2024年加密行业重大事件展望

币圈资讯 阅读:37 2024-04-22 11:14:30 评论:0
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一、BTC现货ETF有望在2024年推出

2024年1月份,加密货币市场将迎来美国证券交易委员会(SEC)对多个BTC现货ETF申请的重要决定。

众所周知,BTC现货ETF可以使投资者在无需涉及直接所有权复杂性的情况下对BTC进行投资,这对机构投资者有很大的吸引力。BTC现货ETF得到批准的预期可能会扩大BTC的投资者基础,从而提高其采用率和价格稳定性。投资管理公司Vaneck估计,潜在的机构投资量将超过24亿美元,这将推动比特币的价格上涨。

多位业内分析师和加密高管预测,在BTC现货ETF通过后,BTC将达到甚至超过10万美元。例如,Bitwise预测2024年BTC将在现货ETF的推动下达到8万美元,Matrixport和Standard Chartered认为BTC将突破10万美元关口。但也有机构对此不太乐观,例如JP Morgan认为ETF的利好已经部分兑现在目前的价格上,后续上涨动力将不会很充足。

二、降息推动加密市场复兴

2024年的宏观经济环境将更有利于加密货币行业的发展,全球央行放弃进一步加息的预期,这可能会提高加密货币等投机资产的价格。根据目前的普遍预测,大多数主要央行将在通货膨胀率下降的驱动下降低政策利率,这种转变旨在将政策利率从限制转到中立水平。

据美国银行全球研究,美联储和欧洲央行都预计将在2024年中期开始降低利率。较低的利率通常会降低传统避险资产的吸引力,使加密货币等高风险高回报的资产对投资者更具吸引力。同时,借贷成本降低,也可以促进对加密货币行业的更多投资,从而推高加密货币的价格。

三、BTC产量减半成为牛市催化剂

除了BTC现货ETF和积极的宏观经济环境外,即将到来的BTC产量减半可能成为牛市的催化剂。BTC预期在2024年4月或5月份之间迎来产量减半,使矿工的区块奖励从6.25 BTC减少到3.125 BTC。从历史上看,这将影响BTC的供应和需求动态,对BTC网络意义重大。

产量减半可以降低新产出的BTC流入市场的速度,从而降低BTC的流动性供应。过去的减半周期导致了BTC价格的上涨,早期的作用尤为明显。例如,在2012年首次减半之后,BTC的价格在1年内从12美元上涨至964美元。2016年和2020年的产量减半也都导致了BTC价格的大幅上涨。

尽管2024年产量减半的影响很难预测,但历史趋势表明,它对BTC的价格将产生正面影响,再加上现货ETF炒作和宏观经济因素,可能再次催生出趋势性的牛市行情。

四、加密市场或将迎来山寨季

前面提到,BTC现货ETF通过的预期以及对全球央行降息预期可能会为加密货币市场创造有利环境。在BTC和ETH的牛市行情进行到一定程度之后,投资者的注意力将转移到altcoin上。这可能导致山寨季,使目前市值较小的项目出现较大的涨幅。

据加密货币交易员Crypto Feras预测,随着投资者寻求多样化其投资组合并利用更广泛的加密货币市场的新兴机会,下一次主要的山寨季可能会在2024年5月之前发生。

五、随着新法规推出,FTX、Celsius事件得到解决

FTX和Celsius破产事件曾在2022年和2023年初重创加密行业,并促成了全球主要监管加密诉讼,而这些事件预计将在2024年得到妥善解决,各国政府正在全球范围内认真解决加密货币法规问题。

根据FTX破产管理者的拟议计划,FTX正在考虑在2024年重新启动。该计划主要针对离岸客户重新启动FTX.com,而不包括美国的客户。该提案包括将债权人组织成不同的类别,特定的类别可以选择与第三方投资者合作,以建立“离岸交易公司”或重新启动平台。该重新启动计划需要在各种利益相关者之间达成协议,并需要法院的批准。

