比特币/加密货币牛市周期有何不同

币圈资讯 阅读:33 2024-04-22 08:55:44 评论:0
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作者:Crypto with Lorenzo ;编译:白话区块链

这次牛市的预兆表明,将会超越以往的牛市。

比特币即将创下新的历史最高点,仿生币正在暴涨,以太坊终于加速走向新的高点。

牛市确实已经回归,但这一次更加活跃,而且出现得比许多人预期的稍早。

让我们深入探讨这次市场的不同之处。

1、现在有很多机构正式加入了比特币市场

严格来说,这些机构已经加入了好几年,很可能是自2014年就加入了。由于这些机构非常聪明且同样狡猾,许多人已经装作不知道足够长的时间,并欺骗了足够多的人,包括各种对手,使他们相信比特币是无用的,没有人追捧的。

除非你一直生不怎么关注,你肯定已经听说了美国证券交易委员会在一月份批准了十一只现货比特币ETF,导致数十亿美元流入这些公开交易的基金。

这在某些方面是积极的,但在其他方面却是一个问题,因为这是第一个周期,机构显著增加了他们对比特币的曝光度,而一旦美国批准以太坊的现货ETF,情况也将类似。

2、提前行动

这是比特币在其四年一次的减半前迅速接近历史最高点的第一次;即将到来的减半(预计将在4月21日发生)将是它的第四次。

正如下面的BTC/USD价格图所示,我们走在了时间表之前,这进一步增加了对减半后前景的乐观和兴奋。

就像我们本周早些时候看到的那样,整个市场突然崩盘,BTC在短短六个小时内从69,000美元跌至约61,800美元,但这种情况是短暂的。从那时起,BTC回升至66,000美元(过去一年增长约200%),ETH价格约为3,800美元,而其他替Token大多已经从突然的下跌中恢复过来。

下个月的BTC减半将进一步加剧供应冲击,大多数抛售很快会被他人买入,通常是由精明的长期持有者、鲸鱼和其他机构投资者购买。

image.png

自2009年以来的BTC/USD价格图表,使用基于10的对数来强调每次减半事件后的价格增长。橙色箭头表示以前的迭代;绿色箭头指的是下个月的减半。来源:Highcharts.com(通过BuyBitcoinWorldwide)。箭头是作者添加的,对每次减半日期的近似表示。

尽管比特币仍然是主要话题,仍然占据了总体市场份额的一半以上,以太坊即将部署期待已久的可扩展性改进——Dencun和Proto-Danksharding——但在2024年并不常见的三个新叙事已经出现。

人工智能/人工通用智能(AI/AGI)、Layer-2以及最新流行的缩写,dePIN(去中心化物理基础设施网络)。

游戏/玩赚和与NFT相关的加密货币正在经历复兴,但上述类别中的项目很可能会在我们进入这轮牛市的过程中将它们遮掩。

人工智能/人工通用智能(AI/AGI):自2022年11月以来,人们对OpenAI的ChatGPT、DALL·E和相关的深度学习模型的发布失去了理智。增加了炒作的是OpenAI即将发布的Sora,这是OpenAI的文本到视频模型,预计将在今年晚些时候发布(确切日期仍待确定)。

当OpenAI宣布确切日期时,预计与AI相关的加密货币将比空间中其他数字资产表现更加强劲。与人工智能密切相关的dePIN资产也将受益。

一些值得关注的相关资产包括Singularity NET(AGIX)、Ocean Protocol(OCEAN)、Fetch.ai(FET)和The Graph(GRT),因此,请密切关注这些项目。

专注于提高以太坊可扩展性的Layer 2已经在排名上攀升,Immutable(IMX)和Optimism(OP)表现出色。 Arbitrum(ARB)和Loopring(LRC)是该领域的其他参与者。

一些侧链也帮助以太坊提高可扩展性,但它们存在于它们自己的网络中,而不是像L2那样坐落在以太坊之上。 Celestia(CEL)是过去12个月表现最好的之一,但Polygon(MATIC)仍值得在接下来的几个月里关注。

image.png

这将是第一个牛市周期,L2能够通过确保以太坊交易更便宜、更快速地展示其提供的功能,与2021年不同。来源:L2 Beat

以太坊和L2的结合现在可以持续处理超过每秒100笔交易(TPS)。我预计在考虑到持续的L2改进、下周计划的Dencun升级和Proto-Danksharding后,到今年年底这个数字将达到超过每秒500笔交易(TPS)。

DePIN:这涉及促进分布式账本技术(特别是区块链)用于更多实际用例而不仅仅局限于Web3的项目。它旨在通过提供分布式和更具成本竞争力的替代方案,打破我们社会各个方面的集中式设置。

一些DePIN的示例包括:

— 云计算,特别是文件存储和用于图像/视频渲染的GPU访问。值得关注的加密货币包括Render Network(RNDR)、Arweave(AR)、Filecoin(FIL)和Golem(GLM)。

