现货ETF和坎昆升级 以太坊或将迎来爆发?

币圈资讯 阅读:37 2024-04-22 05:00:01 评论:0
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比特币现货ETF叙事犹在持续,在比特币大涨的背景下,以太坊也不甘寂寞出头来。

从外部环境来看,ETF的叙事再次来到以太坊,除了灰度外,目前已有贝莱德、富达、 VanEck等6家机构向SEC提交了现货ETF的发行申请,3月将迎来最近的一次审批潮。

而从内部条件而言,以太坊的确定性利好坎昆升级也已迫在眉睫;再质押协议在年初的再度兴起也让沉寂颇久的以太坊备受瞩目。2月20日,以太坊价格短时突破3000美元,创下2022年4月以来的最高纪录。

种种表现来看,台上的聚光灯,似乎真的照到了以太坊这边。

ETF的博弈,这次来到了以太坊

这厢比特币突破53000美元,那厢以太坊也不甘示弱。2月20日,以太坊短时突破3000美元,尽管后续滑落至2900美元左右,现报2958美元,但仍成功创下了近2年来的最高纪录。实际上,与23年比特币引领大盘增长略有不同的是,仅从今年来看,以太坊驱动超过了比特币,截至2月22日,以太坊上涨28%,而比特币上涨为21%。可以看出,从某个角度而言,当前的加密叙事逐渐转至以太坊身上。

以太坊近7日价格走势,来源:OKX

从叙事来看,当前以太坊主要有两大驱动因素,一是现货ETF的申请潮,二是即将到来的坎昆升级。现阶段最为重要的,无疑是可吸引传统资金入市的ETF。

从比特币来看,自11只比特币现货ETF被批后,尽管比特币经历过短时间的结利抛售,但在机构加持下,已有超过52亿美元净流入比特币ETF市场,带动比特币成功收复失地,现报51759美元。

正因为比特币ETF的成功经验,以太坊ETF的叙事也广受关注。截至目前,除了灰度在原有信托中申请了可转换现货ETF,其他包括贝莱德、富达、景顺、Hashdex、21shares、VanEck等6家机构均已提交了以太坊现货ETF的申请。在此前,SEC推迟了所有申请者的第一轮与第二轮申请,目前临近的审批日期是3月5日,最晚审批日期为7月,其中3、5月为密集审批期。

以太坊现货ETF申请一览,来源:彭博社

纵观比特币的申请历程,临近审批日反而是价格最易拉升与堆积的时期,本次以太坊的短期拉升也有此原因助力。仅从外部环境来看,以太坊与此前的比特币有着极为类似的情况,一是期货ETF已然被批,并在芝加哥商业交易所作为受监管的期货合约上市;二是申请机构颇为一致,均有大型金融巨头的进驻。

但从审批结果预测来看,行业内的预测口径仍存在差异。立足于可通过的机构普遍秉持期货已通过则难以拒绝现货的论点,毕竟在比特币的申请中,正是该点成功推动了比特币现货ETF的通过。彭博社分析师 Eric Balchunas就表示以太坊 ETF 获得批准的可能性为 70%,原因是SEC无法在期货ETF通过的基础上拒绝现货ETF,否则会引来诉讼。经纪公司Bernstein表示,以太坊现货ETF在5月份获得批准的可能性约为50%,几乎肯定会在未来12个月内获得批准。而渣打银行更是直接认为5月23日SEC将批准以太坊现货ETF。

而从拒绝口径来看,当前以太坊面临的情况与比特币略有不同,核心就是以太坊的属性认定问题。

在加密界,商品论与证券论的争议已旷日持久,证券论通常意味着要遵守更为严格的监管,而以太坊作为主流币的典型之一,其定性的代表意义重大。在公开场合,SEC明确表示过比特币是一种商品,但以太坊由于存在质押生息等特性,因而去年3月SEC主席Gary Gensler曾表示根据美国法律,使用质押协议的代币应被视为证券。

但值得注意的是,在去年币安的诉讼中,SEC曾明确将十余种代币列为证券,包括但不限于 Solana (SOL)、Cardano (ADA)、Polygon (MATIC)、Coti (COTI)、Algorand (ALGO)、Filecoin (FIL)、Cosmos (ATOM)、Sandbox (SAND)、Axie Infinity (AXS)、Decentraland (MANA)。然而,在整个诉讼中,SEC并未提及以太坊,而在被追问属性时,SEC主席也避而不谈,这让以太坊的监管属性愈发扑朔迷离。

在此背景下,也有众多机构认为以太坊现货ETF的审批难言顺利。摩根大通的一份报告表示未来3个月以太坊现货ETF不太可能获得批准,其支持将以太币归类为商品的观点,但认为美SEC不太可能会在5月前做出通过决定。而针对以太坊现货ETF将于2024年3月底获得批准这一论调,彭博分析师James Seyffart在X平台直言,”我用4枚ETH打赌这不会发生“。

