牛市中如何交易?投资链本身还是龙头Defi项目?

币圈资讯 阅读:30 2024-04-22 02:25:12 评论:0
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作者:大葱 Fred 来源:X,@Dacongfred

减半的时间越来越近了,最近在香港和朋友交流探讨投资策略,讨论到如何在牛市交易中赚到最多的钱?在讨论和进一步研究之后,有了一些反直觉的发现,和大家一起讨论交流。

核心探讨的问题:是否可以通过重仓公链上的ROI最高的token,来捕捉和放大公链叙事的收益?

核心推演思路分三步:

1、公链叙事

2、公链上的放大器选择逻辑

3、公链token VS 放大器 token 收益对比

1、链的叙事

首先第一步是寻找自己看好的链的叙事,每一个周期都会有许多涨幅突出的链,比如上一个周期在代币价格涨幅上表现很出色的链Fantom(600多倍)、SOL(500多倍)、BNB(40多倍)、ETH(20多倍)、Avalanche(20多倍)、Near(20倍)、BTC(8倍)等等。

在这一轮的牛市爆发期,也会有许多公链/Layer2(无论新旧)有可能再次爆发,Solana、Base、Blast、Sui、Aptos、Eth等等。

以我个人为例,在23年下半年研究了一圈之后,很看好Solana,于是在Sol价格20,处于无人问津的低谷期时重仓了Sol并且长持,到峰值翻了10多倍,目前的价格也还有9倍。从20的时候就和身边朋友分享上车,即使是40上车的朋友现在也有四五倍。可以看出研究的力量在crypto市场中的反馈还是很明显的。

除了Sol之外,这个周期也有很多其他的链也是非常值得关注的,在这里不详细探讨具体在这个牛市应该布局哪个链,重要的是选择一个链buy in。如果大家感兴趣的话,在后面的文章再和大家一起交流。

2、公链上的放大器选择

假设我们选择了几个看好的公链叙事,接下来我们来看看有哪些潜在的token是公链的放大器,可以这个链起飞后,赚的收益比链本身的token更高。

如何选择放大器,有一个关键的前提:选择公链β叙事的放大器,而不是α。

在每一个链上有非常多的项目可能是放大器:

1、Meme。以solana生态为例,Bome、Wif、Slerf等等Meme千娇百媚。然而Meme的特点大家都知道,层出不穷的Meme中大部分都如烟花般绚烂但易逝,并且在牛市中的寿命往往显著短于其他类型的项目和链本身。不太适合作为公链这个β叙事的放大器,更适合从α的逻辑去投资。

2、游戏。例如上个周期的Axie、Stepn的token涨幅倍数都非常惊人,然而游戏的特点在于1)和链的绑定性程度不高,以及可能考虑多链;2)游戏本身更偏向α的捕捉,哪个游戏能成为龙一龙二并不像Defi那样一目了然。

3、DeFi。Defi是最可能的潜在放大器,核心原因有2个:1)Defi和链的绑定非常深,通常是官方扶持或者是重度合作的项目;2)Defi的龙一龙二很一目了然,看看TVL、Volume就能比较直观的发现。

除了上述的类型之外,也可能会有一些链额外发力的赛道,比如DePIN、AI、RWA等领域,或许也会有一些类似Defi一样明显的龙一龙二出现,不过整体来说属性相对也更偏向α逻辑。因此我们选择Defi作为潜在的公链放大器进行进一步分析。

3、公链token VS  公链龙一/龙二 Defi 收益对比

接下来让我们看看上个周期中表现不错的链以及链上龙头Defi项目的收益情况。

数据规范:计算的时间是以上一次BTC减半(2020年5月)作为起点,计算从减半(2020年5月)到牛市峰值(2021年4月和11月左右)的表现;如果在减半时Defi项目还为发币,则以发币时作为起点计算到峰值的表现。

选取了在上个牛市期间涨幅在20倍以上的链和Defi进行对比:

Fantom从减半开始是600多倍,Fantom上的SpookySwap 3倍不到,SpiritSwap翻了5倍。

SOL从减半开始翻了500多倍,Serum翻了8倍,Ray从最低到最高是5倍(但减半时是高点,买的时候不一定是低点,反而可能买在高点被套住了),Orca是6倍左右。

