神鱼：本轮牛市或无「山寨季」

The original source of the original author The original source of the dynamic zone moves towards Hong Kong Carnival. During the period, Shenyu shared how the pattern of halving will affect the market. Interestingly, he also shared the state of mind of his own investment at this stage. The current daily emission of bitcoin is about 10,000 to 10,000 dollars. When halving, the block reward will be directly reduced by half. I asked Shenyu about how much increase his views on the market of counterfeit coins will be after halving this bitcoin and expected that there will be no cottage season this time because there is a high probability. At present, the market is different from the previous one. From the miners' point of view, the risk hedging has been carried out several months in advance after the bitcoin spot was passed on January to deal with the risk of halving bitcoin. In addition, we have seen that many listed companies have used the good news passed to raise a large amount of legal tender funds, and some mining companies have moved their mines to South America and Africa with lower costs, which has reduced their sensitivity to costs and allowed them to maintain a gross profit margin of about 50% even in Bitcoin. Under the circumstances, the economic impact of these miners is relatively small, especially considering that the price of bitcoin has risen before halving. For investors, especially those who invest in counterfeit coins, the characteristic of this cycle is that funds mainly flow into bitcoin through equal channels. As for when these funds will flow to other cryptocurrencies, we are still observing. In May last year, Shenyu once evaluated that the absolute bottom of the bear market was over at that time, and the cryptocurrency industry is in the state of seeking new narrative logic development. Stage What is the position of cryptocurrency market for this cycle? I think the high probability is that in the middle of bull market, the market has started to pick up and found a new narrative logic, but it is not in a state of very high leverage. Shenfish also reminds readers that because the market is a complex system of dynamic multi-party games, it is often not suitable for the current situation to predict the top of the market only by relying on a single indicator or historical data. He suggests that the best way is to continuously observe the development of the market and reach a certain level. This method of asset rebalancing and redistribution at the stage can help them maintain a stable mentality when the market falls rapidly or enters a bear market, and may improve their absolute rate of return. In the review at the end of the year, Shenyu once said that the development of Bitcoin ecology was a little unexpected. For many bitcoin valuers, it may be unnecessary to look at the current situation, not only good but also good. Now, the ecology can be said to be full of flowers and users are involved. The capital is also quite amazing. Shenfish shared his views on the current bitcoin ecology. At present, the bitcoin system can be divided into two parts. First, the main chain of bitcoin is mainly used as a value store, and it is difficult to make major updates or iterations. Its core function is to ensure decentralization and relative stability. On this basis, many innovative attempts that have gradually emerged from the bottom are also going on. Over the past year or so, we have also seen many interesting attempts that have emerged from the bottom up. Finally, we found that it is still necessary to innovate on the first layer of bitcoin. It is more difficult to choose a second-tier or side-chain form to develop. In addition, although lightning network and other technologies lack bottom-up application scenarios, the recent economic incentives have solved this problem to some extent, attracting a large number of real users to try in the ecology. This is a gratifying progress, and we are also closely observing the development trend of these second-tier and side-chain technologies. At present, it is still in its infancy, and now it is such a state. A large number of assets are deposited on Bitcoin, but these assets have an urgent need to earn income from Ethereum. These needs have not been met for a long time in the past. These scenes suddenly emerged, and everyone will test and try to taste the final state of Bitcoin ecology. Now it is not so obvious, but these attempts are good. We need to try and finally get out of a path. We also talked about what challenges Bitcoin ecological god fish is facing at present. He thinks that although it is difficult, In the early stage, however, the ecology is moving in an optimistic direction. I think some big companies and their early views on the Bitcoin ecosystem show a positive trend. Even though some members of the team may not like the new changes, they can't stop these developments. This is the charm of decentralized networks. This network naturally promotes a lot of market demand and innovative gameplay. Even though these innovations may seem clumsy in the early days, many things that emerged in the early Ethereum are chaotic. Unfortunately, it is full of all kinds of problems, but there are indeed successful cases in the end. The same is true for Bitcoin. We should observe it more and give it enough time and patience to develop. There should be some revolutionary new developments. At present, we are still in the early stage of this process. Last month, the core developers of Bitcoin published a paper bombarding that the inscription was actually an attack on Bitcoin network and hoped to repair it before the latest version in 2008, which became the main plunge at that time. One of the factors, the mobile zone also takes this opportunity to ask Shen Yu's opinion that the ecosystem of Bitcoin is a process composed of three-way games. The core developers develop code and submit proposals. Miners use computing power to vote whether to support and take effect. Finally, users vote. This structure ensures the decentralized nature of the system, which means that even a feature or a new idea cannot be rejected unilaterally. This decentralization is a big advantage of Bitcoin compared with other tokens or chains in the current state. It is difficult for a single entity to decide the future direction of any spontaneous new development on the downlink. With the maturity of the cryptocurrency market, including the launch of Wall Street and the gradual compliance of exchanges, traditional banks and custodians have entered the cryptocurrency field. What does this mean for their commitment to wallet custody since 2000? First of all, this is a good thing. For a long time in history, there has been a problem for new users in the cryptocurrency industry, especially small white users, that is, I know encryption. Money may be valuable and have a future, but how should I store it safely after purchase? With the development of modular blockchain narrative, the performance of blockchain will be gradually solved in the next two to three years. The final possible state is that many applications we use use blockchain technology at the bottom, but users don't feel it, such as wallets based on smart wallets without private keys. Users have it when they don't feel it, and they have a lot of experience on the chain in a relatively decentralized way. The development of wallet technology without private keys will eventually enable a large number of users to really use blockchain in various scenarios. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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