行情震荡：BTC ETF的影响还能持续多久？

In, with the trend that only a new spot began to trade bitcoin in the American market, it fluctuated like a roller coaster at the beginning of the new year. However, although this incident brought market chaos, it was of great historical significance. During this period, the price of bitcoin hit a new high for many years and a year-to-date low. However, there is no doubt that Bitcoin welcomed the power of traditional finance into its world. The US Securities and Exchange Commission approved the listing of ten new bitcoin spot products, which brought a historic chaotic week to bitcoin investors. The price of bitcoin hit a new high for many years, and then fell to a year-to-date low. The weekend market selling was driven by derivative leverage and spot profit-taking. Many indicators reached the level when there was great resistance in the past cycle. Long-term investors sold about 10,000 bitcoins, and profit-taking has proved to be a real roller coaster ride for bitcoin investors in just two weeks. The US Securities and Exchange Commission approved a bitcoin spot product to be traded in the US market, which can be said to be history. One of the most important financial product listing events in the world, in many ways, Bitcoin successfully pulled the traditional financial circles and American regulators into the notorious chaotic and fluctuating world. After the social media account was stolen on April, the news of approval appeared. The hacker issued a false approval notice, which made the price soar to $10,000, but with the arrival of authoritative rumors, the price of Bitcoin quickly fell back to $10,000. The second oolong occurred on April, when the real approval document was in the American market. It leaked from the official website before the close, but all kinds of products were finally approved and started trading on June. As a result, the price of bitcoin hit a new high for many years, reaching a level slightly lower than 10,000 US dollars, but then fell over the weekend. When the traditional market was closed, it fell to 10,000 US dollars, which is the lowest since the beginning of the year. Even so, Bitcoin still welcomes Wall Street to its world again. In the first two days of trading, the total spot turnover reached 100 million US dollars, and the asset management scale of the inflow exceeded 100 million US dollars. This exceeds the $ billion outflow of products currently traded, because investors have redistributed their investments after years of investment, and the reason is that the latter's performance as a closed-end fund is poor, and the highest cost is lower than that of other products. Despite these outflows, its trading volume in two trading days is $ billion, accounting for about the total trading volume. In the next few weeks, funds are likely to continue to circulate and shuffle internally. As for the scale, we can see from the following figure that despite the outflow, the huge share they hold still dwarfs their competitors, and the related liquidity situation is still attractive to any trader and investor who is sensitive to market liquidity and depth. Only two trading days later, the total holdings of spot products in the United States now reach about 100 million US dollars, accounting for the global holdings. Overall, the trading volume and asset management scale have made it the largest and most important issuance event in history. First, this event marks the end of the initial stage of maturity and growth of Bitcoin in many ways. Whether the news hype event is halved or another Thursday comes, Bitcoin investors like to argue about how these events are discounted by market pricing. Although there have been great fluctuations along the way, the price of Bitcoin has remained basically the same since the beginning of the year, which shows that the pricing of this special event is perfect. Of course, there are key driving factors behind the mid-term fluctuations since the middle of the month. The futures yellow has increased by $ billion, and the options blue has increased by $ billion this week. We still need to pay attention to the fact that the open contracts in the two markets are still close to multi-year highs due to contract expiration and liquidation, which shows that the leverage ratio has increased and is becoming a more dominant force in the market. The following figure shows the oscillation index of the percentage change of open futures contracts. This tool can be used to find the rapid change of leverage ratio in the overall market. During the period, the high value of red indicates an increase of 100 standard deviation, and the low value of blue indicates a decrease of 100 standard deviation. We can see that there was a major deleveraging event on January, and nearly 100 million US dollars were liquidated in a single day. On the contrary, with the peak of speculative activities, the price was close to 10,000 US dollars. As the new owner of the stock entered the bitcoin trading environment, the price fell to 10,000 US dollars due to selling at the weekend, and the interest rate of perpetual funds has maintained a strong positive deviation. This shows that leverage at present. Traders are in a net long position and sometimes pay more than the annualized rate of return of the short position. We can also see the obvious stage change in the middle of the month, which shows that the financing interest rate has changed from a structure that oscillates around the middle position to a continuous positive value. This week, the interest rate of funds has cooled down, but the overall interest rate has remained positive. Since the middle of the month, the implied volatility of options has also reversed. This indicator has soared in this week's chaos and has weakened with the interest of investors during the bear market since January. It is also worth noting that the liquidity and depth of the infrastructure in the options market are obviously mature in 2008. The open interest contract is now at the same level as the futures market. This downward trend of the index of implied volatility of options seems to have reversed in a short period of time, which has more than tripled since the low point of the month. This week, it has reached the above level. As spot products open new doors for institutions and retail capital, the volatility of Bitcoin is likely to begin to evolve. Long-term holders and new traders have been dormant for a long time. It is very common for holders to react during major market events, including the period when the market breaks through a new historical high value, the period around the top and bottom of the cycle, and the period when the market structure has undergone major changes, such as halving and now launching the spot, etc. The degree of unrealized gains and losses held by these long-term investors can be measured by this indicator, which has reached a meaningful positive number this week, which means that the average unrealized profits of long-term investors have reached, which is also the week before Bitcoin bulls. The level of meaningful resistance encountered in the interim is also slightly lower than its historical high value, which has decreased since January because more dormant bitcoins have been used for profit-taking. Although it is a meaningful figure, it should also be viewed in the context that the total supply of long-term investors accounts for the circulation supply. With the occurrence of the above expenditures, the supply of short-term investors has just started to rebound from the historical low point. Even so, the amount of expenditures from old traders is statistically significant, which also leads to the standard deviation of bitcoin that has been dormant for more than years. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

注册有任何问题请添加 微信：MVIP619 拉你进入群

文章转载注明 网址：https://netpsp.com/?id=61416