币市突发利空时正确操作的3个技术丨老金金融笔记 博鳌亚洲论坛今天发生的事情绝对是可以载入币圈的史册，主办方邀请了特型演员以主席的名义发表讲话。炒币以来，我们见到了黑客...

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博鳌亚洲论坛今天发生的事情绝对是可以载入币圈的史册，主办方邀请了特型演员以主席的名义发表讲话。

What happened today at the Bounty Asia Forum is definitely an historical record of currency circles, and the sponsors have invited special actors to address the Conference in the name of the President.

炒币以来，我们见到了黑客做空、警察查处做空、假消息做空、政策做空等各种做空方式，今天又见到了特型演员做空，真没有白活。

We have seen hackers, police officers, false information, policy, and all kinds of empty ways of doing things since the price of money, and today we have seen special actors doing nothing.

市场刚刚有抬头回暖的迹象，又被这个突发利空打压了下去，导致很多人又亏损惨重，心中默默问候了主办方全家。

The market has just shown signs of a return to warmth and has been crushed by this sudden windfall, which has caused many people to lose a lot of money and to greet the whole family of the sponsors in silence.

对于主办方就不多评论了，在我国做生意，还是要有一些敏感性，如果没有这点觉悟，以后出事也是迟早的事情。

There is little comment on the sponsors and there is still some sensitivity to doing business in our country, and it would have been sooner or later had it not been for that awareness.

话说回来，这种突然下跌我绝对是个很经典的一边倒突发利空行情，今天和大家探讨一下面对这种利空行情到底该怎么操作，才能规避损失。这里有三种操作方式分享一下：

By the way, I'm definitely a classic side of this sudden fall, and today explores with you exactly how to handle it in order to avoid the loss. Here are three ways to share it:

操作方式一

Operation 1

面对即将而来的利空行情，如果时消息得知的早，在行情下跌的初期，就果断的卖掉，后面把看好的币低价接回来就好了。

In the face of the impending boom, if the news comes in early, in the early stages of the fall, it will be sold decisively, and then it will be better to bring back the money that has been seen as low.

如果拖了一段时间没有卖，行情一直恶化下去，中间会一直一直纠结要不要卖。因为已经错过了最佳卖点，在中间再怎么做都是错的。

If it's not sold for a while, it's going to get worse. It's all wrong to do anything in the middle because it's missing the best.

这时候很容易会跟随人性去操作，这时候你心里想，我要是卖了还能收回来一点，要是不卖，眼看就要归零，所以很可能就卖了。

It's easy to follow humanity at a time when you think that if I sell, I can take back a little bit, and if I don't, it's zero, so it's probably sold.

今天这事，我们发现几乎事一边倒的谴责，大众情绪还是比较一致的，行业也都比较忌惮由此引发的政策连锁反应，而且这种消息传播力度还比较强，那就是一致性看空的行情，完全没有一点争议。

Today, we find almost one-sided condemnation, popular sentiment more uniform, industry more unbridled about the policy chain reactions that result from it, and the spread of this message is still relatively strong, that is, the uncontroversial act of unanimity, which is completely uncontroversial.

除了长线拿着不动的币种，短期持仓可直接换成USDT避险，在此之前也和私董会朋友分享过。

In addition to long lines with static currencies, short-term warehousing can be directly replaced by USDT for risk avoidance, which has previously been shared with private board friends.

操作方式二

Operational mode two

第二种操作方式，如果利空消息出来，又不确定利空消息会起到多大的效果，如果卖掉还真的有可能上涨，如果持有也有可能会亏损，那就可以选择期货合约来进行套期保值。

The second way of doing that, if the information comes out, it's not sure how much it's going to do, if it's sold, if it's actually going to rise, if it's held, and if it's going to lose, then

说到期货，大家想的是杠杆、爆仓、恶意做空，等等这些关键词，OKEX对期货的多空双爆让所有人谈期货色变，唯恐避之不及。

When it comes to maturities, you think about leverage, silos, bad intentions, and so on, OKEX's multi-empty double blast on futures allows everyone to talk about futures.

我也是反对大家玩杠杆的，尤其是新手。其实期货诞生之初，不是为了加杠杆所用，而是为了规避对冲风险。

I'm also against leveraging, especially the newcomers. In fact, the futures were born not to leverage, but to avoid the risk of hedges.

举个例子

Let me give you an example.

有位种土豆的老大爷每年生产100万斤土豆，但他碰到一个问题，土豆价格波动很厉害，有时候可以卖到10块一斤，这时候能赚很多钱，但有时候会降到1块一斤，他可能要亏本。

The boss with potatoes produces 1 million pounds of potatoes a year, but he has a problem with the volatility of potato prices, sometimes selling them to $10 a pound, making a lot of money at the time, but sometimes down to $1 a pound, and he may lose his money.

另外有一家卖薯条的连锁店，他专门制作薯条，当土豆价格高的时候，由于进货成本太高，他根本赚不到钱，当土豆价格很低的时候他又能赚很多。

There is also a chain of fries, which he specializes in making, and when potato prices are high, because of the high cost of imports, he can't make any money, and when potato prices are low, he can make a lot of money.

