美元。整体市值较大的其他虚拟货币，比如以太坊、莱特币同样涨势凶猛，以太坊的涨幅更是接近惊人的九倍之多。

In the virtual currency market, bitcoin has recently gone up by $340 million. Other virtual currencies with a larger market value, such as the Etherton and the Leiter, have also risen dramatically, and the Ethercopic rise is nearly ninefold higher.

　　大涨行情有什么逻辑？

What's the logic of strong?

　　疫情对2020年中国消费整体产生了一定不利影响，但白酒行业却“脱颖而出”。

The epidemic had a certain negative impact on China's consumption as a whole in 2020, but the white wine industry was “out of the blue”.

　　银河证券认为，高端酒的品牌、品质优势及大众白酒对价格带的有效定位，利好品牌白酒消费需求持续恢复、增长。看好白酒赛道一线白酒价值，改善明显的成长性个股。

Galaxy securities argue that the branding of high-end wine, quality advantages, and the effective positioning of popular white wine on the price belt have allowed demand for branded white wine to recover and grow. Consider the white wine value of the track and improve the apparent growth of the shares.

　　茅台最新发布的2020年全年业绩预告显示，预计2020年，实现营业总收入977亿元左右，同比增长10%左右，其中本公司全资子公司贵州茅台酱香酒营销有限公司预计实现营业总收入94亿元左右；预计实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润455亿元左右，同比增长10%左右。

The most recent year-round performance forecast for 2020 in Maotai shows that total operating income is expected to be about $97.7 billion in 2020, an increase of about 10 per cent in the same year, of which the company's wholly-owned subsidiary, Guo Dai Wine Marketing Co. Ltd., is expected to achieve total operating income of around $9.4 billion; and the net profit attributable to shareholders in listed companies is expected to be about $45.5 billion, an increase of around 10 per cent in the same year.

　　中金公司方面表示，上调贵州茅台目标价至2739元人民币，2021年增长有望提速，看好公司长期成长潜力及业绩确定性。作为高端龙头，公司拥有行业强定价权，未来有望继续分享中国高端消费扩容。

According to China’s company, China’s target price has been raised up to RMB 2739 in Guizhou, and growth is expected to accelerate in 2021, depending on the company’s long-term growth potential and firm’s performance. As a high-end leader, the company has strong pricing power in the industry, and it is expected to continue to share in the expansion of China’s high-end consumption in the future.

　　对于比特币的大涨原因，中新社国是直通车采访多位行业人士，总结出两个关键点。

For the reasons for the surge in Bitcoin, the CNS was a direct bus to interview a number of practitioners, summarizing two key points.

　　一是机构投资者入场。今年下半年以来，诸如美国保险巨头万通人寿保险公司、商业分析公司MicroStrategy等机构纷纷买入比特币，而在线支付巨头PayPal、新加坡最大的商业银行星展银行也纷纷宣布将推出加密货币支付服务。

The first is the entry of institutional investors. Since the second half of this year, agencies such as the American Insurance giant, the Manipula Life Insurance Corporation, and the business analysis company, MicroStrategy, have been buying into Bitcoin, while online payments to the giant PayPal, Singapore’s largest commercial bank, Star show, have announced the introduction of an encrypted money payment service.

　　据Bitcoin Treasuries数据显示，目前超过69亿美元的比特币由上市公司持有。由此带来了比特币市场的繁荣。

According to Bitcoin Treasuries, more than $6.9 billion in bitcoins are currently held by listed companies. This has led to a boom in the Bitcoin market.

　　二是全球货币大放水。疫情发生后，为了刺激全球经济，各国央行大规模释放流动性，这种“开闸放水”的环境使全球市场处于货币宽松周期内，资金流动性大幅提升与同时增长的避险需求一起助推了比特币大涨。

The second is the global currency boom. After the outbreak, central banks released liquidity on a massive scale in order to stimulate the global economy, an environment of “opening up water” that put global markets in a monetary easing cycle, and a dramatic increase in liquidity, coupled with the need for simultaneous growth in risk avoidance, helped to boost bitcoins.

