2018年，比特币的黄金时代已经过去？

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比特币（BitCoin）

bitcoin

        2009年，不受央行和任何金融机构控制的比特币诞生。该“电子货币”最初来源于“中本聪”（Satoshi Nakamoto）的设想。比特币由计算机生成的一串串复杂代码组成。

& nbsp; & nbsp;       & nbsp; & nbsp; 2009: Bitcoin was born outside the control of central banks and any financial institution. This “ electronic currency & & rdquao; originally from “ middle-class & rdquo; Satoshi Nakamoto. Bitco is made up of a series of complex codes generated by computers.

       新比特币通过预设的程序制造，随着总量增加，新币制造的速度减慢，直到2140年将达到2100万个的总量上限。目前可供流通的比特币总量大约已有1680万个（数字来源：coinmarketcap.com）。

& nbsp; & nbsp;         & nbsp; & nbsp; New Bitcoins are manufactured through predefined procedures and as totals increase, the rate of manufacture of the new coins slows down until 21 million caps are reached in 2140. The total amount of bitcoin currently available for circulation is about 16.8 million (digital source: coinmarkcap.com).

       目前，类似的电子货币百花齐放，如莱特币、瑞波币、点点币、大地币、域名币、以太坊等等，但都是基于比特币的区块链技术。

& nbsp; & nbsp;         & nbsp; & nbsp; currently, similar electronic currencies such as Lettcoin, Ripoco, dome, landcoin, domain currency, Etheria etc. are based on bitcoin chain technology.

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政策和监管：越发吃紧

       2017年9月30日，国内第一家比特币交易平台——比特币中国（BTCChina）就关闭了所有交易功能，之后又停止了提现/提币业务，并针对未提现的数字资产收取管理费用。截至2018年1月3日，该网站还是只有全面停止网站登陆和在线提现服务的公告。

& nbsp;             — — — &bitcoin China (BTCchina) closed off all trading functions on 30 September 2017 and then stopped cash withdrawal/loaning operations and charged administrative fees for undisclosed digital assets.

       成立于2011年6月的比特币中国在全球的比特币领域都拥有较高的信誉度。其交易量曾经超越世界前两大平台——Mt. Gox 和BitStamp，成为全球最大比特币交易平台，单日最高交易量曾接近9万比特币，最高日交易额超过2亿元。

& nbsp;             and Bitcoin China, established in June 2011, has a high level of credibility in the world’s bitcoin field. Its trading volumes have exceeded the world’s two former platforms — — — Mt. Gox and BitStamp as the world’s largest bitcoins trading platform, with a single-day maximum trade volume of nearly 90,000 bitcoins and a maximum of 200 million yuan.

       就在同一时期，国内ICO平台ICOINFO和ICOAGE也关闭了ICO业务，后者甚至在去年12月31日彻底关闭了网站。而这一切，都源于相关政策的紧缩。2017年9月4日，央行等七部委曾联合发布公告，紧急叫停ICO交易（各类代币发行融资活动），并关闭了国内的加密数字货币交易所，监管力度可谓空前。

& nbsp; & nbsp;         and & nbsp; just the same period, the national ICO platform ICOINFO and ICOAGE closed down their ICO operations, even on 31 December last year. All of this was due to the tightening of policies. On 4 September 2017, seven ministries, including the Central Bank, issued a joint announcement calling off the ICO transaction (financing activities for the issuance of various currencies) and closing the country’s encrypted digital currency exchange, with unprecedented levels of regulation.

       虽然比特币的币值随之受到重挫，但此后中国比特币“矿工”及交易者的热情似乎并未受到真正的打击。2017年，比特币一度从年初的900美元上下 ，涨到年末13880.00美元（数据来源：BitStamp），涨幅约15倍，甚至在12月中旬一度逼近20000美元大关。

& nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & & nbsp; & Bitcoin & & ldquo; Miners & & rdquo; and traders’ enthusiasm did not seem to have been really hit. In 2017, Bitcoin rose from US$ 900 at the beginning of the year to US$ 138.800 at the end of the year (data source: BitStamp), which increased about 15 times, even close to US$ 20,000 in mid-December.

