探讨RWA的现实世界应用现状
作者:Qiao Wang,AllianceDAO;翻译:比特币买卖交易网xiaozou
以前人们认为,稳定币和其他代币化现实世界资产(RWA)是能够吸引普罗大众的加密应用类型。十年前,bitcointalk.org不胜其烦地谈论着汇款。几年前,随着智能合约链的出现,我们的行业开始设想华尔街将使用链上股票结算取代DTCC。
事实证明,第一波稳定币和RWA从未得到普通人或者加密不可知论者的采用。它们必须先经过加密原住民的采用。
例如,稳定币首先通过加密原住民找到了产品市场契合度,这些加密原住民进行跨交易所套利,并且需要一个免受加密资产波动风险的避风港。一旦稳定币基础设施建成并经过实战检验,加密无关用例就可以跟进了,包括支付、汇款和针对土耳其里拉、阿根廷比索等快速通胀货币的通胀对冲。这些用例从一开始就不是加密原生的,但链上和轶事证据表明,这些用例在南半球增长得非常快。
其他RWA可能会走同样的路线。美国国库券之所以能在链上运行,是因为在美联储将利率从0%上调至5%之后,加密原住民想要获得稳定的收益率。这些加密原住民中有许多是像MakerDAO这样的DAO和需要金库多样化的加密初创公司。加密无关用例也开始在此处出现。支持前美债国家进行USDC/USDT储蓄的加密新银行现在竞相为其客户提供安全的美债收益率。
这个两阶段采用曲线——加密原生采用和加密不可知论者采用——事后看来并不奇怪。对于任何加密产品来说,自然更容易首先被那些已经熟悉加密技术并具有必备基础设施(如自我保管钱包)的人采用。
现在的问题是,今天各种类型的RWA处于此两阶段采用曲线的什么位置?这些RWA最重要的用例是什么?
简单回答就是:
· 稳定币坚定地处于加密无关阶段。这一阶段最重要的用例是货币对冲和跨境支付。
· 其他RWAs,如国债、股票、房地产和奢侈手表等,都处于加密原生阶段。最重要的用例就是实现多样化。
1、稳定币:对冲和支付
稳定币每年的链上结算金额为10万亿美元,这样大规模的结算额让Paypal相形见绌,与Visa相当,与ACH(自动清算中心)系统处于一个数量级。只要稍微想一下就会意识到,在短短几年的发展中,这是一个多么惊人的成就。
同样引人注目的是,稳定币的总供应量约为1500亿美元。换句话说,每一美元每年在链上周转次数为60-70次。
如果没有一个无边界和无需许可的ledger账本,这些数据都是不可能实现的。对稳定币(以及通常的RWA)的一个常见的意识形态上的批评就是,它们并非真正的加密原生资产,所以无趣。但实用主义与意识形态截然不同。允许传统资产在这样一个无边界、无需许可的账本上自由流动的想法,是市场极为看重的,是根据经验做出的判断。
人们可以有理由认为,这种链上交易量的大部分都来自于投机活动,而并非“现实世界的使用”,如货币对冲和跨境支付。我们永远不会知道投机和实际使用之间的明确细分是什么,但即使每年100万亿美元的交易量中只有1%确实来自于现实世界的使用,这也将是一个天文数字。此外,我们的轶事与数据是一致的。
多年来,我们亲身体验了在线支付的魔力,我们经常使用USDC为初创公司提供资金支持。我们也知道,许多初创公司使用USDC/USDT来支付员工工资或供应商款项。但一年前,当AllianceDAO的Felipe告诉我们关于哥伦比亚的p2p稳定币市场的情况时,我们对这一领域产生了特别的兴趣,在那个市场上,人们在现实生活中的购物中心见面,用比索兑换Tron USDT。
在接下来的几个月里,我们关注了100多家与稳定币相关的初创公司,这些公司为拉丁美洲、非洲、东南亚和东欧的用户提供服务。最引人注目的是,大多数已发布产品的公司都至少出现了产品市场契合度(PMF)的早期迹象。我说的PMF是指每月增长10%以上,和团队知名度无关。
相比之下,该垂直领域之外的绝大多数加密初创公司都没还没有实现任何的PMF。
我们提供资金支持的一个非洲支付初创公司Accrue的创始人告诉我们,稳定币在他家里无处不在。他的妹妹用稳定币存了将近一年的学费,这使她免受加纳塞地那段时间经历的130%贬值的影响。然后,她用稳定币支持的借记卡支付了她在瑞典的硕士学费。他哥哥经常通过Accrue和Kraken的稳定币将钱从GHS(加纳塞地)兑换到CAD(加元)。他在加纳的父母经常通过Accrue的代理网络,使用稳定币给他们在尼日利亚的亲戚寄钱。
我们支持的另一家非洲稳定币初创公司GoBankless的创始人讲述了一个痛苦的生与死的故事。南非一家医院拒绝接收一名来自莫桑比克的病人,要等到付款结算完才能接受。但法币支付方式无法结算,因为属于跨境(莫桑比克和南非)结算,而且那是正处于银行正常营业时间之外。所以病人和医院使用稳定币进行结算。这不是一次性事件,因为邻国患者由于本国医疗基础设施差或根本就没有医疗基础设施而经常前往南非就医。
这些都是日常人们使用稳定币来解决生活中重要问题的例子。这就是稳定币采用的加密无关阶段。
2、其他RWAs:多样化
稳定币只是第一种也是最突出的RWA类别。其他类资产也纷纷来到链上。
现在有3万亿美元(约占全球财富的1%)存储在链上。这又是一个惊人的数据。这些财富的持有者可以用它们做两件事。他们可以单纯把它们作为一种价值储存手段,或者使用它们交换其他东西。
到目前为止,在加密货币的历史上,当他们进行加密货币交换时,他们大多是将其交换为另一种加密资产,希望卖出更高的价格或产生一些收益。这些加密资产的问题在于它们是高度相关和高度波动的。随着加密资产类别相对于其他资产类别达到成熟的规模时,多元化必然会出现。
多样化是一种简单但已被证实的需求。全球最大的对冲基金Bridgewaters将其全部理念(全天候投资组合)建立在这样一个理念之上:将不相关的收益来源组合在一起,可以产生更高的经风险调整后的收益率。他们已经成长为对冲基金领域最大的资产管理公司,这一事实证明了投资者对多元化的需求。同样的道理,BTC ETF需求强劲,因为它为TradFi资产配置者提供了一个不相关的收益来源。
RWAs是加密原住民对多样化需求的回答,使他们能够获得不相关且波动性较小的新收益来源。RWAs之于加密原住民,就像BTC ETF之于TradFi资产配置者。
2023年,MakerDAO在不到一年的时间里将其RWA投资组合从几乎为零增长到40亿美元,这让我们感到震惊。如今,其中的大部分是美国国债。最近,贝莱德与Coinbase共同推出了1亿美元的美国国债代币化计划。Ondo持有2亿美元的美国国债。Franklin Templeton也有一只3亿美元的链上美国国债基金。比赛开始了。
与1500亿美元的稳定币相比,40亿美元似乎是小巫见大巫。但这主要是因为稳定币已经存在了近十年。另一方面,从定义上讲,美国国债在两年前才开始的后零利率时代才变得有吸引力。用户需要更多的时间来适应新产品的可靠性。它们是否正确地跟踪了指数?创建和赎回过程是否无缝衔接?二级市场有足够的流动性吗?
继美国国债之后,接下来就是美国股票和美国房地产。法律挑战是真实存在的,但一旦这些问题得到解决,就没有根本理由压抑对代币化的美国股票和美国房地产(类似于美国国债)的需求。我们预计,对美国股票和房地产的大部分需求将来自海外。我们支持的一家提供代币化美国股票的初创公司Dinari看到了来自中国和俄罗斯的强劲需求。国际上对美国股票和房地产的需求目前未能得到满足,主要原因是资本管制、经纪账户创建困难以及全球资金流动的摩擦。例如,在中国,由于资本管制,开设币安账户比开设美国股票经纪账户更容易。在俄罗斯,由于乌克兰战争,普通人被美国禁止参与美国市场。如果美国资产可以作为RWAs在链上自由交易,那么国际投资者所需要做的就是找到一种从法币入金兑换为加密货币的方法。不再有金融迷宫。
反对这些产品的一个常见的经济学论点是,加密原生资产和收益率提供的回报率更高。现实情况是,这些加密原生资产和收益率太过相似了。例如,Ethena实际上只是一个ETH beta,因为ETH上涨时基差会变宽。另一方面,股票和房地产都是不相关的收益源,可供3万亿美元的链上财富开发利用。
一旦这些RWAs基础设施发展成熟,我们还认为有可能出现加密无关用例。例如,使用股票和房地产作为贷款抵押品的能力,或者任何人都可以在链上构建全球投资组合的能力(无需为每项资产应付法律和银行迷宫)。但这将是RWA采用的第二阶段——加密无关阶段。
3、结论
多年来,我们一直在问自己这样一个问题——我们的第一个非投机性的杀手级应用将是什么。主流媒体TradFi/Web2甚至是加密社区本身都没有意识到我们实际上已经有了一个这样的应用。那就是加密不可知论者使用稳定币来对冲货币贬值以及进行跨境支付。然而,由于稳定币的价格不会剧烈波动,而且往往会被新兴市场所采用,因此它们在很大程度上被Twitter上的讨论所忽视。
但稳定币只是第一种类型的RWAs。已有早期迹象显示加密原住民对链上资产的需求被压抑了。下一步自然是将股票、房地产甚至是奢侈品手表代币化。这些历来不相关的高质量收益源现在可以为数万亿美元渴望多样化的链上财富所用。