　　投资应该选哪个？

Which is the choice for the strong investment?

　　成年人的世界一般不做选择，因为要先摸摸口袋看有没有资格。

The adult world does not generally choose because it first touches its pockets to see if it is qualified.

　　面对上面的选择题，相信不少人的答案是：如果有能力，茅台和比特币我都要……现在就缺能力！

Faced with the question of choice above, it is believed that the answer for many is that if I had the ability, I would have had the ability to do so and I would have had the ability to do so now!

　　可惜，此时不管是入局茅台还是比特币，门槛都在20万元人民币左右。

Unfortunately, the threshold is around RMB 200,000 at this point in time, whether it is at the bottom of the table or in Bitcoin.

　　事实上，无论是茅台还是比特币，任何一笔投资都必须放弃赌徒心态、追涨杀跌。

Indeed, any investment, whether at the hut or Bitcoin, must give up the gamblers' mentality, chase and fall.

　　一年前，茅台只有1130元的时候，你会坚定地相信今天它能涨破2000元吗？

A year ago, when Mao was at $1130, would you firmly believe that today it would rise by $2,000?

　　这中间，茅台跌到仅有960元的时候，是否会想要忍痛割肉离场？

In the middle of this, do you want to get rid of the meat when the mound falls to just $960?

　　换做比特币，今年的最低点仅有4900美元，你心里又会如何煎熬？

For bitcoin, this year's minimum is only $4,900. How do you suffer?

　　对外经贸大学公共政策研究所首席研究员苏培科接受国是直通车采访时，说过这样一番话：不研究比特币的人最好不要参与，这是一个类似“接力棒游戏”，比特币背后的炒作团队希望更多的人成为“接棒者”，这样他们才能赚到更多。

In a direct traffic interview, the recipient country of Soupeco, the chief researcher at the Institute of Public Policy of the University of Foreign Economics and Trade, said that it would be better for those who did not study Bitcoin not to participate, a sort of “wiring stick game”, and that the team behind Bitcoin wanted more people to be “cuffers” so that they could earn more.

　　他建议，在新的一年里应更多关注股权投资，尤其是二级市场，普通投资者可通过专业基金或机构参与其中。中国资本市场近两年出现了加速改革的势头，如推行注册制、最严退市制度落地等，未来上市公司的质量会越来越高，而对于股票的选择，要围绕在中国处于核心资产的公司进行布局。

He suggested that in the new year more attention should be given to equity investment, especially in secondary markets, where ordinary investors could participate through professional funds or institutions. China’s capital markets have gained momentum over the past two years to accelerate reforms, such as registration and the landing of the most heavily de-marketed systems, and the quality of future listed companies will increase, while stock selection will be centred around companies with core assets in China.

　　当然，他也没有告诉我们，选择茅台就一定能赚。

And, of course, he didn't tell us that choosing a hut would make a profit.

　　市场由投资者构成，其表现也都由投资者决定。面临投资抉择，大部分人都有从众和抱团心理，已经树立起来的、具有标志性的“旗帜”产品会让人更有安全感，这会导致投资者蜂拥而入的现象，就像今天的茅台和比特币，但旗帜也有折断或是倒下的风险。

The market is made up of investors whose performance is also determined by them. In the face of investment choices, most people have a sense of openness and contemplation, and the branded “flag” products that have been built offer greater security, which can lead to a crowd of investors, like today’s huts and bitcoin, but the flag is also at risk of breaking or falling.

　　就在写这篇稿子的时候，下午6点多，比特币已经从日内高点34000美元上方，跌入到了28000多美元。

At the time of writing, at around 6 p.m., Bitcoin had fallen from over $34,000 in the day to over $28,000.

　　赚钱的故事好听，倾家荡产的人也不少。入市需谨慎，投资有风险，在没有全面研究和足够风险预期的情况下，做到不盲从和长期主义才是在市场上能存活下来的最好方法。

The story of making money is good, and there are a lot of people who go to the market. Markets need to be careful, investments risky, and in the absence of comprehensive research and adequate risk expectations, not blindness and long-termism are the best ways to survive in the market.

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