SocialFi 新贵 xPet: 离伟大临门一脚

币圈资讯 阅读:43 2024-04-22 11:56:46 评论:0
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写在前面 

@xpet_tech 是近期现象级的 SocialFi,上线一周,即吸引了 2639+ ETH 的资金,7000+ 链上用户。项目还处于非常早期,很多规则尚不明确,玩法机制仍有很多迭代的空间。项目方近期也动作频频,而其中最为关注也引起争议的是其于 12月4日晚将用户存入的 ETH 直接进行了清算,并在 Uniswap 上建立了 $XPET/WETH 流动性池。12月6日,其又上市了  $BPET。坦诚说,直接清算这个事做得不怎么地道。鉴于其本身即是没有流动性的币,理论上没有资格参与借贷。在事先没有任何说明的情况下放开 $XPET 价格,并直接进行清算,可谓打得大家措手不及。用户对其的质疑和担忧并非无风起浪,在没有进一步明确信息前,投入还是需要谨慎。

经济模型小组的成员@Fisher_manQ,@observerdq, @0xLukeCrypto, @Janezh1111 等人将其抽象出来,作为一个有意思的脑力游戏和经济模型案例进行了深入讨论。其中,我们觉得最有意思的是系统如何设计才可能走向一个相对均衡持久的状态,当然我们也很关心经济模型的外部价值注入 :)

比较难得的是,经济模型的设计和基于 Twitter 插件的产品形态之间达到了很好的协同,用户快速裂变的同时,系统的经济模型正向飞轮也得以加速运转。

系统生命力的长久之道

The quantity of XPET tokens available for conversion is equivalent to 50% of the XPET revenue earned the preceding day(BPET 可兑换的 XPET 代币数量相当于前一天赚取的 XPET 收入的 50%)。—— XPET 白皮书

结合游戏机制,我们可以推导出下述公式:

综上,我们继续简单推演:

  1. 在头矿阶段,总算力较低,产生 $BPET 数量少(分母),新增 $XPET 很多(分子),单位算力的收益很高。(假设每天生成的 $BPET 都会被兑换掉,流动性会极度缺乏,项目方进行管控也相对容易)

  2. 高收益驱使更多人邀请别人来挖矿,购买矿机,每日填充 $XPET 奖励池

  3. 循环往复,直到有一天增速下降,收益率下降至不足以吸引新的人和资金,系统走向死亡

从上面的路径可以看到,如果要使系统生命力更长久,则需尽可能合理延长高收益的时间,对应到公式,即尝试用多种方式加大分子,减少分母,以及看两者的相对增速是否能维持在一定水平。

  • 加大分子:

    • 协议设计得尽可能平滑,吸引到尽可能多的人加入

    • XPET 价格如果能处在一个合理水平,有助于降低用户参与门槛,提升转化

  • 减少分母

    • 白皮书里目前提到的一些机制设计会有助于达到这个目的,比如 $BPET 的质押生息(增加游戏内 BPET 消耗)和排队黑盒机制(min 函数给可兑换的 BPET 设置上限)

    • Quest 产生的商业流量收入也会给系统带来正外部性,可以在收益率下行时用来回购销毁 $BPET

从公式出发,我们还有一些其他思考:

一、稳定的 XPET 价格兴许是更优解

我们认为,波动的 $XPET 价格设计可能是一个昏招。在当前 $XPET 价格不稳定的设定下:

  • 在其大幅上涨时,用户的入场门槛会显著提高,这无疑会阻碍更多的玩家进入

  • 如果 $XPET 价格过低,收益率没有吸引力,又会进入螺旋下跌状态

所以 $XPET 价格稳定可能是这个系统的最优解。

此外,由于系统设置了每日 100$BPET 的退出限制,超过即需排队等候,用户若花钱无限升级其算力,在没法顺畅退出的情况,其回本周期会被显著拉长,并不划算。对用户来说,比较好的策略是花一定的金钱,将矿机升级到合适的等级,每日需要变现的 $BPET 数量接近 100 水平。由此,这个系统最后会形成的分布是用户数量较广,奖励相对比较平均的状态。这个也更有助于长期的稳态。产品设计者所希望达到的理想态可能正是如此。从这个视角看,团队也不该将入场门槛设置得太高,吸引更多用户入场才是当务之急。

