细数加密行业5个肉眼可见的变化

Author: Sam, Source: X, @sdcrypto123

Several visible changes have occurred in the industry today:

(1) The number of arbitrage and profit-taking people has increased greatly

In the past, everyone could only buy and sell coins in the secondary market, but now about 1/5 of the users have turned to arbitrage and profit-taking in the semi-primary market. This group of people have a characteristic that they are relatively averse to buying coins in the secondary market, they can be scraped, they can be beaten (engraved), they can be donated (meme), they can be pledged, but they just don't buy. This proportion of increase is equivalent to the secondary market having fewer people buying coins, and more people with low-cost inventory to unload.

(2) Dispersion of hot spots

Restake, engraved text, NFT, Solana ecology, modularization, second-tier networks. This bull market does not have a hot spot that is participated by the general public, which is very different from the past. Funds and users have not come together at all, each playing their own game, scattered and disorderly. The reason for this is, first of all, the problem of industry development, the industry has become large and broad, and it is basically impossible for one person to play and understand the entire industry;

Secondly, the entire industry lacks a truly revolutionary product that can stimulate the imagination again, and it is more of an improved bull market (micro-innovation on innovations that have appeared before).

(3) The market value of too many projects has been pre-mortgaged

Now everyone has a very good judgment on what projects are good and what projects are bluff, it is very difficult to buy something good and cheap. For example, the two second-tier networks of Ethereum, OP and Arb, these two are simply peak from the moment they went live, and the current prices are basically the same as 1-2 years ago when they were just launched, and even Arb is lower than the launch price.

Good things are not cheap, good things and the ability to make money have become two different things.

(4) Funds have not flowed into the cryptocurrency circle

In the past, the institutions investing in the industry were professionals. In addition to understanding Bitcoin, they also understood Ethereum, and in addition to understanding Ethereum, they would also actively invest in various innovative coins.

But this time it's different, after the ETF, the funds investing in Bitcoin are not directly circulating on the chain, but staying in other markets thousands of miles away, these funds are only circulating on Bitcoin, and are basically not interested in innovative coins or investments outside of Bitcoin.

In other words, the institutions that came in the last two rounds were industry insiders who came to invest in the industry, while many of the new institutions that came in this round are only interested in Bitcoin (as a hedge allocation).

So whether Ethereum can smoothly pass the ETF is actually quite important, as it determines whether it can attract a large amount of new capital for investment. If there is no ETF, relying on the existing on-site institutions, it is really not that easy to violently drive up Ethereum's market value and price.

(5) Competition is extremely intensified

The intensification of competition is manifested in two aspects, one is that the number of new entrants is particularly large, and the other is that the strength of the new entrants is very strong. In 2023, on-chain derivatives and restake have just begun to emerge, and a large number of competitors have rushed in. This year, there have been many situations that are contrary to past experience: the track is getting bigger, but the market share of the early leaders is shrinking, and this situation can be said to have appeared simultaneously in every track, not just derivatives. The result of this change is that: buying the leader and holding the leader does not necessarily mean that the price will rise smoothly, because the market share and imagination have not risen with it, and it is even possible that the position may become unstable under the constant pressure of new entrants.

This change in the industry has come faster than I expected. I originally thought it would take this cycle to really arrive, but I didn't expect that we would be in this moment now.

Looking up at the stars, but also firmly on the ground; Cherishing dreams, but also respecting reality.

In this new development cycle (the transition from the dividend period to the stable development period), it requires testing everyone's wisdom. If handled well and adjusted well, the wealth of the dividend period can continue to grow steadily (but will become slower); if not handled well, still using the old logic to handle future investment and speculation, the profits may gradually be returned, and it may become a long-term dream of wealth.

The adjustment I made for myself this bull market is: in half a year, try to lower the expectations and increase the proportion of reducing positions.