— 全球范围内改善和更实惠的互联网接入:例如,Helium Network(HNT)及其相关Token — Helium Mobile(MOBILE)和物联网(IoT)Token。

— 去中心化的汽车共享或交付服务,与涉及物联网的项目相关,例如,Iota(IOTA)和VeChain(VET),覆盖了各种用例。

— 分布式视频流/分享平台,例如Livepeer(LPT)和Theta(THETA),是受欢迎的例子。

最近许多这些特色资产都产生了令人印象深刻的收益,表现超过了大多数前200名加密货币资产,其中许多自2023年1月以来也表现良好。

就像没有莫扎里拉奶酪的比萨一样,加密市场如果没有仿生币,就不会完整。

尽管被SHIB、WIF和FLOKI超越,但DOGE再次加入了行动,旨在重返新的历史最高点,也许(仅仅可能)达到神秘的每枚1美元。

当然除了狗,我们有了佩佩青蛙、羊驼模因币(SOLAMA)、特朗普主题的币,甚至还有一个不适合未成年人的版本也在蓬勃发展,在不到一周的时间里获得了300%的收益。

尽管它们有点尴尬,但这些币种在几周内产生了改变生活的收益。经验丰富的加密货币交易者会知道如何利用许多这些币种所关联的快速拉涨和抛售,快速赚取10-20倍的利润,理想情况下,将它们转换为比特币和以太坊,以保持投资回报率在我们进入这个牛市的过程中持续增长。

相反,那些冒险者可能会在顶点处恐慌买入,然后遭受损失,所以最终预计这些币种和Token的价格会暴跌。

3、克服一系列的争议、崩溃和诉讼

尽管伊丽莎白·沃伦、加里·根斯勒、布拉德·谢尔曼和努里埃尔·鲁比尼等人——至少在涉及比特币方面,我们不应忘记彼得·舒菲和杰米·戴蒙——都希望这个领域能够彻底被终结,但它再次展现了其力量,通过在2021年11月至2023年2月之间经历了漫长的熊市。

我们不得不承受这个领域多次高调崩溃的冲击:FTX和Alameda Research、Terra Luna、Celsius、3AC......名单还在继续。

币安、Kraken、Coinbase甚至曾被视为美国加密货币监管典范的Gemini也被美国证券交易委员会起诉,而该委员会的主席加里·根斯勒仍然在其领导下。

然而,当Grayscale成功地迫使美国监管机构考虑其将比特币信托(GBTC)转换为现货比特币ETF的申请时,局势开始发生变化。

此外,美国最高法院法官阿纳丽莎·托雷斯裁定,当在交易平台和算法(例如,去中心化交易平台)上交易XRP时,XRP不是一种证券,从而为瑞波赢得了部分胜利。

是的,严格来说,美国证券交易委员会诉瑞波实验室公司的诉讼是在之前(2021年)的牛市之前开始的,但托雷斯法官的决定恰逢这次牛市。

这与一些误导的政客、商界领袖和一般人士持续提出的指责相结合,他们选择抹黑整个加密货币领域,声称它全部都是虚假的,而不是针对那些真正的骗局项目,也没有对那些合法项目予以应有的认可。

4、更高效率,更好的基础设施和更激烈的竞争

就像互联网在早期一样,加密货币仍然相对缓慢、笨拙,通常效率低下,而且不像它本应该的那样用户友好。

如果您年龄超过30岁(甚至在某些情况下是25岁),您可能还记得那个标志性的拨号音,无法同时使用座机电话,并且以Kbps的速度(是的,您没看错)。

就像互联网在20世纪80年代和90年代初期变得比早期快了成千上万倍,变得更加先进一样,这个领域也将在保持安全性和“足够”去中心化的同时变得飞快。

以下是自上一轮牛市以来值得反思的其他积极因素:

  • Solana已经建立起自己作为另一个以太坊的竞争对手,从一段可怕的熊市和一系列臭名昭著的网络故障中恢复过来。

  • 以太坊成功地从工作量证明转变为其工作量证明的质押链,作为The Merge(在2022年)的一部分。

正如上文所述,L2正变得更加成熟。

  • 其他像Cardano、Avalanche、Cosmos和Polkadot等L1继续发展其生态系统,并自2021年以来不断进行改进,以吸引新的开发者和网络用户。

  • 萨尔瓦多和中非共和国(CAR)打破了常规(以及多个批评者,尤其是国际货币基金组织和世界银行),并将BTC作为法定货币。

  • 通过整合NFT,改进的钱包集成和增强的Web3体验

  • 更多的交易对,支持的交易平台(中心化和去中心化的),DEX的更好的UX和UI等。

  • 流动权益的增长和更简单、更易于访问的链上权益解决方案,例如,用于以太坊和Polkadot的。

  • 以太坊改进提案EIP-1559的实施导致每分钟燃烧少量ETH,使其(略微)通缩。自其于2021年8月启动以来,已经燃烧了超过四百万ETH。

5、总结

作为一个资产类别和更广泛的比特币/加密货币社区,我们已经走过了漫长的旅程,但我们看到了隧道尽头的光明……而且它正迅速接近,因为大多数数字资产都在朝着历史最高点前进。