二、设置算力的衰减机制

目前来看,团队似乎从来没有公开提及一个关键问题——工厂算力缺少衰减机制。随着时间变化,公式中的分母无限扩大,则收益率会持续降低,如此一来,XPET 就失去了增长吸引力。我们倾向认为,后续经济模型设计上需要引入工厂的衰减机制,降低分母的增速。理想情况,项目方不需要做通胀的对手盘,而是使用工具箱里的各种方式来调节分子分母,实现系统均衡的目的。

三、动态的算力最优解

当越来越多的用户参与后,大家比拼的就是矿机的生产效率。而由于已上线功能有限,当下用户之间的竞争是相对同质化的(目前几乎只存在唯一最优解)。从已有游戏的形态往前推,可以想象一些演进可能性:平台可以在游戏里面不断去增加玩法,施加调控,比如使宠物生病、饥饿甚至宠物之间进行 PK(增加 BPET 消耗场景,引入更多随机性),通过这些新的机制的引入使挖矿效率受损,从而使玩家之间的竞争更非标。单位算力永远没有最优解,也不存在一个同质化的最优态。如此一来,用户也会有兴致不断去试探怎么达到最优解,并在过程中提高充值。而由于项目方不断在创造新的需求,游戏的生命力也不断焕新。

四、我们的困惑

目前 BPET 和 XPET 的功能区分不明确,两者的价值在场内维持 1:1,由于 BPET 退出受限,场外有一定的折价。这引起了我们的困惑,汇率 1:1 的话,为什么还需要双代币的设计。

另外白皮书里明确提到 “BPET 可兑换的 XPET 代币数量相当于前一天赚取的 XPET 收入的 50%”,经过查询合约地址,确有 50% XPET 转入合约 0xaa2506e41ce0353eb407cd4cb294bb03899c5d77。目前此合约地址已经持续累计 XPET 数量接近 1300 万枚,被兑换掉的 XPET 数量只有 100 万枚左右,且还有近 20 万枚 BPET 在排队队列中等待。

