Layer2市场动荡 zkSync在竞争中如何应对?

币圈资讯 阅读:38 2024-04-22 11:45:52 评论:0
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原文作者:Haotian,加密观察员 来源:X@tmel0211

前有 Blast 发起吸血鬼式「攻击」,后有 Starknet 祭出 Tokenomics 大招刺激,尽管 zkSync 官方还是一副波澜不惊的样子,但从技术进展,竞争环境,市场现状,社区预期等综合多方的大环境来看,zkSync 不得不被动做出一些「改变」,接下来分享下,我的个人判断:

1)短期看,Blast 这个「伪 Layer2」确实给整个 Layer2 市场带来了活力,从 TVL 数据来看,zkSync 告别下跌颓势,已稳步增长至近 6 亿美元,其他 Layer2 平台,Linea、Mantle、Scroll、Aevo 等整体数据都出现上扬。

这说明,Blast 并非吸血鬼而更像是鲶鱼,让一大批 Layer2 新秀,尤其是 zkSync 受到了「觉醒」之力;毕竟头顶着光环,越长时间无作为就会受相应反噬力。

2)原本期待 zkSync 的技术上能够渐次开放核心 Sequencer 和 Prover、Validator 等关键组件,按原本既定预期,这会是 zkSync 发 token 的必要条件。

现在来看,ZK-Rollup 的技术进展对市场已经无法形成「Drive」之力,大概率 zkSync 不再把技术突破作为核心叫卖亮点,而转而会去啃「生态」这根硬骨头;

市场已经对 ZK-Rollup 和 OP-Rollup 的技术叙事脱敏了,鲜有人关心 OP-Rollup 是否真正有 Battle-tested 挑战产生,Sequencer 是不是去中心化也不再是讨论焦点,相应的,ZK-Rollup 赖以骄傲的 Prover 系统有多精密,EVM 等效性有多优势等原本挂在嘴上的优势,在惨淡的市场和生态面前也只能噤声。

3)就生态而言,zkSync 的细分生态远比官方还要急。之前发文说过,zkSync 会也必须得尽全力扶持出一个王炸级 Derivative 平台出来。现在看,Derivatives 赛道也逐渐热闹起来了。

时隔 1 月,Holdstation 按捺不住发了 Token 激励活动,且受此影响,其 Derivatives 日均交易量攀升到了 20M 以上,APY 最高攀升至 69%,30 日 Fees 达到了 20 万美元。其 Tokenomics 正在形成一个 Gas 补贴用户,吸引用户交易,累计更多 Fees,补贴更多用户的 Flywheel 模式。

我个人 impressed 的是,Holdstation 背靠 AA 账户抽象钱包,用核心 Paymaster+Batch transaction 功能来给平台的用户实现 Gas 补贴,这个思路和即将发 Token 的 Starknet 实施的 token 返利策略如出一辙。

事实上,账户抽象功能中的 Paymaster funtion 天然有利于实施一系列的运营激励策略,这似乎对解决 ZK-Rollup 生态不够活跃的问题大有裨益。

Anyway,在整体 zkSync 生态被 DEX 霸屏,生态一片死气沉沉的时候,Holdstation 项目方用自我造血的方式来试图盘活局面,算是很拼了。无独有偶,这怕才是 zkSync 生态「揭竿而起」的开始,Binance 扶持的 Derivio+zkSync 狂奶的 layer3 应用链 GRVT,或许正在酝酿着一出好戏?

4)上文分析过 Starknet 和 zkSync 都属于综合型旨在扩容的 ZK-Rollup,Starknet 面临的窘境,zkSync 同样存在。因此,Starknet 的空投市场效应将直接决定 zkSync 发空投的标准和时间快慢。

zkSync 各项数据 indicators 似乎都还很「成功」,Alex 在播客中说这句话时表现的并不那么自信。因为他很清楚 zkSync 现在的数据至少一大半来自撸毛党的功劳,大家愿意 Pay Gas 也是基于有空投预期的前提。

而 zkSync 现在只给了市场饱受争议一个「神灯」,在我看来,zkSync 的空投标准绝对不会仅限于神灯,在其多期采访以及推文中似乎暗示了 zkSync 的价值趋向:是否 layer2 增量用户?

zkSync 自身采用无感知账户抽象来降低用户门槛,采用 NFT 玩法来做社区拓新 Pudgy Penguins,包括 Matter labs 成员最近频频在 AA 账户抽象上发声,都似乎指向一个可能,AA 账户抽象的钱包使用会是一个可能的空投 Criteria?

因为 layer2 相较 layer1 的根本价值就是拓新,如果 layer2 只是 layer1 玩家前来叠乐高游戏的场所,这样的 layer2 存在感会很弱。如果 Starknet 发空投后,持续的用户返利能够激活市场,我猜大概率 zkSync 会跟进此 Tokenomics 策略。

5)最近,zkSync 低调完成了 boojum 升级,同时集成了 STARK 和 SNARK 证明。(和我最早分析的判断一致),直接结果是,近 30 天,zkSync 的 Gas 费显著降低了 30% 左右,已经和 Arbitrum 达到了同一水平线。zkSync 原本就在用户体验上有优势,最近 Gas 费的下降会让其进一步获得更广的用户和流量。

事实上,Dune 数据显示,zkSync 最近的活跃地址和 TXS 都显著提升了,对用户(撸毛党)而言,Gas 费的下滑确实会影响交互动力,但一些潜在和空投预期挂钩的官方系列活动,或许更直接有效吧?

相信,zkSync 会在社区活动上有一定布局。

以上。

整体而言,zkSync 主网上线后半年有余,确实站稳了 ZK-Rollup 双雄的宝座,甚至其市场预期远在 Starknet 之上,不过,长期在聚光灯下,也给其带来了巨大的舆论包袱和压力,面对形势突变的 layer2 市场,zkSync 必须得持续 Evolve 思变,才能不掉队。


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