争论一直延续至今。就在近日,美SEC就灰度以太坊信托(ETHE)转换为现货 ETF 的申请征求意见。Coinbase 从法律、技术和经济层面,在长达 27 页的评论信中讲述了SEC 应该批准该申请的理由,其认为当前市场共识已明确ETH是一种商品而非证券,同时强调ETH的权益证明(PoS)具有显著的治理能力,在所有权集中度、共识、流动性和治理方面表现出强大的特征,从而降低了欺诈和操纵的风险。而经济理论也表明,在满足 SEC ETP 批准标准方面,ETH与BTC均具有弹性,可应对系统以及市场性风险。

当然,对此,SEC尚未回应。

坎昆升级,以太坊的确定性叙事

相比尚在博弈中的现货ETF,以太坊第二大叙事则相当明确——坎昆升级(Dencun)。

升级是以太坊历年来的重要驱动之一,尤其是在转POS后,升级后通常会利好众多可扩展性板块。纵观每次升级提案的价格表现,德州大学奥斯汀分校的 Cesare Fracassi 和 Moazzam Khoja研究认为,在主要提案前的最后一次以太坊电话会议前的几周内,以太坊价格会上涨18%。而事实也基本一致,在去年上海升级时,尽管面临质押解锁抛压,以太坊价格不降反涨至2100美元。

以太坊近一年价格走势,来源:OKX

具体来看,本次坎昆升级原定于2023年10月,后由于各种原因持续推迟,根据最新消息,坎昆升级计划于2024年3月13日进行,为此以太坊客户端Geth已于2月9日发布 v1.13.12 版本,为以太坊主网坎昆硬分叉奠定基础。此次升级是以太坊实现进一步扩容的关键,能够增加以太坊网络每秒能够响应的交易量,也将开启以太坊数据存储和检索能力的发展新阶段。完成升级后,以太坊 Layer2 网络上的数字资产交易所需的Gas费用将显著降低,降幅或将达到14倍。可以看出,升级所带来的性能提升将极大利好以太坊的长期发展。

而在升级之外,近月来再质押协议的火热也推动了市场对于以太坊的关注。根据DefiLlama的数据,在暂时取消质押上限后,再质押协议迅速增长,目前在众多协议中排名第六,总TVL超69.9 亿美元。以典型项目EigenLayer为例,EigenLayer 的TVL从2月5日的21.5亿美元增长到2月10日的60.5亿美元。

以太坊的炒作,已然开始

在上述种种预期叠加下,以太坊也不负众望,再度突破3000美元。而从市场来看,大型机构也已用行动表现了对以太坊的看涨趋势,根据链上追踪器 Spotonchain,已有大量鲸鱼开始囤积以太坊,数据显示过去三天由未知钱包地址购买了大约65,000个ETH。稳定币供应量也体现出类似趋势,DefiLlama 数据显示,自1月1日以来,以太坊稳定币供应量增长了4.4%,从680亿美元增至710亿美元。

看似一切向好,但也有不少行业人士表达出其他的担忧。在比特币ETF通过后,比特币反而迅速跌落15%,直至一个月后才重返高地,该种情况也让众多人士认为以太坊ETF通过后也会面临巨大抛售。此外,考虑到质押机制的存在,评级机构标准普尔全球的分析师表示,以太坊 ETF 可能会“给区块链网络带来新的中心化风险”,原因是机构托管会让ETH的控制更为集中,尽管目前去中心化协议Lido已占据以太坊份额的31%。

但无论如何,围绕以太坊的炒作已然开始。一个典型的数据是,自2023年11月9日贝莱德首次提交以太坊现货ETF申请以来,以太坊价格上涨了27.9%。而此前,贝莱德首次提交比特币现货ETF申请后,比特币暴涨了55%。