如果没有别的兑换限制条件,有充裕的 XPET(1300万枚)却没有拿出来奖励给 BPET持有者,这损坏了用户的权益。

自动触发的排队机制也让人十分费解,从浏览器数据查看,排队 claim 没有任何规律性可言。这似乎是一个糟糕的现状,团队需要在代码工程实现上下更大的功夫。

考虑到项目上线时间仅仅只有一周时间,可能需要时间去完善,或者产品还不是一个完全态。我们会持续关注项目的进展以及经济模型的迭代,欢迎来和我们交流讨论。


Written in front of it is the recent phenomenal online one week, which attracted the capital chain. The user project is still in a very early stage. Many rules are still unclear, and there are still many iterative space projects. Recently, the project side has also acted frequently, and the most concerned and controversial thing is that it directly liquidated the user's deposits on the evening of the month and established a liquidity pool on the Internet. Frankly speaking, the direct liquidation is not very authentic, given that it is a non-liquid currency in theory. Qualifying to participate in the loan, releasing the price without any explanation in advance and directly clearing it can be said that everyone was caught off guard. Users' doubts and concerns about it were not that there was no smoke without fire, but that it was necessary to invest before further information was made clear. Members of the economic model group and others abstracted it and discussed it as an interesting brain game and economic model case in depth. Among them, we think the most interesting thing is how to design the system to move towards a relatively balanced and lasting state. Of course, we are also very concerned about the external value injection of the economic model. It is rare that the design of the economic model and the product form based on plug-ins have achieved a good synergy. At the same time, the economic model of the system is accelerating the operation of the flywheel. The number of convertible tokens is equivalent to the income earned the day before. Combined with the game mechanism, we can deduce the following formula. In summary, we can continue to simply deduce that the power is finally low in the first mining stage. The denominator with a small number of students adds a lot of molecular units, and the income is very high. Assuming that what is generated every day will be exchanged, the liquidity will be extremely lacking, and it will be relatively easy for the project party to control and control. The high income will drive more people to invite others to mine and buy mining machines, and the reward pool will be filled and repeated every day until one day the growth rate drops, and the yield is not enough to attract new people and the capital system to die. From the above path, it can be seen that if the system vitality is to last longer, it is necessary to extend the high income as reasonably as possible. Time corresponds to the formula, that is, try to increase the numerator and decrease the denominator in various ways and see if the relative growth rate of the two can be maintained at a certain level. Increase the molecular protocol and design it as smoothly as possible to attract as many people as possible to join the price. If it can be at a reasonable level, it will help reduce the user's participation threshold, promote the transformation and reduce the denominator. Some mechanism designs mentioned in the white paper will help to achieve this goal, such as pledge interest, increase in-game consumption and queuing black box mechanism functions to be convertible. The business flow income generated by changing the upper limit will also bring positive externalities to the system, which can be used for repurchase and destruction when the yield goes down. From the formula, we have some other thoughts. A stable price may be a better solution. We think that the fluctuating price design may be a trick. Under the current unstable price setting, the user's entry threshold will be significantly improved when it rises sharply, which will undoubtedly hinder more players from entering. If the price is too low, the yield will be unattractive and will enter the spiral. Price stability may be the optimal solution of this system. In addition, because the system has set the daily exit limit, it needs to wait in line. If users spend money to upgrade their computing power indefinitely, their return period will be significantly prolonged if they can't exit smoothly. It is not cost-effective for users. A better strategy is to spend a certain amount of money to upgrade the mining machine to a suitable level, and the amount of cash that needs to be realized every day is close to the level. Therefore, the final distribution of this system will be that the number of users is wider and the reward is relatively flat. The average state is also more conducive to the long-term steady-state product designer's ideal state, which may be exactly the case. From this perspective, the team should not set the admission threshold too high to attract more users. It is imperative to set the attenuation mechanism of computing power. At present, the team seems to have never publicly mentioned a key issue: the factory computing power lacks the attenuation mechanism, and the rate of return will continue to decrease with the infinite expansion of the denominator in the formula over time, thus losing its growth attraction. We tend to think that the subsequent economic model design needs to introduce the attenuation mechanism of the factory to reduce the growth rate of the denominator. Ideally, the project side does not need to be the opponent of inflation, but uses various ways in the toolbox to adjust the numerator and denominator to achieve the goal of system equilibrium. Three dynamic optimal solutions of computing power. When more and more users participate, everyone competes for the production efficiency of the mining machine. However, due to the limited online functions, the competition between users is relatively homogeneous. At present, there is almost only one optimal solution. Pushing forward from the form of the existing game, we can imagine some evolutionary possibilities. The platform can constantly increase the gameplay and exert control in the game, such as making pets sick and hungry, and even increasing the consumption scene between pets. By introducing these new mechanisms, the mining efficiency is damaged, so that the competition between players is more non-standard computing power, and there will never be an optimal solution or a homogeneous optimal state. In this way, users will be interested in constantly exploring how to achieve the optimal solution and merge. In the process, the recharge is improved, and the vitality of the game is constantly renewed because the project party is constantly creating new demands. Fourth, our confusion is that the function distinction between the current sum and the current sum is unclear. The value of the two is maintained in the venue because there is a certain discount outside the restricted venue, which causes our confusion. If the exchange rate is limited, why do we need the design of double tokens? In addition, the white paper clearly mentions that the number of convertible tokens is equivalent to the income earned the previous day. After inquiry, the contract address is indeed transferred to the current contract address. The cumulative number has been close to 10,000 pieces, and only about 10,000 pieces have been exchanged, and there are still nearly 10,000 pieces waiting in the queue. If there are no other exchange restrictions, there are plenty of 10,000 pieces but they are not given to the holders, which damages the rights and interests of users. The queuing mechanism that is automatically triggered is also very puzzling. It seems that there is no regularity in viewing the queue from browser data. This seems to be a bad situation. The team needs to work harder on the implementation of code engineering, taking into account the online time of the project. There is only one week, and it may take time to improve or the product is not yet in a complete state. We will continue to pay attention to the progress of the project and the iteration of the economic model. Welcome to exchange views with us. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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