乘着加密货币浪潮:投资者能否安全地面对欣欣向荣的市场状况?

币圈资讯 阅读:40 2024-04-22 03:26:26 评论:0
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当比特币突破 69,000 美元的水平并创下新的历史高点时,就进入了所谓的“欣快区”——市场周期的一个阶段,其特点是投资者极度乐观和投机狂热。

随着即将到来的四月减半即将到来,所有围绕它的炒作只会进一步推动繁荣。随着越来越多的投资者涌入市场,这种情绪导致比特币价格上涨,从而使乐观情绪和价格上涨的自我强化循环永久化。

但是,当该事件进入市场时,我们可以预期会发生什么?从历史上看,减半对投资者的行为模式产生了严重影响,今年我们已经走在了前面。那么,在当前的大涨行情中,投资者该如何调整策略呢?让我们仔细看看。

1、2020 年与 2024 年减半:比特币的背景发生了怎样的变化?

此次减半将是 BTC 历史上的第四次减半。自 2020 年上一次事件以来,比特币在主流采用方面取得了长足进步,监管框架和技术基础设施方面的显着进步凸显了这一点。

在最近发生的事件中,比特币 ETF 的引入也极大地将投资者的积极情绪推向新的高度。美国证券交易委员会的批准标志着比特币被接受为合法投资资产的一个重要里程碑。此外,ETF 还为新的投资者群体(包括财务顾问和资本市场配置者)拓宽了使用 BTC 的渠道。这种更广泛的准入会吸引大量资本流入。

随着比特币继续受到机构投资者和散户交易者的青睐,人们对 2024 年减半事件的预期有所提高,预计其对市场动态的潜在影响。

2、历史新高的时机如何影响投资者的立场?

从历史上看,比特币在减半事件后经历了显着的价格波动,因为区块奖励的减少导致进入市场的新比特币供应量减少。随着需求的增加和供应量的有限,比特币的吸引力被放大,进一步推动了投资兴趣。

然而,2024 年减半之前的情况已经与众不同,比特币在减半事件发生之前就达到了 73,000 美元的历史新高。这种与过去模式的背离表明市场情绪正在超前于历史模式,四月份减半后的动态可能与之前的情况有很大不同。

在今年比特币减半的背景下,古老的交易格言“买谣言,卖新闻”可能被证明是合适的。在对该事件的预期推动下,投资者正在积极积累比特币,从而“买谣言”。然而,一旦事件过去,他们可能会进行获利了结,而不是进一步推高价格,从而“卖出消息”。 

鉴于今年的市场动态比之前的周期发生得更快,一旦减半事件过去,比特币价格可能不会再围绕这一消息上涨。如果投资者选择走获利了结之路,这将体现市场对未来事件的定价能力并进行相应调整,从而导致一段时间的价格修正和重新调整。

3、小心屈服于欣快感区

投资者需要谨慎行事并保持平衡的比特币投资方式,特别是在我们现在看到的欣喜时期。虽然对巨额回报的潜力感到兴奋是很自然的,但欣快区的特点也在于波动性加剧。许多投资者可能忽视了推动比特币价值的基本因素,而只关注短期价格上涨,这可能导致不可持续的市场动态。

与此同时,出于多种原因,价格调整是任何资产上涨轨迹中自然且必要的一部分。价格快速持续上涨可能导致估值过高,即资产价格超过其内在价值。这可能会产生投机泡沫,而投资者的热情比其他任何因素都更能推动这一泡沫。价格调整有助于消除此类泡沫,使资产价格回到其真实价值并恢复市场平衡。

至于这次修正何时发生,很难确定。交易者应该记住,市场通常没有固定的波峰或波谷。仅仅因为资产的价格已经达到高点并不一定意味着它必须再次下跌。反之亦然。这凸显了市场的不可预测性以及交易决策需要谨慎。