 

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挖矿、矿工

miner, miner

       比特币依赖P2P网络存在，只能通过复杂的数学算法产生。在数字世界里，生产这种虚拟货币的过程，就被称之为“挖矿”。而在“矿池”里“挖矿”的就是“矿工”了。

& nbsp; & nbsp;           Bitcoin is dependent on the P2P network and can only be produced through complex mathematical algorithms. In the digital world, the process of producing this virtual currency is called &ldquao; mining & rdquao; in &ldquao; in &ldquao; in &ldquao; in &ldquao; in &rdquao; in &rdquao.

       早期的“挖矿”较简单，但随着比特币的发展，根据其供应机制，普通人想要挖到比特币越来越难。“矿机”装备竞赛愈演愈烈，挖掘难度越来越大，只有拥有极高的算力才能勉强开采到。不仅如此，“挖矿”还需要消耗大量电力及人力。

& nbsp;             early & &ldquao; mine mining & rdquao; simpler, but as Bitcoin develops, ordinary people are increasingly trying to dig bitco. & ldquo; miner & rdquao; equipment competitions are getting stronger and harder and harder to dig, only with very high computing power.

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区块及算力分布：中国领先

       下面这张来自coin.dance的图表显示，最近一周（数据取自2018.1.17.），矿池中区块数量最多的前4名均来自中国。

& nbsp; & nbsp;       & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; the following chart from coin.dance shows that the top four of the largest number of blocks in a pond came from China during the last week (data taken from 2018.1.17.).

• BTC.com - 23.2%

       BTC.com是个公共矿池，创业团队成员来自于国内一线互联网公司。

& nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; BTC.com is a public mine pool with members of an entrepreneurial team from a front-line Internet company in the country.

• AntPool - 20.6%

       蚂蚁矿池位于比特大陆旗下，于2014年11月12日推出的矿池。

& nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; ant ponds are under the flag of the Bit continent and were launched on 12 November 2014.

• ViaBTC - 11.3%

       2017年9月底完成人民币和数字货币资产的清退工作，停止交易。今年1月，该矿池大幅提升了客户管理费。

& nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & & nbsp; completed the clearing of renminbi and digital currency assets and stopped trading at the end of September 2017. In January this year, the pond significantly increased the customer management fee.

• BTC.Top - 11%

       莱比特矿池是私人矿池，不能加入。

& nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; Lebitt is a private pool and cannot be included.

       前4家的中国矿池区块数加起来，总共占到全球的66.1%，约2/3。而从第5名之后，就都是区块数低于11%的矿池了。

& nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp;     & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; together, the top four Chinese deposits together accounted for 66.1% or about 2/3 of the global total.

       另外，从区块网的（www.qukuai.com）算力分布图上看，最近一周（数据取自2018.1.25），前4名也是这四家，共占到全球总算力的60.31% （全球算力9211434 TH/s）。

& nbsp;           and   in addition, from the network of blocks (www.qukuai.com) the last week (data taken from 2018.1.25), the top four of which together account for 60.31 per cent of the total global capacity (global capacity 9211434 TH/s).

       但年初，国内多地开始通过终止对比特币挖矿业务提供廉价电力和税收减免优惠政策，逐渐引导挖矿企业“有序退出”。因此一些国内大型矿场已开始在海外布局。

& nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; ; but at the beginning of the year, domestic mining firms began to be gradually guided by the policy of providing low-cost electricity and tax breaks through the termination of pitcoin mining operations & & ldquao; orderly exit & & rdquao; so some large domestic mines have started to be laid overseas.

