鹰派“点阵图”重挫加密市场！比特币价格触及一个月低点

　　全球最大市值加密货币——比特币的交易价格触及一个月以来的最低点，主要的逻辑可能在于数字资产投资产品的资金外流速度加快，以及美联储设定的长期借贷成本趋于上升的前景削弱了加密货币市场整体估值。周二，最大市值加密货币比特币价格一度下跌近3%，达到了5月中旬的水平，随后跌幅有所收窄目前在65,740美元附近徘徊。以太坊、Solana和Dogecoin等规模较小的加密货币价格则出现不同程度下跌。

The world's largest market value encrypted currency – Bitcoin's transaction prices have reached their lowest point in a month, and the main logic may be that the rapid outflow of funds from digital asset investment products and the prospect set by the Fed of rising long-term borrowing costs have weakened the overall valuation of the crypto-currency market. On Tuesday, the price of the largest market value encrypted currency fell by almost 3 per cent, to mid-May levels, and the decline has since narrowed around $65,740. The prices of smaller encrypted currencies, such as Taipan, Solana and Dogecoin, have fallen to varying degrees.

　　始于2023年的这一轮长期数字资产繁荣盛况，现在似乎逐渐退场，一些分析师对比特币ETF等加密货币关联资产的资金流入前景表示怀疑。CoinShares International Ltd.的最新数据显示，上周投资者们从比特币ETF等加密货币相关联的产品中撤出资金规模高达6亿美元，是3月份以来最庞大的撤资数字。

The long-term digital asset boom, which began in 2023, now seems to be retreating, with some analysts questioning the prospect of financial inflows of encrypted currency-related assets, such as the Bitcoin ETF. The latest data from CoinShares International Ltd. show that last week investors withdrew up to $600 million from products associated with encrypted currencies, such as the Bitcoin ETF, the largest withdrawal since March.

　　整体来看，美国顽固且粘性十足的通胀率导致交易员们降低了对美联储今年降息的预期，以及对于美联储长期“中性利率”的预期趋于上行，长期借贷成本上行对于加密货币等投机性质的投资前景构成巨大威胁，有可能长期对于加密货币估值施加压力。

Overall, the stubborn and sticky inflation rate in the United States has led traders to lower expectations for the Fed to lower interest rates this year, as well as to higher expectations for the Fed's long-term “neutral” interest rates, which pose a significant threat to speculative investment prospects, such as encrypted currencies, and may put pressure on the value of encrypted currencies over the long term.

　　美联储公布的最新利率“点阵图”中值目前显示，多数美联储官员预计2024年将仅降息一次，相比3月点阵图的预测整整少了两次，总计减少50个基点幅度。

The median of the latest interest rate published by the Federal Reserve is currently showing that most Federal Reserve officials are expected to reduce interest rates only once in 2024, a reduction of a total of 50 base-point ranges, two times less than the forecast for March.

　　此外，随着今年降息预期大幅减退，美联储官员们同步抬高2025年政策利率路径，他们对2025年底利率预期的中值从3.9%小幅抬高至4.1%，同时将长期政策利率预期的中值从2.6%提高至2.8%，这也意味着多数美联储官员更加认可“中性利率”正在抬高的现实。

In addition, with the expected sharp fall in interest rates this year, Federal Reserve officials simultaneously raised the 2025 policy interest rate path, raising the expected median interest rate from 3.9 per cent to 4.1 per cent at the end of 2025, while raising the expected median of long-term policy interest rates from 2.6 per cent to 2.8 per cent, which also means that most Federal Reserve officials are more receptive to the fact that “medium interest rates” are rising.

　　在本季度，股票和债券等传统资产的投资回报率远高于比特币这一热度席卷全球的新兴资产，这与截至3月份的三个月相比发生了大逆转，当时包括比特币在内的众多加密货币资产的表现明显优于股债等传统资产。

During the quarter, the investment return on traditional assets, such as equities and bonds, was much higher than the heat of Bitcoin, an emerging global asset, which was a major reversal from the three months up to March, when a large number of encrypted currency assets, including Bitcoin, performed significantly better than traditional assets, such as equity debt.

　　 BTC Markets Pty首席执行官Caroline Bowler表示:“比特币等加密货币越来越容易受到美联储利率预期等宏观因素的影响。”她补充表示，她对加密货币的长期投资前景仍持乐观态度。

The CEO of BTC Markets Pty, Caroline Bowler, stated that “encrypted currencies such as Bitcoin are increasingly vulnerable to macro-related factors such as the Fed's interest rate expectations.” She added that she remains optimistic about the long-term investment prospects for encrypted currencies.

　　新上市加密货币罕见受挫

　　整个加密市场都有明显的投资者胃口和风险偏好下降的迹象，其中包括对新型加密货币的需求。ZK代币来自一个在以太坊区块链上建立的备受吹捧的热门项目，在周一上市后暴跌了三分之一，这是一系列备受期待的加密货币发行中的最新一次发行，然而这一新代币的发行遭遇大幅抛售，对于新上市加密货币来说是非常罕见的事情。

Throughout the encryption market, there are clear signs of declining investor appetite and risk preferences, including the need for a new type of encrypted currency. ZK tokens are derived from a popular project built on the Etherno block chain, which plunged by one-third on Monday, the latest in a series of much-awaited circulations of encrypted currencies, yet the issuance of this new currency has been substantially discarded, which is very rare for newly listed encrypted currencies.

　　在韩国，一份当地的最新报告显示，下个月即将出台的证券交易新规定可能会迫使加密交易所减少可供投资者使用交易的加密货币数量。韩国长期以来可谓是小型加密货币资产(即所谓的山寨币)需求的核心引擎，该报告可能吓坏了一些加密货币交易员，促使他们纷纷抛售一些较冷门的加密货币资产。

In South Korea, a recent local report suggests that the new requirements for securities trading that will be introduced next month may force encryption exchanges to reduce the number of encrypted currencies available to investors. South Korea’s long-standing role as a core engine of demand for small encrypted monetary assets, known as the so-called mountain coins, may have deterred a number of encrypted currency traders, forcing them to sell colder ones.

　　但是值得注意的是，自2023年初以来，比特币交易价格已经翻了两番，并在今年3月创下73798美元的这一历史最高价位。在比特币ETF带来的庞大规模资金助力之下，不仅全球市值最高加密货币比特币的总计市值不断增长，以太坊等众多规模相对较小的加密货币市值也自今年以来不断扩张。

But it is worth noting that the price of the Bitcoin transaction has quadrupled since the beginning of 2023, with the historic peak of $73798 in March this year. Thanks to the massive financial support of the Bitcoin ETF, not only has the aggregate market value of the highest global market value of the encrypted currency bitcoin continued to grow, but the market value of a large number of relatively small encrypted currencies, such as the Taiku, has expanded since this year.

　　比特币以及以太坊等众多加密货币今年以来延续2023年涨势，且集体暴涨趋势胜过2023年，主要得益于市场对于美国首批上市交易的比特币ETF产品的爆炸式需求。然而，随着ETF资金流入规模在近日明显放缓，比特币价格最近有所降温，以太坊等规模较小的加密货币也出现价格向下调整趋势。

Bitcoin and numerous encrypted currencies, such as Taiyo, have been rising since this year for 2023, and collective surges have outpaced the 2023 trend, largely because of the market’s explosive demand for the first bitcoin ETF products traded in the US. However, as ETF inflows have slowed significantly in recent days, Bitcoin prices have recently cooled, and smaller encoded currencies, such as Taiku, have shown a downward trend in prices.

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