当年投资1元，如今收获1080万！比特币市值能买下22个云南白药

　　梁中华认为，维系货币信仰最关键的一点就是“稀缺性”。贝壳在原始社会的时候也曾被当做货币来使用，那是因为人们发现一枚贝壳也需要投入大量的劳动时间的，贝壳是稀缺的，这决定了这些贝壳是有内在价值的。但如果人类到了海边，发现遍地是无穷无尽的贝壳的时候，贝壳也变得一文不值，人们开始其它稀缺的商品作为货币来使用。

China believes that one of the most critical aspects of the monetary faith that sustains it is “difficultness.” Shells were used as money when they were in the original society, because it was discovered that a shell also required a lot of labor time, and that shells were scarce, which determined that they were of intrinsic value. When humans reached the sea, they became worthless, and others were used as money.

　　他在研究报告中强调，当纸币的背后有价值对应的时候，人们愿意持有纸币，当纸币被无限制的印刷，背后价值大幅缩水的时候，人们就会寻找新的商品来实现货币的功能。这就是只要货币一超发，稀缺资产就上涨的一个非常重要的原因。从这个意义上来说，货币超发的时候，买黄金、茅台、核心股票、核心房产，都是同样一个逻辑，就是一个重新寻找稀缺性的过程。

In his study, he stressed that when there's value behind a banknote, people are willing to hold it, and when it's printed indefinitely, and the value behind it shrinks dramatically, people look for new goods to achieve the function of the currency. That is a very important reason why scarce assets rise as soon as the currency exceeds. In this sense, when the currency overscrams,

　　比特币的稀缺性是其区别于纸币、郁金香、贝壳币的主要特点。不同于后三种的资产可以被无限印刷和生产，比特币总计只有2100万个，且不可增加。

The scarcity of bitcoins is a major feature that distinguishes them from banknotes, tulips, and shellfish. Unlike the latter three, assets can be printed and produced indefinitely, with a total of only 21 million bitcoins, which cannot be increased.

　　据券商中国，实际上，由于忘记密码等其他因素，在市场里面流通的比特币数量远远低于2100万个。

According to the voucher dealer China, the number of bitcoins circulating in the market is, in fact, well below 21 million, owing to the forgetting of other factors, such as passwords.

　　一份研究数据也指出，在2012年1月份以来，大约240万个比特币一直未处于流动状态，这些币被认为是估计丢失的比特币数量的下限。此外，大约500万比特币在过去3年一直未处于流动状态，这被认为是估计丢失的比特币数量的上限。

One study also noted that, since January 2012, some 2.4 million bitcoins had not been in circulation, and that they were considered to be the lower limit of the estimated lost bitcoins. Moreover, about 5 million bitcoins had not been in circulation for the last three years, which was considered the upper limit of the estimated lost bitcoins.

　　也就是说，已丢失的比特币数量预计为最低240万个，最多500万个，这些丢失的比特币刺激了稀缺性、提高了市场的预期，在股票市场，这相当于缩股。

In other words, the number of lost bitcoins is expected to be a minimum of 2.4 million and a maximum of 5 million, and the lost bitcoins stimulate scarcity and raise market expectations.

　　机构成本轮比特币大涨推手

花旗银行：目标价30万美元！

“2021年的特斯拉”，未来上涨空间高达数倍，也有分析师分别给出74000美元、10万美元的超高目标价，花旗银行给出的目标价甚至高达30万美元。

Some analysts predicted that bitcoin could be , with many times the scope for future increases, while others offered over-target prices of $74,000, $100,000 and even $300,000 for Citibank.

　　对于比特币后市走向，资深加密交易员Peter Brandt表示，尽管比特币在短短9个月内从3月份的4000美元飙升至20000美元以上，但涨势尚未结束，有可能在当前周期内飙升至10万美元。他建议投资者将比特币的投资仓位从10%提高到20%。

In the case of the post-bitcoin direction, Peter Brandt, a senior encryption trader, said that although Bitcoin jumped from US$ 4,000 in March to more than US$ 20,000 in just nine months, the upturn has not yet ended, and is likely to rise to US$ 100,000 in the current cycle. He suggested that investors raise Bitcoin’s investment warehouse from 10% to 20%.

　　斯坦福大学胡佛研究所的高级研究员Niall Ferguson指出：“几乎每个月都会有主流投资界的一些重要人物表示‘将认真对待比特币’，随着人们将比特币作为一种新的资产形式在多元化的投资组合中占有重要地位，比特币仍有很大的上升空间。”

As Niall Ferguson, a senior researcher at the Hoover Institute of Stanford University, noted: “There are important figures in the mainstream investment community who say `will take bitcoin seriously' almost every month, and there is still much room for it to rise as people take bitcoin as a new form of asset and take it into account in a diversified portfolio.”

　　有业内人士分析指出，尽管现在看来比特币有继续创新高的趋势，但是回顾全年比特币的走势，加密数字货币市场仍有巨大风险。个人投资者在投资加密货币之前，应该考虑自己的风险承受能力，保持理性，不要盲目追多。