       根据BUSINESS INSIDER网站预测，加拿大很可能变成下一个世界比特币挖矿中心。尤其魁北克地区的电能过剩、电费便宜、气候寒冷、政治稳定等优势，将吸引大型比特币矿场入驻。

& nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp;     & nbsp; & nbsp; and, according to the BUSINSIDER website, Canada is likely to become the next world mine centre in Bitcoin. The advantages of excess power, cheap electricity, cold weather, and political stability, in particular in Quebec, will attract large bitcoin mines.

       其实早在去年秋天，几乎和中国的重拳监管措施同步，魁北克的挖矿电力需求便已大幅上涨。除了加拿大以外，冰岛、东欧和俄罗斯也是国内矿场的可选项。但考虑到成本及各种不确定的政策因素，一些无法外迁的国内中小型矿场依然前途堪忧。

& nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; and & nbsp; in fact, as early as last fall, the demand for mining electricity in Quebec had risen significantly, almost in tandem with China’s heavy fist regulations. Iceland, Eastern Europe, and Russia were also options for domestic mines, in addition to Canada. But, given costs and various uncertain policy factors, some small and medium-sized mine sites in the country that could not be relocated remain precarious.

 

价格及未来趋势：众说纷纭

       高盛策略师曾在年初时预测，比特币可能会成为一种合法的全球通行货币。但他们也强调，这主要是在理论上。实际上，加密数字货币仍在很多地方面临监管困难，不仅政府无法追踪付款和收款方，其币值也不稳定，波动幅度大，不如法定货币价值高。

& nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp;     & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; Goldman Sachs strategists predicted at the beginning of the year that Bitcoin might become a legitimate global currency. They also stressed that it was mainly theoretical. In practice, encrypted digital currencies still face regulatory difficulties in many places, not only in terms of the inability of governments to track payments and receipts, but also in terms of the volatility of their currencies, which is less volatile than the legal monetary value.

       去年冲高膨胀至15倍多的比特币，和瑞波币一样，在2018年年初行情十分不稳定。但位居第二位的以太坊爬升之后却一直维持在高位。

& nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp;     & nbsp; & nbsp; & & nbsp; and last year's boom to more than 15 times the amount of bitcoins, which, like Ripon, was very unstable at the beginning of 2018. But the second-higher ether has remained high since he climbed.

 
 

       似乎全世界范围内对于比特币都是一片唱衰声。伯克希尔•哈撒韦公司CEO沃伦•巴菲特在1月10日告诉美国有线电视台CNBC，不会插手加密数字货币业务，甚至毫不留情地预言：“目前风头正劲的，必然没有好下场。”虽然此前一天，摩根大通CEO杰米•戴蒙才刚刚表示，他后悔称比特币为一场骗局。

& nbsp; & nbsp;           seems to be a failure to sing bitcoin all over the world. Birkhshire & bul; Hazarwe CEO Warren & bul; Buffett told CNN, a cable television station on 10 January, that he would not be involved in encrypting digital money business, even without warning: & & & & & nbsp; & nbsp; & & & nbsp; & & nbsp; & ; the world as a whole.

       “恕我直言。我已经厌倦了比特币。”格伦农资本的创始人和资金经理迈克尔•格伦农说。他认为，这种不被任何主权国家支持的所谓流通货币，除了卖给他人，几乎毫无用处，并非一项好投资。他忠告那些幸运地赚到钱的人说，不如尽早收手，把钱投入到真正的生意中去。

& nbsp; & nbsp;         & & & ldquo; with all due respect. I am tired of Bitcoin. ” Michael & Bull; Glennnon, founder and fund manager of Glennon Capital, said. He argued that this so-called circulation currency, which is not supported by any sovereign country, is of little use and not a good investment, except for selling it to others. He advised those fortunately earning money that it would be better to put it in real business as soon as possible.