In the past, people thought that stable coins and other token real-world assets were encryption applications that could attract the general public. Ten years ago, they talked endlessly about remittances. A few years ago, with the emergence of intelligent contract chains, our industry began to imagine that Wall Street would use online stock settlement instead of the first wave of stable coins, which had never been adopted by ordinary people or encryption agnostics. They must be adopted by encrypted aborigines first, for example, stable coins first passed. The crypto-aborigines have found the product market fit. These crypto-aborigines arbitrage across exchanges and need a safe haven from the fluctuation risk of crypto-assets. Once the stable currency infrastructure is built and tested in actual combat, the crypto-irrelevant use cases can be followed up, including remittance payment and inflation hedging against fast-inflating currencies such as Turkish lira and Argentine peso. These use cases were not crypto-native from the beginning, but chain and anecdotal evidence show that these use cases have grown very rapidly in the southern hemisphere. Soon, others may take the same route. The reason why US Treasury bills can run on the chain is that after the Federal Reserve raised the interest rate from to, the crypto-aborigines want to obtain a stable rate of return. Many of these crypto-aborigines are crypto-startups that need diversified vaults. The crypto-unrelated use cases have also begun to appear here. The crypto-new banks that support the former US debt countries to save are now competing to provide their customers with a safe rate of return on US debt. This two-stage crypto-native mining is adopted. In hindsight, it is not surprising that it is easier for any encryption product to be first adopted by those who are already familiar with encryption technology and have the necessary infrastructure, such as self-preservation wallets. The question now is where are the various types of today's adoption curves in these two stages? What are the most important use cases? The simple answer is that the stable currency is firmly in the encryption-independent stage. The most important use cases in this stage are currency hedging and cross-border payment, such as national debt. Stocks, real estate and luxury watches are all in the original stage of encryption. The most important use case is to realize diversification, stable currency hedging and payment. The annual online settlement amount of stable currency is trillions of dollars, which dwarfs and is equivalent to the automatic clearing center system. As long as you think about it a little, you will realize what an amazing achievement this is in just a few years of development. It is equally striking that the total supply of stable currency is about hundreds of millions of dollars, in other words, every beauty. The number of yuan's annual turnover in the chain is the second. If there is no borderless and license-free account book, these data are impossible to realize. A common ideological criticism of stable coins and usual is that they are not really encrypted original assets, so pragmatism is very different from ideology. The idea of allowing traditional assets to flow freely in such a borderless and license-free account book is that the market attaches great importance to judgments based on experience and people can have reasons. It is believed that most of this online transaction volume comes from speculative activities rather than real-world use, such as currency hedging and cross-border payment. We will never know what the clear subdivision between speculation and actual use is, but even if