以此来看,在ETF申请尚未尘埃落地前,机会与风险并存,其中的参与者们,也仅能保持警惕,管理头寸,毕竟无论外界如何FOMO,盈亏最终的落点,仍是由自身承受。


Bitcoin spot narrative is still going on. Under the background of bitcoin surge, Ethereum is unwilling to be lonely. From the external environment, the narrative has once again come to Ethereum. In addition to the gray scale, BlackRock Fidelity and other institutions have submitted spot issuance applications, and the latest approval tide will be ushered in. From the internal conditions, Ethereum's certainty is beneficial to Cancun's upgrade, and it is imminent. The re-emergence of the pledge agreement at the beginning of the year has also attracted the attention of Ethereum, which has been silent for a long time. Breaking through the US dollar for a short time has set a record high since January. From all kinds of performances, the spotlight in the stands seems to really shine on the game on the side of Ethereum. This time, I came to Ethereum, where bitcoin broke through the US dollar, and Ethereum was not to be outdone. Although it broke through the US dollar for a short time on March, it still succeeded in setting a record high in recent years. In fact, it is slightly different from the year when Bitcoin led the market growth. Only from this year, the drive of Ethereum surpassed the bitcoin deadline. It can be seen that from a certain point of view, the current encryption narrative is gradually transferred to Ethereum. From the narrative point of view, there are two main driving factors for Ethereum. One is the application tide of spot, the other is the upcoming Cancun upgrade. At this stage, the most important thing is undoubtedly to attract traditional funds to enter the market. From the perspective of Bitcoin, although Bitcoin has experienced a short period of profit-making selling, it has been blessed by institutions. There is a net inflow of more than 100 million dollars into the bitcoin market, which drives Bitcoin to successfully recover lost ground. It is precisely because of the successful experience of Bitcoin that the narrative of Ethereum is also widely concerned. Up to now, in addition to the gray scale, other institutions including BlackRock Fidelity Jing Shun have submitted the application for Ethereum spot, which has postponed the first and second rounds of all applicants' applications. At present, the latest approval date is January, and the month is the intensive approval period. Overview of the spot application of Ethereum Source Bloomberg Throughout the application process of Bitcoin, the approval date is approaching, but the price is the easiest to rise and accumulate. This short-term rise of Ethereum also has this reason to help. Only from the external environment, Ethereum is very similar to the previous bitcoin. First, futures have been approved and listed as regulated futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Second, the applicant institutions are quite consistent, with the presence of large financial giants, but from the forecast of the approval results, the industry is very similar. There are still differences in the forecast caliber within the company. The institutions that can pass generally hold the argument that it is difficult to reject the spot after the futures have passed. After all, it is this point that successfully promoted the spot of Bitcoin to pass the Bloomberg analyst's statement that it is impossible to reject the spot on the basis of the futures. Otherwise, it will lead litigation brokers to say that it is almost certain that the spot of Ethereum will be approved in the next month. However, Standard Chartered Bank directly believes that the spot of Ethereum will be approved on, and from the perspective of refusal, the current situation faced by Ethereum is slightly different from that of Bitcoin. The core is that the issue of the identification of Ethereum's attributes has been a long-standing dispute in the encryption industry. The theory of securities usually means that stricter supervision should be observed, and Ethereum, as one of the typical mainstream coins, is of great significance. In public, it has been clearly stated that Bitcoin is a commodity, but Ethereum is born because of the pledge. Interest rate and other characteristics, so last month, the chairman said that the tokens using the pledge agreement should be regarded as securities according to American law. However, it is worth noting that more than ten kinds of tokens were clearly listed as securities in the lawsuit of Qian 'an last year, including but not limited to. However, Ethereum was not mentioned in the whole lawsuit, and the chairman also avoided talking about it when asked about its attributes, which made the regulatory attributes of Ethereum more and more confusing. Under this background, many institutions thought that the approval of Ethereum spot was difficult to say smoothly. A report form in JPMorgan Chase. It shows that the spot of Ethereum is unlikely to be approved in the next month, and its support will be classified as a commodity in Thai currency. However, it is believed that the United States is unlikely to make a decision before the month, and in view of the argument that the spot of Ethereum will be approved at the end of next year, Bloomberg analysts bluntly said on the platform that I bet with a dollar that there will be no dispute, and it has continued to this day. Recently, the United States solicited opinions on the application for converting the gray Ethereum trust into a spot, which was described in a page-long comment letter from the legal, technical and economic aspects. The reason for the application is that the current market consensus has been clearly defined as a commodity rather than a security, and the equity emphasized at the same time has proved to have remarkable governance ability, showing strong characteristics in ownership concentration, consensus, liquidity and governance, thus reducing the risk of fraud and manipulation, while the economic theory also shows that in meeting the approval standards, it is still in the game compared with the deterministic narrative of Cancun's upgrading of Ethereum. The second narrative of the workshop is quite clear. Cancun upgrade is one of the important drivers of Ethereum over the years, especially after the upgrade, which usually benefits many scalability sectors. Looking at the price performance of each upgrade proposal, the research of the University of Texas at Austin thinks that the price of Ethereum will rise in the weeks before the last conference call of Ethereum before the main proposal, and the facts are basically the same. When upgrading in Shanghai last year, the price of Ethereum will rise to US dollars instead of falling. The source of the price trend of Taifang in recent years is specific. The Cancun upgrade was originally scheduled to be postponed for various reasons after years. According to the latest news, the Cancun upgrade plan was carried out on, for which the client of Ethereum released a version on, laying the foundation for the hard fork of the main network of Ethereum in Cancun. This upgrade is the key to further expansion of Ethereum, which can increase the transaction volume that Ethereum network can respond to every second and will also open a new stage of the development of data storage and retrieval capabilities of Ethereum. It can be seen that the performance improvement brought by the upgrade will greatly benefit the long-term development of Ethereum, and besides the upgrade, the fiery re-pledge agreement in recent months has also promoted the market's attention to Ethereum. According to the data, the re-pledge agreement has grown rapidly after the pledge ceiling has been temporarily lifted. At present, it ranks sixth among many agreements, with the typical project as an example, it has increased from $100 million on March to $100 million on March. Under the superposition of the above expectations, the hype of Ethereum has begun to break through the US dollar again. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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