       虽然也有人对比特币及其他各种数字货币抱有信心，或持中立立场，但是很多人都相信比特币的黄金时代已经过去。然而，种种迹象表明，虽然比特币也许会消亡，但区块链技术不会，反而很有可能会投入到越来越多的实际应用中。

& nbsp; & nbsp;         & nbsp; & nbsp; and while there are also people who have confidence in, or neutrality in, bitcoin and other digital currencies, many believe that the golden age of bitcoin is over. However, there are indications that, while bitcoin may die, block chain technology will not be, and is likely to become, more and more applied in practice.

 

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区块链（Blockchain）

       区块链的分布式数据存储、点对点传输、共识机制、加密算法等计算机技术的新型应用模式是比特币的底层技术和基础架构，相当于不可篡改、可追溯和不可伪造的分布式账本，被认为是继蒸汽机、电力、互联网之后，下一代颠覆性的核心技术。

New applications of computer technologies such as & nbsp;         and & nbsp; distributed data storage, point-to-point transmission, consensus mechanisms, encryption algorithms, etc., are the bottom-of-bitcoin technology and infrastructure, which amounts to a non-alterable, retrospective and non-false distribution book and is considered to be the core technology of the next generation of subversion after steam machines, electricity, the Internet.

       简而言之，区块链的本质其实就是一个去中心化的数据库，由一串串在密码学上相关联，并按时间顺序相连的数据块组成。每个数据块包含一次比特币网络交易的信息，用于验证信息的有效性（防伪），以及生成下一个区块。

& nbsp; & nbsp;         & nbsp; in short, the essence of the block chain is a decentralised database consisting of a string of data blocks that are code-linked and time-seriesly linked. Each data block contains information from a Bitcoin network transaction to verify the validity of the information (security), and to generate the next block.

       当然，如果你看不懂这些也没关系。正如你上网但并不需要懂TCP/IP协议一样。你只要知道区块链就像个公开的总账本就可以了。账本的每一页（区块）里面纪录着每笔历史交易，所有交易细节，任何人都可以看得到。

& nbsp; & nbsp;         & nbsp; & nbsp; of course, if you don't understand this, it doesn't matter. As you do not have to understand the TCP/IP protocol on the Internet. You just need to know that the block chain is like a public ledger. Every page of the ledger (block) records every historical transaction, and all the details of the transaction can be seen by anyone.

Ted演讲：区块链将如何彻底改变经济系统

Ted Lecture: How the block chain will radically change the economic system

https://v.qq.com/x/page/c0511giilgl.html

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区块链技术的应用：潜力巨大

       随着比特币的火爆，其背后的区块链技术也受到越来越多的关注，由此还衍生出了相关股票和期货，但以噱头居多。不过，除比特币之外，区块链技术的确还可以广泛应用于包括银行与金融行业、商业、政府、工业等领域。

& nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp;     & nbsp; & nbsp; & & nbsp; with the bursting of Bitcoin, the block chain technology behind it is also receiving increasing attention, resulting in stocks and futures, but in large numbers. But, apart from Bitcoin, block chain technology can indeed be widely applied in banking and finance, commerce, government, industry, etc.

       以商业领域为例，列举几个具体的应用：

& nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; in the commercial field, for example, a few specific applications:

• 供应链管理

       区块链的不可篡改和可追溯的分布式账本特性，使它十分适合追踪在供应链中移动和转手的货物，也可以有序安排事项。例如，将新到港的货物放入不同的货柜等等。

& nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp;       & nbsp; and the immutable and retrospective distributional character of the block chain, which makes it well suited to track goods moving and passing through the supply chain, or to arrange matters in an orderly manner. For example, placing newly arrived goods in different containers, etc.

       区块链技术让公司在运输货物的物流环节多了几个新选项，并提供了一种动态的整理追踪数据的方式。

& nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; block chain technology allows companies to add several new options to the logistics chain for transporting goods and provides a dynamic way of sorting and tracking data.

