1小时近5亿美元灰飞烟灭 比特币暴跌10%献15周年

币圈资讯 阅读:38 2024-04-22 11:06:34 评论:0
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1 月 3 日,正沉浸在纪念比特币创世区块 15 周年活动中的人们,被比特币大幅回调的消息拉回了现实。

据币安行情显示,北京时间 1 月 3 日晚 19:00,比特币出现大幅回调,在 1 个小时内,比特币从 45000 美元跌至最低 40750 美元,跌幅超 9.4%,日内跌幅超过 10%。

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据 Coinglass 数据显示,在快速下跌的短短 1 小时内加密货币市场全网合约爆仓近 5 亿美元,比特币爆仓超 1 亿美元。

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比特币现货 ETF 被拒的担忧出现,Matrixport 报告成导火索

2023 年下半年以来,比特币现货 ETF 一直是整个加密货币圈的关注焦点,在做多的乐观情绪中,比特币从年中的 25000 多美元一路涨至接近 46000 美元。

最近,几乎所有人的目光都集中在美国证券交易委员会(SEC)即将于 1 月 10 日可能做出的批准比特币现货 ETF 的决定上。1 月 3 日,去中心化预测平台 Polymarket 上「比特币 ETF 在 1 月 15 日之前获得批准?」预测合约 Yes 方的价格为 89 美分,这意味市场认为批准的可能性为 89%,而此前该数字为 50%。

同时,彭博社ETF分析师 Eric Balchunas 和 James Seyffart 均表示,比特币现货 ETF 在 1月 10 日之前获得批准的可能性为90%。不过,James Seyffart 也认为,虽然可能性很小,但仍存在本月被拒绝的可能性,因为 SEC 可能想要更多时间。

在乐观情绪的背后,不少人都在担忧比特币会出现大幅回调。

一位行业分析人士对 Techub News 表示,无论比特币现货 ETF 是否会通过,比特币都会大幅回调,甚至通过得最早,可能回调得越快。在最近半年,市场几乎已经消化了比特币 ETF 可能获得批准的消息,而任何拒绝的消息却都可能导致抛售,很多人都在等着这个时刻。

1 月 3 日,Matrixport 发布报告称,由于所有申请都未能满足关键要求,预计 SEC 将在 1 月拒绝所有提案。由民主党主导的五人 SEC 投票委员会不太可能批准比特币现货 ETF,因为这将使比特币合法化为一种替代价值储存方式。

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Matrixport 预计,如果 SEC 拒绝批准,比特币价格可能迅速下跌 20%。

在 SEC 能否批准比特币现货 ETF 的关键节点,所有投资者都成为了惊弓之鸟,市场中预期即使通过也将出现「Sell the news」的人不在少数,就在所有人神经高度紧张的时刻,任何消息无论好坏都将触发连锁反应。

获利者的出售,看空投资者的激进入场,多单的联欢清算,在最初的下跌之后,这一系列的动作推动了价格短期内的持续下行。

美股「开局不利」,新年宏观风险值得关注

1 月 2 日,即 2024 年首个交易日,美债和多数美股指「开门黑」。截至当日收盘,纳斯达斯指数跌 1.63%,创下去年 10 月以来的最大单日跌幅,标普 500 指数跌 0.57%,今日再度调控低开近 0.5%。此外,美联储基金期货交易员预计,2024 年美联储将进行 5-7 次降息,每次降息 25 基点,然而,他们略微下调了 3 月份进行首次降息的预期。

或许是由于需要获利了结,也或许是因为风险资产市场已经连续数月有优秀的表现,美股开年的下跌让一些投资者提高了警惕。其中原因其实非常简单,如果宏观环境不利,即使现货 ETF 通过,作为风险极高的资产,比特币也不会吸引来更多的投资者。

值得注意的是,虽然市场在疯狂炒作降息预期,但正如今天比特币突然的崩盘,一旦市场中大多数人的共识被打破,例如美联储推迟降息或者再度加息,所带来的破坏力可能难以想象。此前,美联储「三把手」、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯带头给降息预期泼冷水,他表示目前没有真的在讨论降息,如有需要,美联储必须准备再次加息。

