坎昆升级之后 以太坊L2的Gas费真的会降低10倍以上吗？

There is a consensus in today's market that after Cancun's upgrade, the average cost of Ethereum will be reduced by times or even higher. After the deployment of the core agreement of Cancun's upgrade, the main network of Ethereum will add a special space to store transaction and status data, and the maximum size of these status data stored in an independent market is estimated to be about 10 main network blocks, that is, the daily consumption of Ethereum's main network accounts for their total supply according to the supply and demand curve of economics. The total amount assumes that after Cancun's upgrade, the total demand of the users will remain unchanged, and the block space that Ethereum can sell has changed from the current block to a complete block, which is equivalent to doubling the total supply of block space, so the price will be reduced to the original, but this conclusion is not reliable because it presupposes too many linear relations and abstracts too many detailed factors that should be included in the calculation and consideration, especially the competition for space between users and the impact of game strategy on the price. According to the availability preservation fee, the state data preservation fee and the data availability verification fee are composed of two parts, among which the data availability preservation fee currently accounts for as much as Cancun's upgrade. For the farmers, the new blocks are equivalent to the new blocks of commons. According to Coase's theory of commons, in the market environment where the space in Ethereum is completely free to compete, there is a high probability that the leading leaders will abuse the space, which can ensure their market position on the one hand and squeeze the competition on the other. The opponent's living space is shown in the figure below, which shows the profit statistics of the family year. It can be found that their monthly profit scale shows obvious seasonal changes without obvious overall growth trend. In such an involution market with ceiling restrictions, people are in a state of zero-sum game that has been highly tense, and there is fierce competition for developers, funds and users. After Cancun's upgrade, there is another piece of space for their fierce competition. There is only so much meat, and you will eat less if others eat more. It is difficult to achieve Pareto optimal ideal situation. How will the leading leaders abuse the space? Personally, I guess that the frequency of modifying sequencers will be shortened from a few minutes to seconds to keep pace with the block output speed of the main network of Ethereum. This will not only improve the rapid confirmation of home transactions, but also occupy more space to suppress competitors. Under this competitive strategy, the verification fees and expenses will surge, which will limit the product of new space to reduce fees. As shown in the above figure, when the positive impact of space increase on fee reduction will decrease marginally and will almost fail after reaching a certain threshold. Based on the above analysis, I personally judge that the fee of Ethereum will decrease after Cancun upgrade, but the decline will not be as good as the market expectation. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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