当投资者应对 2024 年减半带来的机遇和不确定性时,正确了解市场动态和风险管理策略对于实现潜在回报最大化至关重要。如果您打算投资比特币,请确保在正确考虑其长期可行性和所涉及的风险因素后,您的投资理由正确。


When Bitcoin broke through the level of the US dollar and reached a new historical high, it entered a stage of the so-called euphoria zone market cycle, which is characterized by investors' extreme optimism and speculative fanaticism. With the coming half of April, all the hype surrounding it will only further promote prosperity. With more and more investors pouring into the market, this sentiment will lead to the rise of Bitcoin prices, thus making the self-reinforcing cycle of optimism and price increase permanent. But when this event enters the market, we can Looking at what is expected to happen, halving bitcoin has had a serious impact on investors' behavior patterns historically. This year, we have already taken the lead, so how should investors adjust their strategies in the current soaring market? Let's take a closer look at what has happened to the background of halving bitcoin year by year. This halving will be the fourth halving in history. Since the last incident in, bitcoin has made great progress in mainstream adoption, and remarkable progress has been made in the regulatory framework and technical infrastructure. In view of this, the introduction of Bitcoin in recent events has also greatly pushed investors' positive emotions to a new height. The approval of the US Securities and Exchange Commission marks an important milestone in the acceptance of Bitcoin as a legal investment asset. In addition, it has broadened the channels for new investor groups, including financial consultants and capital market allocators. This wider access will attract a large amount of capital inflows. As Bitcoin continues to be favored by institutional investors and retail traders, people are interested in the year 2008. The expectation of the halving event has improved, and its potential impact on market dynamics is expected. How does the timing of a record high affect investors' positions? Historically, bitcoin has experienced significant price fluctuations after the halving event, because of the reduction of block rewards, the supply of new bitcoin entering the market has decreased. With the increase of demand and the limited supply, the attractiveness of bitcoin has been amplified, which has further promoted investment interest. However, the situation before the halving event has been different. This deviation from the past pattern shows that the market sentiment is ahead of the historical pattern, and the dynamics after halving bitcoin in April may be very different from the previous situation. Under the background of halving bitcoin this year, the old trading adage of buying rumors and selling news may prove to be appropriate. Driven by the expectation of this event, investors are actively accumulating bitcoin to buy rumors, but once the event passes, they may take profits instead of further pushing up prices. The selling news, in view of the fact that this year's market dynamics happen faster than the previous cycle, once the halving event has passed, the price of bitcoin may not rise around this news again. If investors choose to take the profit-taking road, it will reflect the pricing ability of the market for future events and make corresponding adjustments, which will lead to a period of price correction and readjustment. Be careful to succumb to the euphoria zone, and investors need to be cautious and maintain a balanced bitcoin investment method, especially when we are happy now. Although it is natural to be excited about the potential of huge returns, the euphoria zone is also characterized by increased volatility. Many investors may ignore the basic factors driving the value of Bitcoin and only pay attention to the short-term price increase, which may lead to unsustainable market dynamics. At the same time, price adjustment is a natural and necessary part of any asset's upward trajectory for various reasons, and the rapid and sustained price increase may lead to overvaluation, that is, the asset price exceeds its intrinsic value, which may lead to speculative bubbles. The enthusiasm of investors can promote this bubble more than any other factor. Price adjustment is helpful to eliminate this kind of bubble, return the asset price to its true value and restore the market balance. As for when this correction will happen, it is difficult to determine. Traders should remember that the market usually has no fixed peak or trough. Just because the asset price has reached a high point does not necessarily mean that it must fall again, and vice versa. This highlights the unpredictability of the market and the need for caution in trading decisions. It is very important to understand the market dynamics and risk management strategies correctly when the opportunities and uncertainties brought by halving the annual income are realized. If you plan to invest in Bitcoin, please make sure that your investment reasons are correct after correctly considering its long-term feasibility and risk factors involved. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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