Celestia是另一个庞氏吗?详解TIA代币的供需动态与市场叙事

币圈资讯 阅读:49 2024-04-22 10:39:40 评论:0
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作者:Humble Farmer Army Newsletter 来源:substack 翻译:善欧巴,比特币买卖交易网

在你生我气之前,我想澄清一下,我并不是说 Celestia 是个庞氏骗局。事实上,我认为这是我们长期以来看到的最重要的技术进步之一。这篇文章仅探讨了 $TIA 代币的供需动态,以及为什么我认为它与 2021 年泡沫期间对零售业如此有吸引力的 OHM (3,3) 叙述有相似之处。

68sQlc4v2dUBMtyTJiT08eh2wsvTjVMQL1ewlL1M.png

本报告将分多个部分完成:

  • Celestia是什么?

  • $TIA 代币的叙事是什么?

  • $TIA 与 $OHM 和 (3,3) 有什么相似之处?

  • 接下来的计划是什么?

什么是Celestia?

这份报告如果我尝试详细解释 Celestia,会变得冗长,所以我只推荐由 Nosleepjon 写的精彩文章。简而言之,Celestia 分解了区块链堆栈,专注于数据可用性层。这使得新项目部署新的 rollups 和区块链变得更加容易和便宜。例如,Manta Network 通过使用 Celestia 的数据可用性替代以太坊,实现了 99.8% 的费用降低!

ESRTeNcsdKKRU4dULpgz12eMERyoCXktpccx58OO.png

$TIA 代币的叙事是什么?

我认为 Celestia 是空投叙事中最纯粹的投资。它使用 Cosmos SDK 构建,并在 2023 年 11 月向 OSMO 和 ATOM 的质押者空投了代币。我们已经见证了 Dymension 和 Saga 的两次大型空投。

Celestia 简化了新 rollup 的启动流程。这些 rollup 应该会将部分供应空投给 TIA 的质押者。L1/L2 代币在市场上通常溢价。因此,这一叙事背后的逻辑是:“TIA 的价格并不重要,因为空投会弥补损失。”

现在,这个说法既可能是对的,也可能是错的。通过我的 TIA 质押操作,我的 DYM 空投已经覆盖了我购买 TIA 的初始成本基础。因此,理论上,如果我在 DYM 上市时抛售我的空投,我基本上可以说是“免费”获得了我的 TIA 头寸。当然我不会这么做,因为我相信 DYM 也有着强劲的叙事,但那是另外一个话题了。

FILjSVrJhfoHGLU4zg1zs7BqbDyJbPXiHEjNuXMo.png

我对 Cosmos 社区的一大批评是,他们真的很糟糕,无法向加密货币/普通人社区传达他们的价值主张。他们生活在自己的泡沫中,结果代币价格和社区都受到了影响。

A2nNLWq1dOomUixJ3UshVGu9VM4mYkEFC7gatNlC.png

讽刺的是,空投解决了这个问题。开发者可以进行慷慨的空投,整个社区的持有者就可以弄清楚代币背后的叙事是什么。这对所有参与者都很有益处,因为社区将为开发人员做所有工作。开发者可以开发,社区可以吹捧。这就是为什么团队的小型空投会让人看空。

质押

上面的推文有点像个玩笑,但也是认真的。SAGA 团队和风险投资公司尽最大努力让空投尽可能难以获得,例如在 12/1 对 TIA 质押者进行快照,最低质押量为 23。空投的目的是奖励社区。他们真的认为在 TIA 代币启动不到一个月后就会形成一个 Celestia 社区吗?Celestia 社区现在才刚刚开始形成,所以未来的项目应该停止通过非常早的快照来中途扼杀空投。SAGA 的空投团队和风险投资公司将其极大地推向了中间曲线。

另一方面,DYM 则是一个平等主义的空投,在 12/19 进行快照,最低 TIA 质押量为 1。这意味着你可以质押 20 美元的 TIA 并获得价值约 1000 美元的空投。他们还向 Pudgy Penguin 和 Solana NFT 社区空投了代币。你只要在 Twitter/X 上搜索“$DYM”,就能看到一个强大的社区,甚至是在代币发布之前!这就是应该做的方式。这里有一个关于 DYM 应该值多少钱的精彩讨论。

我极度看空 SAGA,极度看涨 DYM。

为什么 Celestia 是新的 (3,3)

你可能意识到这是一个自反叙事。Celestia 社区越强大,团队空投给 $TIA 社区的动力就越足。毕竟,这就是 Cosmos 生态系统的精神,不是吗?随着市场预期更多的空投,对价格不敏感的买家就会越多。而如果你为了空投质押 TIA,人们为什么要卖呢…?

