为什么太多“好消息”反倒对美股不利？
好消息会被股市视为美联储在更长时间里加息的坏消息，反之亦然。
虽然目前美股市场看上去是因为一系列好消息而上涨，但股市真的不想听到太多好消息。
最近公布的经济数据表现相当好，股市的表现也相当好。
上周四（11月30）公布的数据显示，美联储最关注的通胀指标PCE物价指数正在下降。此前一天，美国政府将第三季度实际国内生产总值(GDP)增速从4.9%向上修正为5.2%。
由此可见，通胀正在下降，经济正在增长而非放缓，虽然关于经济衰退的讨论没有消失，但人们对这个衰退话题的讨论已不再那么激烈。
从季节模式来看，11月通常是美股表现较为强劲的月份，但今年11月，三大股指不仅表现强劲，更是都创下了三年来最佳11月表现。
道琼斯市场数据(Dow Jones Market Data)显示，11月标普500指数累计上涨8%，创下2020年以来最佳11月表现。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨9%，也创下2020年以来最佳11月表现。今年一直在上涨的纳斯达克综合指数11月涨了11%，创下2020年以来最佳11月表现。
截至11月底，今年迄今为止，标普500指数累计上涨19%，纳指上涨36%，道指上涨8.4%。
因此，每年常见的年末买盘和稳健的经济数据给了投资者更多的买入理由。GDP持续增长有望转化为更高的企业利润，而且企业利润一直超出预期。
这些是过去几周支撑股市上涨的动力，但不要相信“华尔街喜欢一切看起来都很美好”的说法。
并不是这样。
残酷的事实是，股市现在不想听到太多经济方面的好消息。
例如，今年股市大部分涨幅是在通胀从去年超过9%的峰值降至近3%的情况下实现的，这说明股市希望看到经济中的需求降温。
需求降温反过来可以让美联储维持利率稳定，甚至可能在未来几个月内降息。
事实上，在标普500指数10月底开始从之前触及的多月低点反弹时，联邦基金期货市场当时已经消化了明年3月降息概率为45%的预期，高于反弹开始时的11%左右。
这是因为，除了最近公布的GDP数据外，还有很多经济数据是低于预期的。根据22V Research的数据，11月中旬，反映美国一篮子经济数据与市场预期落差的花旗美国经济意外指数(Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index )从几周前的75降至近25。
股市对上述指数的大幅下降的现象表示欢迎，因为这说明经济中许多领域正在放缓，与此同时，通胀在进一步降温，美联储几乎肯定不会再加息了。
不过，未来股市在坏消息面前仍有可能上涨。任何经济过于强劲的迹象，都将降低降息的可能性，或提高再次加息的可能性，进而给消费者和企业支出带来压力，支出减少会导致盈利预期下降，在盈利真的出现下降之前股市就会下跌。
富国银行(Wells Fargo)首席美国股票策略师克里斯·哈维(Chris Harvey)说：“2024年，经济方面的好消息可能会被股市视为美联储在更长时间里加息提供支持的坏消息，反之亦然。”
这听上去很复杂。标普500指数目前无法承受利率进一步上升带来的压力。
也许唯一更容易理解的办法是记住一点：美股仍然是一个“坏消息就是好消息”的市场。
Good news will be regarded by the stock market as bad news for the Fed to raise interest rates for a longer period of time, and vice versa. Although the US stock market seems to be rising because of a series of good news at present, the stock market really doesn't want to hear too much good news. The recently released economic data has performed quite well, and the stock market has also performed quite well. The data released last April showed that the inflation index, which the Fed is most concerned about, is declining. The day before, the US government revised the real GDP growth rate in the third quarter from upward to this. Inflation is declining, and the economy is growing rather than slowing down. Although the discussion on the economic recession has not disappeared, people's discussion on this recession topic is no longer so intense. From the seasonal pattern, January is usually the month in which US stocks perform strongly, but this year, the three major stock indexes not only performed strongly, but also all achieved their best monthly performance in three years. Dow Jones market data shows that the S&P index rose cumulatively, setting the best monthly performance since last year, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose, setting the best monthly performance since last year. The Nasdaq Composite Index, which has been rising this year, rose by the month, the best monthly performance since last year. As of the end of this year, the S&P index has risen so far, the Nasdaq index has risen, so the common year-end buying and sound economic data give investors more reasons to buy. Continued growth is expected to translate into higher corporate profits, and corporate profits have always exceeded expectations. These are the driving forces behind the stock market's rise in the past few weeks, but don't believe that Wall Street likes everything to look beautiful. The fact that France is not so cruel is that the stock market doesn't want to hear much good news about the economy now. For example, most of the increase in the stock market this year was realized when inflation dropped from the peak that exceeded last year, which shows that the stock market wants to see the demand in the economy cool down, which in turn can enable the Fed to keep interest rates stable and may even cut interest rates in the next few months. In fact, when the S&P index began to rebound from the multi-month low it hit before, the federal funds futures market had already digested it. In order to reduce the interest rate next year, the probability is expected to be higher than that at the beginning of the rebound. This is because in addition to the recently released data, there are still many economic data that are lower than expected. According to the data, the Citi American economic accident index, which reflects the gap between a basket of American economic data and market expectations, fell from a few weeks ago to near the stock market. The stock market welcomes the sharp decline of the above index, because it shows that many areas of the economy are slowing down, and at the same time inflation is further cooling down. The Federal Reserve will almost certainly not. Raise interest rates again, but the stock market may still rise in the face of bad news in the future. Any sign that the economy is too strong will reduce the possibility of cutting interest rates or increase the possibility of raising interest rates again, which will put pressure on consumers and enterprises' spending. Reducing spending will lead to a decline in earnings expectations, and the stock market will fall before earnings really fall. Chris Harvey, chief American equity strategist at Wells Fargo, said that the good news in the economy in 2008 may be regarded by the stock market as the Fed's support for raising interest rates for a longer period of time. Bad news, and vice versa, sounds complicated. At present, the S&P index can't bear the pressure of further interest rate rise. Perhaps the only easier way to understand is to remember that US stocks are still a market where bad news is good news. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台
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