only the trillion-dollar transaction volume does come from real-world use every year, it will be an astronomical figure. In addition, our anecdotes are consistent with the data. For many years, we have experienced the magic of online payment. We often use it to provide funds for start-ups We also know that many start-ups use it to pay employees' salaries or suppliers' money, but when we were told about Colombia's stable currency market a year ago, we became particularly interested in this field. In that market, people met in real-life shopping centers and exchanged pesos. In the next few months, we paid attention to a number of start-ups related to stable currency, which provided services to users in Latin America, Africa, Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe, the most striking of which were. But most companies that have released products have at least shown early signs of product market fit. I mean, the monthly growth has nothing to do with team popularity. In contrast, most encryption startups outside this vertical field have not yet achieved anything. The founder of an African payment startup that we provide financial support told us that stable coins are everywhere in his home, and his sister saved her tuition for nearly one year with stable coins, which saved her from the experience in Ganace. Then she paid her master's tuition in Sweden with a debit card backed by stable currency. His brother often exchanged money from Ganace to Canadian dollars through stable currency. His parents in Ghana often used stable currency to send money to their relatives in Nigeria through the agency network. The founder of another African stable currency startup we supported told a painful story of life and death. A hospital in South Africa refused to accept a patient from Mozambique until the payment was settled. It can only be accepted after the calculation, but the payment method in French currency cannot be settled. Because it is a cross-border settlement between Mozambique and South Africa, and it is outside the normal business hours of banks, patients and hospitals use stable currency for settlement. This is not a one-time event, because patients in neighboring countries often go to South Africa for medical treatment because of poor or no medical infrastructure at all. These are examples of people using stable currency to solve important problems in their lives. This is the encryption irrelevant order adopted by stable currency. Other diversified stable currencies are only the first and most prominent category, and other assets have also come to the chain. Now there are trillions of dollars stored in the chain, which accounts for about the global wealth. This is another amazing data. The holders of these wealth can do two things with them. They can simply use them as a means of value storage or exchange them for other things. So far, in the history of cryptocurrencies, when they exchange cryptocurrencies, they mostly exchange them for another kind of addition. Secret assets hope to sell at a higher price or generate some income. The problem with these encrypted assets is that they are highly correlated and highly volatile. Diversification is bound to occur when the category of encrypted assets reaches a mature scale compared with other asset categories. It is a simple but proven demand. The world's largest hedge fund bases its all-weather investment portfolio on this idea, which can generate higher risk-adjusted income by combining unrelated income sources. The fact that they have grown into the largest asset management company in the hedge fund field proves investors. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台
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