因此,TIA 的估值可以这样理解:

价格 (TIA) = 数据可用性层价值增长 + 作为 “模块化货币 + 所有未来空投价值” 的 TIA 货币溢价

现在,没有人知道如何计算价值增长和货币溢价,因为它刚刚启动。所以,人们自然而然地将空投的价值作为持有 $TIA 的理由。DYM 空投之所以巨大,是因为人们看衰它。但随着更多空投的宣布,人们会购买 TIA 进行质押(记住,质押 TIA 有 21 天的解除绑定期)。你想猜猜 DYM 认领上线的时间吗?

QACjbfQpON6NheWezchq3xGfuEGjR7wiczi4A37q.png

显然,随着时间的推移,空投将会被稀释。然而,Celestia 刚启动两个月,所以我猜测我们仍处于空投叙事的早期阶段。事实上,大多数加密货币玩家都在中心化交易所交易,甚至不知道如何质押 Celestia。所以说,看衰他们是合理的。 总有一天,取消质押 TIA 是合理的,但我不认为现在是时候。 

0xJpSYcZPzHxZhKrPIvvAzARbIfz6wZnqvOEj00k.png

事实是,散户投资者热爱空投叙事。这又有什么不对呢?100 美元换 10 万美元的承诺看起来像是金融的未来。看看这视频的浏览量!如果你期待散户投资者通过 YouTube 回归,他们会购买并质押 TIA。 随着 TIA 持续空投并上涨,肯定会出现一波新的 YouTube 视频博主和 TikTok 用户,他们会重复类似于 OHM 时的谬论: “OHM 的价格可以下跌 99%,因为 APY 会弥补它。” “TIA 的价格无关紧要,因为空投会弥补它。” 

llzuBtsJHnCy0ESasVHXYVkoPG8w6WsndRLB2K6O.png

你看?当然我相信 TIA 是本轮周期最重要的创新之一,但这并不意味着这个数字会永远上涨。我预测这种情况会再次发生,因为人类的贪婪是可以预测的,而影响者对其观众进行宣传的诱惑是不可避免的。当然,你可以说我其中之一。 但我也相信,在牛市早期阶段质押 TIA 会非常有利可图。我只是在警告你可能发生的事情,以便你做好准备。这也是我写这篇文章来提醒自己,12 个月后我需要保持谦虚并获利,即使叙事看起来坚不可摧。以下是我认为 TIA 价格在即将到来的周期中会如何变化:

IZat0YSYO3SQiULGswiDAIX5HlSLX8Bq9InkOkWA.png

我花了 30 秒画了这个图表。当然会有回调,我也可能错。我认为 TIA 会成为牛市期间令人惊叹的持仓,但也会成为令人无比痛苦的熊市持仓,因为一旦人们意识到估值没有意义,就会抛售。21 天的解除绑定期会让这种情况更加严峻。

那么计划是什么?

我将在接下来的周期中质押 TIA。我会持有部分空投,也会出售部分空投。我预计这会带来收益。但是我什么时候卖?说实话,我完全不知道。我目前的计划是,一旦 Coinbase 在苹果应用商店排名第一,或者主流币达到历史新高,就开始减持我的 TIA 头寸。

我还想提醒一下,今天是 2024 年 1 月 13 日。如果你将来看到这篇帖子,我的观点可能已经改变了。我也非常不擅长预测短期价格走势。只有时间会给出答案!


