312、519、122三大崩盘实战复盘

21、22接连两天的抛售高潮，让大饼（BTC）从43k直接下了一个台阶来到了34k一线。43k到34k，价格水平又下降了21%。若从去年11月初的历史新高69k算起，短短两个多月，已经跌去了50.7%，妥妥的腰斩。

After two days of high sales, BTC went down from 43k to 34k. Price levels fell by 21% from 43k to 34k. If the historical high of 69k at the beginning of last November, it would have fallen by 50.7% in just over two months.

对比一下去年519，从历史新高65k，最低下跌到29k，最大回撤-55%。再看一下2020年312，从局部高点10k，最低跌至3.8k，最大回撤-62%。这一次去杠杆，已经达到了类似的深度。

Compared to last year's 519, it fell from an historical height of 65k, down to 29k, down to a maximum withdrawal - 55%. And then to 312, down from a local height of 10k, down to 3.8k, up to a maximum retreat of 62%. This time, deleveraging has reached a similar depth.

34k的大饼价格已经是梦回519了。在那个崩盘季的底部整理区间，中枢价格水平差不多就是这个位置。如果谁说自己错过了2021年1月份的回撤上车机会，那么大饼519又给了机会。如果谁说自己错过了2021年519崩盘季底部加仓的机会，那么大饼在2022年1月份，也就是现在的当下，再一次给了大家机会。

The price of 34k is already in the dream of 519. At the bottom of the fall season, the central price level is almost the same. If anyone says he missed the opportunity to pull back in January 2021, then 519 gives him another chance. If he says he missed the opportunity to load up the bottom of the 519 fall in 2021, then the big one gave you another chance in January 2022, now.

我们经常说，事不过三。大饼一而再，再而三地给机会上车，可是当机会真的来临时，当初的豪言壮语却已抛却九霄云外。不敢、不愿、不能坚持八字诀逢跌加仓。“不敢”是被断崖式下跌带来的恐惧所支配，“不愿”是已经对大饼、对市场已经失去了信心，“不能”则是由于子弹已经打光，或者场外有钱但是在极端行情下OTC市场溢价过高无法入金，甚至于像当年312行情时OTC市场短暂停摆。

We often say that there is no more than three things. The big pies, once and for all, give us a chance to get in the car, but when the opportunity really comes, the rhetoric of the moment has been thrown out.

复盘一下2020年312、2021年519，和今年开年122这三场崩盘。

A review of the three crashes, 312 in 2020, 519 in 2021 and 122 this year.

2020年312的时候我只是八字诀囤大饼，所以并没有觉得有多么腥风血雨。回顾了一下当时的实盘操作记录，我大概在5-6k的时候就打光了子弹。当时虽然场外有备用金，但是在崩溃中OTC市场完全歇业，无法入金。很多人眼睁睁看着自己的杠杆被血洗爆仓。

By 312 in 2020, I was just hoarding cakes on an eight-word machine, so I didn't feel that there was much blood in it. Looking back at the records, I shot them all up at about 5-6k. The OTC market was completely out of business during the crash.

在312的

At 312.

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