此外,关于市场上一直热炒的比特币区块奖励减半,笔者想要提醒的是,比特币目前已通过挖矿产出的数量超过了90%,剩余10%产出的速度是否仍然重要值得怀疑。


People who are immersed in the activities commemorating the anniversary of the creation of Bitcoin block on March have been brought back to reality by the news of the sharp callback of Bitcoin. According to the currency security market, Bitcoin showed a sharp callback on the evening of June, Beijing time. In an hour, Bitcoin fell from US dollars to the lowest US dollar, and the decline exceeded the intraday decline. According to the data, in the short hour of rapid decline, the whole network contract of cryptocurrency market exploded nearly US$ 100 million, and the fear that Bitcoin spot was rejected exceeded US$ 100 million was reported as a fuse in the second half of the year. Bitcoin spot has always been the focus of the whole cryptocurrency circle. In the optimistic mood of doing more, bitcoin has risen from more than US dollars in the middle of the year to nearly US dollars. Recently, almost all eyes are focused on the decision that the US Securities and Exchange Commission may make on May to approve bitcoin spot. Last month, bitcoin was approved on the decentralized forecasting platform before May, and the price of the contracting party was predicted to be cents, which means that the market thinks it is possible to approve it, while the figure was at the same time. Analysts of Boshe and both said that it is unlikely that Bitcoin spot will be approved before June, but they also thought that although the possibility is very small, there is still the possibility of being rejected this month, because they may want more time. Behind the optimism, many people are worried that Bitcoin will have a sharp callback. An industry analyst said that whether Bitcoin spot will pass Bitcoin or not, it will be greatly adjusted, and even the sooner it passes, the market will almost digest Bitcoin in the last six months. The news that it may be approved, but any news of rejection may lead to selling. Many people are waiting for this moment. The report released on April said that all proposals are expected to be rejected in June because all applications failed to meet the key requirements. The five-member voting Committee led by the Democratic Party is unlikely to approve bitcoin spot because it will legalize bitcoin as an alternative value storage method. It is expected that if it is rejected, the price of bitcoin will drop rapidly at the key node that can approve bitcoin spot. All investors have become frightened birds in the market, and there are not a few people who are expected to appear even if they pass. At the moment when everyone is nervous, any news, good or bad, will trigger a chain reaction. The sale of bearish investors will be aggressive. After the initial decline, this series of actions will promote the sustained downward trend of prices in the short term. The macro risks of the New Year are worthy of attention. On the first trading day of the year, US bonds and most US stock indexes will open their doors. At the close of the day, the Nasdaq index fell, the biggest one-day drop since last month. The S&P index fell again today, and it opened lower. In addition, the Fed fund futures traders expected that the Fed would cut interest rates twice in 2008, and the basis point of each rate cut. However, they slightly lowered their expectations for the first rate cut in January, perhaps because of the need for profit-taking, or perhaps because the venture capital market has performed well for several months. The decline of US stocks at the beginning of the year made some investors wary. The reason is actually very simple. If the macro environment is unfavorable, even if the spot passes through Bitcoin as a highly risky asset, it will not attract more investors. It is worth noting that although the market is frantically speculating on the expectation of interest rate cuts, just as today's sudden collapse of Bitcoin, once the consensus of most people in the market is broken, for example, the destructive power brought by the Fed's postponement of interest rate cuts or interest rate hikes again may be unimaginable. Previously, new york Fed President Williams took the lead in pouring cold water on the expectation of interest rate cuts. He said that there is no real one at present. Discuss interest rate cuts. If necessary, the Federal Reserve must be prepared to raise interest rates again. In addition, the reward for bitcoin blocks that have been hotly speculated in the market will be halved. I want to remind you that it is still doubtful whether bitcoin has exceeded the speed of remaining output through mining. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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