加密贷款平台Celsius于2022年7月申请破产,此前该公司曾滥用客户资金。现在,Celsius已被美国破产法院批准进行重组计划以摆脱破产,该计划涉及将加密货币归还给客户,并创建由 Fahrenheit LLC管理的新公司。重新组织的业务将专注于BTC挖矿和赚取质押费用。该计划预计将在2024年初开始实施。

六、美国加密法案推出

2023年,美国国会委员会提出了一项两党法案,以建立加密货币的监管框架,标志着加密资产行业向监管迈出了重要一步。该法案旨在澄清加密货币何时应该被判定为证券或商品,解决当前法规的关键歧义。该法案建议扩大美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)对加密货币的监督,同时还定义了美国证券交易委员会(SEC)的管辖权。

当前,SEC和CFTC对加密货币的监管范围存在一些争议,二者都想在加密市场的不同方面主张自己的监管权威。这些争议反映了加密市场现有的混乱和缺乏明确的监管界限。目前尚不清楚该法案是否可以被参议院通过。该法案在获得行业利益相关者和一些政治家的支持得同时,也面临着一些反对的声音(担心这可能会削弱对消费者的保护)。

七、欧洲MiCA重新定义加密法规

尽管美国正在努力建立一个统一的加密货币监管框架,但欧洲已经解决了这个问题。将于2024年生效的加密资产市场法规(MiCA)将为加密货币建立全面的框架。这项综合法规是主要司法管辖区的首条此类法律,要求对加密钱包的提供商和欧盟内的交易平台进行注册,并要求稳定币发行方保持足够的储备。

另外,资金转移法规将配合MiCA,通过要求加密货币运营商确定其客户身份来增强反洗钱措施。

八、去中心化的区块链设施将迅速增长

FTX、Celsius等事件已经削弱了市场参与者对加密货币中心化平台的信任。正因如此,DEX和DeFi在2023年获得了很好的发展机会。而且,由于它们与加密货币的原始价值相符,更大的去中心化趋势将在2024年继续进行。

去中心化技术和加密行业将在2024年继续进行变革性的变化。DeFi部门正在引领这一变化,扩大其产品范畴,包括更复杂的金融服务,包括贷款、借贷和保险等,从而提高了DeFi解决方案的范围和可访问性。

与风险重重的中心化平台相比,DEX为市场参与者提供了更安全和透明的替代方案,并正在迅速发展。DEX的增长受到各个领域进步的刺激:

首先,主要的改进包括增强的流动性方案,该方案解决了DEX长期存在的流动性有限的问题,这也一直是中心化平台的重要优势;

其次,DEX简化了界面,以更好的用户体验吸引更广泛、缺乏技术的受众;

第三,DEX正在实施2层解决方案,以提高可扩展性和交易速度,同时降低成本;

最后,引入复杂的交易功能(例如衍生品交易)正在使DEX有能力提供曾经只能在CEX才能得到的服务。

NFT已经对艺术、音乐和游戏等领域产生了重大影响,到2024年,NFT和其他领域的整合有望进一步加深。NFT的潜在应用是广泛的,从数字资产所有权到物理项目的身份验证。这种趋势将重新定义数字时代的所有权和真实性,并为创作者提供更多机会。

2024年,预计区块链网络的互操作性有望获得动力,我们可能会看到优先考虑跨链兼容性的区块链项目大幅增加。这种互操作性将使各种区块链生态系统之间进行更大的协作。

另外,随着全球对环境问题的认识,可持续性正成为区块链发展的关键重点。预计许多区块链项目将采用更节能的共识机制,努力减少区块链技术的环境影响。

小结

2024年,加密货币行业将会发生一些值得关注的重大发展,并伴随着潜在的牛市。FTX和Celsius等关键案例的解决方案以及法规清晰度将有助于建立主流社会对加密货币行业的信任。

此外,DeFi和去中心化技术的发展将使加密货币进入更加去中心化的路径。因此,2024年可能是加密货币得到主流采用的转折点。


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