当我进入我的第三个牛市周期时,我给你的建议,特别是如果你没有经历过这个市场或类似波动大的市场,是:

  • 制定获利策略。没有一种适合所有人的方法,所以要做适合自己的事情。

  • 不要使用杠杆/保证金交易,除非你知道你在做什么;使用止损是至关重要的,否则你很可能会遭受损失。如果你坚持这样做,我强烈建议你在用真钱交易之前使用模拟账户,并自行调查研究。

  • 从几个不同的来源获取建议,只要他们是知识渊博、理性并且有经验的。我说“几个”是因为可能会听取太多来源的意见,可能会得到相互冲突或误导的信息。我写了一篇文章介绍了我喜欢的加密货币评论员/作家。

在前进的过程中不要忘记获利,其中一些可以用来在比特币和加密货币市场最终崩溃时再次购买。如果历史重演的话,我认为这至少还需要12个月,但黑天鹅事件可能会出现并造成严重破坏,所以要有所准备。

为即将到来的几个月,甚至是2025年的价格进一步增长做好准备。

你认为在2024年至2025年的这个周期中,比特币、以太坊或你最喜欢的币种会涨到多高?在下方留下你的想法。


The omen of this bull market indicates that it will surpass the previous bull market. Bitcoin is about to hit a new historical high point. Biomimetic coins are skyrocketing. Ethereum is finally accelerating to a new high point. The bull market has indeed returned, but this time it is more active and appeared earlier than many people expected. Let's discuss the differences of this market in depth. Now many institutions have officially joined the bitcoin market. Strictly speaking, these institutions have joined for several years, probably since. 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Although Bitcoin is still the main topic, it still occupies more than half of the total market share. Ethereum is about to deploy the long-awaited scalability improvement and three new narratives that are not common in 2008. Artificial intelligence, artificial general intelligence and the latest popular abbreviation decentralized physical infrastructure online games have emerged to make money. And related cryptocurrencies are undergoing a revival, but the projects in the above categories are likely to cover them up when we enter this bull market. Since January, people have lost their minds about the release of related deep learning models, and the hype has increased. This is the text-to-video model that will be released soon. The exact date is expected to be released later this year, and the exact date is still to be determined. When the exact date is announced, it is expected that the related cryptocurrencies will be more than other numbers in the space. The performance of word assets is stronger, and assets closely related to artificial intelligence will also benefit from some related assets that deserve attention, including and therefore please pay close attention to these projects. Those who focus on improving the scalability of Ethereum have climbed in the ranking and performed well, and are other participants in this field. Some side chains also help Ethereum improve its scalability, but they exist in their own networks instead of sitting on Ethereum like that, which is one of the best performances in the past month, but it is still worth following. In the next few months, this will be the first bull market cycle. By ensuring that Ethereum transactions are cheaper and faster, it can demonstrate the combination of its functions with Ethereum from different sources in 2000. Now it can continue to process more than one transaction per second. I expect that this number will reach more than one transaction per second by the end of this year after considering the continuous improvement and the planned upgrade next week. This involves promoting distributed ledger technology, especially blockchain, for more practical use cases than just projects. It aims to communicate. By providing distributed and more cost-competitive alternatives, some examples include cloud computing, especially file storage and access for image and video rendering. Notable cryptocurrencies include improved and more affordable Internet access around the world, such as its related and decentralized car sharing or delivery services related to the Internet of Things, such as distributed video streaming sharing platforms covering various use cases, such as and It is a popular example. 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Ideally, they will be converted into Bitcoin and Ethereum to maintain the return on investment in the process of entering this bull market. On the contrary, those adventurers may panic and buy at the apex and then suffer losses, so it is finally expected that the prices of these currencies will plummet and overcome a series of disputes, collapses and lawsuits. Although Elizabeth Warren Garrigan, Brad Sherman and Nouriel Roubini, at least when it comes to bitcoin, we should not forget that Peter Shu Fei and Jamie Dimon hope that this field can be completely terminated, but it has once again demonstrated its power through the years from January to December. In the long bear market, we have to bear the impact of many high-profile collapses in this field and the list continues. Even the one that was once regarded as a model of cryptocurrency supervision in the United States was sued by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, and the chairman of the Commission, Garrigan Slender, was still under his leadership. However, when the US regulatory authorities were successfully forced to consider their application for converting bitcoin trusts into spot bitcoins, the situation began to change. In addition, US Supreme Court Judge Analisa Torres ruled that it was not a securities when trading on trading platforms and algorithms, such as decentralized trading platforms, thus winning partial victory for Ripple. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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