• 医疗

       区块链的去中心化、开放性、自治性、匿名性等特征，十分适合运用于医疗领域。医疗数据包括整体信息如年龄、性别，甚至基本的病史数据，例如，免疫史或生命体征等信息，如果被存储在共享区块链上，那么无数人都可以轻松获得这些信息，却无需担心隐私遭泄露。

& nbsp; & nbsp;         & nbsp; & nbsp; decentralisation, openness, autonomy, anonymity, etc. of the block chain are features that are well suited for use in the medical field. Medical data include overall information such as age, gender, and even basic medical history data, such as immunological history or vital signs, which, if stored on the shared block chain, are easily accessible to countless people without fear of disclosure of privacy.

       此外，使用区块链技术，还可以连接不同的医疗设备，达到个人医疗记录的共享。

& nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; in addition, using block chain technology, different medical devices can be connected to the sharing of personal medical records.

• 房地产

       平均每个业主大约每5-7年就会卖一次房，而且平均一生要搬家约12次。搬迁如此频繁，那么区块链技术用在房地产交易市场，真是再合适不过了。用加密数据快速验证财务状况，使整个买卖流程透明化，可以显著降低虚假交易的风险。

& nbsp; & nbsp;         and & nbsp; on average, each owner sells about every five to seven years, and on average moves about 12 times in his or her lifetime. With such frequent relocations, block chain technology is most suitable for use in real estate markets.

• 媒体

       传媒公司已经开始使用区块链技术。去年7月份，基于区块链技术的美国内容分发平台Decent宣布上线 PUBLIQ程序，允许写作者和内容创作者通过智能合约对内容自主定价，通过区块链传播作品并收到即时稿费。

& nbsp; & nbsp;         & nbsp; media companies have started to use block chain technology. Last July, the US content distribution platform, based on block chain technology, announced the online PUBLIQ program, allowing authors and content creators to freely price content through smart contracts, disseminate their work through block chains and receive instant copy fees.

       由于其可追溯性，区块链技术还可用于媒体信源认证、公民新闻审核、数字版权保护、付费内容订阅、传播效果统计等。

& nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; block chain technology can also be used for media source authentication, citizen news clearance, digital copyright protection, paid content subscription, dissemination effectiveness statistics, etc. because of its traceability.

• 能源

       区块链技术可用于执行能源供应交易，也可以进一步被作为计量、计费和结算过程的基础。其他潜在的应用范围还有：确定归属权、资产管理、来源保证、排放配额，以及可再生能源证书等。

& nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp;       & nbsp; block chain technology can be used for energy supply trading and can be further used as a basis for measuring, billing and clearing processes. Other potential applications include: attribution, asset management, source assurance, emission quotas, and renewable energy certificates.

       除了以上列出的应用之外，区块链技术还可以用在支付和转账、网络安全、选举、智能合同和股票交易等等很多方面。更多功能还在等待开发和应用。

& nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp;       & nbsp; & nbsp; in addition to the applications listed above, block chain technology can also be used in a number of areas, such as payments and transfers, network security, elections, smart contracts and stock trading.

 

       有人拿荷兰的“郁金香泡沫”与比特币的辉煌时期做对比，甚至有人谴责比特币是一场新的“庞氏骗局”。随着政策的收紧，年初比特币行情的大跌，也许在国内的黄金时代真的已经过去。没有政府背书的虚拟数字货币，注定不可能走得太远。然而，比特币背后的区块链技术却逐渐被重视。也许再过几年，你会发现，这一技术已经彻底改变了社会的方方面面。

& nbsp; & nbsp;         &ldquo in the Netherlands; tulip foam & rdquo; contrasting with the brilliance of Bitcoin, some even denounced Bitcoin as a new & ldquo; Ponzi concoct & & rdquo; as policy tightened, the early bitcoin fell, perhaps the golden age in the country was really past. It was unlikely to go too far without a virtual digital currency backed by the government. However, the block chain technology behind Bitco is gradually being valued. Perhaps in a few years, you will find that this technology has completely changed the face of society.

 

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