Before you get angry with me, I want to clarify that I'm not saying it's a Ponzi scheme. In fact, I think it's one of the most important technological advances we've seen for a long time. This article only discusses the supply and demand dynamics of tokens and why I think it is similar to the narrative that was so attractive to the retail industry during the bubble of 2008. This report will be completed in multiple parts. What is the narrative of tokens? What are the similarities and differences? Next, What is the plan? What is this report? If I try to explain it in detail, it will become lengthy, so I only recommend the wonderful articles written by me. In short, it decomposes the blockchain stack and focuses on the data availability layer, which makes it easier and cheaper to deploy new and blockchain for new projects. For example, the cost reduction achieved by using data availability instead of Ethereum is what I think is the purest investment in the airdrop narrative. It uses the construction and airdrops tokens to the pledger of peace in the year. We have witnessed two large-scale airdrops in and simplified the new start-up process, which should airdrop some supplies to the pledgee. Tokens are usually at a premium in the market, so the logic behind this narrative is that the price is not important, because airdrops will make up for losses. Now this statement may be right or wrong. My airdrops have covered the initial cost base of my purchase through my pledge operation, so in theory, if I sell my airdrops when I go public, I can basically say that I am exempt. Fei got my position, of course, I won't do it because I believe there is a strong narrative, but that's another topic. One of my big criticisms of the community is that they are really bad and can't convey their value proposition to the cryptocurrency ordinary community. They live in their own bubble, and as a result, the price of tokens and the community are affected. Ironically, airdrops have solved this problem, developers can make generous airdrops, and the holders of the whole community can figure out what the narrative behind tokens is. This is very beneficial to all participants, because the community will do all the work for the developers, who can develop the community and brag about it. This is why the team's small airdrops will make people look empty and pledge. The tweet above is a bit like a joke, but it is also serious. The team and venture capital companies try their best to make airdrops as difficult as possible to obtain, for example, taking a snapshot of the pledge. The purpose of the minimum pledge is to reward the community. They really think that it will be formed less than one month after the token is launched. A community is just beginning to form, so future projects should stop killing airdrop teams and venture capital companies through very early snapshots, which greatly push it to the middle curve. On the other hand, an egalitarian airdrop is taking snapshots, and the minimum pledge amount is, which means that you can pledge dollars and get airdrops worth about dollars. They also airdropped tokens to the community. You can see a strong community even by searching on the Internet. This is the way to do it. There is a wonderful discussion about how much it should be worth. I am extremely bearish and extremely bullish. Why is it new? You may realize that this is a reflexive narrative community. The stronger the team is, the more motivation it has to airdrop to the community. After all, this is the spirit of the ecosystem, isn't it? As the market expects more airdrops, there will be more buyers who are not sensitive to price. If you pledge for airdrops, why do people sell them? Therefore, the valuation can be understood in this way. Price data is available. As a modular currency, the value growth of the sex layer is the currency premium of all future airdrops. Now no one knows how to calculate the value growth and currency premium. Because it has just started, people naturally take the value of airdrops as the reason for holding it. The airdrops are huge because people look down on it, but with the announcement of more airdrops, people will buy and pledge. Remember the unbinding period of the pledge. Do you want to guess when the claim will go online? Obviously, the airdrops will be diluted as time goes by. However, It's only been launched for two months, so I guess we are still in the early stage of airdrop narration. In fact, most cryptocurrency players trade on centralized exchanges and don't even know how to pledge, so it's reasonable to look down on them. It's reasonable to cancel the pledge one day, but I don't think it's time. The fact is that retail investors love airdrop narration. What's wrong with this? The promise of changing dollars into ten thousand dollars looks like the future of finance. Look at the number of views of this video if you expect retail investors to pass it. After the return, they will buy and pledge. With the continuous airdrop and rising, there will definitely be a new wave of video bloggers and users. They will repeat the fallacy similar to time. The price can go down because it will make up for it. It doesn't matter because airdrop will make up for it. You see, of course, I believe it is one of the most important innovations in this cycle, but this does not mean that this number will rise forever. I predict that this situation will happen again because human greed is predictable and the influence people are tempted to publicize their audience. It's inevitable, of course, you can call me one of them, but I also believe that pledge will be very profitable in the early stage of the bull market. I'm just warning you about what may happen so that you can get ready. That's why I wrote this article to remind myself that I need to be modest and profitable after a month, even if the narrative seems indestructible. Here's how I think the price will change in the coming cycle. I spent seconds drawing this chart. Of course, there will be a callback, and I may be wrong. I think it will become a bull market period order. Amazing position, but it will also become an extremely painful bear market position, because once people realize that the valuation is meaningless, they will sell it. The unbinding period will make this situation even more severe. So what is the plan? I will pledge in the next cycle. I will hold some airdrops and sell some airdrops. I expect this to bring benefits, but to be honest, I have no idea that my current plan is once I rank first in the Apple App Store or the mainstream currency reaches a record high. I would also like to remind you that today is June, if you read this post in the future, my opinion may have changed. I am also very bad at predicting short-term price trends, and only time will give an answer. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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