BNB从减半开始是40多倍,BNB上的Pancakeswap是30多倍。

ETH从减半开始翻了20多倍,ETH上的DEX uniswap翻了12倍,Sushiswap翻了8倍。

Avalanche从减半开始是20多倍,Avalanche上的Joe是130多倍。

Near从减半开始是20倍左右,Near上的Defi 聚合器 Ref Finance 2倍不到。

通过数据我们可以发现,除了Avalanche上的Joe以外,绝大部分链的头部defi项目都没有跑赢链本身。

从这个角度来说,如果希望以β的方式获利,那么“链的β叙事的放大器” < 链的token,直接购买看好的链的token反而ROI更高。


The author's time to halve the source of green onions is getting closer and closer. Recently, I talked with friends in Hong Kong to discuss investment strategies and how to make the most money in bull market transactions. After discussion and further research, I made some counter-intuitive findings and discussed with you whether the core discussion can capture and amplify the benefits of public chain narrative through the highest position in the public chain. The core deduction idea is divided into three steps: public chain narrative amplifier selection logic public chain amplifier income comparison chain narrative. First of all, the first step is to find the narrative of the chain that you are optimistic about. There will be many chains with outstanding gains in each cycle, such as the chain that performed very well in the token price increase in the previous cycle, and so on. In this round of bull market outbreak, there will also be many public chains, whether old or new, which may erupt again. Take me personally as an example. After studying for a circle in the second half of the year, I was very optimistic, so I put in a heavy position when the price was at the low point of nobody's interest and kept it for many times until the peak. The previous price has doubled, and I shared it with friends around me when I was young. Even the friends who got on the bus now have four or five times. It can be seen that the feedback of the research power in the market is still obvious. In addition, there are many other chains in this cycle, which is also very worthy of attention. Here, I will not discuss in detail which chain should be laid out in this bull market. It is important to choose a chain. If you are interested, I will share with you the following article about the amplifier selection on the public chain. We have chosen several promising public chain narratives. Next, let's take a look at what are the potential public chain amplifiers. After this chain takes off, it can earn higher profits than the chain itself. How to choose an amplifier has a key premise, instead of choosing an amplifier with public chain narratives. There may be many projects in each chain, such as amplifiers taking ecology as an example, and so on. Everyone knows that most of them are gorgeous but fleeting like fireworks, and their life span in the bull market is often obvious. Short of other types of projects and chains, it is not suitable as the amplifier of the public chain narrative, but more suitable for investing in games from the logic. For example, the increase multiples of the last cycle are very amazing. However, the characteristics of the game are that the degree of binding with the chain is not high, and it may be considered that the multi-chain game itself is more biased to capture which game can become Dragon Yi Long II, which is not as obvious as that. The core reason of the potential amplifier is that there is a very deep binding with the chain, usually official support or heavy. The Dragon Yi Long II of the degree cooperation project can be found intuitively at a glance. Besides the above types, there may also be some tracks with extra power. For example, there may also be some similar and obvious Dragon Yi Long II in other fields, but overall, the attributes are relatively more logical, so we choose to be a potential public chain amplifier for further analysis. Next, let's take a look at the chains that performed well in the last cycle and the dragons on the chain. The standard calculation time of the income data of the first project is the last halving year and month as the starting point to calculate the performance from halving year to bull market peak year and month or so. If the project is still issuing money at halving time, it is calculated at the time of issuing money as the starting point to calculate the performance to peak value. The chain sum that increased by more than twice in the last bull market period is selected for comparison, and it is less than doubled from halving to doubling from halving to doubling from lowest to highest, but it is not at the time of buying at a high point. It must be a low point, but it may be trapped at a high point. It is multiple times since halving. It is multiple times since halving. It is multiple times since halving. It is multiple times since halving. It is about twice as much as the aggregator. From the data, we can find that most of the chain's head items have not outperformed the chain itself. From this perspective, if you want to make a profit in a new way, the direct purchase of the chain's narrative amplifier chain is higher. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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