我为何不再看好Layer2？

The author compiles the editor's note, and the investment assistant writes an article to express his value judgment on Ethereum. He thinks that there is a theoretical glass ceiling in the valuation. Ethereum guarantees the safety of activities through its consensus mechanism, so that the theoretically limited value should not exceed and some individuals may still perform well, but this is more due to special reasons than the general growth of the whole industry. In addition, he believes that radical token release and incentive measures will continue in this cycle until competition becomes obvious. As of last month, when the transaction price exceeded 100 million, I bluntly expressed optimism that the value of this red coin was seriously underestimated, resulting in an annualized cost of more than 10,000 US dollars, and just announced my vision. In other words, I will pay about 100 million US dollars for a chain ecosystem including the main network. As the upgrade approaches, it is expected to happen on March, as a direct beneficiary. At present, the increase has exceeded 100 million US dollars, so I think it is time to review the original investment argument. Because the main catalyst is playing a role, I am more skeptical about the possible further incremental increase. Don't get me wrong. I think the token with the wider ecosystem has become an important infrastructure in the Ethereum ecosystem, and it may still perform well in this cycle, but I still have some important problems about the valuation as a whole-the theoretical glass ceiling will be. The simple description of the relationship between Taifang and is that Ethereum ensures the safety of activities in the world. Based on this, the overall value should not exceed Ethereum in theory, because the consensus mechanism of Ethereum provides authenticity verification for the activities that have occurred. If a lower-cost chain is used to protect the activities that have occurred in a higher-cost chain, it is meaningless. Otherwise, why should we settle on this basic layer? Theoretically, we can even choose to settle on any blockchain. It ultimately depends on what characteristics these blockchains hope to inherit. For a second-tier that chooses to settle on Ethereum, this blockchain chooses the security provided by Ethereum verifiers through consensus mechanism, and it also chooses the accumulated liquidity of Ethereum and the bridge facilities also protected by Ethereum consensus mechanism. This assumption should be considered correct unless the settlement layer, namely service, becomes more commercialized or other universal in this cycle. Providing the same function set that Ethereum currently provides, as mentioned above, the rebuttal to this glass ceiling problem is that if anything can take off on a large scale in a way that attracts the next millions of users, it will become a real value-added, which may eventually penetrate into the basic layer of Ethereum, which will effectively lift the above glass ceiling. My only doubt about this view is that considering the current transaction valuation of Ethereum Billion, I think it is difficult to push Ethereum to a certain level only by encrypting the original currency. It needs a lot of external capital inflows, such as hope that it can be higher than some valuation targets set by us in this cycle. In the circle of fundamental cryptocurrency investors, security demand or money demand is still a relatively new concept. In infrastructure investment, it requires this school of thought to become the overall framework, and the value accumulation from return will usually be reduced by more than one order of magnitude. This problem will become more serious after the implementation of the upgrade, because the cost of sending data back to Ethereum will actually drop. It's more than twice as low, not to mention that it will process many transactions in batches, so the cost for processing twice as much on the Ethereum will be more than twice as high. According to the above logic, the collective will always be the whole subset of the Ethereum, because part of the reason for choosing to settle on the Ethereum is deep liquidity. When we hold a bullish bias against a single token, we are basically making the following assumptions, which will still double or triple the current situation. It is assumed that it will double the current level. At present, it exceeds 100 million, reaching a peak of more than 100 million in the last cycle, and each one is required to be three or four times the previous peak to have enough and provide enough room for tens of billions of dollars of transactions to make investment interesting. As a subset, it will continue to grow. Considering the main inclusion and newly created examples, the current total proportion has exceeded that through investment. We assume that this percentage can reach at least several times as early as January. There is only one such ratio in the market, which is about fast-forward to October, but this percentage has only doubled, which means that the average of each summary has been declining, and on this basis, your favorite, for example, or somehow managed to get more than those emerging and shiny giant farms, for example or even more. In view of the above two structural reasons, my optimism about the first as an industry has declined, and I think that individual may still perform well, but this is more. Due to special reasons, rather than the general growth of the whole industry, it will eventually be generalized to all second-tier technologies. I can think of two examples, including that it can still be a good agent for the entire super-chain ecosystem. Investors' bets will eventually attract the next batch of millions of retail investors because it is very close or successfully defeated and become a de facto encrypted social application. If you establish a partnership with institutions in Japan or traditional financial fields, it may have a parabolic trend or zero knowledge. Ming-driven aggregation papers have performed well and achieved atomic interoperability among all of them. It is hard for me to imagine that in a universe, just because it is excellent in business development, a single one can beat all competitors and eventually attract all first-line encrypted local partners such as games and agreements. Otherwise, how can we be optimistic and invest in anything? Three radical token redemption plans Another important factor to remember is that these new ones will be in the next week. Mid-term aggressive release schedule, which is why I have a bullish bias against older tokens such as Hehe in this case, because they have already experienced the steepest part of the release schedule. Of course, in hindsight, this is reflected in their relatively compressed valuation. The monthly aggressive unlocking of tokens has always been the fatal weakness of token prices, but as I said, compared with the future market value increment, the selling pressure of tokens will gradually weaken. By moving to tokens, the future annual inflation rate is only considered reasonable compared with other chains. On the other hand, some relatively new tokens will eventually. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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