不过双方都不希望出现这种不可预料的价格波动，一年赚很多一年却亏的很厉害。那他们怎么做呢？

But both sides do not want this unanticipated price volatility to happen, and they lose a lot of money for many years a year. So what do they do?

现在假设守城季节准备到来，种土豆的大爷担心价格跌倒1块，此时他会暴亏。薯条店的却是，土豆价格可能涨倒10块，这时他们很难维持。

Now, assuming that the city watch season is ready, the potato grower is worried that the price will fall by one dollar, and he's going to lose it. But the potato shop is going to have 10 dollars, and it's going to be hard for them to keep it up.

一个很好的办法就是双方提前协商好，不管守城的时候市场价格时多少，他们都将以原定的价格进行交易。

A good solution would be for the two parties to agree in advance that, regardless of the market price at the time of the city watch, they would trade at the original price.

他们可以签定这样一份合约，合约规定连锁店在土豆收成后都以5块一斤的价格购买土豆，而老大爷可以以5块价格卖出土豆，这个价格下大爷都能赚到不错利润，而且可预测性很强，这样双方都达到了对冲风险的效果。

They can sign a contract under which a chain of stores can buy potatoes at a price of $5 a pound after the potato harvest, while the boss can sell them at a price of $5, which makes good profits and is highly predictable, so that both sides achieve a countervailing risk.

这种套期保值才是期货设计诞生的本意，那如果手里有持有现货，在不确定性的行情，不确定的利空到来的时候，就可以买入空单，如果涨上去了空单会把收益吃掉，如果下跌空单的盈利会填补现货的亏损，从而实现了套期保值。

This hedging is what the futures design was meant to be, and can buy blanks if there is a spot in hand, when uncertainty, uncertainty, interest comes, if the blanks rise and the profit will be eaten up, and if the profit from the blanks falls, it will cover the loss of the spot, thereby achieving hedging.

那有的朋友说，做期货不是容易爆仓吗？那是用杠杆的情况下，其实完全可以通过缩减保证金比例来规避杠杆。

That friend said, "Isn't futures easy to blow?" That's when leverage is used, and it's possible to avoid leverage by cutting the bond ratio.

假如持仓100万现货BTC，你手持100万现金，如果杠杆是20倍，那可以用5万元的保证金来开100万空单，手持100万现金，那你根本就不怕爆仓对不对。所以这就是不确定行情下，用期货套期保值的操作方法。

If you hold a warehouse of 1 million active BTC, you hold 1 million in cash, if you leverage 20 times the leverage, you can open a free bill of 1 million with a $50,000 bond and a million in cash, and you're not afraid to blow it up. So that's how you use futures hedges to keep it safe.

操作方式三

Operational Method III

第三种情况，如果能判断是确定性的下跌行情，就可以先空仓后小单空单来获利。今天这种拿伟人来做空的案例，大家一致都认为是应该强烈谴责的，并且担心会秋后算账毁了整个行业。

In the third case, if you can judge a certain decline, you can profit by emptying up a small list. Today’s case of taking a great man to the table, there is a consensus that it should be strongly condemned, and there is a fear that the whole industry will be destroyed in the fall.

那这就是比较强的一边倒式的利空，就可以开小仓来通过做空来获利了，一般一边倒式的利空行情还是比较少的。这里还是要重申一下我的观点，期货不等于杠杆。

So that's the more powerful one-sided advantage, and you can open a small warehouse to gain by doing it. There's less of a upside-down profit. Here's the point: futures are not leverage.

玩杠杆放大了收益的同时也放大了风险，中国投机界杠杆玩的厉害的大神曾经很多，但是现在坟头草都三米多高了，比如刘强。

Leveraging magnifies both the gains and the risks. The great gods of China's speculative world used to be many, but now they're more than three metres tall, like Liu Qiang.

以上就是在下跌行情和不确定行情里规避损失的办法。看似简单，但是要做到还是不容易的。这些都是非常实用的技术，比如套期保值能用好就能规避很多损失了，但90%的人都未必能理解其精髓。

That's the way to avoid loss in decline and uncertainty. It's simple, but it's not easy to do. These are very practical techniques.

现在行情不好，用时间多学习学习，条件允许就投投思慕。玩币研究院私董会内部针对会员，刚刚投过2018天王级项目RSK，现在还有一个孙正义投资项目的基石额度ulsee.com开放给私董会成员。

It's not a good time to learn, but it's a good time to think. The Money Academy's private board, which targets its members, has just voted on RSK for the Queens' 2018 project, and now has an ulsee.com, the cornerstone of Sun Justice's investment project, which is open to members of the board.

这些项目也是外面没有滴基石额度，都是刷脸刷资源搞来给咱们私董会兄弟们的福利。

These projects, too, have no dropstone lines outside, and they're just brushing the resources for the benefit of our P.I. Brothers.

关于私董会这块，上次有过介绍，绝对是一个站在币圈俯看整个行业的圈子。优质项目的额度也只是权益之一，具体可以扫码了解，我们在私董会等你。

With regard to the private board, there was an introduction last time, definitely a circle that looks down on the whole industry in the currency. The amount of quality projects is just one of the benefits, and it's clear that we'll be waiting for you at the board.

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